Created on March 31, 2025

• The British pound continues to go back and forth as we have seen a lot of noise in the currency markets right now and a lot of sideways action by the time you take everything into account.
• The British pound has been a little bit stronger than many other currencies as it has outperformed.
• Well, probably for the last two years against the US dollar, even though it fell, it fell less than other currencies like the euro, for example.

Now we find ourselves digesting a massive move higher as we have been going sideways for a couple of weeks. The 1.30 level above is a barrier while the 1.29 level underneath is support. We recently had the so-called Golden Cross and therefore longer term traders will assume this is a bullish market.

On a Move Higher

If we can break above the 1.3050 level, then I think it’s very likely that the British pound has much further to go, perhaps as high as 1.34. On a breakdown below the 1.2875 level, then we could see the market drop down to the 1.2750 level, possibly even the 200-day EMA. In general, I think this is a market that continues to be very noisy, but the British pound is a stronger performer in general terms than the US dollar against other currencies.

So, I think it probably has more of a lean to the upside in the short term. We’ll just have to wait and see whether or not that continues here. In that situation, the market will likely to be one that outperform other currencies against the US dollar. The market will continue to pay close attention to risk appetite for currencies outside of the US, and there is a high likelihood that buyers will eventually show up again.

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USD/JPY price kept falling in latest intraday trading, thus finishing the negative harmonic Gartley pattern as we expected, and breaching the support of an ascending correctional price channel that guided latest short-term trading, while also trespassing the support of the 50-candle SMA, reinforcing negative pressure on upcoming trading, with negative signals emerging from the Stochastic despite reaching oversold levels.

USD/JPY price kept falling in latest intraday trading, thus finishing the negative harmonic Gartley pattern as we expected, and breaching the support of an ascending correctional price channel that guided latest short-term trading, while also trespassing the support of the 50-candle SMA, reinforcing negative pressure on upcoming trading, with negative signals emerging from the Stochastic despite reaching oversold levels.

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.

Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.

Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.

It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.

Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

Created on March 28, 2025

• The euro initially pulled back a bit from the 200 day EMA during the trading session on Thursday only to turn around and rally against the Japanese yen.
• The 200 day EMA is currently sitting just below the 162 yen level which is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to.
• If we were to break down blow there, then I think you have a very real possibility of a drop to the 160 yen level, which is also backed up by the 50 day EMA as well as the fact that we’ve seen a lot of noise back and forth in this market.

On a Move Higher

To the upside, have the 165 yen level, which offers a bit of a ceiling. But if we were to break above there, then I think you do see the Japanese yen get absolutely hammered, probably against multiple other currencies, not just this one. A breakdown below the 160 yen level means that the yen is starting to strengthen against probably most currencies. And we could drop down to the 155 yen level. This is an area that has been very important for some time and should continue to be.

The size of the candlestick is pretty impressive, but I do recognize that there is a lot of noise above that you will have to deal with. So therefore, I do think that waiting for short-term pullbacks could be a nice buying opportunity and probably the way to go with this market. I have no interest in shorting it, at least not until we break down below the 160 yen level, which is something that would be somewhat difficult to do in this short-term environment. This is a market that will continue to be very choppy to say the least.

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March 28, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Today: GBP/EUR Rate “Subdued” amid Trump Tariff Threats

The Pound was rangebound on Thursday following US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement.

At the time of writing, the Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trading at around €1.1992, virtually unchanged from Wednesday’s opening levels.

On Thursday, the Euro (EUR) wavered against most of its major counterparts.

While it strengthened against some currencies, it weakened against others, even though the economic calendar was relatively quiet.

Despite the lack of significant data releases, the Euro managed to gain ground against several of its peers following US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement.

On Wednesday, Trump declared a 25% tariff on all non-American cars, which led to a weakening of the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, allowing the Euro to benefit from its inverse relationship with USD.

However, concerns about potential additional tariffs on the Eurozone likely limited the Euro’s upward momentum and caused it to decline against several other currencies.

On Thursday, the Pound (GBP) traded within a narrow range against most of its major counterparts, following the Spring Statement on Wednesday.

The budget included several spending cuts and a substantial downgrade of the UK’s growth forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which revised the projection from 2% to 1% for 2025.

Despite the Pound recovering most of its losses on Thursday, GBP exchange rates were unable to gain ground due to concerns over Trump’s tariff announcement on cars, which sparked fears about the future economic health of the UK.

Looking ahead to Friday, the primary driver of movement for the Pound Euro exchange rate will likely be several key economic releases from both the UK and the Eurozone.

For the Pound, the UK is set to release its February retail sales data, where the index is forecast to drop from a previous reading of 1.7% to -0.3%.

If the data meets these expectations, it could put downward pressure on GBP exchange rates, potentially closing the week on a weaker note.

On the Euro side, Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, will publish its latest GfK consumer confidence index and jobs data.

Additionally, the Eurozone is expected to release its latest economic sentiment reading.

Any negative surprises from these reports could introduce fresh headwinds for the Euro, impacting its performance against the Pound and other major currencies.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

• GBP/USD trades in a tight range near 1.2950 after posting gains on Thursday.
• Retail Sales in the UK rose at a stronger pace than expected in February.
• February PCE inflation data from the US will be scrutinized by market participants.

GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and closed in positive territory on Thursday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase near 1.2950 in the European session on Friday as markets await the next key data release from the US.

The broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness helped GBP/USD gain traction on Thursday as the auto tariffs announcement by US President Donald Trump revived concerns over an economic slowdown.

Early Friday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales rose by 1% on a monthly basis in February. This reading followed the 1.4% increase (revised from 1.7%) recorded in January and came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.3%.

Although the upbeat UK data helped Pound Sterling find demand with the immediate reaction, the risk-averse market atmosphere seems to be making it difficult for the pair to stretch higher. As of writing, US stock index futures were losing between 0.2% and 0.4% on the day.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, for February. On a monthly basis, the core PCE Price Index is forecast to rise by 0.3%. A stronger-than-expected increase could support the USD with the immediate reaction and cause GBP/USD to stretch lower heading into the weekend. On the flip side, a soft reading of 0.1%, or lower, could help the pair stretch higher. Unless the risk mood improves, however, the pair’s upside is likely to remain capped.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD manages to hold above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays slightly above 50, reflecting a lack of bearish momentum.

On the downside, 1.2930 (20-day SMA) aligns as immediate support before 1.2900 (lower limit of the ascending regression channel) and 1.2800 (200-day SMA). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.3000 (static level, round level) and 1.3040 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

The USD/JPY pair edged lower in latest intraday trading, after the pivotal resistance of 150.95 held on, especially as the price finished a negative harmonic pattern there, the Gartley pattern, with negative signals emerging from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels.

It comes as the price trades within an upward correctional price channel that guided recent short-term trading.

The EUR/USD pair settled higher in latest intraday trading and retested the pivotal resistance of $1.0820, which represents the neckline of a negative technical pattern that’s forming in the short term, the Double Top pattern, which is decisive in determining the upcoming direction.

Despite the latest gains, the price is still dominated by a downward correctional trend as it continues to trade below the 50-candle SMA, with selling pressures bolstered even further by a forming negative divergence in the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels compared to the price’s movements, sending out negative signals.

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.

Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.

Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.

It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.

Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.