• This is one of the more interesting markets that I’m following right now, mainly due to the fact that we have recently seen a breakout and now we are looking at a retest.
• It’s possible that we are going to see a complete turnaround in the trend, but this is normally a fairly messy affair for those who are more conservative.

They like to see a breakout, a pullback and retest and then eventually momentum to the upside. We have two of three so far. The 0.86 level is important as it previously was massive Resistance. And it also features the 200 day EMA. If we can continue to rally from here, then the 0.8650 level will be a potential target. If we can break above there, then the 0.8750 level is your next target.

• 

Is This a Trend Change?

Keep in mind that this pair had been in a massive downtrend for some time, going out a couple of years, but we’ve recently found a range. The range now seems to be breaking down, so I’m waiting to see whether or not this market came close a bit higher from here before I start to put money toward it. The most obvious point of support would be the 0.85 level, and if we were to break down below there, then you could say it’s a busted trade.

This is more of a swing trade and a lot less of a short term smash and grab type situation, but quite frankly, it does set up quite nicely. That being said you have to keep in mind that this pair does tend to be choppy in general, so it’s not like it’s going to shoot straight up in the air. Furthermore, the pip value is much higher in this pair than it is in others, so the reality is that you don’t need huge moves to make nice profits.

At this point, I think this could be a nice trade for the rest of the year, especially if the euro somehow gets traction against the US dollar, because then it becomes the currency du jour for traders around the world, and it means that it would have even more momentum.

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A hotter-than-expected US economy could further impact investor bets on a September Fed rate cut. A higher-for-longer Fed rate path would affect borrowing costs and reduce disposable income. Downward trends in disposable income could impact consumer spending and dampen demand-driven inflation.

Private consumption contributes over 60% to the US economy. A less robust US economy could also dampen housing services sector inflationary pressures. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently cited household services inflation as the stumbling block to bringing inflation to the 2% target.

Other economic indicators include jobless claims and pending home sales figures. However, barring an unexpected spike in US jobless claims, the market focus will likely be on the GDP report.

Short-term Forecast

Near-term trends for the USD/JPY remain hinged on inflation numbers from Japan and the US and the Bank of Japan. Softer-than-expected inflation numbers from Japan could leave the Bank of Japan in a holding pattern vis-à-vis monetary policy. A hotter-than-expected US Personal Income and Outlays Report could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the US dollar. Nevertheless, a Japanese government intervention would overshadow the stats.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY sat well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price trends.

A USD/JPY break above the April 24 high of 155.374 could support a move to the 156 handle.

Investors should consider the Bank of Japan commentary, intervention threats, and US GDP numbers.

Conversely, a USD/JPY drop below the 155 handle could bring the 151.685 support level and the 50-day EMA into view. Buying pressure could increase at the 151.685 support level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the support level.

The 14-day RSI at 77.12 shows the USD/JPY in overbought territory. Selling pressure could intensify at the April 24 high of 155.374.

EUR/GBP exchange rate flat following PMIs

The euro pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate is trapped in a narrow range today following the publication of the latest UK and Eurozone PMI data.

At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP exchange rate is trading at around €0.8616, virtually unchanged from this morning’s opening rate.

Euro (EUR) fluctuates following PMI data

The euro (EUR) is trading in a wide range today, muted against the majority of its peers however is managing to firm against its risk-sensitive counterparts, following the release of the Eurozone’s latest PMI data.

April’s reading printed somewhat mixed, as both the services and manufacturing figures deviated from predictions.

The flash services PMI came in above expectations and printed at 52.9, rising from a previous reading of 51.5 and beat forecasts of a more modest 51.8.

The preliminary manufacturing index reported a drop in this month’s reading, falling from 46.1 to 45.6, and came in below predictions of a 46.6 reading.

Cyrus De La Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank commented:

‘The Eurozone got off to a good start in the second quarter. The Composite HCOB Flash PMI took a significant step into expansionary territory. This was propelled by the services sector, where activity has gathered further steam.’

However, despite the seemingly upbeat data reading, the euro is struggling to drift higher today.

Pound (GBP) supported by Services PMI

Whilst the pound (GBP) remains flat against the euro, is it strengthening against the majority of its counterparts in the wake of the UK’s preliminary PMI reading.

Although the UK’s data followed a similar path to that of the Eurozone’s release, an unexpected surge in the UK services sector has served to underpin GBP exchange rates through the first half of today’s European session.

The services index increased from 53.1 to 54.9 in April, and skyrocketed past a more modest expectation of 53, whilst the manufacturing sector printed below expectations and fell from 50.3 to 48.7, dropping the sector back in contraction territory (printing under the 50 level that marks expansion).

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says:

‘Early PMI survey data for April indicate that the UK economy’s recovery from recession last year continued to gain momentum. Improved growth in the service sector offset a renewed downturn in manufacturing to propel overall business growth to the fastest for nearly a year, indicating that GDP is rising at a quarterly rate of 0.4% after a 0.3% gain in the first quarter.’

With suggestions that UK inflation could be sticker than expected, Sterling has managed to enjoy some moderate success today.

EUR/GBP forecast: German data in the spotlight?

Looking ahead, the primary catalyst of movement for the EUR/GBP exchange rate for the rest of the week will likely be several data releases from the Eurozone’s largest economy.

On Wednesday, Germany’s latest IFO business climate is predicted to report a marginal increase in April, which could lift EUR exchange rates in mid-week trade.

On Thursday, business confidence in the Germany is expected to show another fall in May’s figures, which could in turn hobble the single currency towards the end of the week.

Turning to the pound, a lack of significant UK data could see Sterling trade without a clear direction for the remainder of the week.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has shown itself to be strong again during the early hours on Wednesday, but it struggled at the 50 day EMA and pulled back. With that being the case, if we can break above this level, then the 200 day EMA comes into the picture as a potential target.

That being said, it looks like we are going to struggle a little bit, and it is worth noting that the US dollar is starting to pick up strength against other currencies again. So this might end up being a selling opportunity. The 0.6450 level underneath could be a target. It’s an area that we’ve seen both support and resistance multiple times in the past. “Market memory” is something I expect to see come into play here.

With that being said, you do have to be cautious, and you do have to realize that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite. So therefore, you can’t get too aggressive in any one particular trade. The market is going to continue to be noisy, but at this point, I think it’s got a lot of work to do to continue the upward trajectory.

If we could rally rather significantly from here, the final target is probably 0.6650. Anything above there would almost certainly demand a complete change in the overall attitude of the Federal Reserve and its policy. At that point, you would have to be talking about Jerome Powell coming out and talking about cutting rates again. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is reflecting geopolitical concerns. And of course, the fact that the global economy seems to be stuck.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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• EUR/USD faltered once again above the 1.0700 hurdle.
• The Dollar staged a decent rebound amidst higher yields.
• The focus now shifts to USD Q1 GDP and PCE.

The bullish performance of the US Dollar (USD) sparked a mild knee-jerk in EUR/USD, which failed to extend the recent recovery further north of the 1.0710-1.0715 band on Wednesday.

The uptick in the Greenback followed auspicious prints from the US docket, while investors continued to adjust to the potential timing of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, now anticipated to occur in September, although the possibility of a move in July hasn’t been completely discarded.

The resurgence of bid bias in the US Dollar coincided with a similar bounce in US yields across various timeframes and a consistent narrative emphasizing the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and other G10 central banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB).

In this context, recent statements from Board members leaned towards the ECB starting its easing cycle in June, with speculation circulating about three interest rate cuts (or 75 bos) for the remainder of the year. Conversely, the Fed is anticipated to implement its first interest rate reduction in September, although the possibility of a similar move in July cannot be entirely discounted.

Looking ahead, the relatively subdued economic fundamentals in the Eurozone, combined with the resilience of the US economy, reinforce expectations for a stronger Dollar in the medium term, especially considering the likelihood that the ECB may initiate rate cuts before the Fed. In such a scenario, EUR/USD is expected to experience a more pronounced decline in the relatively medium-term horizon.

In the domestic calendar, the Business Climate in Germany gathered extra pace in April, which added to investors’ optimism in the wake of the earlier release of encouraging PMIs.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

On the upside, EUR/USD is projected to encounter early resistance at the crucial 200-day SMA of 1.0809, seconded by the April peak of 1.0885 (April 9), the March high of 1.0981 (March 8), and the weekly top of 1.0998 (January 11), all before hitting the psychological barrier of 1.1000.

Looking southwards, the breach of the 2024 low of 1.0601 (April 16) might signal a return to the November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1), which comes before the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023). Once this area is reached, a visit to the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3) may begin to form before the round milestone of 1.0400.

The 4-hour chart indicates that the bullish trend has remained in place. The first up-barrier is at 1.0714, followed by the 100-SMA of 1.0727 and finally 1.0756. Meanwhile, the initial support is at 1.0601, followed by 1.0516. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to the proximity of 59.

• EUR/USD faltered once again above the 1.0700 hurdle.
• The Dollar staged a decent rebound amidst higher yields.
• The focus now shifts to USD Q1 GDP and PCE.

The bullish performance of the US Dollar (USD) sparked a mild knee-jerk in EUR/USD, which failed to extend the recent recovery further north of the 1.0710-1.0715 band on Wednesday.

The uptick in the Greenback followed auspicious prints from the US docket, while investors continued to adjust to the potential timing of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, now anticipated to occur in September, although the possibility of a move in July hasn’t been completely discarded.

The resurgence of bid bias in the US Dollar coincided with a similar bounce in US yields across various timeframes and a consistent narrative emphasizing the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and other G10 central banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB).

In this context, recent statements from Board members leaned towards the ECB starting its easing cycle in June, with speculation circulating about three interest rate cuts (or 75 bos) for the remainder of the year. Conversely, the Fed is anticipated to implement its first interest rate reduction in September, although the possibility of a similar move in July cannot be entirely discounted.

Looking ahead, the relatively subdued economic fundamentals in the Eurozone, combined with the resilience of the US economy, reinforce expectations for a stronger Dollar in the medium term, especially considering the likelihood that the ECB may initiate rate cuts before the Fed. In such a scenario, EUR/USD is expected to experience a more pronounced decline in the relatively medium-term horizon.

In the domestic calendar, the Business Climate in Germany gathered extra pace in April, which added to investors’ optimism in the wake of the earlier release of encouraging PMIs.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

On the upside, EUR/USD is projected to encounter early resistance at the crucial 200-day SMA of 1.0809, seconded by the April peak of 1.0885 (April 9), the March high of 1.0981 (March 8), and the weekly top of 1.0998 (January 11), all before hitting the psychological barrier of 1.1000.

Looking southwards, the breach of the 2024 low of 1.0601 (April 16) might signal a return to the November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1), which comes before the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023). Once this area is reached, a visit to the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3) may begin to form before the round milestone of 1.0400.

The 4-hour chart indicates that the bullish trend has remained in place. The first up-barrier is at 1.0714, followed by the 100-SMA of 1.0727 and finally 1.0756. Meanwhile, the initial support is at 1.0601, followed by 1.0516. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to the proximity of 59.

• Since yesterday’s session, the British pound has been recovering against the euro and US dollar currencies, after data showed the strength of the economic recovery in April, as well as the inflationary pressures facing businesses in the UK.
• According to forex trading platforms, the GBP/USD British Pound to US Dollar price moved towards the 1.2465 resistance level before settling around 1.2430 at the time of writing the analysis, awaiting new motivating factors to avoid further collapse.

According to trading, the pound sterling exchange rate recovered from its lowest level in several weeks in the minutes after the disclosure of the rise in the UK services PMI to 54.9 from 53.1 in April, exceeding expectations of 53.

S&P Global Market Intelligence, the producers of the PMI report, said: “Private sector activity in Britain expanded for the sixth consecutive month in April, as a strong recovery in services sector output helped offset a marginal decline in manufacturing output.” S&P Global added, “Output growth was supported by a strong rise in new order volumes and a modest acceleration in hiring, driven in each case by the services economy.”

Overall, the pound sterling has been under pressure in recent sessions due to the resurgence of expectations that a number of interest rate cuts will be made by the Bank of England in the coming months. Meanwhile, strong economic data could offset some of the recent weakness if it suggests to markets that the bank may need to proceed with caution when it comes to cutting interest rates. Commenting on the figures, Rob Wood, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The PMI suggests that the economy is in rude health.”

Indeed, the PMI survey points to a sharp rise in average cost burdens across the private sector, “with the rate of inflation rising sharply since March and the highest since May 2023.” For his part, the Bank of England Governor and Deputy Governor said last week that UK inflation is on track to hit the 2.0% target, justifying lower interest rates. However, if inflationary pressures start to build up again, the bank may consider delaying the first interest rate cut until August. These PMI figures suggest that there is justification for caution from the bank, which increasingly suggests that the battle against inflation has been won.

In this regard, Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex, says: “UK PMIs have just been added to the data set that makes Bailey’s recent comments, especially Ramsden’s, look out of sync. Long GBP positions look good here.”

The report adds that strong inflation in input prices was largely linked to rising employee wages, particularly in the hospitality and leisure sectors. Added, there are many survey respondents noted the pressure on labor costs from an annual increase of nearly 10% in the national living wage and an indirect impact on wage rewards for other employees.

For his part, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says that the improving picture of economic recovery is welcome news, but “upward pressure on inflation will increase concerns that a sustainable path for inflation below the target level has not yet been achieved.” George Buckley, economist at Nomura Bank, added: “UK PMIs confirm strong activity, and output prices continue to fall, despite input prices rising sharply. We stand by our view that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates only in August.”

Overall, if the market takes this view, it is possible that expectations of interest rate cuts could be slightly reduced from here as June is fully priced in, which could mean that the pound sterling’s lows are within reach. But Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Rob Wood says these results won’t provide the weight of evidence needed to get the bank off its June cutting track.

In general, the timing of the first interest rate cut by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has become relatively data-independent from our point of view. In other words, the bar for cutting is low. Missing small data points and signs of continued modest inflation will not derail the MPC. Accordingly, we still expect the MPC to cut rates in June, then again in September and December, and signs of stubborn service sector inflation could limit further cuts thereafter.

• 

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the performance on the daily chart, the gains in the price of the British pound against the US dollar “GBP/USD” did not exit the currency pair from the general downward trend. A first break may occur over that time period if the currency pair moves towards the resistance levels of 1.2550 and 1.2700, respectively.

Otherwise, the chances of a decline will remain stronger, especially since the Bank of England officials have increased the pressure on the sterling regarding the date of the interest rate cut, which contradicts the US Federal Reserve. This may ensure that the bears control the direction of the currency pair for a period of time. Currently, the opportunity for the sterling dollar to return towards the psychological support of 1.2300 is possible again.

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• Despite daily Japanese warnings about the imminent date of intervention in the Forex currency markets to prevent further collapse of the Japanese yen exchange rate, the upward trend of the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen “USD/JPY” is getting stronger.
• It is currently around the 155.00 resistance, its highest level in 34 years.
• Currently, it seems that the markets see the intervention as being verbal now. In addition to intervention in currency markets, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged next Friday, with investors focusing on any hints of a less pessimistic bias with the yen trading around its lowest level in 34 years.

Governor Kazuo Ueda and his fellow board members are expected to keep Japan’s short-term interest rate at around 0% to 0.1% at the end of the two-day policy meeting, after the Japanese central bank paused its massive monetary easing program last month, according to all the economists surveyed.

Just five weeks into this massive shift, Ueda faces the challenge of striking a delicate balance between setting a floor for the yen while also supporting the fragile economic recovery. In general, the yen has surprised Japanese authorities by falling even after Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007. A weak currency could fuel inflation caused by rising costs, and some executives at companies that have benefited from the lower currency have begun to express concerns about the overall impact.

This has left market players more focused on whether the bank might send a clearer signal for policy normalization this time. In this regard, Ryutaro Kono, chief Japanese economist at BNP Paribas SA, said: “The risks are increasing for early loading of interest rate hikes in June or July.” He added, “The Japanese yen is likely to continue to decline gradually,” as the government believes that intervention is insufficient to change course considering the strong American economic data and the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

For his part, the Japanese Finance Minister repeated his warnings against excessive currency movements during his appearance before Parliament on Tuesday. Shunichi Suzuki said, “I think it is fair to assume that the environment is appropriate to take appropriate action on Forex, although I will not say what the action is.”

The Bank of Japan’s latest quarterly inflation forecast, and its risk assessment are among the easiest ways for the central bank to exploit the possibility of an early rate hike. Other potential areas include bond-buying plans and the language the central bank uses to describe its purchases, according to some market watchers.

The Bank of Japan governor has not ruled out responding to exchange rates through policy action if the impact on prices is “non-negligible.” The yen fell to 154.85 against the dollar overnight, its weakest level since June 1990. Traders are on high alert for the possibility of Japanese officials returning to the market to buy their country’s currency, as they last did in 2022. For now, the Bank of Japan’s policy continues to weigh on the yen. Ueda has reiterated that he expects financial conditions to remain easy to ensure that there is no market disruption or economic recovery caused by the Bank of Japan’s policy pivot. Also, analysts say this message may have resonated strongly with markets.

Overall, bets by leveraged funds and asset managers on yen weakness have increased to over 173,000 contracts as of April 16, the highest on record in Commodity Futures Trading Commission data since 2006. Also, it is the largest short position among nine major currencies, according to Bloomberg calculations. This makes the yen vulnerable to a sudden rebound if the trend changes.

In addition, the recent rise in oil prices, coupled with the surprisingly strong results of spring wage negotiations, make it almost certain that inflation forecasts will be revised upwards. As a result, three-quarters of Bank of Japan watchers say that assessing the balance of risks, and whether upward risks have been highlighted, will be more important than usual this time. The bank said price risks were “generally balanced” in its previous January report.

Overall, any move by the Bank of Japan to support the yen could be overshadowed after a few hours of the policy announcement, with the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation reading due out next week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell taking centre stage as the US central bank wraps up its May 1 meeting.

• 

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

Technically, the general trend of the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen “USD/JPY” is still bullish, and its gains were sufficient to push all the technical indicators towards strong overbought levels. Therefore, we still prefer to sell the dollar against the yen from its current and higher record gains without risk. In the event of a Japanese intervention in the markets, it may the currency pair is exposed to strong selling operations to take profits, with the trend quickly turning downward.

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• EUR/USD edged lower to the 1.0700 area in the European morning on Wednesday.
• The near-term technical outlook remains slightly bullish.
• US economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders data for March.

EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 early Wednesday after closing in positive territory on Tuesday.

The disappointing PMI data from the US triggered a US Dollar (USD) selloff in the American session on Tuesday and allowed EUR/USD to push higher. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in April’s flash estimate and the Services PMI declined to 50.9 from 51.7 in March.

Early Wednesday, the cautious market stance supports the USD and makes it difficult for EUR/USD to build on Tuesday’s gains. 

Meanwhile, the data from Germany showed that IFO – Business Climate Index improved to 89.4 in April from 87.9, while the Current Assessment Index rose to 88.9 from 88.1. Although these figures failed to provide a boost to the Euro, they seem to be helping the currency limit its losses. 

Later in the day, Durable Goods Orders data for March will be featured in the US economic docket. In case this data comes in weaker than forecast, the USD could lose traction in the second half of the day.

Investors will also continue to pay close attention to the action in the US stock markets. A continuation of the risk rally could put additional weight on the USD’s shoulders.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Despite the latest pullback, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart stays above the 50-period SMA after completing a bullish cross on Tuesday. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays above 50.

On the downside, 1.0650 (static level, 50-period SMA) aligns as first support before 1.0600 (static level). In case the pair manages to stabilize above 1.0700 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend), technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 1.0730 (100-period SMA) could be seen as next resistance before 1.0750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0790 – 1.0800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period SMA).

 

• EUR/USD edged lower to the 1.0700 area in the European morning on Wednesday.
• The near-term technical outlook remains slightly bullish.
• US economic docket will feature Durable Goods Orders data for March.

EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 early Wednesday after closing in positive territory on Tuesday.

The disappointing PMI data from the US triggered a US Dollar (USD) selloff in the American session on Tuesday and allowed EUR/USD to push higher. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in April’s flash estimate and the Services PMI declined to 50.9 from 51.7 in March.

Early Wednesday, the cautious market stance supports the USD and makes it difficult for EUR/USD to build on Tuesday’s gains. 

Meanwhile, the data from Germany showed that IFO – Business Climate Index improved to 89.4 in April from 87.9, while the Current Assessment Index rose to 88.9 from 88.1. Although these figures failed to provide a boost to the Euro, they seem to be helping the currency limit its losses. 

Later in the day, Durable Goods Orders data for March will be featured in the US economic docket. In case this data comes in weaker than forecast, the USD could lose traction in the second half of the day.

Investors will also continue to pay close attention to the action in the US stock markets. A continuation of the risk rally could put additional weight on the USD’s shoulders.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Despite the latest pullback, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart stays above the 50-period SMA after completing a bullish cross on Tuesday. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays above 50.

On the downside, 1.0650 (static level, 50-period SMA) aligns as first support before 1.0600 (static level). In case the pair manages to stabilize above 1.0700 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend), technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 1.0730 (100-period SMA) could be seen as next resistance before 1.0750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0790 – 1.0800 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period SMA).

 

GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 10.02.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as the Forex markets continue to be very choppy. Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is doing everything it can to keep interest rates down, meaning that they are buying unlimited bonds in that country, which is essentially the same thing is printing currency. This quantitative easing makes the Japanese yen less attractive, and although we have seen a major run toward it as of late, every time global interest rate spike just a bit, people freak out and run right back toward the other currencies.

I think that continues to be the game going forward, and therefore it’s likely to continue to be a very noisy currency pair. The ¥160 level above will more likely than not cause a bit of resistance, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we attempt to take that out. If we do, the ¥161.50 level will be a major barrier that we have to contend with. If we can break above that level, the 200-Day EMA is sitting right there as well.

In other words, I think we probably continue to be choppy more than anything else, so I’m not necessarily looking for a huge run one way or the other. I think this continues to be more of a back-and-forth type of market, and I also believe that is probably true with most currency pairs around the world. Ultimately, short-term range bound trading will more likely than not continue to be the norm in this pair.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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The GBP/USD pair edged up slightly by 0.04%, currently trading at 1.2455. The exchange rate is just above its pivot point of 1.2419, which serves as a critical indicator for future price movements.

The pair encounters immediate resistance at 1.2487, with subsequent thresholds at 1.2569 and 1.2641. These levels could act as ceilings to further advances. On the downside, the support levels are marked at 1.2367, 1.2302, and 1.2225, potentially providing bounce points should the pair retreat.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2445 offers near support, closely aligning with today’s price, while the 200-Day EMA at 1.2565 poses a longer-term resistance level. The GBP/USD outlook remains positive as long as it stays above 1.2419.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.