Goldman Sachs forecasts for USD/JPY:

• 3 months 155 (the prior forecast for 3 months out was 145)
• 6 months 150 (prior 142)
• 12 months 145 (prior 140)

These are from a GS note sent to client on Friday.

GS cite a “benign macro risk environment” for its bearish view on yen. GS analysts also say they don’t expect rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to lift the yen:

• “If anything, the anticipation of adjustment cuts has reduced the probability of the recession risks that tend to activate the yen’s safe-haven appeal.”

Over the past many, many months Goldman Sachs have been a stand out amongst analysts in not expecting a US recession, the firm has consistently had its recession probability forecast well under consensus.

USD/JPY update as of Friday afternoon, US time:

The Shiba Inu team lead, known by the pseudonym Shytoshi Kusama, seems to be continuing with his travels around the globe. The SHIB community keeps watching his location tags changing on X/Twitter.

The most recent one has raised a heated and rather humorous discussion among members of the SHIB community. Here’s where the mysterious Shytoshi Kusama has been spotted this time around.

Kusama heads for the Maldives, here’s potential reason

Japanese SHIB army member @kuro_9696_9696 has tweeted to spread the word about Shytoshi Kusama’s new location – the Maldives.

On March 19, he was spotted in New York City thanks to X, and prior to that, in March, his location tags on Twitter included Japan, Hong Kong, Puerto Rico and several cities in the U.S. SHIB’s lead developer Kaal Dhairya has also been moving around – his location tag showed Dubai.

Last year, one of Kusama’s location tags showed that he visited Niseko, Japan. At about the same time, he published a message in Discord saying that he was taking a chance to relax and enjoy himself “just like everyone else.” The SHIB community concluded that Shiba Inu lead and Ryoshi’s partner in building SHIB was finally on vacation. Since the Maldives is also known as a popular resort destination, odds are that Shytoshi Kusama is also relaxing on the beach at the moment.

In the comments thread, some users giggled at Kusama moving from one country to another so fast, saying things like: “I’m convinced Shy’s a pilot or he’s flying on Shiba airlines” and “Since Shytoshi is a Saiyan, he can fly at high speed.”

SHIB burn rate plunges

According to data shared by Shibburn, within the last 24 hours, the SHIB army has succeeded in disposing of a large SHIB amount: almost 10 million. This is much smaller than was burned on Thursday though. The overall burn rate has plunged by more than 70%.

The two largest burn transactions on this list carried 4,111,000 and 4,000,000 SHIB to unspendable blockchain addresses.

In the meantime, activity on layer-2 blockchain Shibarium, which allows the SHIB army to conduct their personal SHIB burns, has dropped significantly recently. At the time of this writing, this metric has reached a low of 48,730 transactions.

In-depth Look at U.S. Gasoline Demand

A significant development impacting oil prices has been the unexpected decrease in U.S. gasoline demand. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the gasoline product supplied, a key demand indicator, fell to just below 9 million barrels per day. This figure represents a notable 4.5% drop from the previous week, highlighting a potential shift in energy consumption patterns in the U.S. The decrease is significant, given the historical link between gasoline demand and oil prices. The drop could suggest an overvaluation of demand strength, potentially signaling a reevaluation in market expectations and a reassessment of future price directions.

Geopolitical Events: Global Impact on Oil Supply

Geopolitical events have been central in influencing oil supply and market sentiment. The United States’ push for a U.N. resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza is particularly noteworthy. While mainly a diplomatic effort, such developments can significantly impact the oil market due to the region’s strategic importance in global oil supply. Historically, Middle Eastern geopolitical instability has often led to increased oil market volatility, with price surges reflecting concerns over supply disruptions.

Federal Reserve Policy and Its Economic Implications

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy continues to be a crucial factor in shaping market perceptions. The decision to maintain interest rates steady, with projections for three rate cuts within the year, could have a dual impact. On one side, lower interest rates might stimulate economic growth, potentially leading to increased oil demand. However, the real impact of these rate cuts will largely depend on the overall health of the global economy, which is currently showing mixed signals, with certain key economies displaying signs of slowing growth.

U.S. Dollar’s Role in Oil Market

The strength of the U.S. Dollar significantly influences crude oil prices. A stronger dollar, as seen following key global financial events like the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate cut, makes oil more expensive for non-dollar holders, thus potentially reducing international demand. This week’s strengthening of the dollar adds another layer of complexity to the market. The dollar’s strength inversely correlates with commodity prices, and as such, is crucial in determining oil demand and pricing on the global stage.

Short-Term Weekly Forecast

Looking ahead, the immediate outlook for WTI crude appears cautious. On one side, the reduction in U.S. gasoline demand suggests potential downward pressure on oil prices. On the other, geopolitical developments and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy might introduce counteracting factors. The market is at a critical juncture, with these elements likely to influence the direction of oil prices in the coming week. Market participants should closely monitor domestic consumption patterns and international geopolitical developments for insights into potential price movements, especially considering the heightened market sensitivity to these factors. The role of the U.S. Dollar in shaping international demand will also be key in the short-term direction of oil prices.

In a recent exchange on social media, Justin Bons, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency industry, addressed criticisms of the Solana blockchain, urging a more nuanced understanding of the platform’s evolution.

Bons acknowledged historical critiques of Solana (SOL) but emphasized the need to recognize the platform’s advancements and current capabilities. He encouraged critics to update their perspectives, noting that Solana has undergone significant development since its inception in 2020 and what may be called a renaissance in 2023.

Responding to concerns raised by another participant in the discussion, Bons clarified that he does not advocate ignoring Solana’s flaws. Instead, he highlighted areas for improvement, including issues with the fee market and potential decentralization challenges.

However, Bons pushed back against what he described as oversimplified criticisms, particularly regarding claims of centralization and an alleged off-switch. He stressed the importance of considering the nuanced nature of decentralization assessments within blockchain networks.

Scalability matters

In his remarks, Bons reiterated his support for Solana’s scaling initiatives, noting its commitment to on-chain scalability — an aspect he believes distinguishes it from other blockchain platforms.

The exchange reflects broader discussions within the cryptocurrency community regarding the strengths and weaknesses of various blockchain networks. As Solana continues to garner attention for its capabilities and first of all the rise of the SOL price by 1,643% in the past year and three months, conversations surrounding its development and potential shortcomings remain key topics of debate among industry experts.

Billy Markus, famous within the crypto community as a cofounder of the largest meme cryptocurrency Dogecoin, is a frequent user of social media platforms, especially X/Twitter, usually tweeting in a sarcastic manner or merely publishing memes.

Today, he touched on the subject of crypto trading and how profitable this may be. In his earlier tweets, Markus expressed many times what he thinks of crypto trading and long-term cryptocurrency investments.

Trolling crypto traders on X/Twitter

Today, one of the tweets published by Billy Markus features a picture with two monitors and a caption, stating: “My friend was losing money trading, until he bought a second screen. Now, he’s losing money twice as fast.” No crypto is mentioned, but Markus mostly comments in the crypto space, seldom extending his attention to traditional assets.

In his earlier tweets over the past couple of years, the Dogecoin creator stated multiple times that he does not believe in certain factors making crypto prices go up or down. According to his view, cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin in particular, is very volatile, and nobody really knows why BTC goes up or suddenly plunges.

The crypto community was pretty amused by his aforementioned tweet, leaving a bunch of comments under it.

Dogecoin founders did not get rich off DOGE

According to a statement made by Markus on X/Twitter a few years ago, the making of Dogecoin made neither him nor the second founder Jackson Palmer wealthy and did not even bring them any great amount of money.

This was a side project for both founders, and they created DOGE purely for fun and satire, according to Markus. However, he pointed out that modern meme coins are mostly created by developers to make profits. In a recent tweet, Markus stated that many meme coins do not even require teams of developers and take “2 seconds and a few cents to create.”

Despite that post about not making money on DOGE published in 2022, Markus has been frequently publishing tweets to refute rumors about the size of his wealth. Once he even disclosed how much Bitcoin he holds, and it proved to be 0.006 BTC and 220,000 DOGE.

Markus does not have a high opinion of hodling crypto either, and he made that clear in a recent tweet.

Based on on-chain data, a Bitcoin whale that has been accumulating on Bitcoin’s dip has made a significant purchase, acquiring 673 BTC.

According to Lookonchain, a Bitcoin whale withdrew 673 BTC worth $45.2 million from Binance in recent hours. Withdrawals from exchanges might indicate a desire to buy, while deposits indicate an intent to sell.

The said BTC whale, according to Lookonchain, has consistently bought Bitcoin on the dip. On March 21, Lookonchain reported that the whale had accumulated 4,451 BTC worth $294.6 million from Binance at an average price of $66,195. Bitcoin has been extremely volatile since reaching an all-time high of $73,797 last week.

Bitcoin has fallen about 13% from its recent all-time high as demand for fledgling spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds cools, with the worst three-day outflow since the products debuted on Jan. 11.

Bitcoin began to recover late Wednesday, boosted by policy decisions made at the most recent U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at further rate cuts this year.

Bitcoin recovered above $68,000 on Thursday, but bulls were unable to extend the rally, with BTC reaching lows of $64,525.

At the time of writing, BTC was extending its declines, down 3.48% in the last 24 hours to $64,796 after hitting intraday lows of $64,529.

Eyes peeled for BTC price recovery

In the days ahead, eyes are peeled for a recovery of the BTC price after testing key support levels. Bitcoin might consolidate and then form a base for a potential upward move. In this scenario, key resistance levels will be closely monitored, with a breakout likely to trigger further buying interest and propel Bitcoin toward higher price targets.

In the event of a rebound, the first indicator of strength would be a move above $65,270. If this occurs, BTC may reach $69,000, the final obstacle before challenging its current all-time high of $73,797.

A rebound from the current level might face selling pressure at $65,270. In the case of further selling, BTC may fall to the 50-day SMA ($57,614), where bulls are expected to buy aggressively.

Raphael Bostic is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, he spoke late on Friday. During Asia time I noted here how late he was speaking and expressed a hope he wouldn’t be saying too much of importance …. well, he sure did!

He is now expecting one 25bp cut in 2024, down from the two he was expecting, and he expects that single cut later in the year. He says he is “definitely less confident” than he was in December that inflation will continue to fall towards the Bank’s 2% target

Bostic’s reasoning:

• economy has proved more resilient than anticipated so much so that he’s doubled his expected GFP growth estimate to 2%
• sees little or no change in the current 3.9% unemployment rate
• says 3.9% unemployment was considered an inflationary level not too long go
• says inflation is falling but more slowly than anticipated, with many items recording outsized price increases

Bostic has concluded that the balance of risks favours waiting longer for cuts.

Bostic says just one rate cut is not a problem, but a good thing:

• “If we have an economy that is growing above potential, and we have an economy where unemployment is at levels that were deemed to be unimaginable without pricing pressures, and if we have an economy where inflation is moderating … those are good things … That gives us space for patience.”