EUR/USD Current price: 1.0721

• ECB policymaker Klass Knot hinted at more rate cuts before year end.
• Dismal United States data limits US Dollar strength ahead of Wall Street’s opening.
• The EUR/USD pair is in retreat mode after failing to overcome the 1.0750 price zone.

After failing to extend gains beyond the 1.0750 region, the EUR/USD pair eased on Thursday, falling to an intraday low of 1.0712 posted during European trading hours. Nevertheless, financial markets seem to be in a good mood, limiting US Dollar strength. Asian and European indexes trade in the green, underpinning Wall Street ahead of the opening.

Meanwhile,  European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Klaas Knot hit the wires and said that the “just under three” cuts priced in by financial markets for 2024 were “broadly in line” with the optimal policy path as priced into ECB projections. He then added that there’s a strong case for the ECB to decide quarterly based on the outlook.

Data-wise, the Eurozone did not release relevant macroeconomic data, while the United States (US) published multiple figures ahead of the session opening. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 14 were up by 238K, worse than the 235K expected. At the same time, Building Permits fell by 3.8% MoM in May, while Housing Starts declined by 5.5%. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey printed at 1.3 in June, down from the previous 4.5 and worse than the 5 anticipated. Later in the session, the European Commission will release the preliminary estimate of the June Consumer Confidence index.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, EUR/USD has room to extend its slide. The daily chart shows that the pair is trading near its intraday low and below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) about to extend its slide below the flat 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators gain downward momentum within negative levels, reflecting increased selling interest.

In the near term, EUR/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA, maintaining its bearish slope, while the pair is currently developing below a flat 20 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, tick marginally higher, although within negative levels. The pair would need to run past 1.0760 to confirm a bullish continuation, an unlikely scenario at this point.

 Support levels: 1.0710 1.0665 1.0620

Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0810 1.0840

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0721

• ECB policymaker Klass Knot hinted at more rate cuts before year end.
• Dismal United States data limits US Dollar strength ahead of Wall Street’s opening.
• The EUR/USD pair is in retreat mode after failing to overcome the 1.0750 price zone.

After failing to extend gains beyond the 1.0750 region, the EUR/USD pair eased on Thursday, falling to an intraday low of 1.0712 posted during European trading hours. Nevertheless, financial markets seem to be in a good mood, limiting US Dollar strength. Asian and European indexes trade in the green, underpinning Wall Street ahead of the opening.

Meanwhile,  European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Klaas Knot hit the wires and said that the “just under three” cuts priced in by financial markets for 2024 were “broadly in line” with the optimal policy path as priced into ECB projections. He then added that there’s a strong case for the ECB to decide quarterly based on the outlook.

Data-wise, the Eurozone did not release relevant macroeconomic data, while the United States (US) published multiple figures ahead of the session opening. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 14 were up by 238K, worse than the 235K expected. At the same time, Building Permits fell by 3.8% MoM in May, while Housing Starts declined by 5.5%. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey printed at 1.3 in June, down from the previous 4.5 and worse than the 5 anticipated. Later in the session, the European Commission will release the preliminary estimate of the June Consumer Confidence index.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, EUR/USD has room to extend its slide. The daily chart shows that the pair is trading near its intraday low and below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) about to extend its slide below the flat 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators gain downward momentum within negative levels, reflecting increased selling interest.

In the near term, EUR/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA, maintaining its bearish slope, while the pair is currently developing below a flat 20 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, tick marginally higher, although within negative levels. The pair would need to run past 1.0760 to confirm a bullish continuation, an unlikely scenario at this point.

 Support levels: 1.0710 1.0665 1.0620

Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0810 1.0840

• The British pound initially pulled back just a bit during the course of the early hours on Wednesday only to turn around and show signs of life again.
• Ultimately, I think this is a market that will eventually try to break well above the recent high and given enough time I think we also go looking to the 205 yen level.
• This is an area that I think will be interesting to watch, but there if nothing inherent about it that means it should be the “final ceiling.”

Underneath we have the 200 yen level that I think offers quite a bit of support. And if we were to break down below there, it’s likely that we could go down to the 198 yen level where I think a lot of people will be very interesting. And the 50 day EMA is starting to race towards that area as well.

• 

Keep in mind that the British pound pays much more in the way of interest than the Japanese yen does, but with this being the case, the Bank of England meeting on Thursday will have a major influence on where we go next. With that being the situation, I would expect volatility, but any type of knee-jerk reaction will more likely than not open up the possibility of finding cheap pounds.

Bank of Japan Helpless

The Bank of Japan is nowhere near tightening monetary policy. So, I think you’ve got a situation where market participants will continue to see this on the prism of it being very noisy. And with that being the case, you need to be somewhat cautious with your position sizing. Nonetheless, the trend in this pair is dead obvious and there’s no reason to fight it. I think given enough time; traders will continue to push this pair higher as the Bank of Japan just simply has far too much debt with the Japanese government to start tightening monetary policy. I think the Japanese yen will lose much more value before it’s all said and done.

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• The Euro initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday against the Japanese Yen.
• It looks like the 169.40 yen level continues to offer at least a little bit of support and therefore we have turned around to show signs of life.
• All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise and it does look like we are trying to build up enough pressure to go higher.

The 50 day EMA underneath is near the 168 yen level, and I think that is a bit of a short term floor in the market. I like the idea of buying dips mainly due to the fact that I don’t like the yen at all. It’s not even that I like the euro, it’s just that I think the yen is in that much trouble.

• 

Value Hunters Will Be Present

Short-term pullbacks continue to find value hunters jumping into the market, and then of course, you have to keep in mind that you get paid to hang on to this pair, just like you do almost anything else denominated in yen. With this being the case, there’s no real need to fight this, and if the euro does in fact bounce against the dollar a little bit, and it looks like it might, that should help this pair as well.

If we can break above the 171 yen level, then I think we could make a serious run towards the 175 yen level over the longer term. I don’t know that we have the massive and pulse of up days that we used to, but I do think that we have more of a grind to the upside that will continue to attract inflows. As far as selling is concerned, I wouldn’t even consider it until we broke below the 165 yen level. And really at this point, I just don’t see that happening very easily, and therefore I am currently “long only” in this pair.

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• Pound Sterling edges lower after posting small gains on Wednesday.
• The Bank of England is forecast to maintain bank rate at 5.25%.
• Vote split could trigger a reaction in Pound Sterling.

GBP/USD stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a tight channel above 1.2700 in the European morning on Thursday. The Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcements could trigger the next big action later in the session.

The BoE is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% following the June policy meeting. Because there won’t be a post-meeting press conference, investors will scrutinize the policy statement and the vote split.

In case more than two policymakers vote in favor of a rate cut, the initial market reaction could cause Pound Sterling to weaken against its rivals. On the other hand, GBP/USD could stay in range if the BoE refrains from making any noticeable changes to its policy statement and the vote split remains the same, with seven officials voting for a hold. 

In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims, alongside Housing Starts and Building Permits data for May.

If there is a sharp decline in the number of first-time application for unemployment benefits, with a reading at or below 220,000, following the previous week’s big increase, the USD could gather strength against its rivals in the second half of the day.

Investors will also continue to pay close attention to comments from central bank officials during the American trading hours.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD trades within a touching distance of the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays near 50, reflecting a lack of directional momentum.

GBP/USD faces key support at 1.2700 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), lower limit of the ascending channel). If the pair drops below this level and starts using it as resistance, 1.2640 (100-day SMA) could be seen as next support before 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).

On the upside, resistances are located at 1.2740 (100-period SMA), 1.2800 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2850 (end-point of the latest uptrend).

 

• Pound Sterling edges lower after posting small gains on Wednesday.
• The Bank of England is forecast to maintain bank rate at 5.25%.
• Vote split could trigger a reaction in Pound Sterling.

GBP/USD stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a tight channel above 1.2700 in the European morning on Thursday. The Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcements could trigger the next big action later in the session.

The BoE is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% following the June policy meeting. Because there won’t be a post-meeting press conference, investors will scrutinize the policy statement and the vote split.

In case more than two policymakers vote in favor of a rate cut, the initial market reaction could cause Pound Sterling to weaken against its rivals. On the other hand, GBP/USD could stay in range if the BoE refrains from making any noticeable changes to its policy statement and the vote split remains the same, with seven officials voting for a hold. 

In the second half of the day, the US economic docket will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims, alongside Housing Starts and Building Permits data for May.

If there is a sharp decline in the number of first-time application for unemployment benefits, with a reading at or below 220,000, following the previous week’s big increase, the USD could gather strength against its rivals in the second half of the day.

Investors will also continue to pay close attention to comments from central bank officials during the American trading hours.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD trades within a touching distance of the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays near 50, reflecting a lack of directional momentum.

GBP/USD faces key support at 1.2700 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), lower limit of the ascending channel). If the pair drops below this level and starts using it as resistance, 1.2640 (100-day SMA) could be seen as next support before 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).

On the upside, resistances are located at 1.2740 (100-period SMA), 1.2800 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2850 (end-point of the latest uptrend).

 

Economists forecast the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index to remain steady at 4.5. An unexpected slide in the Index could raise concerns about a US hard landing. However, the numbers may not materially influence the Fed rate path. The manufacturing sector contributes less than 30% to the US economy.

On the other hand, US jobless claims data could influence investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut.

Economists forecast initial jobless claims to fall from 242k to 235k in the week ending June 15.

Lower-than-expected numbers could temper investor expectations of a Fed rate cut. Tighter labor market conditions may support wage growth and increase disposable income. Upward trends in disposable income could fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation.

A higher-for-longer Fed rate path may reduce borrowing costs, reduce disposable income, and curb consumer spending.

Other stats include housing sector-related data. However, the stats will likely play second fiddle to the labor market numbers.

With the US labor market in focus, investors should track FOMC member speeches. FOMC Member Thomas Barkin is on the calendar to speak. Views on inflation and the timing of a Fed rate cut could influence buyer demand for the US dollar.

The Richmond Fed President spoke on Tuesday, saying more progress on inflation would be needed to cut interest rates.

Short-term Forecast

Near-term trends for the USD/JPY will hinge on BoJ chatter, inflation numbers from Japan, and Services PMIs from Japan and the US. An increase in service sector activity in Japan and inflation figures exceeding expectations could prompt the BoJ to consider initiating rate hike discussions.

A more hawkish stance from the BoJ could shift the divergence in monetary policies toward the Yen, especially as the Fed contemplates an interest rate cut.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price trends.

A USD/JPY return to the 158 handle could give the bulls a run at the 160 handle and the April 29 high of 160.209.

Central bank chatter and US labor market data require investor attention.

Conversely, a USD/JPY fall through the 157.5 handle could signal a drop to the 50-day EMA. A break below the 50-day EMA could bring the 151.685 support level into play.

The 14-day RSI at 60.43 indicates a USD/JPY return to the April 29 high of 160.209 before entering overbought territory.

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• EUR/USD maintained its constructive stance so far this week.
• Trading conditions remained thin and volatility was absent on the US holiday.
• Political concerns in Europe appear to have dwindled somewhat.

The US Dollar (USD) traded in a vacillating fashion in the low-105.00s when tracked by the USD Index (DXY) on Wednesday, providing humble support to risk sentiment and encouraging EUR/USD to extend its upside impulse for the third session in a row near the 1.0750 zone.

The pair’s marginal upward movement was also bolstered by easing political concerns in France, while speculation about potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year also accompanied the pair’s price action.

Regarding the Fed, the recent cautious stance from Fed officials appeared to limit the Greenback’s downside after they reiterated their prudent approach regarding the commencement of the Fed’s easing cycle.

On the latter, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now indicates a nearly 65% probability of lower interest rates by the September 18 meeting.

In the short term, the ECB’s recent rate cut, contrasting with the Fed’s decision to maintain rates, has widened the policy gap between the two central banks, potentially exposing EUR/USD to further weakness.

On this, it is worth noting that ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized on Tuesday that rate decisions will align with the release of the bank’s updated macroeconomic projections in September.

Looking ahead, the Eurozone’s emerging economic recovery and perceived slowdowns in the US economy are expected to mitigate this disparity, providing some support for the pair on the short-term horizon.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

If the rebound in EUR/USD gathers impetus, the 200-day SMA at 1.0788 emerges as the immediate target, ahead of the weekly high of 1.0852 (June 12), and the June top of 1.0916 (June 4). The breakout of this level exposes the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8), seconded by the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11) and the key 1.1000 threshold.

In case bears regain the upper hand, the pair may retest the June low of 1.0667 (June 14), prior to the May low of 1.0649 (May 1), and lastly the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16).

The 4-hour chart thus far shows some indications of gradual recovery. Bulls should aim for 1.0810 first, followed by 1.0852, 1.0916, and ultimately 1.0942. The initial support, instead, turns up at 1.0667, seconded by 1.0649 and 1.0601. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has decreased to about 51.

• EUR/USD maintained its constructive stance so far this week.
• Trading conditions remained thin and volatility was absent on the US holiday.
• Political concerns in Europe appear to have dwindled somewhat.

The US Dollar (USD) traded in a vacillating fashion in the low-105.00s when tracked by the USD Index (DXY) on Wednesday, providing humble support to risk sentiment and encouraging EUR/USD to extend its upside impulse for the third session in a row near the 1.0750 zone.

The pair’s marginal upward movement was also bolstered by easing political concerns in France, while speculation about potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year also accompanied the pair’s price action.

Regarding the Fed, the recent cautious stance from Fed officials appeared to limit the Greenback’s downside after they reiterated their prudent approach regarding the commencement of the Fed’s easing cycle.

On the latter, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now indicates a nearly 65% probability of lower interest rates by the September 18 meeting.

In the short term, the ECB’s recent rate cut, contrasting with the Fed’s decision to maintain rates, has widened the policy gap between the two central banks, potentially exposing EUR/USD to further weakness.

On this, it is worth noting that ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized on Tuesday that rate decisions will align with the release of the bank’s updated macroeconomic projections in September.

Looking ahead, the Eurozone’s emerging economic recovery and perceived slowdowns in the US economy are expected to mitigate this disparity, providing some support for the pair on the short-term horizon.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

If the rebound in EUR/USD gathers impetus, the 200-day SMA at 1.0788 emerges as the immediate target, ahead of the weekly high of 1.0852 (June 12), and the June top of 1.0916 (June 4). The breakout of this level exposes the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8), seconded by the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11) and the key 1.1000 threshold.

In case bears regain the upper hand, the pair may retest the June low of 1.0667 (June 14), prior to the May low of 1.0649 (May 1), and lastly the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16).

The 4-hour chart thus far shows some indications of gradual recovery. Bulls should aim for 1.0810 first, followed by 1.0852, 1.0916, and ultimately 1.0942. The initial support, instead, turns up at 1.0667, seconded by 1.0649 and 1.0601. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has decreased to about 51.

• For the third day in a row, the price of the pound sterling against the US dollar GBP/USD is trying to rebound higher with gains at the level of 1.2732.
• It is recovering from strong recent selling operations, which led to it moving towards the support level of 1.2656, its lowest in a month.
• During today’s session, Wednesday, the price of the pound sterling rose slightly after inflation in Britain fell to the Central Bank’s target of 2% in May, as expected.

According to the results of the economic calendar, British core inflation also fell to 3.5% from 3.9%, in line with expectations, and service inflation fell to 5.7% from 5.9%. Despite this, the Bank of England recently said that reaching the target inflation alone will not lead to a cut in interest rates. Moreover, the Bank of England is expected to keep its key interest rate at a 16-year high of 5.25% when it decides on monetary policy tomorrow, but most economists expect two rate cuts this year, with the first likely in August.

On the political front, recent polls show the Labor Party leading the upcoming July 4 election, while the Conservatives led by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are in second place.

According to reliable forex trading platforms, GBP/USD will rise if Dave Ramsden votes against a rate cut on Thursday, as this would significantly reduce the chances of a rate cut in August. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at current levels on Thursday and indicate that any decision to cut rates will depend on upcoming data. Meanwhile, the consensus expects a 7-2 vote to keep rates unchanged. Overall, this would be a neutral outcome for the pound.

However, any shift in the voting structure could strongly suggest a shift in the MPC. The market is currently pricing in a 50-50 chance of a rate cut in August, and if those odds fall, sterling will rally.

With that in mind, any changes in the voting structure would provide a strong early signal that would affect the outlook for August.

Ultimately, the chance of a 6-3 vote for a rate cut is low, as this would suggest that another MPC member has looked at the strong inflation and survey data and believes it indicates a need for rate cuts. This would be very unusual. However, there is a higher chance that the MPC will revert to an 8-1 vote to keep rates on hold, with Dave Ramsden changing his vote in light of the stronger-than-expected inflation reading in April.

• 

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the performance on the daily chart the bulls’ confidence in controlling the trend is back. Technically, the GBP/USD price is moving above the resistance of 1.2775, which supports the bullish outlook again. Furthermore, the stronger and more continuous control of the trend will be by moving towards the psychological resistance level of 1.3000. In contrast, and over the same period of time, the support of 1.2600 will be important for the strength of the downward shift. clearly, this will depend on the Bank of England’s decisions tomorrow and the future of British policy, in addition to the policy of global central banks.

Today, we expect the GBP/USD price to remain in narrow ranges in light of the American holiday.

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• At the start of trading today, Wednesday, USD/JPY is hovering bullishly around the 157.92 resistance level.
• The yen had gained some support from data showing stronger-than-expected Japanese export growth in May amid a weak yen and strong external demand.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told the Japanese parliament earlier this week that they may raise interest rates again at the July meeting depending on upcoming economic data. Also, he warned that higher import costs caused by a weaker yen could weigh on household spending, but added that higher wages could boost consumption.

Last week, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected, and said it would release a plan to reduce its bond-buying program at its next policy meeting in July. The yen fell sharply and approached three-decade lows after the decision, before paring those losses as market participants shifted their focus to the expected reduction in bond purchases and the possibility of more currency intervention.

According to the economic calendar, the Bank of Japan unanimously kept its key short-term interest rate at around 0% to 0.1% at its June meeting, as widely expected, after raising rates for the first time since 2007 and ending eight years of negative interest rates in March. At the same time, the governing board indicated that it may consider how to start reducing bond purchases at its July meeting. Clearly, the move was approved by an 8-1 vote, with board member Nakamura Toyoaki opposing, with the aim of allowing longer-term interest rates to move more freely.

In general, the Bank of Japan is currently buying around 6 trillion yen of bonds per month. The Friday statement said the Japanese economy had recovered moderately despite some areas of fragility. Private consumption had been resilient amid improving corporate profits and business spending. However, exports remained flat, as did public investment. On the inflation front, annual figures were in the 2 to 2.5% range, with inflation expectations rising modestly. Meanwhile, the core consumer price index is expected to rise gradually.

• 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today

The general trend for USD/JPY remains bullish and may remain so until Japan intervenes in the forex markets to prevent further collapse of the currency exchange rate. Now, all eyes are on the psychological resistance level of 160.00 in case bulls move the currency pair towards the resistance levels of 158.30 and 159.00 respectively. According to the performance on the daily chart, breaking the current channel requires moving below the 155.00 level. Today is a US holiday, so the currency pair is expected to move in narrow ranges while maintaining the current upward trend.

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EUR/USD Current price: 1.0744

• ECB member Mario Centeno delivered yet another hawkish message.
•  The United States celebrates the Juneteenth holiday, local markets will remain closed.
• EUR/USD bullish in the near term, resistance at 1.0760, the weekly high.

The US Dollar is under mild selling pressure in a quiet Wednesday, helping EUR/USD advance towards the 1.0750 price zone. Stock markets trade mixed, confined to tight ranges around their opening levels, suggesting speculative interest lacks directional motivation.

The Euro found support in comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mario Centeno. Centeno said that interest rates will be cut further if inflation slows, maintaining the hawkish bias set in the June ECB meeting.

Other than that, the Eurozone released the April Current Account, which posted a seasonally adjusted surplus of €38.6 billion, improving from the €35.8 billion posted in March and beating expectations. Construction Output in the same month contracted by 0.2%, better than the 0.5% loss from the previous month.

 The United States (US) published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended June 14, which rose 0.9%. It is worth reminding that the country celebrates the Juneteenth holiday, and local markets will remain closed, limiting FX activity throughout the American afternoon.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is up for a third consecutive day, although gains are modest. EUR/USD posted a weekly high at 1.0760 on Tuesday, the level to surpass to gain additional upward traction. Technically, however, the risk skews to the downside. The daily chart shows EUR/USD develops far below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading modestly lower above flat 100 and 200 SMAs. The Momentum indicator aims marginally lower below its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 44, suggesting buyers remain sidelined.

According to the 4-hour chart, near-term advances seem likely. The EUR/USD pair is finding support around a now flat 20 SMA, although the 100 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA, limiting the upside in the 1.0810 price zone. Finally, technical indicators extend their advances above their midlines, in line with the latest bounce, although not enough to confirm a steady advance ahead.

Support levels: 1.0710 1.0665 1.0620

Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0810 1.0840

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0744

• ECB member Mario Centeno delivered yet another hawkish message.
•  The United States celebrates the Juneteenth holiday, local markets will remain closed.
• EUR/USD bullish in the near term, resistance at 1.0760, the weekly high.

The US Dollar is under mild selling pressure in a quiet Wednesday, helping EUR/USD advance towards the 1.0750 price zone. Stock markets trade mixed, confined to tight ranges around their opening levels, suggesting speculative interest lacks directional motivation.

The Euro found support in comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mario Centeno. Centeno said that interest rates will be cut further if inflation slows, maintaining the hawkish bias set in the June ECB meeting.

Other than that, the Eurozone released the April Current Account, which posted a seasonally adjusted surplus of €38.6 billion, improving from the €35.8 billion posted in March and beating expectations. Construction Output in the same month contracted by 0.2%, better than the 0.5% loss from the previous month.

 The United States (US) published MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended June 14, which rose 0.9%. It is worth reminding that the country celebrates the Juneteenth holiday, and local markets will remain closed, limiting FX activity throughout the American afternoon.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is up for a third consecutive day, although gains are modest. EUR/USD posted a weekly high at 1.0760 on Tuesday, the level to surpass to gain additional upward traction. Technically, however, the risk skews to the downside. The daily chart shows EUR/USD develops far below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading modestly lower above flat 100 and 200 SMAs. The Momentum indicator aims marginally lower below its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 44, suggesting buyers remain sidelined.

According to the 4-hour chart, near-term advances seem likely. The EUR/USD pair is finding support around a now flat 20 SMA, although the 100 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA, limiting the upside in the 1.0810 price zone. Finally, technical indicators extend their advances above their midlines, in line with the latest bounce, although not enough to confirm a steady advance ahead.

Support levels: 1.0710 1.0665 1.0620

Resistance levels: 1.0760 1.0810 1.0840