Copper price gave in to negative pressures and fell below the stable support of $4.8100, and hesitantly approached $4.7400, delaying any attempts at rising even as the price remains within an ascending channel.
As the $5.000 forms as a barrier and negative signals emerge from the Stochastic, the price will likely head towards $4.6500 then $4.5600.
Expected trading range today is between $4.6500 and $4.9500.
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell back overnight, after markets reacted to the April 2 US Tariffs.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR traded at 1.1951, a 0.41% decline on the daily opening levels.
GBPEUR had struggled for momentum on Wednesday as investors exercised caution ahead of US President Donald Trump’s impending tariff announcement.
The Euro (EUR) found little support on Wednesday as traders hesitated to take strong positions before Trump’s tariff decision.
The European Union has frequently been the target of Trump’s criticisms over trade imbalances, leading to concerns that the Eurozone economy could face significant disruptions if US tariffs are extended to European goods.
Adding to the uncertainty, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has reiterated that the EU is prepared to retaliate against any aggressive US trade measures, potentially imposing tariffs on American products such as motorcycles, whiskey, and denim.
EUR investors fear that escalating tensions between the US and EU could lead to a prolonged trade conflict, further undermining the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
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The Pound (GBP) saw little movement on Wednesday as reports suggested that UK officials had yet to secure exemptions from Trump’s latest round of tariffs.
While discussions between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Trump have been described as constructive, no immediate resolution is in sight.
Even if a deal is reached in the future, GBP investors fear that the UK’s open economy remains vulnerable to disruptions in global trade.
Looking ahead, in addition to the fallout from Trump’s tariff announcement, the Pound to Euro exchange rate may also be influenced by an upcoming speech from European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos on Thursday.
If de Guindos signals that the ECB may need to implement more accommodative policies in response to Trump’s tariffs, the Euro could face additional downside pressure.
Meanwhile, the UK’s latest services PMI could provide some support for the Pound, particularly if the finalised March figures confirm a strong performance in the sector.
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GBP/USD declines below 1.3000 following Thursday’s impressive upsurge.
Safe-haven flows continue to dominate the market action on Friday.
US Nonfarm Payrolls data and Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks on the economic outlook awaited.
GBP/USD climbed above 1.3200 for the first time since early October on Thursday but erased a portion of its daily gains later in the American session. The pair stays under bearish pressure in the European session on Friday and trades below 1.3000.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-1.52%
-0.35%
-2.30%
-1.23%
1.32%
0.51%
-2.84%
EUR
1.52%
1.30%
-0.76%
0.34%
2.97%
2.11%
-1.29%
GBP
0.35%
-1.30%
-2.05%
-0.90%
1.65%
0.83%
-2.50%
JPY
2.30%
0.76%
2.05%
1.09%
3.75%
2.92%
-0.63%
CAD
1.23%
-0.34%
0.90%
-1.09%
2.61%
1.77%
-1.62%
AUD
-1.32%
-2.97%
-1.65%
-3.75%
-2.61%
-0.81%
-4.12%
NZD
-0.51%
-2.11%
-0.83%
-2.92%
-1.77%
0.81%
-3.33%
CHF
2.84%
1.29%
2.50%
0.63%
1.62%
4.12%
3.33%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuelled GBP/USD rally on Thursday. US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs fed into fears of an economic downturn in the US, forcing the USD to weaken against its peers.
As markets remain risk-averse on Friday, GBP/USD finds it difficult to hold its ground. At the time of press, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index was down nearly 1.5% on the day and US stock index futures were losing between 0.3% and 0.9%.
Later in the day, the US economic calendar will feature the March employment report, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures.
Markets forecast an increase of 135,000 in NFP in March. A significant negative surprise, with an NFP reading at or below 100,000, could weigh on the USD and help GBP/USD find support. Conversely, an NFP print of 160,000 or higher could have the opposite impact on the pair’s action with the immediate reaction.
Ahead of the weekend, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the US economic outlook at the annual conference for the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. Powell will also attend a moderated panel discussion afterward.
In case Powell voices his concerns over the growth outlook, citing the new tariff regime, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure. On the other hand, the USD could end the week on a bullish note if Powell puts more emphasis on the upside risks to inflation outlook and reiterates their willingness to remain patient with regard to further policy easing.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are currently pricing in about a 32% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in May. The market positioning suggests that the USD has room on the upside if Powell’s remarks revive expectations for a policy hold at the next meeting.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart dropped below 50, reflecting a bearish tilt in the short-term outlook.
On the downside, 1.2960 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-period SMA) aligns as first support before 1.2935 (lower limit of the ascending channel) and 1.2900 (static level, round level).
In case GBP/USD reclaims 1.3000 (round level, static level), technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 1.3080 (mid-point of the ascending channel) and 1.3100 (round level, static level) could be seen as next resistance levels.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
USD/JPY edged higher in latest intraday trading while trying to recoup some recent losses, as the price also tried to vent off oversold saturation in the Stochastic with positive signals emerging from it.
It comes as the price settles below the pivotal support of 146.65 that was breached yesterday, while hurt by exiting an ascending correctional price channel previously, with the dominance of the main downward trend.
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USD/JPY edged higher in latest intraday trading while trying to recoup some recent losses, as the price also tried to vent off oversold saturation in the Stochastic with positive signals emerging from it.
It comes as the price settles below the pivotal support of 146.65 that was breached yesterday, while hurt by exiting an ascending correctional price channel previously, with the dominance of the main downward trend.
To get our more detailed analysis and 100% accurate signals provided by Best Trading Signal, subscribe to Economies.com VIP Club through the link below!
The British pound has fallen rather significantly during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of risk aversion, especially after the tariff announcement came out of the United States.
Because of this, we’ve seen a lot of traders run toward the Japanese yen, long considered one of the premier safety currencies in the world.
What will be interesting to see is how the market behaves after we’ve had time to digest all of the news, which of course has been very rapidly released. The Americans have slept massive tariffs on most of the rest of the world, and how certain countries behave will have a major outsized influence on how the markets behave. For example, some of the bigger ones like China and the European Union obviously will be crucial, but there are other countries that will also be moving, both of these groups will more likely than not move this pair, if for no other reason than the fact that the GBP/JPY pair tends to move based on risk appetite more than anything else.
Friday Could Be Wild
During the trading session on Friday, we will get the employment numbers coming out of the United States, which almost always causes quite a bit of volatility as far as risk appetite is concerned. Because of this, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and if it’s more of a “risk off day”, then the Japanese yen will continue to strengthen. The ¥190 level is an area that you need to be watching very closely, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course an area that traders will be paying close attention to for any signs of a bounce.
The ¥195 level above is going to be important as well, and if we can break above there then it would be a very bullish sign. That being said, we are nowhere near doing that, so I think more likely than not, we start bouncing around in a bit of a bounce.
USD/JPY edged higher in latest intraday trading while trying to recoup some recent losses, as the price also tried to vent off oversold saturation in the Stochastic with positive signals emerging from it.
It comes as the price settles below the pivotal support of 146.65 that was breached yesterday, while hurt by exiting an ascending correctional price channel previously, with the dominance of the main downward trend.
To get our more detailed analysis and 100% accurate signals provided by Best Trading Signal, subscribe to Economies.com VIP Club through the link below!
USD/JPY Forecast: the USD/JPY currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, is closely watched by traders and investors alike.
Overview of the USD/JPY Currency Pair
The USD/JPY pair is one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the world, reflecting the economic relationship between the United States and Japan. Both countries have significant global economic influence, making their currencies important in international trade and finance. The movements in this currency pair can be attributed to various factors, including economic data releases, central bank policies, and geopolitical events.
Economic Indicators Impacting USD/JPY
U.S. Economic Data Economic indicators from the United States play a pivotal role in determining the direction of the USD/JPY pair. Key reports such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment figures, and inflation rates provide insights into the health of the U.S. economy. Strong economic performance often leads to a stronger dollar, as investors seek to capitalize on growth prospects. Conversely, weaker economic data can result in a decline in the dollar’s value against the yen.
Japanese Economic Indicators
Similarly, economic data from Japan significantly impacts the yen’s value. Reports on Japan’s GDP, trade balance, and consumer sentiment help gauge the overall strength of the Japanese economy. A robust economic outlook may bolster the yen, while weak data could lead to depreciation. The Bank of Japan’s policies and responses to economic conditions also play a crucial role in shaping market perceptions of the yen.
Central Bank Policies
Federal Reserve Actions The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are vital for the USD/JPY exchange rate. Changes in interest rates, quantitative easing measures, and forward guidance influence market expectations. When the Fed signals a tightening of monetary policy, the dollar typically strengthens against the yen. On the other hand, accommodative policies may lead to a weaker dollar as investors seek higher yields elsewhere.
Bank of Japan Policies
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) also plays a significant role in the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. The BOJ’s stance on interest rates and its approach to economic stimulus impact the yen’s value. If the BOJ maintains a dovish stance, it may lead to yen weakness, while a shift towards tightening could strengthen the currency. The BOJ’s interventions in the foreign exchange market can also cause significant fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors on USD/JPY
Risk Sentiment Market sentiment is a crucial driver of currency movements. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to favor currencies perceived as more stable. The yen is often viewed as a currency that can provide stability during market volatility. Thus, shifts in risk sentiment can lead to movements in the USD/JPY pair, with heightened uncertainty typically resulting in yen appreciation.
Geopolitical Events Geopolitical tensions and events can create significant volatility in the foreign exchange market. Developments such as trade negotiations, political instability, or natural disasters in either the U.S. or Japan can influence investor behavior and, consequently, impact the USD/JPY exchange rate. Monitoring these events is essential for understanding potential market reactions.
Future Outlook for USD/JPY
Economic Recovery and Growth Prospects Looking ahead, the economic recovery in both the U.S. and Japan will be a key factor influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate. Strong growth in the U.S. economy could lead to a stronger dollar, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a hawkish stance. Conversely, Japan’s economic performance and the BOJ’s policy direction will determine the yen’s strength.
Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations Inflation trends in both countries will significantly impact monetary policy decisions. Rising inflation in the U.S. may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, supporting the dollar. In Japan, however, the BOJ has historically maintained a low-interest-rate environment, which could keep the yen under pressure. Monitoring inflation data will be essential for anticipating future movements in the USD/JPY pair.
Global Economic Influences Global economic developments, including trade relationships and international market trends, will also shape the USD/JPY outlook. As the global economy becomes more interconnected, external factors can have significant ramifications for currency pairs. Staying informed about global economic conditions will be crucial for understanding the potential direction of the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Conclusion
The USD/JPY currency pair is influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, central bank policies, market sentiment, and geopolitical events. Understanding these dynamics is essential for anyone looking to navigate the foreign exchange market effectively. As we approach the future, keeping a close watch on economic developments and market trends will provide valuable insights into the potential movements of the USD/JPY pair. With careful analysis and informed decision-making, traders can better position themselves to respond to the ever-changing landscape of the currency market.
When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange) and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and could result in capital loss.
Past performance is not indicative of any future results. This information is provided for informative purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice.
The Euro (EUR) rallied sharply against the US Dollar on Thursday after President Trump’s imposition of tariffs increased fears over the US and global economy and sparked increased recession talk.
Danske Bank commented; “The new tariffs were generally stronger and broader than we and markets expected, and sent shockwaves through global markets amid worries that the aggressive duties will slow growth, hit corporate earnings, and increase inflation.”
There are fears that the Euro-Zone will be hit hard, but the Euro gained defensive support with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate hit 6-month highs just above the key 1.1000 level.
An exodus from US capital markets could support the Euro and undermine the dollar.
ING commented; “While a global trade war in theory is a euro-negative, the soft underbelly of the US economy is the dominant factor for EUR/USD right now. A much sharper sell-off in US equities, dragging US rates even lower, adds another nail in the coffin of US exceptionalism and could send EUR/USD over 1.10.”
It added; “Major medium-term resistance sits in the 1.11/12 area. It’s hard to call a major break of that unless US activity craters.”
According to Danske Bank; “we expect consolidation around current levels in the near term, with risks tilted to the upside.”
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As part of its wider tariff plan, the US Administration has imposed a 20% tariff on goods imports from the EU.
At this stage, the EU has not announced any formal retaliation, but the rhetoric is tough.
According to European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the new tax imports will see uncertainty spiral causing dire consequences for millions of people around the globe”.
She vowed that Europe would take a unified approach and warned that it is preparing countermeasures in case negotiations fail.
She added; “If you take on one of us, you take on all of us.”
There are potential interest rate implications with markets now pricing in over a 90% chance that the ECB will cut rates this month.
The chances of a May Fed rate cut have also increased to around 20% with around a 75% chance of a move by mid-year.
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At the time of writing, Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trading at $1.3148 – its highest level since October 2024 and up 1.3% from Wednesday.
The US Dollar (USD) suffered a sharp decline on Wednesday evening and into Thursday’s session after US President Donald Trump introduced sweeping new tariffs.
On what he declared ‘liberation day’, Trump announced a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, alongside increased reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose taxes on US exports.
The move intensified concerns that the US economy could slide into recession this year. Analysts at Barclays warned of a ‘high risk’ of recession, with rising inflation and higher unemployment adding to the economic uncertainty.
In response, USD tumbled, with the US Dollar index – which tracks the currency’s performance against a basket of rivals – plunging nearly 1.4% to its lowest level since October 2024.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) capitalised on the US Dollar’s weakness, propelling GBP/USD to its highest level in six months.
While the UK will be affected by the new tariffs, the economic impact is expected to be significantly less severe than in the US. British exports to the US will face a 10% tariff, but this is a milder blow compared to the broader trade restrictions imposed on other nations.
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Looking ahead, Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is likely to fuel further volatility in currency markets as traders assess the potential fallout and watch for retaliatory measures from other economies.
If global trade tensions escalate and recession fears deepen, the US Dollar could remain under pressure.
In addition, upcoming US economic data may influence GBP/USD. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, which could further weigh on the ‘Greenback’ if it reinforces concerns about the health of the US economy.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also set to speak on Friday. Should he express worries about the economic impact of the trade war, GBP/USD could climb even higher, potentially testing new multi-month highs.
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