On Friday, UK retail sales will also draw investor interest. A continued rise in spending could fuel demand-driven inflation and support sentiment toward a BoE hold in 2024. Economists forecast retail sales to decrease by 0.3% in February after surging 3.4% in January.

Beyond the numbers, investors must also monitor Bank of England commentary.

US Economic Calendar:  The Fed and the Services Sector

On Tuesday, the US housing sector will be in the spotlight. Housing sector data are leading indicators of the US economy. A deteriorating housing sector environment could impact consumer confidence and spending. Downward trends in consumer spending could raise the threat of a hard landing. Private consumption contributes over 60% to the US economy.

Economists forecast housing starts to surge 7% in February after sliding 14.8% in January. However, economists expect building permits to fall by 0.2% after a 0.3% decline in January.

On Wednesday, the Fed interest rate decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Fed Press Conference warrant investor attention.

Recent inflation numbers have reduced bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut. The Economic Projections and Fed Press Conference could dictate near-term trends for the US dollar. Economists expect the Fed to leave interest rates at 5.5%.

Philly Fed Manufacturing, private sector PMIs, and weekly jobless claims will garner investor interest on Thursday. Barring a spike in jobless claims, the Services PMI will likely impact the GBP/USD more. The Services sector accounts for over 70% of the US economy and remains the main contributor to inflation.

A pickup in service sector activity could delay the timeline for a Fed rate cut. Beyond the headline PMI, investors must consider the sub-components, including prices, employment, and new orders.

Short-Term Forecast:

The near-term trend for the GBP/USD will hinge on the Fed and BoE policy decisions and forward guidance. However, the Services PMIs and UK retail sales figures will also dictate trends. A resilient UK economy and cracks in the US economy could bring the $1.29 handle into play.

GBP/USD Price Action

Daily Chart

The GBP/USD hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A GBP/USD break above the $1.28013 resistance level would support a move to the $1.30 handle.

The Fed and the BoE warrant consideration alongside economic data from the UK and the US.

Conversely, a break below the 50-day EMA would bring the 200-day into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI at 52.70 indicates a GBP/USD return to the $1.30 handle before entering overbought territory.

Beyond the numbers, investors must track ECB member commentary.

The Pound

On Wednesday, UK inflation numbers for February will influence buyer demand for the Pound. Sticky inflation figures could signal a higher-for-longer Bank of England rate path.

Preliminary private sector PMIs for the UK will kickstart an important Thursday session. The focus will be on the Services PMI, accounting for over 70% of the UK economy.

Beyond the headline PMI, investors must consider employment, new orders, and prices. An upward trend in wages and output prices could influence the BoE rate path.

However, later in the Thursday session, the Bank of England Interest rate decision and MPC Meeting Minutes will have more impact. The markets expect the BoE to leave interest rates at 5.25%. A hold would shift the focus to the vote count and Meeting Minutes.

On Friday, UK retail sales numbers for February will end a busy week. Upward trends in consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation and delay the timeline for a BoE rate cut.

Away from the economic data, Bank of England commentary also needs monitoring.

The Loonie

On Tuesday, inflation numbers from Canada will impact the buyer demand for the Loonie. Softer-than-expected numbers may raise bets on a Bank of Canada interest rate cut.

However, retail sales also warrant consideration on Friday. Weaker-than-forecast numbers could further support bets on a BoC interest rate cut.

Other stats include RMPI and New Housing Price Index numbers. However, these will likely play second fiddle to the inflation and retail sales data.

The Australian Dollar

On Tuesday, the RBA interest rate decision, rate statement, and press conference will influence trends for the  Aussie dollar. In February, the RBA left an interest rate hike on the table. With the markets expecting the RBA to leave the cash rate at 4.35%, the press conference will have more impact. Views on inflation, the economic outlook, and interest rate cuts need consideration.

Employment numbers on Thursday also warrant investor attention. Tighter labor market conditions could support wage growth and fuel consumer spending. Higher consumer spending trends could pressure the RBA to hike rates to dampen demand-driven inflation.

On Friday, the RBA will be in the spotlight again. The RBA Financial Stability Report will draw investor interest.

The Kiwi Dollar

Q4 GDP and consumer sentiment numbers for New Zealand will impact the Kiwi dollar. A pickup in consumer sentiment could fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation.

However, a contraction in the New Zealand economy could force the RBNZ to leave the cash rate steady over the near term.

The Japanese Yen

On Tuesday, the heavily anticipated Bank of Japan monetary policy decision will influence the Japanese Yen. An exit from negative rates would drive buyer demand for the Yen. However, forward guidance on monetary policy would also need consideration.

Trade data and private sector PMIs from Japan will garner investor interest on Thursday ahead of inflation numbers on Friday.

The impact of the numbers on the Yen will likely hinge on the monetary policy decision and forward guidance. While considering a pivot from negative rates, the BoJ remains concerned about the economy. Nonetheless, the services sector is a focal point, with the BoJ wanting services to fuel demand-driven inflation.

Out of China

Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and fixed asset investment numbers will affect market risk sentiment on Monday.

Beijing withheld fiscal stimulus measures to bolster the economy during the National People’s Congress. We expect increasing sensitivity to the numbers from China. A pickup in industrial production and domestic consumer demand could be a boon for riskier assets and commodity currencies.

On Wednesday, the PBoC will be under the spotlight after leaving the one-year MLF rate unchanged. The PBoC will set Loan Prime Rates on Wednesday.

A cut to Loan Prime Rates could boost demand for riskier assets before the Fed interest rate decision.

In a recent development within the cryptocurrency sphere, Panos Mekras, a renowned blockchain advisor specializing in the XRP Ledger (XRPL), has sparked discussions regarding the integration of USDC onto the XRPL. Mekras, known for his insights into blockchain technologies, took to social media to shed light on the absence of USDC on this ledger.

Addressing the issue, Mekras emphasized the significance of USDC and EURC (Euro Coin) integration for the progress of projects like Anodos on the XRPL platform. He disclosed his proactive approach by reaching out directly to Circle, the company behind USDC, to inquire about the delay in issuing a stablecoin on XRP Ledger.

Mekras’s observations underscore a broader concern within the XRP community regarding Ripple’s role in facilitating integrations and developments on the XRPL. While acknowledging Ripple as a pivotal entity in the XRPL ecosystem, Mekras hinted at the need for diversification and independence from Ripple’s influence to foster growth and innovation.

Independence for XRP?

Moreover, Mekras hinted at a potential bottleneck in XRPL’s development, attributing it to the prevalent perception of Ripple as the sole driving force behind the platform. He highlighted the need for greater awareness within the XRP community and beyond, regarding the broader ecosystem and functionalities of XRPL.

Mekras’s insights shed light on the intricacies surrounding XRPL’s evolution and the imperative for collaborative efforts to broaden its utility. As discussions continue to unfold, stakeholders await Ripple’s response and potential interventions to expedite the integration of USDC into XRPL, signaling a pivotal moment for the XRP ecosystem.

With the recent launch of its native decentralized exchanges, Jupiter (JUP) and Raydium, Solana has witnessed a significant boost if DeFi volumes, outpacing the likes of Arbitrum (ARB), Optimisim (OP) and Polygon (MATIC)

Solana Price Prediction: The $200 resistance could cave any moment

After 4-years of trading, SOL, the native cryptocurrency and gas asset of the Solana blockchain, has reached a market cap over $85.5 billion, to become 5th ranked crypto asset globally, ahead of the likes of Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA)

On March 16, SOL price broke out towards $197 as the anniversary celebrations kicked off. But the Bollinger band technical indicator suggests that the price could swing further above $200 in the coming days.

As seen below, after 68% gains in March 2024, Solana price now sits above the upper-limit of the Bollinger band indicators. This rare market alignment is often a signal of overwhelming bullish momentum.

In a significant development for the cryptocurrency industry, Binance has announced the integration of Solana, the fifth largest cryptocurrency by market cap, into its Web3 Wallet. This move marks a major step forward in the platform’s commitment to enhancing the user experience and expanding its services within the Web3 space.

With Solana‘s integration, Binance Web3 Wallet users gain access to a suite of decentralized applications (dApps) based on the Solana network, as well as upcoming airdrops.

Users can also easily trade and manage their Solana assets in the multichain wallet, as well as explore popular Solana dApps in the dApp hub. They can also swap Solana-based tokens and get access to exclusive Solana airdrops.

The integration is expected to increase activity on the Solana network, as Binance’s large user base now has direct access to its features. This could lead to increased adoption of Solana-based dApps, thus driving even more network innovation.

At the start of March, withdrawals on the Solana (SOL) network were intermittently suspended on Binance due to the increased volume of transactions on the network. Binance then identified areas for optimization and proposed a reliable and long-term solution to be implemented.

At the time of writing, SOL has risen 0.28% in the previous 24 hours to $171.30, defying the general market decline that saw Bitcoin plummet from its most recent record high of $73,794 to lows of $65,569 in today’s trading session.

Even though Solana’s price is 33.68% off its all-time high, the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization has lately achieved a record high. The previous market capitalization peak was approximately $77.9 billion in November 2021.

In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a noticeable dip today, with its price falling to $67,549. This represents a 7.25% decrease in the last 24 hours, causing a stir among investors and traders. The sudden price drop comes after a period of notable increases, where Bitcoin notably achieved a new all-time high (ATH), signaling strong bullish momentum in recent weeks.

However, according to renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital, this dip should not be a cause for alarm among the cryptocurrency community. Instead, it is described as a healthy price correction ahead of a significant upcoming event in the Bitcoin ecosystem: the Bitcoin halving in April.

Bitcoin halving dynamics

Rekt Capital’s insights shed light on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market movements, particularly around its halving events. Historically, halvings tend to impact the supply side of Bitcoin by reducing the reward for mining new blocks, thereby diminishing the rate at which new coins are generated.

This event has traditionally led to an increase in Bitcoin’s price due to reduced supply and ongoing demand. In his analysis, Rekt Capital refers to the concept of an “Accelerated Cycle” and explains that while Bitcoin’s price movements may seem rapid or unexpected, they follow a historical pattern that aligns with past halving events.

He indicated that despite the signs of Bitcoin experiencing an accelerated cycle, history is nonetheless repeating itself. Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin had broken out into a “pre-halving rally” exactly as planned. Currently, he added, Bitcoin is moving into its “pre-halving retrace” phase, also right on schedule.

This pattern suggests that the current price dip is a temporary retracement, a natural part of the cycles that Bitcoin has undergone in the years leading up to previous halvings. It is a period of consolidation that could potentially set the stage for the next leg of the bull run, post-halving.

Overall, while today’s price dip may cause temporary concern, the underlying dynamics of Bitcoin’s market suggest that this could be just another step in its larger cyclical journey. As the halving event approaches, all eyes will be on Bitcoin to see if history indeed repeats itself.

XRP, the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has witnessed an astounding 85% surge in trading volume as its price approaches a critical juncture. This decisive level, closely watched by investors and traders alike, could signal a significant shift in the market’s direction for XRP.

When writing, the XRP price was down nearly 11% to $0.612, extending its decline since reaching a yearly high of $0.7449 on Monday. XRP’s price loss mirrors a broader drop in the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin falling from its most recent record high of $73,794 to lows of $65,569 in today’s trading session.

In contrast, XRP trade volume has increased significantly, with an 85% rise attracting the attention of the cryptocurrency community. According to CoinMarketCap data, XRP’s 24-hour trading volume exceeds $4.33 billion.

Similarly, XRP is gaining popularity in Korean markets, ranking as the fourth-most-traded asset on Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, up from eighth place.

The increase in trading volume could indicate increased interest and activity around XRP, implying that investors closely monitor price movements and even position themselves for what comes next.

XRP price nears decisive juncture

Attention is focused on XRP as it stands on the precipice of what could be a defining moment for its price.  

XRP plummeted to a low of $0.5958 in today’s trading sessions; eyes are now on the $0.584 level, which served as the springboard for its run to its 2024 peak of $0.7449. Once the XRP price reaches this level, it may initiate a recovery to its $0.7440 high.

A daily candlestick close below $0.584 may indicate a further decline in XRP. The February low of $0.53 could serve as support in this situation.

On the other hand, if XRP breaks through the $0.74 resistance, it may begin an ascent toward $0.85 and eventually $1.02.

Traders may as well pay attention to XRP’s daily moving averages, which are expected to cross in the days ahead. The emergence of a golden cross may bolster bulls, while a death cross may indicate that XRP is nearing its bottom, potentially triggering a bullish advance.