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15 04, 2024

USD Surges As Markets Slash Fed Rate Cut Bets

By |2024-04-15T07:20:20+02:00April 15, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate trended lower last week amid hotter-than-forecast American inflation and shifting interest rate cut bets.

The pairing closed the week at around $1.2494.

The US Dollar (USD) fell as Monday’s session opened, as a mixed market mood initially stifled the safe-haven currency’s movements. As market sentiment grew more upbeat, USD slumped to a two-week low against some of its peers, while a decline in US Treasury yields simultaneously dented the ‘greenback’. However, with risk appetite souring later in the session, USD’s losses were cushioned amid a move towards safer currencies.

On Tuesday, a lack of notable releases saw USD struggle once more as a cautiously upbeat spell of trade permeated global markets.

Following this, the release of the latest US consumer price index on Wednesday saw USD surge against its rivals, as inflation printed above forecasts. Headline inflation rose more than economists had expected, jumping from 3.2% to 3.5%, while core inflation held steady at 3.8%, rather than easing as forecast. The hotter-than-expected print saw markets significantly dial back their Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, snuffing out any hopes that the Fed could lower its base rate in June.

Thursday then saw USD retreat slightly amid increased profit taking, as investors sought to cash in on the US Dollar’s five-month high. In addition to this, an improving market mood further stymied the ‘greenback’.

USD then ended the week on a strong note as ongoing push back against Fed rate cuts continued to boost the ‘greenback’.

Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Falter amid Lacklustre Growth

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The Pound (GBP) struggled to find a clear direction as the week opened amid a lack of UK economic releases. Meanwhile, an improving appetite for risk saw the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound trade in a wide range against its peers, falling against its riskier rivals, while firming against its safe-haven peers.

Tuesday’s session saw much of the same for Sterling, with a UK data lull leaving GBP rudderless against its major rivals. Market risk dynamics served as the core catalyst of GBP movement throughout the session.

An ongoing lack of macroeconomic releases on Wednesday saw Sterling fall against the US Dollar as gloomy trade stifled the riskier currency.

On Thursday, the Pound managed to edge higher against some of its rivals, as Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene pushed back against interest rate cuts.

Greene argued that stubborn UK inflation could see the central bank favour restrictive monetary policy in the coming months, lifting Sterling. However, GBP ultimately declined against its major peers as the session progressed.

The UK’s latest GDP report then printed on Friday, showing that the UK economy grew less-than-forecast, expanding by 0.1% in February. While economists noted the data shows economic ascent from last year’s technical recession, the lacklustre reading indicated ongoing economic fragility, ultimately leaving GBP rangebound as the week drew to a close.

Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Outlook: US Retail Data to Dent the ‘greenback’?

Looking ahead, the latest US retail sales data is due for release on Monday afternoon. Forecast to edge lower in March to 0.3%, decreased consumer activity could weigh on USD exchange rates.

For the Pound, the UK’s latest unemployment rate is due to edge slightly higher to 4% on Tuesday, which may deter investor interest.

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14 04, 2024

USD to Remain Supported via Fed, ECB Policy Divergence

By |2024-04-14T21:14:37+02:00April 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Bullish US Dollar Forecast (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY):

  • The mighty dollar is back as CPI data impacts policy paths
  • EUR/USD at risk after the ECB laid out the conditions for lowering rates
  • GBP/USD decline may extend if wage, inflation data softens in the week ahead
  • US CPI catalyst sends USD/JPY into the danger zone
  • Get your hands on the U.S. dollar Q2 outlook today for exclusive insights into key market catalysts that should be on every trader’s radar:

Recommended by Richard Snow

Get Your Free USD Forecast

The Mighty Dollar is Back as CPI Data Impacts Policy Paths

The US dollar has regained prominence in the FX market after hotter-then-expected CPI data forced a hawkish repricing of the world’s reserve currency. The CPI print was released on Wednesday, when prices were trading above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the major 2023 decline and above the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages. In the lead up to the print there was a notable departure between US yields and the dollar, opening up the possibility for the greenback to bridge the gap really quickly, which it did.

Since then, the dollar index has skyrocketed, taking out multiple levels of resistance as markets shaved off another rate cut this year – anticipating less than 50 basis points worth of cuts which implies only one cut expected before year end. The dollar is also likely to remain supported amidst the anticipated escalation in the Middle East with US President Joe Biden announcing that he expects an imminent attack by Iran in response to Israel’s strike on an Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Outside of the conflict, the differing directions of travel for the Fed and ECB highlight a worsening outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the potential for further upside on USD/JPY although that particular pair is fraught with risk at such elevated levels.

US Dollar Basket (DXY) Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

EUR/USD at Risk after the ECB Laid out the Conditions for Lowering Rates

The ECB statement confirmed that the governing council will not pre-commit to any rate path but will instead respond to incoming data. However, this hasn’t put a stop to prominent ECB officials from communicating a preference for a June cut. But it was the doves that ultimately found joy in the statement due to the acknowledgement that interest rates will be lowered if inflation dynamics fill the committee with greater confidence that general price pressures are heading towards the target.

EUR/USD powered through the 50 and 200-day SMAs, falling through the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 2023 decline, and the 1.0700 psychological whole number. The descent even witnessed a close below the 23.6% Fib retracement, potentially opening up a move towards the 2023 low. One thing standing in its way is the aggressive nature of the move which places the pair on the very edge of entering oversold territory (RSI).

The medium-term outlook still points to a weaker EUR/USD but in the interim, considering the near oversold conditions and the lack of high impact US economic data next week, the pair may ease back slightly as traders reassess the situation. Furthermore, a positive ZEW figure could help the euro claw back some of the recent losses as general sentiment and confidence indices appear to have turned the corner for the better.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

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GBP/USD Decline May Extend on Softer Wage, Inflation Data

Cable, like EUR/USD has dropped sharply, providing the most convincing breakdown attempt since early April and February before that. Previous attempts failed to close below the prior swing low of 1.2500, until now.

The bearish move has the potential to extend late into next week should UK inflation and wage growth data ease. The Bank of England (BoE) forecasted that inflation will drop sharply to the 2% target by mid-year, meaning a rate cut may be closer than the market currently anticipates. In the event we see more encouraging data in the week ahead, sterling may feel the pressure and continue to weaken against the firm greenback.

Recent downside targets for the pound are difficult to come by, which opens up a path towards 1.2200 which is currently a very long distance away. The RSI could enter oversold territory in the coming week and remains something to monitor in the event of a shorter-term retracement.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

Currency pairs have unique idiosyncrasies that ought to be understood by all who trade them. Discover these by reading our dedicated GBP/USD trading guide below:

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CPI Catalyst Sends USD/JPY into the Danger Zone

US inflation data provided the launchpad for the latest bullish move in USD/JPY, into a very dangerous zone. It has been well documented that 152.00 was the highest level that Japanese officials could tolerate before intervening in the FX market to strengthen the Japanese yen.

The recent move failed to induce a harsher response from currency officials who have voiced their displeasure with unfavourable, volatile moves. At the end of March, the Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that authorities could take ‘decisive steps’ in his strongest warning to the FX market this year. However, the more recent advance has not yet seen more urgent warnings from the ministry of finance.

USD/JPY suffers from a lack of recent upside target levels, with the next best indication at the April 1990 high of 160.00. Former FX diplomat, Watanabe suggested the authorities may not intervene until the pair reaches 155.00 but even if that is the case, chasing the market higher from here poses a terrible risk-to-reward ratio. Prior intervention saw the yen claw back around 500 pips in the moments that followed the decisive action and eventually saw a sustained decline in USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

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— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX



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14 04, 2024

Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast to Recover to 1.10: Nomura

By |2024-04-14T19:10:45+02:00April 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

April 14, 2024 – Written by Frank Davies

Following this week’s developments, US Dollar bears have been forced into hibernation. ING has dropped its forecast that the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will trade above 1.10 this year.

MUFG added; “We see further declines ahead.”

EUR/USD posted sharp loses on the week as markets reassessed the outlook for US interest rates while the ECB action met dovish expectations.

The main event of the week was the latest US inflation data.

Headline consumer prices increased 0.4% on the month with the year-on-year inflation rate increasing to 3.5% from 3.2% and compared with consensus forecasts of 3.4%.

Core prices also increased 0.4% for the month compared with expectations of 0.3% with the annual rate unchanged at 3.8% and above forecasts of 3.7%.

The data triggered a sharp shift in expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rates with a June cut now seen as unlikely while banks also lowered the number of cuts expected.

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Goldman Sachs commented; “We believe the Fed will remain on hold at the current fed funds rate range of 5.25-5.5% until the first 25bp cut in July, after which we expect rate cuts to proceed at a quarterly pace with the next 25bp cut in November. Deutsche Bank added; “Recent developments – namely, upside inflation prints, solid labor market data, and easing financial conditions – have clearly diminished the case for commencing rate cuts.”

Deutsche now expects that the first rate cut will come in December.

ING pointed to the global context; “The hot US CPI was the trigger to a substantial dollar rally, but the dovish (even if moderate) shift in the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada messaging has now made that rally more sustainable. Both banks have given a nod to market bets for a rate cut in June, and rightly so given the considerably more encouraging domestic inflation outlook than in the US.

It added; “As things stand now, the Federal Reserve looks unlikely to match that same dovishness, and the case for a growing divergence between an immobile FOMC and a bunch of dovish central banks is getting stronger. That implies a stronger dollar.”

The ECB held interest rates at 4.5% while preparing markets for a near-term rate cut with string hints over a move in June.

According to MUFG; “The degree in which the ECB was willing to signal a possible June cut was certainly as explicit as you could get with the statement undergoing considerable changes that laid out in essence conditions that merely have to continue as they are.”

It added; “President Lagarde repeats that the ECB does not target FX levels – we see increasing scope for further EUR/USD declines.

Danske expects underlying US out-performance; “We believe the US economy is fundamentally in a stronger position relative to the euro area, based on factors such as relative terms of trade, real rates, and relative unit labour costs. Additionally, there are clear signs that underlying inflation appears more persistent in the US compared with the euro area.”

In this context, Danske added; “A strong USD, coupled with tighter financial conditions, is necessary for the Fed to sustainably achieve its inflation target of 2%. Our forecast for EUR/USD on a 12M horizon is 1.05.”

Credit Agricole took a similar view; “We expect the ECB to start cutting rates earlier and more aggressively than the Fed and thus head into seemingly uncharted territory for EUR/USD this year.

It added; “The downside risks for EUR/USD could also grow if comparisons between the current episode and the US no-landing in 1995 (when the Fed cut only three times) continue and encourage investors to pare back rate cut expectations even further.”

Nomura is sticking to its view at this stage; “we maintain a modestly bullish view of EUR/USD recovering to 1.10, while we will be nimble on this thinking, depending on the upcoming HICP results.”

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14 04, 2024

Pound to Dollar Week Ahead Outlook: Banks Downgrade GBP/USD Forecasts

By |2024-04-14T17:08:54+02:00April 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

April 14, 2024 – Written by David Woodsmith

Investment banks overall have tended to downgrade their Pound to Dollar exchange rate forecasts (GBP/USD).

Credit Agricole and RBC Capital Markets were already forecasting 1.25 and 1.24 respectively for the end of 2024. ING has now dropped its forecast of GBP/USD gains to 1.30 or higher this year and is backing 1.25.

The decisive development this week was stronger than expected US inflation data.

The data triggered an important re-assessment of Federal Reserve expectations and the dollar posted sharp gains.

According to Nordea; “High US CPI data delivered another blow to any hopes of quick rate cuts, at least by the Fed.”

In this environment, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 4-month lows below 1.2430.

Another important element during the week was sharp gain in gold and commodity prices which helped push the FTSE 100 index to above the 8,000 level.

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Strength in risk appetite did help save the Pound from further punishment. Headline US consumer prices increased 0.4% on the month with the year-on-year inflation rate increasing to 3.5% from 3.2% and compared with consensus forecasts of 3.4%.

Core prices also increased 0.4% for the month compared with expectations of 0.3% with the annual rate unchanged at 3.8% and above forecasts of 3.7%.

The data triggered a sharp shift in expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rates with a June cut now seen as unlikely, although not ruled out completely.

A cut is not priced in until September with some banks contemplating no cut at all this year.

According to Bank of America; “The acceleration of inflation this year makes a cut prior to December challenging in our view.”

There was an important impact on yield spreads.

ING noted; “Markets are now pricing US rates higher than the UK equivalent in two years’ time, which hasn’t been true for the majority of the last two years.”

This shift in expectations will have an impact on the Pound.

As far as the UK is concerned, ING notes the importance of near-term inflation data, especially the April figures released in May.

There will be a favourable impact from falling retail energy prices, but the services component will also be important, especially with the annual increases for annual contract-linked prices coming through.

The bank added; “Until we’ve seen that data – and unless the BoE comes out strongly in favour of a June rate cut at its early-May meeting – we’re narrowly favouring an August start.”

ING does expect substantial BoE cuts over the medium term; “to some extent, we’re splitting hairs, and the more important point is that the totality of the rate cutting cycle is likely to be a little larger than markets are currently pricing.

It forecasts that rates will eventually decline to 3% or slightly lower while markets are forecasting 3.55%.

This leaves the potential for a shift in expectations which will undermine the Pound.

MUFG is more positive on the Pound; “Appetite for buying the pound is picking up with investors clearly seeing the signs of improvement and the potential for inflation coming down but for the BoE to be more cautious than most other G10 central banks in cutting rates.”

Credit Agricole is wary over diverging yield spreads; “We continue to worry that the support for GBP/USD from the relative GBP-USD rate spread continues to crumble after the red-hot US CPI print forced investors to further pare back their Fed rate cut expectations.”

It added; “This happened despite the fact that the UK rates markets have also reduced their BoE rate cut expectations albeit to a lesser extent. We therefore maintain a cautious stance on GBP/USD in the near term.”

RBC is still fretting over fundamentals; “the fiscal backdrop is still constrained, amid a tight spending profile & rising demand for public services, and any deterioration in policy credibility will leave GBP vulnerable.”

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14 04, 2024

GBP/JPY Weekly Forecast – British Pound Continues to Attempt to Break Out Against Yen

By |2024-04-14T11:06:46+02:00April 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 22.05.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The British pound has had a very strong week, breaking well above the ¥170 level to show signs of life again. By doing so, the market looks as if it is ready to break above the recent highs, and as I write this article, it is in the process of attempting to do so. I like buying the pound against the Japanese yen on either the actual breakdown or short-term pullbacks. I certainly would not be a seller of this pair, as it is so bullish. With that being the case, the route that I plan on taking is finding value on dips to get long, but I also recognize that simply buying and holding might be a way that traders can take advantage of this pair.

Underneath, I see the ¥170 level as potential support, followed by the ¥168 level. The size of the candlestick does suggest that perhaps we will have plenty of momentum that we can take advantage of, and therefore I think it’s probably a situation where we should have plenty of opportunities in the future. After all, the Bank of Japan continues to engage in quantitative easing, which is toxic for a currency. At the same time, the Bank of England is practicing tight monetary policy, which sets up for a perfect move. That being said, you don’t want to get over levered into the market because this one does tend to be very erratic under the best of circumstances, and we need to always take caution when trading this pair. However, it’s got a definite upward bias.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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14 04, 2024

pound sterling outlook as the DXY index spikes

By |2024-04-14T09:05:57+02:00April 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

2024-04-14 02:14:31 ET

The GBP/USD pair continued plunging last week as the

US dollar index



(DXY) surge gained steam. It retreated to 1.2445, its lowest level since November last year as hopes of swift interest rate cuts by the Fed faded.

UK inflation numbers ahead

The GBP/USD pair joined other forex majors in a major dive last week after a series of strong US economic numbers.

A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the

country created over 300k jobs in March

while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.

A separate report showed that the country’s inflation continued rising in March. The headline

Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 3.5%

while the core inflation rose to 3.8%.

There is a likelihood that inflation will continue rising this month as gasoline prices remain at a stubbornly high. The escalation crisis in the Middle East will escalate the situation.

The two numbers are important because jobs and inflation form part of the Fed’s dual mandate. As a result, there is a possibility that the Fed will not implement the rate cuts it had planned in the past meetings.

A look at CME data shows that most economists don’t expect a rate cut to happen in June as they were expecting.

Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair will react to several important economic numbers from the UK this week. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest jobs numbers on Tuesday.

Most importantly, it will publish the March consumer and producer inflation numbers. Economists believe that the headline UK CPI retreated from 3.4% to 3.1% on a YoY basis. Core inflation is expected to move to 4.1%.

There are signs that UK’s inflation will continue falling as energy prices drop. A report published last week showed that energy prices will fall further than previously expected. Wholesale prices will drop to £82 a megawatt-hour this year, 27% below the expectation.

Therefore, if this trend continues, there is a likelihood that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD technical analysis

gbp/usd


GBP/USD chart by TradingView

The GBP to USD pair formed a double-top pattern around the 1.2830 level between January and March. It has now crashed below the neckline of this pattern at 1.2520, its lowest swing on February 5th.

Further, the pair has moved below the 50-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing the oversold level at 30. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is extremely bearish, which could see it crash to the support at 1.2300.

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GBP/USD forecast: pound sterling outlook as the DXY index spikes

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14 04, 2024

EUR Now Unlikely To Trade Above 1.10 This Year Say ING

By |2024-04-14T05:01:42+02:00April 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Foreign exchange analysts at ING have been bearish on the US Dollar over the medium term, but it has been forced to adjust its outlook and no longer forecasts that the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will trade above 1.10 in 2024.

The primary reason for the change is that yield spreads have moved sharply in favour of the dollar.

EUR/USD has already weakened to 5-month lows below 1.0670 and ING considers that there would have been further losses were it not for a slightly more optimistic outlook for the global economy and robust risk appetite.

Overall US data releases have remained generally firm with no evidence of a hard landing at this stage.

The latest US inflation data was again stronger than expected which has triggered a further shift in expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rates with only a small chance of a June cut and the risk of less than two rate cuts this year.

ING also has a flat profile at 1.10 for 2025, although there is a high degree of uncertainty, especially given the US election this year and possibility of a Trump victory.

The bank notes that a loose fiscal policy and protectionist stance could be dollar-positive, although there would also be the risk of a rapid reversal if confidence in the US slides.

Key Quotes:
“Given the more substantial changes being made to our Fed profile this month, we feel that now is the right time to cut back our end 2024 EUR/USD forecast to 1.10, which is consensus.”

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“Yet the reality is that real interest rate spreads have been steadily widening in favour of the dollar over recent months.”
“For USD/JPY, we are particularly revising up our 2025 profile given the view of our US rate strategy team that a term premium will probably have returned to US Treasury markets by this time.”

“Presumably opinion polls coming in after the summer break will start to weigh on FX markets.”

“A looser fiscal/tighter monetary policy mix under Donald Trump would likely be seen as more dollar-positive, although investors will be wary of debt sustainability.”

“Additionally, US protectionism during a US slowdown has not always ended well for the dollar; just think back to the early 1990s!”

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14 04, 2024

End-2025 Pound Sterling Forecast Cut Sharply Vs Dollar At RBC

By |2024-04-14T03:01:11+02:00April 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Previously, RBC Capital Markets had forecast that the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) would end 2025 at 1.26.

With underlying concerns over UK fundamentals and a stronger dollar profile, the forecast has now been cut to 1.19. The end-2024 forecast is 1.24.

RBC looks at the medium-term UK fundamentals and still considers that the Pound is vulnerable with pressure for interest rate cuts.

Looking at 2025, the bank looks at the potential stresses on fiscal policy.

In its March budget the current government claimed that it would meet its medium-term fiscal rules on budgets deficits and debt, but this has only been achieved by projecting a very tight squeeze on spending from 2025 onwards.

If these plans are maintained there will be a sharp negative contribution to the economy from fiscal policy.

There will be an election by early 2025 and RBC notes that an incoming Labour government would look to ease policy, but it expects scope for manoeuvre without triggering a slide in market confidence is likely to be limited.

RBC also expects that the Federal Reserve will be cautious in cutting rates and the dollar is likely to remain a high-yielding currency over the medium term.

In this context, its 2025 dollar forecasts have been revised higher.

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The end-2025 GBP/EUR exchange rate forecast has, however, been adjusted to 1.10 from 1.07.

Key Quotes:
“The BoE’s March meeting had a clear dovish tilt, with both hawkish dissenters throwing in the towel (8-1 vote).”

“Sonia responded accordingly with markets now priced for more than a 50/50 chance of a cut by May.”

“Perhaps GBP’s resilience reflects the fact that even with the forward curve pricing in 72bps of cuts by year end, the pace is similar to the Fed (-71 as we go to press) and less than the ECB (-89bps).”

“Technically, GBP/USD has been trapped in a sideways trading range between 1.2500 and 1.2900 since December.”

“The factors that would cause material GBP upside, such as single market or customs union membership, do not appear to be in play for the UK on any kind of investable horizon.”

“We have flattened out our EUR/GBP profile for 2025, in line with our flatter profile for EUR/USD but retain the view that the risks to GBP are skewed to the downside as long as the UK’s imbalances still require persistent capital inflows.”

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13 04, 2024

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Fed’s Delayed Cut Weighs on Pound

By |2024-04-13T12:53:06+02:00April 13, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The dollar rallied amid a drop in rate cut expectations.
  • Markets now predict only two Fed rate cuts this year.
  • Next week, investors will focus on retail sales data from the US and the UK.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is pointing southward, with the Fed expected to hang tight before making any moves to slash interest rates.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar rallied amid a drop in rate cut expectations. The major event this week was the US inflation report. When it came out, investors were surprised by another month of higher-than-expected price growth. Moreover, it came after a blockbuster jobs report showing a robust labor market. 

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Consequently, there was a sharp adjustment in Fed rate cut expectations. Markets now predict only two rate cuts this year, starting in September. Inflation in the US has proven to be more stubborn than other major economies. This put the dollar in a better position than the pound.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Fed’s Delayed Cut Weighs on Pound

 

Next week, investors will focus on retail sales data from the US and the UK. Furthermore, the UK will release data on employment and inflation. All focus will be on the UK CPI report, which will show the state of price growth in the economy. The recent US inflation report has put the GBP/USD pair in a weak position as the timing for the first Fed cut has moved to September.

Therefore, traders will wait to see whether the Bank of England will be in a position to cut interest rates before the Fed. A decline in UK inflation would further weaken the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Price signals impending rectangle breakout

GBP/USD weekly technical forecastGBP/USD weekly technical forecast
GBP/USD daily chart

 

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is on the verge of breaking out of its rectangle pattern. Moreover, the bias is bearish as the price falls well below the 22-SMA, and the RSI is approaching the oversold region. 

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The previous bullish trend paused when the price reached the 1.2801 key resistance level. It then consolidated with the 1.2801 level as resistance and the 1.2500 level as support. There has been a surge in momentum that has pushed the price to the 0.5 Fib retracement level.

If the price closes below the rectangle support, it will likely fall to the 0.618 Fib retracement level. Moreover, the path will be clear for the price to reach the 1.2201 support level.

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13 04, 2024

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Continues to Probe Higher Against the Japanese Yen

By |2024-04-13T10:52:21+02:00April 13, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 19.06.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has probed higher against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday, as it looks like the greenback is going to continue to be very resilient against the Japanese yen. This makes a certain amount of sense considering that the Bank of Japan has failed to take decisive action yet again, as they seemingly are completely open to the idea of staying loose for the foreseeable future. If that’s going to be the case, then the Japanese yen is going to lose to almost all currencies, the US dollar included.

It’s worth noting that we just broke out of a massive bullish flag, and it does measure for a move all the way to the ¥148 level. After that, we could go to ¥150, and I certainly think at this point in time that most traders at least have that idea on the back of their head. The market certainly looks as if it is a “buy on the dips” situation, with the bullish flag offering a bit of support, and it certainly looks as if we are getting ready to take off to the upside given enough time. Not only does the flag offer support, but we also have the ¥138 level underneath there offering a potential floor in the market as well.

Keep in mind that level was the previous resistance barrier of the ascending triangle, and therefore a certain amount of “market memory” comes into the picture. Speaking of the ascending triangle, it also measures for a move to roughly ¥148, so I think it all lined up quite nicely and it’s probably only a matter of time before the search for yield continues to carry this pair higher as it is essentially the “carry trade” of old. It’s not until we break down below the ¥138 level on a daily close that I would be concerned about the overall trend. At this point, it does not look like we have any real threat of that, so I like the idea of going long in this pair over the longer term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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