Created on March 24, 2025

• For a short period, the bulls succeeded in pushing the USD/JPY currency pair towards the 150.00 psychological resistance level, which would support the bulls’ control over the trend, but the bulls did not find more momentum.
• Therefore, the USD/JPY pair moved downwards again towards the 148.18 support level and closed the week’s trading stable around the 149.30 level.
• Recently, the currency pair reacted to signals from global central bank officials regarding tightening or not, in addition to the reaction to the expansion of US trade wars.

The Path of US Tariffs

On April 2, 2025, the United States plans to implement a series of reciprocal tariffs aimed at aligning US import duties with those imposed by its trading partners. For example, if a country imposes a 20% tariff on US goods, the US will retaliate with a similar 20% tariff on imports from that country.

However, Trump also stated that he will impose tariffs on countries that impose a value-added tax – which is equivalent to sales tax in the US. It is clear that VAT is not an import tax, as it does not discriminate against domestic or foreign products and services. The fact that this falls within a specific scope indicates that Trump is looking to impose large tariffs on a range of packages to increase revenue for the US Treasury in his attempt to reduce the country’s growing deficit.

Trading Tips:

Be cautious as the USD/JPY pair is affected by several factors, and the upward reversal still has a lot of work to do to confirm it.

US Stock Markets Attempt to Recover Losses

During the last trading session of the past week and through stock trading companies’ platforms, US stock indices on Wall Street shook off a weak start and closed slightly higher, ending a four-week losing streak. According to trading, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.1%. The index ended the week with gains of 0.5%. It is still down 4.8% so far this month. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved slight gains of 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.5%.

According to performance, technology stocks, which were the heaviest in the market at the start of trading, rebounded to recover a large portion of the declines in other sectors of the S&P 500. This sector has been the focus of most of the intense selloffs the market has seen recently, reversing its gains that led the market during the previous year. These stocks are among the most valuable on Wall Street and have significant impacts on market performance.

According to stock prices, Apple shares rose about 2%, while Microsoft shares rose 1.1%. Nvidia, a major technology company, fell 0.7%. Meanwhile, Micron Technology shares fell 8% to record the largest decline among S&P 500 stocks.

In general, US stocks have been declining steadily for weeks due to uncertainty about the direction of the US economy. The trade war between the US and its major trading partners threatens to exacerbate inflation and harm consumers and businesses alike. Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, and tariffs could hinder the Fed’s efforts to lower the inflation rate.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

According to the daily chart performance, the general trend for the USD/JPY currency pair is still at the beginning of an upward reversal. As we mentioned before, moving above the 150.00 psychological resistance will motivate the bulls to move strongly upward. The next peaks on that time frame will be 150.90, 151.70, and 152.60, respectively. Conversely, and on the same time frame, the 147.70 support level will remain the most important for a new control of the bears and the evaporation of recent upward hopes.

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Created on March 24, 2025

• The recent selloffs experienced by the GBP/USD currency pair did not take it out of the upward channel that was recently formed and supported the pair’s move towards the 1.3015 resistance level, the highest for the pair in more than four months.
• The recent selling losses did not exceed the 1.2888 level before closing the week’s trading stable around the 1.2916 level.
• As we mentioned before, the 1.3000 psychological resistance will remain the most important for bulls to control and prepare for stronger upward breakouts.

Bank of England Cautious in Making Any Changes

Last week, the Bank of England kept the main interest rate in Britain unchanged at 4.50%, despite weak British economic growth and the country facing further uncertainty in light of the tariff policies approved by the Trump administration in the United States. In general, the decision of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee was widely expected and came a day after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.

The meeting minutes showed that eight members voted to keep the policy unchanged, with one member supporting a quarter-percentage-point cut. The interest rate-setting committee reduced the Bank of England’s main interest rate from its 16-year high of 5.25% by a quarter-percentage-point on three occasions since last August, the most recent being in February, after inflation fell from its multi-decade highs, which exceeded 10%, reached in the wake of the sharp rise in energy prices following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

However, UK inflation, at 3%, remains above the Bank’s 2% target and is expected to rise further in the coming months, even without taking into account any tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Many economists believe it could rise to 4% in the coming months, as companies raise prices due to the large increase in the minimum wage and higher payroll taxes. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated, “There is considerable economic uncertainty at the moment. We continue to believe that interest rates are on a gradual downward trajectory, but we have kept them at 4.5% so far.”

In general, if policymakers continue their recent gradual approach, another cut is likely in May, when they will see the bank’s latest economic forecasts. Bailey added that rate-setters “will closely monitor the development of global and domestic economies” and that whatever happens, “it is our duty to ensure that inflation remains low and stable.”

Trading Tips:

The Pound Sterling is still in a strong and good position compared to other European currencies, as Britain avoiding US tariffs will support the Pound’s gains against other major currencies.

The British economy, the sixth largest in the world, achieved modest growth of 0.1% in the last quarter, a very disappointing result for the new Labor Party government, which made boosting growth its primary economic policy. Since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, British economic growth has performed significantly below its long-term average.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the daily chart performance, and as we mentioned before, the 1.3000 psychological resistance will remain the most important for the upward reversal of the GBP/USD pair, which is closest to the level. Technically, the current upward trend will not be breached without the bears moving the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.2860 and 1.2745 support levels, respectively. So far, the direction of the technical indicators, the RSI and MACD, is upward. The GBP/USD pair will react today to the announcement of the PMI readings for the manufacturing and services sectors for both Britain and the United States, followed by new statements from the Governor of the Bank of England. Not to mention the extent of investors’ risk appetite.

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• The USD/CAD forecast shows caution ahead of more US tariffs.

• Data on Friday revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada.

• Experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs.

The USD/CAD forecast shows caution as market participants await clarity on Trump’s next tariff moves. The Canadian dollar ended last week higher but remains vulnerable as traders prepare for a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting in April. Meanwhile, experts believe the dollar might rebound with more tariffs, supporting Treasury yields.

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The loonie fell on Friday after data revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada. Retail sales dropped by 0.6% compared to estimates of a 0.4% decline. The poor report increased expectations of more Bank of Canada rate cuts. At the same time, uncertainty about looming Trump tariffs weighed on the Canadian dollar last week. Trump suspended a 25% tariff on Canada until April. With the start date looming, the outlook for Canada’s economy is dimming. 

However, there was some relief for Canada’s currency as Wall Street rebounded amid hopes of a softer tariff stance. Trump said he might be open to some flexibility on tariffs. 

On the other hand, experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs. Last week, the greenback rebounded after the Fed meeting, which revealed caution among policymakers. More tariffs will likely support Treasury yields, allowing the dollar to recover.

USD/CAD key events today

• Flash Manufacturing PMI
• Flash Services PMI

USD/CAD technical forecast: Price pauses near the 30-SMA support

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is facing the 30-SMA line after finding resistance at the 1.4400 resistance level. However, bulls are still in the lead because the price trades slightly above the SMA. 

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On a larger scale, the price is trading in a range between the 1.4275 support and the 1.4525 resistance levels. Moreover, the range has a strong midpoint at the 1.4400 key level. USD/CAD recently retested the range support, which held firm. After this, the price broke above the SMA but paused at the range midpoint. 

If the price breaks below the SMA, bears will make another attempt at the range support. A breakout will signal the start of a bearish trend. On the other hand, bulls might return to push the price off the 30-SMA and above the 1.4400 resistance. This would allow a retest of the range resistance.

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Trade Policy Uncertainty Limits Dollar Upside

Despite recent hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who pointed to a strong labor market and inflation nearing target, the dollar is struggling to maintain momentum. Powell’s remarks reinforced the Fed’s cautious tone but did little to lift the dollar amid conflicting policy signals.

President Trump’s tariff policy remains a source of uncertainty. Earlier this month, his administration proposed imposing significant fees on China-linked shipping, a move that has disrupted supply chains and pressured key U.S. sectors, including agriculture and energy.

Investors are now waiting to see if these trade stances soften following reports of renewed talks with Chinese officials.

Geopolitical Talks Ease Tensions, but Dollar Remains Vulnerable

Geopolitical developments have offered some support to risk sentiment, but not enough to drive sustained strength in the dollar. Over the weekend, U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Riyadh, with the Biden administration pushing for a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict.

Further discussions between U.S. and Russian representatives are expected later today. While these talks reduce short-term geopolitical risk, the dollar remains under pressure amid persistent concerns around trade policy and global economic growth.

Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. PMI readings and a scheduled speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 6:00 PM GMT for further direction.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced fluctuating intraday trading in continuous attempts to find an upward base that provides the necessary positive momentum for recovery. In these attempts, it relied on a strong support wall, namely its 50-period simple moving average, which contributed to the formation of positive candles indicating an imminent recovery. This scenario is further reinforced by the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index after it reached extremely oversold levels, along with the price trading along an ascending corrective trendline.

Our outlook remains positive for a rise in Bitcoin’s price in the upcoming intraday sessions, provided that the support level at $82,000 holds, so as to target the main resistance level at $90,000.

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar (NZD/USD) fell in its recent intraday trading, breaking out of an ascending price channel that had previously bounded its short-term trading, thereby signaling the continuation of that bearish corrective wave, especially with the negative pressure from the 50-period simple moving average and the influx of negative signals from the Relative Strength Index, after the pair succeeded in offloading its oversold condition.

Accordingly, our forecast indicates further declines in the NZD/USD price in its upcoming intraday trading, as long as the resistance at 0.5765 holds, targeting the key support level at 0.5690.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced fluctuating intraday trading in continuous attempts to find an upward base that provides the necessary positive momentum for recovery. In these attempts, it relied on a strong support wall, namely its 50-period simple moving average, which contributed to the formation of positive candles indicating an imminent recovery. This scenario is further reinforced by the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index after it reached extremely oversold levels, along with the price trading along an ascending corrective trendline.

Our outlook remains positive for a rise in Bitcoin’s price in the upcoming intraday sessions, provided that the support level at $82,000 holds, so as to target the main resistance level at $90,000.

March 23, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Weekly Forecast: Losses to 1.22 by End 2025?

Foreign exchange strategists at Scotiabank forecasts Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate losses to 1.22 at the end of 2025.

Danske Bank, however, now has a 12-month GBP/USD forecast of 1.31 from 1.23 previously.

GBP/USD hit 4-month highs just above 1.30 during the week, but failed to hold the gains and retreated to 1.2900 late in the week as the dollar recovered.

US economic and dollar developments are likely to dominate.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.50%, in line with consensus forecasts.

The Fed cut its growth forecasts while projecting slightly higher inflation which increased stagflation fears and complicated the Fed’s task.

Scotiabank commented; “With inflation expectations sharply rising, we expect the Federal Reserve will remain on hold through the first half of the year even though growth is slowing more rapidly than expected so far this year. The Fed has little ability to respond to lower growth in the short run given what we still consider to be a challenging inflation outlook.”

Yields will tend to underpin the dollar, especially if risk appetite deteriorates.

Scotiabank notes domestic and global risks to growth which will spark volatility; “The direction of US economic and geopolitical policy is the greatest threat to the global economy.”

According to Standard Chartered; “The inflation risks are likely to put a floor under US bond yields and lead to a recovery in the oversold USD in the near term.”

The bank expects trade policies will be important with medium-term risks; “Implementation of wide-ranging US tariffs in April could sustain a near-term USD rally, although any hit to US growth is likely to eventually drag the USD lower.”

HSBC also expects trade policies will be crucial; “The key for the USD now is likely to rest more on how US trade policy evolves, rather than monetary policy. Our central case is that the USD will recover some lost ground over the long run, as US tariffs rise, the Fed does not cut more than what is already priced, and the rest of the world begins to look less exceptional again.”

According to Danske; “US recession fears have resurged with a softening of business sentiment, weakness in consumer confidence and weak retail sales weighing on growth prospects. These risks are further exacerbated by elevated uncertainty regarding tariff policy from President Trump.”

Danske has cut its dollar forecasts which has raised its GBP/USD profile. It added; “The shift in risk asset allocation away from the US appears structural, supporting our decision to raise the profile.”

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.50% and expressed a high degree of uncertainty over the outlook.

Rabobank commented; “Our baseline scenario has not changed since last summer: the Bank of England will likely cut rates quarterly, focusing on meetings with a Monetary Policy Report, aiming to end 2025 with a policy rate of 3.75%.”

Danske expects quarterly interest rate cuts to 3.75%, but added; “If the BoE opts for a more front-loaded cutting cycle, this would act as a headwind for GBP.”

Socgen sees structural dollar losses; “The US slowdown has resulted in a small fall in consensus growth forecasts, and those will ned to fall further to justify rate/FX pricing. It has a year-end forecast of 1.32 with 1.34 in the first quarter of 2026.”

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

• The GBP/USD forecast indicates a rebound in the dollar.

• Fed policymakers voted to keep interest rates unchanged.

• The Bank of England held rates on Thursday and shifted to a cautious tone.

The GBP/USD forecast indicates a rebound in the dollar amid a brief shift in focus from tariffs to monetary policy. Market participants expect both the Fed and the Bank of England to move forward cautiously due to uncertainty regarding US trade policies.

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The dollar found its feet late Wednesday after the FOMC policy meeting. Policymakers voted to keep interest rates unchanged. Moreover, the central bank’s forecasts remained unchanged, projecting only two rate cuts this year. Recent data had pushed up rate cut expectations, with traders pricing in three moves this year.

However, the Fed has to monitor both growth and inflation. While growth has slowed, inflation expectations have risen due to tariffs. At the same time, there is uncertainty about what Trump will do in the future. As a result, the Fed maintained that there was no rush to cut interest rates, giving life to the dollar. However, this rebound might only be brief. US recession fears will remain as long as tariffs cause trade wars. 

Similarly, the Bank of England held rates on Thursday and shifted to a cautious tone. Traders had expected seven votes to hold rates. However, eight policymakers voted to keep rates unchanged, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations. 

GBP/USD key events today

Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports today. Therefore, the price might consolidate.

GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears take charge after RSI divergence

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. Previously, the price was in an uptrend, trading above the 30-SMA. However, it paused near the pivotal 1.3000 level and started showing signs of weakness. The price stopped making big swings above the 30-SMA, indicating indecision. 

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At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating fading bullish momentum. As a result, bears overpowered bulls and pushed the price below the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI broke below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. 

GBP/USD can now retest the 1.2851 support level. This level coincides with the 0.382 Fib retracement, creating a solid resistance. A pause here would allow bulls to take back control. On the other hand, a break below this zone would confirm a new downtrend.

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