Platinum price lost the positive momentum yesterday to force it to form temporary negative rebound and notice its stability near the additional support 935.00$, to settle above it and reinforce the chances of renewing the bullish attempts again.
Also, 920.00 level continues to form major support against the current trades, allowing us to wait to gather the positive momentum again to manage to surpass the MA55 at 955.00$ followed by extending trades towards the next main target at 983.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 930.00$ and 955.00$
The EURUSD price provided additional positive trades yesterday to test the EMA50, noticing that stochastic continues to lose the positive momentum, which supports the chances of bouncing bearishly to resume the main bearish trend, waiting to break 1.0220$ level to confirm rallying towards 1.0100$ as a next main target.
Holding below 1.0325$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve more gains that reach 1.0455$ as a next positive station.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0210$ support and 1.0360$ resistance
The EURUSD price provided additional positive trades yesterday to test the EMA50, noticing that stochastic continues to lose the positive momentum, which supports the chances of bouncing bearishly to resume the main bearish trend, waiting to break 1.0220$ level to confirm rallying towards 1.0100$ as a next main target.
Holding below 1.0325$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve more gains that reach 1.0455$ as a next positive station.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0210$ support and 1.0360$ resistance
During my daily analysis of the yen related pairs, it’s obvious that the market has initially had people running to the Japanese yen, only to turn around and show signs of life again in multiple currencies.
This is even true with the British pound, which got absolutely crushed during the trading session, and I think will continue to be a bit of a laggard as long as the British budgetary concerns remain.
Furthermore, were now starting to see a lot of noise with the Labour Party possibly being embroiled in a ton of scandals, so this is starting to play out in the bond markets in the United Kingdom, as the government of the United Kingdom seemingly wants to do everything it can to smash any optimism or desire of foreigners to get involved in the area.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this GBP/JPY pair is quite interesting, considering that the market has just hit a major floor, and bounced quite significantly. Ultimately, I do think that this pair could recover, but we are going to need to see the British pound recover against the US dollar as well. I don’t know if that happens, but we have fallen so hard that it does make a certain amount of sense that we recover here. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to bounce around the ¥190 level if we do fall, because I think it’s an area that has been extraordinarily important. However, with the mess that the United Kingdom is currently in, I think that if you are looking to short the Japanese yen, it’s probably easier to do it with other currencies.
If we were to break down below the ¥190 level, then we could go looking to the ¥189 level, perhaps even the ¥185 level after that. While there is a short-term “play the bounce” type of trade here, you have to be extraordinarily nimble to be able to profit from this as I think you are certainly going to find easier ways to short the Japanese yen.
GBP/USD has recorded six consecutive sessions of declines, approaching the key support at 1.21779, a level not seen since 2023.
UK 10-year bond yields have surged to 4.9%, adding short-term pressure on the pound.
Over the last five sessions, the pound has lost enough ground to push the GBP/USD down by approximately 3%. The price is now at a critical support level, primarily due to growing uncertainty stemming from the large-scale bond sell-off in the United Kingdom.
Debt Increase
The UK has experienced a significant sell-off of fixed-income securities, attributed to slow economic growth and high levels of government debt. As a result, 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to the price of the bonds themselves, have climbed to 4.94%, a level not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Source: TradingEconomics
Although higher bond yields might seem attractive for international investment, the current context paints a different picture. High yields are perceived as a hindrance to controlling the government’s growing debt levels, which could destabilize plans announced in October 2024 involving tax increases and debt strategies aimed at boosting stable economic growth.
In this scenario, the UK government is not directly responsible for the rising borrowing costs (increased government bond yields), but the situation could further erode confidence in the pound, exerting additional bearish pressure on the GBP/USD. For now, the market views the dollar as a safer option compared to the debt issues plaguing the UK.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD has logged six consecutive sessions of losses, reflecting the pound’s significant weakness. The bearish trend has notably accelerated in the short term.
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bearish Channel: The pair is currently following a clearly defined bearish channel since the September 2024 highs. The strong selling trend has pushed the price to the lower boundary of the channel. If this level is breached, imbalances between supply and demand could trigger temporary bullish corrections.
RSI Oversold: The RSI has fallen below the 30 level, signaling an oversold condition in the market. This could indicate that the bearish trend has been too steep in the short term, increasing the likelihood of bullish corrections around the current support zone.
Key Levels:
1.21779: The most important support level, corresponding to levels of indecision in 2023 and aligned with the lower boundary of the current bearish channel. Sustained oscillations below this level would reinforce the bearish outlook for the coming sessions, intensifying the downtrend on the chart.
1.25240: The nearest resistance, located in a neutral zone identified in December 2024 and aligned with the upper boundary of the bearish trendline. Bullish movements toward this area could jeopardize the continuation of the bearish channel and provide an opportunity for a new buying phase in GBP/USD.
In my daily analysis of major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair has caught my attention as we fell yet again during the Monday session.
In fact, we slammed into the crucial 1.21 level, an area that was a major swing low previously, and therefore could be an area of interest.
After all, a certain amount of “market memory” should be found here, and so far, the reaction has been rather strong.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this GBP/USD pair is obviously horrible, but I think you’ve got a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we are oversold at the moment. I think that’s probably the case, and therefore this bounce will make a certain amount of sense, however, I do not like the idea of “fishing for a bottom” here, despite the fact that most technical analyst would suggest this is a real possibility.
This is mainly due to the fact that the market is driven by questions about the British ability to get a reasonable budget past, and of course the whole idea that the Federal Reserve is light years away from doing anything remotely close to loosening monetary policy. After all, traders had initially thought that the Federal Reserve is going to cut multiple times in 2025, but the reality is that they will not be able to, and therefore I think you’ve got to look at this as a market that is pricing that in. However, we had gotten to far to the downside and I think it’s only a matter of time before we get a bit of a bounce. That bounce should end up being thought of as a “buying opportunity for US dollars.” The 1.2350 level is an area that I would love to start shorting from, but we will have to wait and see if we can even get that far to the upside.
The alternative is that we break down below the 1.21 level and then go looking to the 1.20 level after that. The 1.20 level is obviously a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and I do think it’s an area that we will eventually try to get to. That being said, over the last 4 sessions, we have dropped roughly 400 pips, and a bounce would make a certain amount of sense. Look for exhaustion to take advantage of.
The EURUSD price couldn’t manage to hold for long time below 1.0220$, to trade positively and attempts to recover, noticing that the EMA50 forms negative pressure that prevents the price from achieving more rise, while stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly.
Therefore, these factors encourage us to suggest the return to decline in the upcoming sessions, waiting to confirm breaking 1.0220$ to open the way to head towards 1.0100$ as a next main target, noting that breaching 1.0325$ will stop the bearish wave and lead the price to start bullish correction on the intraday basis.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0165$ support and 1.0320$ resistance
The EURUSD price fluctuates around 1.0265$ level, noticing that stochastic reaches the overbought areas, waiting to motivate the price to decline again, to keep the bearish trend suggested for today unless breaching 1.0325$ and holding above it, noting that our targets begin by breaking 1.0220$ to open the way to head towards 1.0100$ as a next negative station.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0165$ support and 1.0320$ resistance
During my daily analysis of the major currency pairs, the first thing that I look to is the EUR/USD pair, as we have plunged below the 1.02 level during the trading session.
That being said, I do think that a bounce is very likely, just due to the fact that we are oversold.
However, I do not expect this to be a situation where you can just simply short the market and forget about it, because I believe that the volatility will probably only pick up, and therefore it makes the ability to be nimble crucial when it comes to this currency pair.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this EUR/USD pair is extraordinarily dour, but the word “oversold” cannot be ignored. Ultimately, I think that the euro continues to fall in probably goes looking to the parity level given enough time, but it’s a bit difficult to jump into this market and start shorting heavily. Any bounce at this point in time would look very much like a selling opportunity at the first signs of exhaustion. This is a market that I have no interest in buying, and with that being the case I think you have to look at this as a scenario where we are looking at the 1.03 level as a potential ceiling, and then after that the 1.0450 level. Either one of those areas could be excellent shorting opportunities if we show signs of exhaustion.
On the other hand, if we simply fall from here, then I think it’s probably going to be a move to the parity level rather quickly. The parity level obviously will attract a lot of attention, but at the end of the day we had been there before, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where a lot of people will simply take profit in that area as well. I have no scenario in which I’m willing to buy the euro at this point, at least not with the 10 year yield in America being as high as it is.
Risk appetite increased after China announced more stimulus measures.
All eyes are now on US inflation figures.
The pound remained fragile due to the recent bond market rout.
The GBP/USD price analysis shows some relief for the pound as market participants await crucial US inflation data. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains clouded as traders worry about UK finances amid turmoil in the bond market.
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The dollar eased slightly at the start of a new week. Risk appetite increased after China announced more measures to support its weak economy and the yuan. However, dollar bulls remain strong after the recent upbeat jobs report. Market participants expect the Fed to lower borrowing costs by 30-bps this year. This is a drop from the 50-bps expected at the start of the year.
All eyes are now on US inflation figures, which will continue shaping the outlook for rate cuts. Economists expect consumer inflation to increase by 0.3%, similar to the previous reading. At the same time, they expect the annual figure to hold at 2.6%. A bigger-than-expected figure will lower the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this year. On the other hand, a downbeat report might bring back bets for two rate cuts this year. However, before the CPI report, traders will focus on wholesale inflation.
Elsewhere, the pound remained fragile due to the recent bond market rout. Market participants worry that the yield rally will force the government to adjust fiscal policy, hurting the economy.
GBP/USD key events today
GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears aim for a new low in the downtrend
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is dropping after retesting the 1.2250 key level. Bears have maintained a solid decline since the price broke below the 1.2400 support level. However, the downtrend paused at the 1.2102 level. Nevertheless, the bearish bias remains strong since the price still trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory.
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Furthermore, if bears are ready to resume the downtrend, the price will soon break below the 1.2102 level to make a lower low. However, if the level holds firm, GBP/USD will make a double bottom, which could lead to a bullish reversal. The trend will only change when the price breaks above the SMA and the RSI above 50.
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