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14 05, 2024

USD/JPY Forecast Today – 14/05: USD Strong (Video & Chart)

By |2024-05-14T15:30:43+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The U.S. dollar has rallied slightly against the Japanese yen during the early hours on Monday, but I think at this point in time, we are trying to stabilize a little bit above the crucial 155 yen level.
  • This is a market that I would have no interest in shorting, and I do think given enough time, we will see buyers step in every time it pulls back.

Keep in mind that recently the Bank of Japan intervened, but quite frankly, there’s not a lot they can do with the setup being what it is. You have major issues with debt in Japan, and of course, with that being the situation, they can’t afford massive interest rates, so therefore, it’s likely that interest rates will continue to stay low because the higher the interest rate payment, the more burdensome this becomes, short-term pullbacks should be a buying opportunity with the 50-day EMA underneath offering support near the 153 yen level, and then perhaps even the 152 yen level comes into the picture as it was previous resistance.

Either way, keep in mind that the market pays you to hang on to the USD/JPY pair and therefore, it makes quite a bit of sense that buyers will continue to see buying opportunities based on the investment attitude of the market. At this point, the 160 yen level above is a massive barrier that’s going to be difficult to get beyond, but if and when we do, that could open up the door to a huge move.

Is the Yen in Serious Long-Term Trouble?

We could be looking at 200 yen being targeted over the next several years, because quite frankly, there’s not a lot the Japanese can do. Having said that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates so, it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. But right now, despite the intervention, there’s only one way to trade the USD/JPY market and that is to get long of the dollar against the yen.

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14 05, 2024

New Attempts to Ascent (chart)

By |2024-05-14T13:29:53+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The euro has now completed four consecutive weekly advances, suggesting ongoing resilience that could continue if mid-week US inflation and retail sales data disappoint.
  • As trading starts this week, EUR/USD is approaching the key psychological level of 1.08 but will require an unequivocally weak set of US numbers to reach it.

Turning to the economic calendar data this week, the market consensus expects an inflation reading of 3.4% year-on-year (0.3% month-on-month) and retail sales (0.4% month-on-month). The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due out on Wednesday, will be the key data release this week. This comes after several strong inflation readings. Also, the signs of an economic slowdown shown by other indicators, so it will be important for investors to assess the likelihood of rate hikes and cuts from the Fed this year.”

Furthermore, the recent strength of the EUR/USD comes on the back of weaker-than-expected US data that suggests US economic exceptionalism may be fading. If inflation and retail sales come in below expectations, the recent US dollar decline could extend as market confidence grows that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates more than twice this year.

As recently reported, Initial unemployment claims – unemployment benefits – rose by 231,000 last week, which is usually an early sign of layoffs. The highest reading in nearly nine months supported the case for lowering interest rates.

The dollar had started 2024 with as much as 150 basis points of cuts priced in by markets, but that had been trimmed to just 25 basis points by mid-April, which had lifted the dollar to its highest levels this year. Recently, another 25-basis point cut has been priced back into expectations, which explains some of the dollar’s recent weakness. It could weaken further if confidence in additional cuts starts to grow. Also watch for comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Tuesday and could inject some near-term market volatility ahead of the mid-week data dump.

On the other hand, according to stock trading platforms, European stock market indexes closed slightly lower on Monday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 60 indexes falling below the flat line as investors await key US inflation data, Q1 GDP and eurozone employment figures due out this week. In trading, construction and materials stocks fell 0.9%, while auto stocks rose 1.4%. also, Orsted shares fell by almost 4% after reports that Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump would hinder offshore wind power development if re-elected. On the other hand, Maersk shares rose by more than 7% despite concerns raised by its CEO about continued trade disruptions next year. Likewise, Siemens Energy shares were flat after the German conglomerate updated its 2024 prospect.

EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

According to the performance on the daily chart below, the EUR/USD exchange rate still lacks strong momentum to confirm an upward shift. Currently, the 200-day moving average is near 1.08, as depicted in the chart below, indicating the technical difficulty of this level. Traders widely reference the 200-day moving average (DMA) in search of market support and resistance signs, and unless there are some weak US prints next Wednesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate may remain confined below the glass ceiling of the 200 DMA.

Presently, the EUR/USD pair is in a triangular formation, with the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages slightly below $1.08, while supported from below by the 21-day simple moving average at the $1.07 level. Further weakness in the dollar is crucial, and the pair will rise above $1.08, given the strong upcoming technical resistance barriers. However, the psychological resistance at 1.1000 will remain crucial to confirm the overall trend reversal.

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14 05, 2024

Pound Sterling needs to confirm 1.2550 as support to attract bulls

By |2024-05-14T11:28:19+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

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  • Pound Sterling struggles to build on Monday’s gains.
  • The Unemployment Rate in the UK edged higher to 4.3% in the three months to March.
  • Focus shifts to US PPI data and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.

GBP/USD is having a difficult time gaining traction after rising nearly 0.3% on a daily basis on Monday. Ahead of the US producer inflation data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, the pair trades in a narrow band at around 1.2550.

The data published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics showed early Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.3% in the three months to March from 4.2%. This reading came in line with analysts’ estimate. Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Earnings Including Bonus, held steady at 5.7% and beat the market expectation of 5.3%. Nevertheless, the mixed data failed to provide a boost to Pound Sterling.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April in the early American session on Tuesday. Investors expect the PPI ex Food & Energy to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis. A monthly increase of more than 0.3% in the core PPI could help the USD stay resilient against its rivals. On the other hand, a reading below the market consensus could weigh on the currency and help GBP/USD push higher. Ahead of Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, however, the market reaction could remain short-lived.

In the second half of the day, Fed Chairman Powell will appear at a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Foreign Bankers’ Association’s Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam. If Powell notes that they will stick to restrictive policy stance for longer than anticipated, investors could refrain from pricing in a rate cut in September and allow the USD to outperform its rivals. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets see a less than 40% chance that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in September.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The 20-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) form a pivot level at 1.2550. GBP/USD could attract bulls once it stabilizes above this level and starts using it as support. In this scenario, 1.2590-1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend, psychological level) and 1.2635 (May 3 high) could be set as next targets.

On the downside, supports are located at 1.2500 (psychological level, 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart), 1.2450 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.2400 (static level, psychological level).

Economic Indicator

Fed’s Chair Powell speech

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.

Read more.

Next release: Tue May 14, 2024 14:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus:

Previous:

Source: Federal Reserve

 

  • Pound Sterling struggles to build on Monday’s gains.
  • The Unemployment Rate in the UK edged higher to 4.3% in the three months to March.
  • Focus shifts to US PPI data and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.

GBP/USD is having a difficult time gaining traction after rising nearly 0.3% on a daily basis on Monday. Ahead of the US producer inflation data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, the pair trades in a narrow band at around 1.2550.

The data published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics showed early Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.3% in the three months to March from 4.2%. This reading came in line with analysts’ estimate. Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Earnings Including Bonus, held steady at 5.7% and beat the market expectation of 5.3%. Nevertheless, the mixed data failed to provide a boost to Pound Sterling.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for April in the early American session on Tuesday. Investors expect the PPI ex Food & Energy to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis. A monthly increase of more than 0.3% in the core PPI could help the USD stay resilient against its rivals. On the other hand, a reading below the market consensus could weigh on the currency and help GBP/USD push higher. Ahead of Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, however, the market reaction could remain short-lived.

In the second half of the day, Fed Chairman Powell will appear at a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Foreign Bankers’ Association’s Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam. If Powell notes that they will stick to restrictive policy stance for longer than anticipated, investors could refrain from pricing in a rate cut in September and allow the USD to outperform its rivals. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets see a less than 40% chance that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in September.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The 20-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) form a pivot level at 1.2550. GBP/USD could attract bulls once it stabilizes above this level and starts using it as support. In this scenario, 1.2590-1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend, psychological level) and 1.2635 (May 3 high) could be set as next targets.

On the downside, supports are located at 1.2500 (psychological level, 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart), 1.2450 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.2400 (static level, psychological level).

Economic Indicator

Fed’s Chair Powell speech

Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.

Read more.

Next release: Tue May 14, 2024 14:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus:

Previous:

Source: Federal Reserve

 

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14 05, 2024

USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Finds Support Against the Japanese Yen

By |2024-05-14T09:27:24+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 27.04.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday, dipping below the 50-Day EMA before finding plenty of support. That being said, the market looks as if it is trying to form some hammer, which is a bullish sign, and, therefore, it’s likely that we will continue to see buyers on dips and upward momentum in the US dollar. That being said, it is moving rather slowly, but that makes a certain amount of sense considering just how many questions there are around the world regarding where we are going next.

If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the Wednesday session, then it’s possible that we could go down to the ¥132.50 level, which is an area where we have seen a lot of support previously. After that, we could look to the ¥130 level, which, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that would probably attract a lot of attention. On the other hand, if we break out to the upside; the market could go looking to the ¥135 level, an area that, of course, is also a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore I think it’s probably going to be an area where we would see a lot of noise.

Ultimately, I do think that it remains that the market will continue to be very choppy, which makes sense considering that a lot of this is based on the bond market, which has been very noisy. The Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control policy, keeping the 10-year JGB to 50 basis points or less. As long as that’s the case, the Japanese yen could get printed in mass amounts, which could flood the market with a lot of Japanese yen, therefore dropping the currency and value. The US dollar also has to look at this through the prism of strengthening due to interest rates, which remain high in the United States. As long as that’s the case, it should continue to push this market higher, and if we can break above the ¥135 level, I suspect there will be even more momentum to the upside in this market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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14 05, 2024

EUR/GBP Forecast Today – 14/05: Volatile on Monday (Chart)

By |2024-05-14T07:26:21+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The euro rallied a bit after initially gapping lower during the volatile open on Monday.
  • We pierced the 200-Day EMA, pierced the 0.86 level, and then attempted to pierce the top of the Friday candlestick. All things being equal, this is a relatively strong sign, for both buyers and sellers.

What I mean by this is that we have seen quite a bit of momentum jump into the market and try to take advantage of “cheap euros”, but at the same time, we have seen a significant pushback by the resistance area that had been so important over the last several months. Nonetheless, this is a market that looks as if it is forming some type of accumulation phase, and therefore it’s worth noting each move. I think if we can break above the 0.8650 level, is likely that this market will continue to go higher. However, this is a situation that is probably going to continue to be very noisy, and that is rather typical for the EUR/GBP pair under the best of circumstances anyways.

At this point in time, I believe that the 50-Day EMA underneath near the 0.8570 level offers plenty of support. We have been gradually grinding higher, so it’ll be interesting to see whether or not that pattern continues. That’s probably the best way to describe this pair, it’s one that grinds a lot, not necessarily trends, unless there is something specific that happens in the market. Currently, this is a market that just looks like it is essentially killing some time, trying to build up the necessary momentum to go higher.

Position sizing matters in this pair, because to begin with, each PIP is worth quite a bit more than most other larger currency pairs. Furthermore, it does tend to be very choppy which makes sense, considering just how intertwined both of these economies are. Yes, I understand Brexit happened, but at this point in time, the 2 economies is still highly interdependent, no matter what the bureaucrats or news tries to tell you. A simple analysis of money flow shows how that’s true. Furthermore, the European Union looks to be exiting a recession, so it does make a certain amount of sense of money flows euro as a result. With this, I am cautiously optimistic, but not aggressively bullish.

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14 05, 2024

Gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY Price Action Analysis And Technical Outlook

By |2024-05-14T05:25:20+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

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14 05, 2024

Extra gains need to clear the 200-day SMA

By |2024-05-14T03:24:19+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

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  • EUR/USD managed to surpass the 1.0800 barrier on Monday.
  • The Greenback started the week on the defensive amidst lower yields.
  • Investors’ focus is on the upcoming US inflation data.

A resurgence of bearish sentiment in the US Dollar (USD) prompted a strong response in EUR/USD, pushing it towards multi-day tops north of 1.0800 the figure at the beginning of the week.

The Dollar’s pullback coincided with a widespread negative session in US yields across various maturities, always against the unchanged macro environment, which continues to see the Federal Reserve (Fed) beginning its easing cycle in September vs. an earlier start of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), probably in June.

In reference to the latter point, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees the probability of lower interest rates in the US in September at nearly 65%.

Still around the Fed, FOMC Governor Phillip Jefferson advocated earlier in the day for the continuation of the current monetary policy stance until there were clear signs that price pressures were moderating towards the Fed’s 2% goal. Speaking about inflation, the release of the Producer Prices Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) later in the week could shed further light on the potential timing of the Fed’s start of its rate-cut programme.

Looking ahead, any temporary weakness in the Dollar is anticipated to be brief due to postponed expectations of a potential Fed interest rate cut later in the year.

Meanwhile, the unchanged monetary policy environment highlights the contrast between the Federal Reserve and other G10 central banks, notably the European Central Bank (ECB).

Regarding the ECB, recent statements from policymakers have suggested an increasing likelihood of the bank starting its easing programme in June, although uncertainties persist regarding the ECB’s future decisions beyond the summer. On this note, de Guindos remarked earlier on Thursday that the ECB is cautious about predicting any trend beyond June.

Looking forward, the relatively subdued economic fundamentals in the Eurozone, coupled with the resilience of the US economy, support expectations for a stronger Dollar in the medium term, especially considering the growing likelihood of the ECB cutting rates well before the Fed.

With this perspective in mind, the potential for further weakness in EUR/USD should be considered in the medium term.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

On the upside, EUR/USD is likely to face first resistance at the May high of 1.0812 (May 3), which comes before the intermediate 100-day SMA of 1.0827 and the April top of 1.0885 (April 9). North of here is the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8), which precedes the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11), all before the psychological 1.1000 yardstick.

Looking south, a break below the May low of 1.0649 (May 1) could put the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16) back on the radar prior to the November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1). Once this zone is breached, spot may test the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023), ahead of the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3) and the round milestone of 1.0400.

The 4-hour chart shows a persistent move higher so far. Against that, there is an immediate upward obstacle at 1.0812, seconded by 1.0885. Meanwhile, initial contention comes at the 200-SMA at 1.0737 followed by 1.0723. The relative strength index (RSI) dropped to around 60.

  • EUR/USD managed to surpass the 1.0800 barrier on Monday.
  • The Greenback started the week on the defensive amidst lower yields.
  • Investors’ focus is on the upcoming US inflation data.

A resurgence of bearish sentiment in the US Dollar (USD) prompted a strong response in EUR/USD, pushing it towards multi-day tops north of 1.0800 the figure at the beginning of the week.

The Dollar’s pullback coincided with a widespread negative session in US yields across various maturities, always against the unchanged macro environment, which continues to see the Federal Reserve (Fed) beginning its easing cycle in September vs. an earlier start of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), probably in June.

In reference to the latter point, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees the probability of lower interest rates in the US in September at nearly 65%.

Still around the Fed, FOMC Governor Phillip Jefferson advocated earlier in the day for the continuation of the current monetary policy stance until there were clear signs that price pressures were moderating towards the Fed’s 2% goal. Speaking about inflation, the release of the Producer Prices Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) later in the week could shed further light on the potential timing of the Fed’s start of its rate-cut programme.

Looking ahead, any temporary weakness in the Dollar is anticipated to be brief due to postponed expectations of a potential Fed interest rate cut later in the year.

Meanwhile, the unchanged monetary policy environment highlights the contrast between the Federal Reserve and other G10 central banks, notably the European Central Bank (ECB).

Regarding the ECB, recent statements from policymakers have suggested an increasing likelihood of the bank starting its easing programme in June, although uncertainties persist regarding the ECB’s future decisions beyond the summer. On this note, de Guindos remarked earlier on Thursday that the ECB is cautious about predicting any trend beyond June.

Looking forward, the relatively subdued economic fundamentals in the Eurozone, coupled with the resilience of the US economy, support expectations for a stronger Dollar in the medium term, especially considering the growing likelihood of the ECB cutting rates well before the Fed.

With this perspective in mind, the potential for further weakness in EUR/USD should be considered in the medium term.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

On the upside, EUR/USD is likely to face first resistance at the May high of 1.0812 (May 3), which comes before the intermediate 100-day SMA of 1.0827 and the April top of 1.0885 (April 9). North of here is the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8), which precedes the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11), all before the psychological 1.1000 yardstick.

Looking south, a break below the May low of 1.0649 (May 1) could put the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16) back on the radar prior to the November 2023 low of 1.0516 (November 1). Once this zone is breached, spot may test the weekly low of 1.0495 (October 13, 2023), ahead of the 2023 bottom of 1.0448 (October 3) and the round milestone of 1.0400.

The 4-hour chart shows a persistent move higher so far. Against that, there is an immediate upward obstacle at 1.0812, seconded by 1.0885. Meanwhile, initial contention comes at the 200-SMA at 1.0737 followed by 1.0723. The relative strength index (RSI) dropped to around 60.

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14 05, 2024

GBP/JPY Forecast – British Pound Continues to Grind Sideways Against Japanese Yen

By |2024-05-14T01:23:18+03:00May 14, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 27.07.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

In the trading session on Wednesday, the British pound pulled back a bit against the Japanese yen, hinting at a consolidation phase. Despite this temporary retreat, market analysis indicates that potential buyers may reenter the market, with a focus on the historical support zone around the ¥180 level. The proximity of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average to this area further strengthens the possibility of a significant bounce.

Compared to other major currencies, the British pound has displayed robustness, thanks to proactive measures taken by the Bank of England to address significant inflation pressures. This resilience stands in contrast to the Bank of Japan’s strategy of quantitative easing, aimed at maintaining low interest rates, which has contributed to the depreciation of the Japanese yen.

If the market were to experience a breakdown below the 50-Day EMA, the British pound could face a decline towards the ¥175 level. Notably, this level has previously acted as a pivotal point for initiating upward momentum and remains a crucial support level to monitor.

On the flip side, a potential market turnaround leading to an upward surge beyond the ¥183 level may pave the way for potential gains towards ¥184 and even ¥185, with the latter serving as the intermediate target. Surpassing this level could result in further appreciation, and some market participants might set their sights on the ¥200 level in the long term, although achieving such a milestone may present challenges.

The struggles faced by the Japanese yen can be attributed to the country’s prolonged experiment with quantitative easing, which has had significant consequences in the Forex markets. As a result, bearish sentiment persists among certain traders towards the Japanese yen.

The recent pullback of the British pound against the Japanese yen has led to a consolidation phase, attracting the attention of potential buyers. The pivotal ¥180 level, reinforced by the proximity of the 50-Day EMA, holds key significance. The strength exhibited by the British pound underscores the Bank of England’s efforts to tackle inflation, while the Japanese yen continues to grapple with the repercussions of long-standing quantitative easing. For what is worth, the Bank of Japan has an interest rate decision on Friday, so this might be what the market is waiting on.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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13 05, 2024

USD/JPY Forecast Today 13/5: One Way Trade (Video+Chart)

By |2024-05-13T23:22:21+03:00May 13, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The US dollar initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Friday, only to turn around and show signs of strength.
  • The shooting star from the Thursday candlestick of course is a very negative turn of events and if we were to break above the top of that shooting star, then it allows the US dollar to go much higher.
  • Ultimately, I assume this is a “one way trade” just waiting to happen, despite the fact that we had been so bullish getting to this level.

At this point in time, the 158 yen level above could be a target, but I think it’s going to take a certain amount of momentum to make that happen. In general, I am a buy on the dip type of trader here, and I think that the 155 yen level is going to be a short-term support level. If we break down below there, then we have a move down to the 50-day EMA possible, or even the 152 yen level which of course is an area that previously had been major resistance. In fact, that’s the top of the previous ascending triangle that we broke out of then plunged towards as the Bank of Japan got into the markets. Yes, the Bank of Japan could intervene, but the reality is there’s only so much they can do at this point in time to change the overall trend.

Interest Rates Continue to Matter

The interest rate differential will continue to favor the greenback, so therefore, USD/JPY is a market that will more likely than not offer the possibility of going to the 160 yen level, given enough time, and eventually higher than that. I just don’t see how the trend changes anytime soon, and at this point, it’s very likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to stay higher for longer as far as interest rates are concerned, and the interest rate differential will continue to get you paid at the end of the day if you are long of this market.

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13 05, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis Today 13/5: Uptrend to Continue (Chart)

By |2024-05-13T21:20:57+03:00May 13, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • With the start of trading in the US inflation week, the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen “USD/JPY” stabilizes around last week’s gains of 155.90 at the time of writing the analysis.
  • Recently, the currency pair returned to the levels of Japanese intervention in the Forex currency markets to prevent further collapse of the currency price, which would harm the Japanese economy.
  • Clearly, the trend may remain upward until this intervention occurs and until markets and investors react to the announcement of US inflation numbers.

According to fundamental analysis and the results of the economic calendar data, The USD/JPY pair is trading in the wake of a relatively busy period in both markets. On Friday, the preliminary US consumer confidence index for May missed the expected reading of 76 with a reading of 67.4, down from 77.2 in the previous update. Moreover, UoM’s preliminary 5-year inflation expectations for this month improved slightly to 3.1%, up from 3%. Prior to that, US initial jobless claims for the week ended May 3 came in below the expected number of claims at 210,000 with a count of 231,000, while continuing claims for the previous week exceeded 1.79 million with 1.785 million.

In Japan, the April Eco Watchers survey beat expectations of 50.4 with a reading of 47.4. On Thursday, April’s seasonally adjusted current account balance exceeded expectations of 3,48.6 billion yen with a balance of 3,398.8 billion yen. Earlier in the same week, Labor cash receipts for March rose 0.6% compared to a growth rate of 1.4% in the previous period, while foreign reserves fell slightly to $1,279 billion from $1,290.6 billion.

On another level, according to the platforms of stock trading companies, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index fell 0.2% to about 38,150 while the broader index lost 0.4% to 2,718 on Monday, reversing the previous session’s gains as investors eye Japan’s first-quarter gross domestic product report this week. Markets have also become cautious ahead of April inflation data in the US this week, which could provide clues about the next step the Federal Reserve may take.

According to trading, Notable losses were seen from heavyweight stocks on the index such as Toyota Motor (-1.3%), Nippon Tel (-1%), Tokyo Electric Power (-3%), Daikin Industries (-0.4%), and Nippon Yusen (-0.9%). Meanwhile, technology, financials, and consumer-related stocks generally advanced, with gains in shares of Disco Corp (2.1%), Mitsubishi UFJ (1.2%), and Shiseido (4.7%). Elsewhere, SoftBank Group’s stock jumped 2.2% ahead of its quarterly earnings report.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

USD/JPY continues to trade at a few levels above the 100-hour moving average line. However, the currency pair appears to be closer to a bullish breakout. Also, the RSI on the 14-hour frame is approaching overbought levels.

In the near term, and according to the performance on the hourly chart, it appears that the USD/JPY currency pair is trading within a sideways channel. However, the RSI on the 14-hour chart appears to be attempting a bullish breakout in overbought conditions. Therefore, the bulls will target potential breakout profits at around 156.93 or higher at the 157.94 resistance. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on pullbacks at around 154.79 or lower at the 153.78 support.

In the long term, and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the USD/JPY currency pair is trading within an upward channel. However, the 14-day RSI has recently pulled back to recover from overbought conditions. Therefore, the bears will target extended pullback profits at around 151.98 or lower at the 147.62 support. On the other hand, the bulls will target long-term profits at around 160.06 or higher at the 163.78 resistance.

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