• EUR/JPY finds support at Ichimoku cloud bottom, trading capped at upper edge at 161.45.
• Bearish momentum noted; faces resistance at 161.00 and 50-day SMA at 161.75.
• Decline below Ichimoku cloud could test deeper supports at 156.16 and 154.39.

The EUR/JPY bottomed near 159.69 and rose past 160.50 on Friday after registering two consecutive days of losses as risk appetite deteriorated. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 160.82, up 0.69%.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY trades sideways, capped on the downside by the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) near the daily low and peaked at the top of the Kumo at 161.45.

Although momentum is slightly bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below its neutral level, sellers must push the EUR/JPG beneath the bottom of the kumo toward 159.00.

A breach of the latter will exacerbate a December 3 swing low test of 156.16. On further weakness, 156.00 is up next, followed by the August 5 swing low of 154.39.

On the upside, the first resistance is 161.00, the top of the range at 161.45, and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 161.75. Once surpassed the next stoup would be the 162.00 mark.

EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily

Image © Adobe Images

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate will end the year higher, according to the consensus. However, analysts at HSBC reckon this is way too optimistic.

Investment bank forecasters reckon the current trend of GBP/USD weakness will ultimately run its course and a decisive turnaround will see the pair track higher again through the second half of the year.

An overvalued dollar is expected to reach an exhaustion point, while memories of GBP outperformance in 2023 and 2024 remain strong in analysts’ minds, leading them to project more of the same in 2025. (For a look at the consensus forecasts taken around the turn of the year, see here.)

However, HSBC analyst Daragh Maher says the GBP setup is increasingly dovish, and the consensus will be disappointed.

Following news that UK retail sales shrank in December, defying expectations for expansion, the Pound extended its 2025 decline against the Dollar to 1.2161. “Another day, and another dovish nugget for GBP to digest,” opines Maher.

He says there are clear structural issues now in play for the currency:

“This time around it was softer than expected UK retail sales. While softer than expected UK inflation carried ambiguous implications for GBP as a currency caught between structural fiscal concerns and cyclical unease, weaker activity signals are simply negative.”

Pound Sterling has lost 4% of its value against the U.S. Dollar already in 2025 as a multi-month downtrend extends steadily to the next big round number target of 1.20.

Above: Rate cut bets are growing, but the market isn’t yet even priced for three cuts this year, suggesting there is ample scope to grow. Image courtesy of Lloyds Bank.

The case is building for the Bank of England to accelerate the pace it cuts interest rate cuts, but the problem for GBP is that the market is still behind the curve.

“November GDP data confirmed that the economy is stagnating. Today’s unexpected drop in retail sales during December
suggests little respite. In the space of two weeks, the market probability of a 6 February BoE rate cut has gone from 60% to over 90%. But we suspect there is scope for a further dovish reappraisal with not even three 25bp cuts fully priced in,” notes Maher.

British Pound outperformance in 2024 was driven by an expectation that the Bank of England would cut rates at a slower pace than other major central banks amidst a robust economy and still-elevated inflation.

“A consensus among FX forecasters, taken only a week ago when spot GBP-USD was 1.2150, is that it will finish the year at 1.26. This seems notably optimistic to us,” notes Maher.

For a look at the consensus forecasts taken around the turn of the year, see here.

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Short-term Trade Levels

• USD/JPY breaks January opening-range lows- threatens deeper correction within September uptrend
• USD/JPY support in view ahead of Trump Inauguration, BoJ rate decision
• Resistance 156.26, 157.19, 157.89-158.45 (key)- Support 154.34, 152.80s (key), 151.50/95

The US Dollar was down more than 1.7% against the Japanese Yen at the lows off the week with USD/JPY threatening a break of a multi-week range. The immediate focus is on this pullback with multi-month uptrend support in view ahead of the extended holiday break. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts heading into the Presidential Inauguration and the BoJ next week.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that a rebound off technical support in USD/JPY was, “testing the first major resistance hurdle- looking for possible inflection here. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening range (149.60-151.99) for guidance with the near-term recovery vulnerable while below the 200-day moving average.”

USD/JPY broke through resistance the following day with the rally extending nearly 6.9% off the December lows into key resistance at 157.89-158.45. A break of the January opening-range yesterday has already fallen more than 2.4% off the monthly high and the immediate focus is on this pullback towards uptrend support.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of a proposed descending pitchfork extending off the monthly high with price bounding off the median-line into the close of the week. Initial resistance is being tested now at the November high-close around 156.26 with near-term bearish invalidation set to the objective monthly / yearly open at 157.19. Ultimately, a breach /close above 158.45 is needed to mark uptrend resumption / fuel the next major leg of the advance towards the April high at 160.21.

Initial support rests with the November high-day close (HDC) / 23.6% retracement of the September advance at 154.32/34 and is backed by the lower parallel / 200-day moving average around 152.80s- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Ultimately, a break / close below the 38.2% retracement / 2022 & 2023 highs at 151.50/95 would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last week / a lager trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: A break of the January opening-range threatens a deeper pullback within the multi-month advance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 200-day moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 158.45 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we are heading into an extended holiday weekend with the inauguration of President Trump and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision on tap next week. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

While the major indices rallied, FX markets were fairly contained in the first half of Friday’s session, with the EUR/USD trading flat around the 1.03 handle. Other euro crosses were all higher as risk appetite improved further with some of the major European indices such as the German DAX and UK’s FTSE 100 hitting new record highs. The improvement in sentiment has been driven this week by a sharp drop in global bond yields, owing to weaker-than-expected inflation data from both the US and UK. We also had some surprisingly strong Chinese data overnight, which helped to reduce fears about China’s economy. What’s more, the ceasefire in Gaza has also helped to soothe investor concerns. But with Trump set to take office on Monday, we could see the return of heightened volatility again. After all, he has promised implementing drastic policies from day one. So, the short-term EUR/USD forecast is subject to increased risks from Trump’s unexpected

Trump inauguration and PBOC rate decision (Monday)

The People’s Bank of China will set the 1- and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) hours before Donald Trump officially takes office. This is a benchmark lending rate to influence short-term interest rates as part of its monetary policy strategy. After months of sub-par growth, and negative inflation, China has been stuck in a deflationary environment. Throughout last year, the PBOC and China’s government were quite busy unleashing various stimulus measures to revive the economy. Judging by the latest data released overnight, it seems like efforts paid some dividends. GDP grew 5.4% in the final quarter of 2024 compared to a year earlier, exceeding analysts’ expectations and marking the fastest pace of growth in 6 quarters. Industrial production and retail sales also beat. The key takeaway point is that China met its growth objective. But with Trump’s return, we could see Chinese exports suffer amid raised tariffs in the coming months and so volatility could return to markets. However, at this meeting, the PBOC may decide against increasing its stimulus measures, and keep rates on hold. But it may still surprise given the ongoing slump in the stock market, yuan and its bond yields.

Global PMIs could impact EUR/USD forecast

The PMI data will be released on Friday, January 24, from around the world. Perhaps most important to the EUR/USD forecast will be those from the Eurozone. Global growth concerns have been among factors behind the softness in some of the major currencies such as the euro, pound and yuan. The Purchasing Manager’s Indices are leading indicators of economic health. The rationale is that businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold some of the most current insights into the company’s view of the economy. Therefore, if we see some improvement, it should at least help to relief some selling pressure on the single currency.

EUR/USD technical analysis

Source: TradingView.com

The near-term technical EUR/USD forecast remains tilted to the downside. The question remains whether the pair will test and possibly break below the parity (1.000) level in the coming weeks. So far, the 1.0200 level has provided decent support.

Meanwhile, in terms of resistance levels to watch, 1.0300-1.0340 now marks a key resistance zone. This area had previously served as support, so we may see some pressure come back into the market from around this zone. The bearish trend line comes in just above this zone, too. While below these levels, the path of least resistance on the EUR/USD remains to the downside. A potential break above here would be a bullish development – we will cross that bridge if and when we get there.

— Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

The GBPJPY pair continued to form negative trades since yesterday, to notice approaching the target at 189.30 that forms the key to confirm the continuation of the negativity for the upcoming period.

Note that getting continuous negative momentum by the major indicators will ease the mission to break the current obstacle, to keep our bearish overview to target 188.10 level followed by reaching the major support at 186.90, while breaching 191.40 will postpone the decline and form correctional bullish trades on the near-term and medium-term basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 188.10 and 190.70

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURJPY pair ended yesterday by providing negative close below 160.15 level, to provide new negative signal that allows us to suggest more negative attempts to target 159.10 followed by reaching 157.85 on the medium-term basis.

Also, 160.85 level forms additional barrier, and the major indicators continue to provide the negative momentum, to support the negative overview and wait to touch the previously suggested negative stations.

The expected trading range for today is between 159.10 and 160.70

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURJPY pair ended yesterday by providing negative close below 160.15 level, to provide new negative signal that allows us to suggest more negative attempts to target 159.10 followed by reaching 157.85 on the medium-term basis.

Also, 160.85 level forms additional barrier, and the major indicators continue to provide the negative momentum, to support the negative overview and wait to touch the previously suggested negative stations.

The expected trading range for today is between 159.10 and 160.70

Trend forecast: Bearish

Gold price shows some slight bearish bias to head towards potential test to 2700.00$ barrier, waiting to get positive motive that push the price to resume the main bullish wave, which its targets begin by surpassing 2730.00$ to confirm opening the way to head towards 2790.00$.

On the other hand, we should note that breaking 2680.00$ will stop the bullish wave and force the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 2700.00$ support and 2740.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

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The EURUSD price continues to fluctuate within tight range, and still around the EMA50, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly, waiting to motivate the price to resume the expected bearish trend for the upcoming period, which its targets begin by breaking 1.0220$ to open the way to head towards 1.0100$.

We remind you that breaching 1.0325$ will stop the negative scenario to push the price towards starting bullish correction on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0210$ support and 1.0365$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish