The conflicts relate to former SEC director William Hinman, a 2018 speech declaring BTC and ETH securities, and payments from a former employer, a promoter of Enterprise Ethereum.

Significantly, Empower Oversight alleges Hinman received millions of dollars from former employer Simpson Thacher while guiding the SEC on crypto regulations.

Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher after leaving the SEC. Hinman speech-related documents from the SEC v Ripple case revealed Hinman continued to meet with Simpson Thacher despite warnings from the SEC Ethics Division.

The OIG investigation is nearing its conclusion. Findings of conflicts of interest and bias against Ripple and XRP could potentially compel the SEC to settle the Ripple case.

Since news of the OIG investigation, Empower Oversight refocused on the SEC. On March 14, Empower Oversight submitted a request to the FOIA for records relating to possible ethical violations.

In addition to documents regarding William Hinman, Empower Oversight asked for documents about former SEC Chair Jay Clayton. Clayton filed charges against Ripple on his final day in office before joining One River Asset Management. One River Asset Management is a crypto hedge fund focused on BTC and ETH.

The investigation comes at a difficult time for the SEC, facing another legal battle with Coinbase.

SEC v Coinbase: The Motion to Dismiss Ruling

In August 2023, Coinbase filed a Motion to Dismiss (MTD) the SEC v Coinbase case. Coinbase argued the SEC lacked the statutory authority to regulate crypto exchanges.

Judge Katherine Failla heard oral arguments in January, and investors await a court ruling. If Judge Failla grants the MTD, the SEC may end regulating US crypto exchanges through enforcement.

The filings made on March 7 could support Coinbase’s position in the SEC v Coinbase case. If BCH, DOGE, and LTC fall under the commodities banner, the SEC may be hard-pressed to argue other cryptos are securities.

The outcome of the SEC v Coinbase case may also influence SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. Amicus Curiae attorney and CryptoLaw US founder John E. Deaton believes the SEC would settle the case against Ripple if the Court grants the Coinbase MTD.

XRP Price Action

XRP has formed a “golden cross” on its price chart, which is widely considered the strongest bullish signal for any kind of asset. It appears when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average, usually 50 and 100, hinting at a price increase. But before XRP holders get their hopes up, it is important to note that the golden cross is not a magic signal guaranteeing immediate growth.

To understand the possibility of a prolonged reversal, let’s take a look at the chart. We see that XRP has established some support at around $0.58, a level where it has bounced back after recent sell-offs. If this support does not get broken during the first test, it can become a foundation for further gains. Keep in mind, the first substantial resistance lies around the $0.65 mark, which XRP would need to break through to confirm a bullish trend. Unfortunately, the possibility of it is slim.

While the golden cross can indicate a trend change, it does not necessarily mean that XRP will rally right here and now. The possibility of a bullish reversal remains modest, considering XRP’s lack of strong performance. It is essential to consider that XRP’s past performance has seen volatility without substantial growth factors driving sustained increases.

For a growth scenario, XRP would need to maintain its footing above the support level and push past resistance at $0.65. If it can close above this level and hold, the next target for bulls will be around the $0.70 to $0.75 range, where past price action has shown significant interaction.

The golden cross may have secured its place on the XRP chart, but its effect on the price is not guaranteed and might only appear after a few weeks. Considering the severe correction the cryptocurrency market has experienced recently, XRP and other assets have not yet recovered fully, which is why caution is advised.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

The US equity markets responded to the FOMC Economic Projections. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Dow rallied by 1.25% and 1.03%, respectively. The S&P 500 advanced by 0.89%.

Moreover, the Asian economic calendar painted a rosier picture of the macroeconomic environment. Australian labor market conditions improved in February. Service sector activity across Australia and Japan accelerated in March. Japanese exports increased more than expected, narrowing the trade deficit to ¥379.4 billion.

US Soft Landing, Japan Inflation, and the RBA in Focus

On Friday, overnight US economic indicators from Thursday and the US equity market session will set the tone for the Asian session.

The S&P Global Services PMI declined from 52.3 to 51.7 in March. Economists forecast a PMI of 52.0. Initial Jobless Claims slipped from 212k to 210k in the week ending March 16. Economists expected an increase to 215k. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell from 5.2 to 3.2. Economists predicted the Index to drop to -2.3.

The economic indicators continued to support expectations of a soft landing as the markets bet on a June Fed rate cut. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates by 75 basis points, signaling a possible end to the battle against inflation. The move supported the appetite for riskier assets.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.20%. The Dow and S&P 500 ended the session up 0.68% and 0.32%, respectively.

Jeff Currie is ex-Goldman Sachs and is now at Carlyle Group, and still liking oil.

Curie says the crude price is set to rise above $90 a barrel if the Federal Reserve cuts rates sometime in the months ahead:

• “I want to be long oil and the rest of the commodity complex in this environment”

Currie also points to China’s efforts to support its manufacturing industries, and Europe rebuilding stockpiles as supportive for commodity prices, especially oil and copper. Says upside is significant.

Further on oil, Currie adds that the uncoordinated and messy nature of the energy transition will lead to heightened price volatility in the longer term.

• “Three years ago, everybody was green, green, green, and this week they’re all questioning it. The reality is somewhere in between.”

Brent daily candles:

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Stuck in Consolidation Range from 1.64 to 1.77

The last five days of trading occurred within a consolidation range defined by the high and low levels seen on March 14 and 15. It shows a range from 1.64 to 1.77. Today would have been a perfect day for more serious selling to occur following Wednesday’s decline and break below the prior day’s low. if it was going to do so eventually, this would be the day. Instead, natural gas fell below yesterday’s low to 1.65, where it found support and rallied. It continues to advance towards the open at the time of this writing.

Today’s Range Provides Near Term Price Levels

Today’s high and low provide price levels to use to identify the next direction for natural gas. If the high of 1.77 is exceeded there is a chance it will continue to strengthen, at least towards the top of the range. The low today is 1.65. If that price level fails to maintain support the chance for a test and possible decline below the recent swing low of 1.64.

Recent Price Action Rallying into Resistance is Bearish Behavior

As discussed previously, natural gas is in a clear downtrend in all time frames. Since it failed to rally above resistance at 2.01 recently, the chance for a bearish continuation remains a real possibility. That price zone previously represented support. So, support becomes resistance, which is a sign that downtrend is showing signs of continuing. Further, the 20-Day MA failed to maintain support on March 12, and it has marked resistance on each of the past five days.

Advance Above 1.77 is Bullish

Sometimes when a pattern is very clear, the opposite of what is expected occurs. That may or may not happen in this case. The market is clearly showing bearish signs but that changes in the short term on a rally above this week’s high of 1.77, assuming that is the high for the week.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.