US building permits increased by 1.9%, with housing starts surging 10.7% in February, signaling robust demand and a resilient US economy.

Hopes of an H1 2024 Fed rate cut impacted 10-year US Treasury yields, which declined by 0.72% to 4.293%. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.39%. The Dow and S&P 500 ended the session up 0.83% and 0.56%, respectively.

While the US equity markets could set the tone for the Wednesday session, the PBoC will be in focus. The PBoC will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates. Economists expect the PBoC to leave the 1-year and 5-year LPRs at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively. An unexpected cut to LPRs could drive buyer demand for riskier assets.

However, Fed jitters may surface before the looming FOMC interest rate decision, projections, and press conference.

On Wednesday, the ASX 200 and Nikkei futures were up 13 and 210 points, respectively. The markets in Japan are closed on Wednesday.

ASX 200

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Australia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong. Comments from the Chinese side:

• The economies of China and Australia are highly complementary and
  have great potential
• Stressed that since
  China-Australia relations are on the right track, we must not
  hesitate, deviate or turn back
• Regarding China’s
  sovereignty, dignity and legitimate concerns, we hope that Australian
  side will continue to abide by commitments it has made, respect and
  properly handle them
• The most important
  thing is to persist in seeking common ground while reserving
  differences
• Every time we meet,
  the mutual trust between two sides increases by one point, and
  China-Australia relations take a step forward
• Hope that the
  momentum of this good interaction will continue

–

Sounds great, if all a little hollow.

AUD benefits when Australian relations with China improve and Australia can export more to its huge neighbour.

Showing Signs of Exhaustion

The most recent upward momentum move started around February 26. It led to an eventual breakout to new record highs. Will demand stay strong enough to keep Bitcoin moving higher once the prior high resistance is breached? That becomes less likely given the pullback that has begun following the new record high. Notice that the relative strength index (RSI) triggered a bearish head and shoulders top last Friday. Today, Bitcoin is on track to close clearly below the 8-Day MA. That line has represented dynamic support for the rising trend since January 29. Today’s bearish price action shows it being clearly broken.

Weekly Bearsh Reversal Triggers

Look at the weekly chart (not shown) and you will notice a long legged doji bearish candlestick pattern. It is following through to the downside this week after a drop below last week’s low of 64,505 triggered. If the retracement continues, and it looks like there is a good chance it will, Bitcoin next heads towards the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement at 60,338, and then the 50% retracement around 56,168.

That 50% price zone has potentially greater significance as the 50-Day MA converges with the retracement level. Further down is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 51,999. Support may be seen around any of these price levels, leading to a bullish reversal. However, given the sharp 92% (starting from January 23 swing low) advance prior to the new record high, the retracement may not resolve to the upside quickly. That rally occurred in only 51 days.

Upside Breakout

Alternatively, a bullish signal would be indicated on a rally above the 68,934 daily swing high. Such a move may lead to a test of the recent high and possibly to an advance above it. If so, it looks like the next new high target would be around 77,660.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Samson Mow, former CSO at Blockstream and now chief executive officer at Jan3, has taken to the X/Twitter social media platform to share his thoughts on the recent address of his former boss, Adam Back, to Roger Ver.

These are two famous figures in the Bitcoin space. Back is a “Satoshi candidate” – a cypherpunk and cryptographer who corresponded with Satoshi Nakamoto before Bitcoin was launched.

Roger Ver used to be an early Bitcoin evangelist called “Bitcoin Jesus,” but he became disappointed in BTC and switched to advocating Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Recently, Ver has coauthored a book that claims that Bitcoin was “hijacked.”

Adam Back urges Ver to return to Bitcoin, Mow objects 

On March 17, Roger Ver announced on X/Twitter that he had coauthored a book on BTC entitled “Hijacking Bitcoin: The Secret History of BTC.” The second author here is Steve Patterson, host of Patterson in Pursuit podcast, who calls himself “a philosopher and author.”

The book explains Ver’s opinion that in the course of its development without Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin became corrupted. In 2017, Ver gave up on Bitcoin and switched to its hard fork Bitcoin Cash, believing that BCH’s larger blocks and its model overall is much closer to the original version of Bitcoin created by Nakamoto in 2009.

In general, originally Bitcoin was meant to be a P2P cash to oppose banks and the fiat money system after the harsh financial crisis of 2008-2009 caused by the U.S. mortgage market. Gradually after 2017, Bitcoin became favored by Wall Street, and this January, the Securities and Exchange Commission finally approved spot-based Bitcoin ETFs. Futures Bitcoin ETFs got the green light from the SEC in October 2021.

Now, Adam Back has urged Roger Ver to “be the prodigal son” and join the Bitcoin party. Back reminded Ver that a lot of upgrades have been made for Bitcoin, including Back’s Bitcoin Liquid Network.

Samson Mow has tweeted that he does not want Ver to come back to Bitcoin, saying that nothing good will come out of this. On Monday, he also commented on Roger Ver’s book’s title, stating: “Dedicated to the babies that died because of Bitcoin Core.”