GBP/USD gained ground, supported by U.S. CPI report. Traders bet that Fed will be less hawkish as inflation has started to calm down. Traders also focus on comments from Fed Chair Warsh. He said that CPI decline did not mean that Fed accomplished its mission.

In case GBP/USD pulls back below the 50 MA at 1.3376, it will head towards the nearest support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. A successful test of of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the resistance at 1.3450 – 1.3465 to have a chance to gain additional upside momentum in the near term.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Sterling Surges vs Dollar after US Inflation Miss

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate advanced strongly on Tuesday after softer US inflation figures prompted investors to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3416, up approximately 0.5% from the opening levels of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) came under broad selling pressure on Tuesday following the publication of the latest US consumer price index, which indicated price pressures eased by more than markets had anticipated in June.

Headline inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.5% year-on-year, beating expectations for a more modest decline to 3.8%. Core inflation also surprised to the downside, with the annual rate easing to 2.6%.

The weaker inflation print prompted investors to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy, with market pricing for a September Federal Reserve interest rate increase falling from roughly 70% to around 50%.

The Pound (GBP) also attracted buyers on Tuesday as investors continued to anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) may yet be forced to tighten monetary policy again.

Those expectations have been reinforced by the latest surge in global energy prices. Renewed conflict in the Gulf has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling concerns over higher import costs and the potential for another inflationary shock that could keep pressure on the BoE to raise borrowing costs before the end of 2026.

However, Sterling’s advance was capped by measured remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee, Bailey warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East present significant risks to financial stability, while also highlighting that weak domestic growth continues to weigh on the UK’s economic outlook.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Producer Prices Awaited

Looking to the midweek session, attention will turn to the publication of the latest US producer price index, which is expected to provide the next major catalyst for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.

If producer price inflation also points to easing price pressures, investors may further unwind expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, potentially placing renewed pressure on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, the Pound may struggle to establish a clear direction on Wednesday as the UK economic calendar remains quiet ahead of Thursday’s closely watched GDP release.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

The British pound rose against the Japanese yen again on Monday, as we continue to see the ‘carry trade’ play out.

GBP/JPY

The British pound has risen during the early part of the trading session on Monday as we are starting to see the Japanese yen soften a bit. That makes a certain amount of sense, considering the interest rate differential between the two currencies and, of course, the fact that the Bank of Japan is essentially stuck while the Bank of England is still offering much higher rates and likely to be a little bit more stubborn.

You can see that we have seen such a nice, strong uptrend since 2020, and nothing has changed here. I think we still have a buy on the dips scenario as we have a longer-term destruction of the Japanese yen ahead of us. I’m playing all the yen-related pairs with small positions. I’m not trying to jump in with both feet because you get paid at the end of every day, and you can take advantage of the overall interest rate differential, gradually padding your account. It’s the simple carry trade.

The Carry Trade Dynamics and Key Yen Levels

The 215 yen level is an area that has been important in the past, so it could offer a bit of support if we are driven down to that area. It’s worth noting that the 50-day EMA is in that same region as well, offering a potential support level for technical traders, also.

To the upside, the next large round psychologically significant figure is the 220 yen level. Overall, this is a market that I think, given enough time, probably has to determine whether or not we are still going to short the yen. And I think looking around the markets, it will be a pretty obvious scenario one way or the other because, quite frankly, the yen-related pairs all tend to move most of the time in the same direction. So, one way traders can take advantage of that is to look around the world and sort out which ones are doing what and whether or not we continue to see that same pattern play out.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

Platinum price kept providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $1605.00 level, affected by the contradiction of the main indicators, obstructing the attempts of activating the suggested negative trend.

The price needs a new negative momentum, which allow it to reach $1510.00 support, while breaking it will confirm its move to a new negative station, to target $1440.00 level, reaching $1310.00, while holding above this support might provide a chance for recording some gains by target $1690.00 level, reaching the barrier near $1785.00

The expected trading range for today is between $1555.00 and $1680.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuating 

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Safe-Haven Demand Supports Dollar amid US-Iran Conflict

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped at the beginning of Monday’s session as renewed fighting in the Middle East encouraged demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), although Sterling later recovered part of its initial decline.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3388 after rebounding from an overnight low of $1.3369.

The US Dollar edged higher at the start of the week after fresh hostilities erupted in the Middle East.

While the fighting eased temporarily on Friday, tensions reignited over the weekend when Iran attacked a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US answered with strikes on Iranian targets, triggering retaliatory attacks by Tehran against US-backed Gulf states.

Growing concern that the conflict could intensify has weakened expectations that the two sides will be able to reach a durable peace agreement.

The cautious tone at the start of Monday’s session provided support for the safe-haven US Dollar. However, the ‘Greenback’ was unable to maintain its early advance as broader risk appetite proved more resilient than initially expected.

The Pound (GBP) lacked clear momentum on Monday as a quiet UK economic calendar left Sterling without a strong catalyst.

Even so, the currency avoided heavier losses against the US Dollar, with confidence in the UK’s political outlook continuing to provide support. Investors remained optimistic that the lengthy period of political uncertainty that has pressured the Pound was starting to ease.

As a result, GBP recovered a portion of its earlier losses against USD.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Will US Inflation Weigh on the US Dollar?

Looking ahead, the US Dollar could come under pressure on Tuesday when the latest US consumer price index is released.

Economists expect inflation to have eased from 4.2% in May to 3.8% in June. A reading in line with forecasts may reduce support for USD.

That said, developments in the Middle East are also expected to influence price action. If geopolitical tensions remain elevated, the safe-haven appeal of the ‘Greenback’ could strengthen.

Meanwhile, GBP investors will be watching a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey.

Bailey has continued to strike a cautious tone in recent weeks, arguing that policymakers should assess inflation carefully before adjusting interest rates. However, with renewed US-Iran tensions driving energy prices higher, Sterling could find support if his comments reinforce expectations that UK monetary policy will remain restrictive.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.07.13 2026.07.13
Yen Finds Support as Japan Signals Pension Pivot. Forecast as of 13.07.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

When the old playbook stops working, it’s time to write a new one. The Japanese government appears to have concluded that the most effective way to support the yen is to reignite investors’ fears of capital repatriation. Let’s examine the latest developments and develop a trading strategy for the USD/JPY pair.

Major Takeaways

• The Japanese government has spooked investors with capital repatriation.
• The BoJ’s rate hike fails to help the yen.
• The unwinding of the carry trade will affect the yen.
• Short positions on the USD/JPY pair can be opened if the price declines below 161.8 and 161.5.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen

Japan sought to demonstrate its resolve by spending ¥11.7 trillion on currency interventions in April and May, while repeatedly warning speculators against pushing the yen lower. Yet the market refused to back down. The USD/JPY pair climbed to a 40-year high, prompting policymakers to recognize that displays of force alone were not enough. A more sophisticated strategy was needed—and they appear to have found one.

No, this is not about the Bank of Japan adopting a more hawkish tone. Nor is it about Cabinet officials emphasizing that they have no intention of interfering with the BoJ’s monetary policy decisions. At first glance, both developments seem supportive of the yen. After all, speculation that Sanae Takaichi could pressure the central bank to keep interest rates low was one of the factors fueling the USD/JPY rally. If the BoJ’s independence is no longer in doubt, that should, in theory, provide support for the Japanese currency.

The reality, however, is more complicated. Over the past two years, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates five times, a move that should have narrowed the policy gap with the Fed and pushed USD/JPY quotes lower. Instead, the pair continued to surge even after the BoJ abandoned negative interest rates.

Japanese Government Bond Yields

Source: Bloomberg.

The government has now adopted a far stronger strategy. It has begun raising the prospect of what global markets have long feared: large-scale capital repatriation to Japan. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has said the government will encourage Japanese pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase their allocations to domestic assets. The GPIF alone manages roughly $1.8 trillion, while Japanese investors hold an estimated $5 trillion in overseas assets. Should even a fraction of that capital begin flowing back from the US and Europe to Japan, the yen would receive a powerful boost against the world’s major currencies.

FX Volatility Index

Source: Bloomberg.

Another factor weighing on USD/JPY is the potential unwinding of carry trades. According to Goldman Sachs, conditions for carry strategies are the most favorable in two decades, largely because market volatility has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. However, growing uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy stance under Kevin Warsh, coupled with renewed tensions in the Middle East, is driving volatility higher.

As volatility rises, the appeal of carry trades diminishes. Investors are more likely to unwind existing positions, creating demand for traditional funding currencies such as the euro, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.

By raising the prospect of capital repatriation, the Japanese government has added another source of support for USD/JPY bears, alongside the unwinding of carry trades.

Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan

Whether the pair will be able to develop a correction will depend on US inflation data. Weak data will likely put pressure on the US dollar, allowing investors to sell the USD/JPY pair if the price slides below the 161.8 and 161.5 support levels.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

The euro is forecast to come under renewed pressure against the US dollar this month as rising energy prices reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer, according to ING.

ING believes the deteriorating situation in the Gulf is proving more supportive for the US dollar than the euro, with higher oil and natural gas prices creating a particularly difficult backdrop for energy-importing Europe while simultaneously keeping US inflation concerns alive.

Why Higher Energy Prices Favour the US Dollar

According to ING, two themes are dominating currency markets: rising energy prices and strong demand for higher-yielding currencies.

The bank argues that renewed disruption risks in the Gulf are strengthening the US dollar because higher energy costs could keep Federal Reserve tightening expectations alive.

At the same time, Europe remains more vulnerable to higher energy prices, with natural gas costs beginning to climb again at a time when inventories remain relatively low.

That combination leaves the euro at a disadvantage against the dollar in the near term.

Why the Euro Is Losing Momentum

ING says last week’s corrective rebound in EUR/USD has already started to lose momentum.

The bank notes that higher gas prices have capped the euro’s recovery, while a relatively quiet Eurozone economic calendar means energy markets are likely to have a greater influence on short-term price action than comments from European Central Bank officials.

EUR/USD was trading close to 1.1414 on Monday afternoon after remaining largely unchanged over the past week, having already fallen more than 2% during June.

The Federal Reserve Holds the Key

ING believes upcoming US inflation data and testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be the biggest catalysts for EUR/USD this week.

Although headline inflation may soften, the bank expects rising energy prices and resilient core inflation to keep the prospect of another Fed rate increase firmly on the table.

If markets continue to believe US interest rates could remain higher for longer, the dollar is likely to stay well supported against lower-yielding currencies such as the euro.

What’s the Forecast for the Euro versus the US Dollar?

ING expects EUR/USD to drift lower in the near term outlook.

The bank believes the exchange rate can easily fall towards 1.1360 and says a test of the 1.1300-1.1325 area is possible later this month if energy prices continue rising and markets maintain expectations for tighter US monetary policy.

Even so, ING does not expect that area to give way easily, suggesting it is likely to provide an important floor for EUR/USD during the summer unless the macroeconomic backdrop deteriorates further.

EUR/USD Forecast FAQ

Why does ING expect EUR/USD to weaken?

ING believes higher oil and natural gas prices favour the US dollar by keeping expectations for Federal Reserve tightening alive while simultaneously weighing on the euro through higher European energy costs.

What is ING’s near-term EUR/USD target?

ING believes EUR/USD can fall towards 1.1360 initially, with scope to test the 1.1300-1.1325 area later this month.

Why are natural gas prices important for the euro?

Europe remains heavily exposed to imported energy. Rising gas prices increase inflation risks and can weaken the region’s growth outlook, making the euro less attractive.

What could stop EUR/USD falling?

A decline in energy prices or signs that the Federal Reserve no longer needs to consider another interest rate increase would reduce support for the US dollar and could help stabilise EUR/USD.

Platinum price provided weak trading recently by its fluctuation near $1595.00 level, surrendering to the bearish trend, which depends on the continuation of forming a main resistance at $1810.00 level, besides the stability of the extra barrier near $1690.00 level.

The attempt to provide negative momentum by the main indicators might increase the negative pressure in the current trading, which makes us keep the negative scenario, which might target $1555.00 level, to press on the support at $1510.00, to find an exit for resuming the decline in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $1555.00 and $1640.00 

Trend forecast: Bearish