– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK British Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP Pauses <1.32 as Budget, Fed Risks Loom

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held around 1.3170 on Monday as markets braced for one of the most important data weeks of the quarter, with UK inflation and delayed US jobs figures set to steer rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Consolidating Below 1.32

The Pound to Dollar rate has not been able to make another challenge on 1.32 and is trading close to 1.3170 with markets tense ahead of key data releases and braced for further policy hints from the UK government.

The UK 10-year bond yield edged lower to 4.56% from 4.58% which helped stabilise confidence.

According to UoB; “today, we continue to expect GBP to trade between 1.3120 and 1.3200.”

CIBC expects no GBP/USD change by the end of 2025 with a peak at 1.36 for the second quarter of 2026.

UK fiscal and monetary policy developments will be key elements this week with the latest inflation data on Wednesday.

Consensus forecasts are for the headline rate to retreat to 3.6% from 3.8% with the core rate declining slightly to 3.4% from 3.5%. There has been a jump in expectations surrounding a December Bank of England rate cut and softer than expected data would reinforce this trend.

Evidence of sticky inflation, however, would risk a reassessment of the outlook.

As far as fiscal policy is concerned, there is still a high degree of uncertainty and unease over the budget following Friday’s U-turn on income tax hikes.

Scotiabank noted Friday’s hit to confidence; “While the revisions are welcome from a fiscal standpoint, they are worrisome from a market perspective, offering malleability as markets seek stability.”

As far as the US is concerned, the release of the delayed October jobs data is due on Thursday.

Consensus forecasts are for a small increase in non-farm payrolls for the month, but with a high degree of uncertainty while the BLS has indicated that the household data, including the unemployment rate, will not be released.

Fed minutes from October’s meeting will be released on Wednesday.

There has been a further shift in pricing for the December Federal Reserve policy meeting with traders now pricing in only around a 45% chance of a further cut in interest rates.

ING commented; “Presumably, the Federal Reserve is far happier with that kind of pricing, given the lack of available data currently. This also means that the dollar may not have to rally too far on Wednesday evening’s event risk of the FOMC minutes of that 28-29 October policy meeting.”

CIBC expects a decline in labour supply will lessen the risk of higher unemployment and added; “For this reason, we see Powell pausing at the December FOMC meeting, which may put very near-term upwards pressure on the US dollar.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on November 18, 2025

• USD/JPY continues to climb after breaking above the key 155 level, supported by a wide rate differential.
• Pullbacks remain buying opportunities, with traders eyeing 154 and 153 as support and a potential move toward 159.

The US dollar has rallied during Monday trading to show strength again against the Japanese yen as we have broken above the 155 yen level, an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that clearing is a very strong sign. Short-term pullbacks open up the possibility of buying dips, with the 154 yen level being support right along with the 153 yen level.

This Pair Pays to be Long

Keep in mind that the interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar and the Japanese yen despite the fact that the Japanese yen is seeing rates rise behind it. That actually is a significant problem. And I think money will run from Japan as market participants continue to see just what kind of pickle the Japanese are in. Demographics are coming to roost right along with all of that quantitative easing that had been going on for decades.

With this, I still like the idea of buying the US dollar on short-term pullbacks as it will eventually show up as being bullish, and value hunters, I think, continue to drive this pair much higher. It doesn’t mean that we explode to the upside, but keep in mind that you get paid at the end of every day, and I think traders will just simply hang on to this. I have a target of about 159 yen at the moment, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

I’ve been long of this pair since the middle of summer in various amounts and have no interest whatsoever in shorting right now.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Struggles as BoE Cut Bets Build

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) saw limited movement on Monday as markets continued to reassess expectations for future Federal Reserve monetary policy.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3171, virtually unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened at the start of the week as investors further unwound expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.

The likelihood of a December reduction has fallen sharply to around 45%, from roughly 90% just a month ago.

A cautious global mood also underpinned the Greenback, with weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP readings from Japan and Switzerland heightening concerns about global growth and prompting renewed demand for safe-haven assets such as the Dollar.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, traded broadly sideways as uncertainty surrounding the UK’s autumn budget continued to act as a drag on Sterling sentiment.

Markets remain unsure of the size of the UK’s fiscal gap and which measures Chancellor Rachel Reeves may introduce to plug it.

Reeves had previously signalled that income tax could rise, but reports last week suggesting she had backed away from the idea unsettled investors, pushing gilt yields higher and knocking Sterling.

Compounding budget anxiety are expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut rates next month, keeping a lid on GBP buying interest.

GBP/USD Forecast: ADP Jobs Data Could Pressure the Dollar

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s US ADP employment report will be in sharp focus.

If the figures reveal another slowdown in private-sector hiring, the Dollar may weaken as markets reassess the Fed’s recent hawkish tilt.

For Sterling, attention will shift to comments from BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra, one of the Monetary Policy Committee’s most dovish members.

Any hint of support for further easing could reinforce expectations of a December rate cut and exert renewed pressure on the Pound.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on November 17, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Returning to Neutral.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1560 – 1.1480.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1670 – 1.1740 – 1.1800.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

I still caution against the future rise of the EUR/USD, as the upward rebound gains last week are not yet sufficient to change the overall direction of the Euro/Dollar pair to bullish. Based on the performance on the daily chart, the Euro/Dollar price needs to break the psychological resistance level of 1.1800 for the bulls to gain strong momentum and confirm a change in the overall trend. On the platforms of reputable forex brokers, the gains of the most popular currency pair in the forex market did not exceed the 1.1656 resistance level, the pair’s highest point in two weeks, before closing trading around 1.1620. This occurred amidst the currency markets’ reaction to the official announcement of the end of the longest US government shutdown in the country’s history.

The upward rebound gains for the EUR/USD pair pushed the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) to a reading of 53, relatively far from the neutral line. At the same time, the MACD indicator lines are leaning upward, awaiting stronger impetus. The scenario of a Euro/Dollar decline will gain strength again if the bears return the currency pair to the vicinity of the support levels 1.1550 and 1.1480, respectively. Today, the Euro/Dollar is not anticipating major and influential economic data, only a round of statements from some members of the US Federal Reserve.

Trading Tips:

Carefully and cautiously monitor the influencing factors on the currency market, represented by US economic releases and signals from the US Federal Reserve, to determine the most suitable trading entries for the currency pair.

Why has the US dollar risen recently?

According to Forex currency market trading, the US Dollar price saw a rise in recent weeks as a result of the decline in expectations for a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. While the probability of a cut was almost certain just one month ago, the market now sees the chance of a cut as 50/50. Expectations have since stabilized around this level, and Dollar trading has relinquished some of its recent gains.

Overall, the US Dollar’s rise was temporarily suspended once investors began to see signs of progress toward ending the US government shutdown, which finally ended in the middle of the week. This revives hopes that official US economic data will start to appear soon, providing a stronger basis for Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.

Consequently, investors are likely to wait for the data before pushing the US dollar higher.

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At the same time, Treasury yields slipped, with the 2-year at 3.60% and the 10-year at 4.14%, signaling a more cautious bond market.

Fed Signals Reinforce Reduced Easing Expectations

The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 46% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from 67% a week earlier. This adjustment follows a series of measured comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said policy should continue to “lean against demand growth,” describing current rates as “modestly restrictive.” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem added that rates are now closer to neutral, cautioning that there is limited room to ease without creating broader risks.

These remarks have tempered expectations for rapid policy shifts and kept investors hesitant to price in earlier cuts.

Market Awaits Delayed US Economic Releases

Attention is now turning to upcoming US data releases delayed by the recent government shutdown. The September Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on November 20, but gaps remain for several October indicators.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cautioned that some October data may not be recoverable, leaving markets waiting for clearer signals on the Fed’s next steps.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Long-Term Target 1.22 as Fed Uncertainty Weighs on USD

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) climbed to 1.1620 last week after the US currency softened amid renewed uncertainty over the timing and accuracy of economic data following the end of the government shutdown.

Markets now face a critical “data catch-up” phase that could determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again in December.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Data catch-up

ING forecasts that the Euro to Dollar rate will strengthen gradually to 1.22 by the end of 2026.

EUR/USD secured a net gain to 1.1620 during the week as the dollar lost ground.

The US Congress voted to end the government shutdown this week, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty over the underlying situation.

Berenberg commented; “With the end of the government shutdown, transparency is slowly returning, even though many inflation and labour market figures are still based on estimates.”

It added; “The key question for the markets now is: When will official economic data be published again?”

A key factor will be the impact on Federal Reserve policy. There are clear divisions within the committee and confidence in another Fed cut in December has faded with traders now pricing in close to a 50% chance that there will be no further move.

Scotiabank commented; “We expect that the Federal Reserve will largely look through these price pressures, arguing that they are more likely to be one-off shocks related to tariffs rather than indicative of broader price pressures.

It added; “There is also clearly immense political pressure on the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in pursuing rate cuts.”

The bank expects that the Fed Funds rate will be cut to 3.0% next year.

It also notes a high degree of uncertainty over trade and fiscal policies which will inevitably increase the potential risks to forecasts.

ING also expects rates will be cut to near 3.00% and expects that this will encourage increased hedging ratios with global funds finding is less expensive to take protection against a weaker dollar.

It added; “In addition, there remains sufficient uncertainty around Fed policy to demand a risk premium in the dollar. Changes on the Fed board early next year and potential political pressure on the central bank ahead of the November midterms warn that US dollar real rates drift towards neutral and weigh on the dollar.”

ING noted other potential risks; “Additionally, a resurgence of concerns around US debt sustainability and the build-up of political risk premium ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections are both tangible risks.”

Euro-Zone developments will also be important. According to ING; “It may not feel like it today, but we’re looking for the eurozone economy to accelerate through 2026. The region has the savings to be put to work, and we are looking for German fiscal stimulus to register in 2026.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

Created on November 17, 2025

• The British pound slid sharply on Friday as 1.32 capped gains, with weakening technicals and a looming death cross reinforcing a bearish bias.
• Expectations for a potential BOE rate cut further pressure GBP while short-term rallies continue to attract sellers.

The British pound has fallen quite a bit during the trading session against the US dollar on Friday, as the 1.32 level has offered a bit of a barrier. Ultimately, this is a market that I think you have to look at through the prism of being in a downtrend now that we are below 1.32, which means if we can break above the 1.32 level, then that would actually be a very strong sign.

Potential “Death Cross”

Nonetheless, the 50-day EMA breaking down the way it is and looking to cross below the 200-day EMA suggests that perhaps we might get the so-called death cross. And that, of course, is a very negative turn of events as the death cross will attract a lot of longer-term traders. The US dollar itself has been relatively strong. And I think that probably continues to be the case.

But the British pound is a little bit different situation in the sense that, despite the fact that the Bank of England did not cut rates last time, the reality is that the vote count was very close. So, with this, I think you have a situation where traders are keeping an eye on the idea of lower rates coming out of London. And that will have a major influence on what we see here.

I fade short term rallies that show the first signs of exhaustion. I like the US dollar in general right now, but more importantly, don’t necessarily like the British pound. If we were to break above the 1.32 level and then sustain that for a day or two, then you can make an argument for getting long. But until then, I’m more of a downside player at this point.

Ready to trade our daily GBP/USD Forex forecast? Here’s some of the best forex broker UK reviews to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair repeatedly provided mixed trading on Friday, affected by the stability of the extra barrier at 203.95, besides stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appeared in the above image.

Reminding you that the stability of the trading repeatedly above 201.70 support will keep reinforcing the dominance of the bullish scenario, therefore, we will keep preferring the bullish momentum which allows it to surpass the current barrier and begin forming bullish waves, to target 204.65 level reaching the next target at 205.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 202.80 and 204.65

Trend forecast: Bullish