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It
was an active post-FOMC/Powell session in Asia with plenty of news
and data flow, and plenty of FX movement.
We
kicked off with Q4 GDP from New Zealand, with the second consecutive
quarter of contraction for the economy and thus a ‘technical’
recession. A ‘technical’ recession is a recession, commonly
defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. NZD/USD
dipped a little on the data release but soon bounced back as the US
dollar continued its down draft after the Fed decision. More on the
USD losses to come a little further down in this wrap.
Data
flow from Japan was the next set of notable items. The monthly
Reuters Tankan survey, which serves as a key indicator for the Bank
of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey, due on April 1, showed that
confidence
at big Japanese companies rebounded to a three-month high in March,
and the service-sector mood rose to a seven-month high.
Japanese
February trade data followed soon after; exports
grew for a third consecutive month on the back of shipments of
vehicles. In
less bright news imports missed expectations. More in the bullets
above.
On
the session USD/JPY fell away, below its US-time lows and to under
150.50 before seeing some sideways movement around 150.40. Later in
the session we had verbal intervention comments from Finance Minister Suzuki and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi. More on these in the
bullets above, along with remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda,
who added some detail to the reasoning behind the Bank’s tightening
move earlier in the week.
From
Australia today was another stunning employment report. The
unemployment rate plunged to 3.7% from the previous month’s 4.1%
(admittedly there was a small drop in participation) with 116K jobs
added. The
78,200 rise
in
full-time employment
was the most in 11 months. The Australian dollar and bond yields
jumped. Further
support for AUD came from an ANZ forecast for iron ore to trade
between USD 90-110/ton for the remainder of 2024.
From
China we saw the People’s Bank of China injecting
the least
amount
of funds through reverse repos in open market operations since August
11, 2023. Later
was a press conference including the PBoC and State Planner (the
National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic
of China (NDRC)). Remarks from PBOC and NDRC officials were
supportive and upbeat on the economy, with a PBOC Deputy Governor
saying he expects around 8% nominal economic growth for China in
2024. Maybe he is overstating expectations because 8% nominal would
be a huge win for China. Oil traders might like to pay attention to
this also, it implies a huge demand for oil this year from China.
Indeed, after dribbling lower the oil price found some stability here
during the session.
Gold
rose. Regional equities rose also, following the strong lead from Wall Street.
As
mentioned earlier the US dollar lost further ground during the day,
adding to its US-time fall.
SEC vs. Ripple: Publicly Available Opening Brief Available Mar 26
According to the latest court briefing schedule, the SEC must file its remedy-related opening brief by Mar 22. The SEC will argue for a punitive penalty to deter breaches of Section 5 of the 1933 Securities Act.
In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that Ripple breached Section 5 of the Securities Act for failing to register XRP as a security in sales to institutional investors.
However, the crypto market may have to wait until Mar 26 to access a redacted version of the remedy-related opening brief. On Tuesday, Mar 19, the SEC and Ripple filed a joint sealing proposal. According to the proposal, the SEC must file a public, redacted version of the brief by Mar 26. The SEC and Ripple must meet by Mar 25 to discuss redactions.
Ripple must file its remedy-related opposition brief by Apr 22. If the opposition brief contains confidential or highly confidential information, Ripple will file a public redacted version by Apr 24.
The SEC will file a public redacted version of its reply brief by May 8.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) collapsed to just $61,231 earlier today, according to CoinGecko data. The flagship cryptocurrency is down 17% from its all-time high.
Yet, despite the severe price drop, the Bitcoin market sentiment remains in the greed territory.
More than $505 million worth of long positions have been liquidated over the past 24 hours.
Underwhelming ETF numbers
The most recent drop coincided with Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posting their biggest outflows to date. On Tuesday, a whopping $326.2 million flowed out of these products. Grayscale’s GBTC appears to be the main bearish headwind with a staggering $443 million outflow.
BlackRock’s and Fidelity’s ETF products recorded very modest inflows ($75.2 million and $39.6 million, respectively).
This came after these ETFs kept shattering records earlier this month, pushing the price of Bitcoin to a new all-time high.
The upcoming Fed decision
Some investors might be taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the much-anticipated decision by the Federal Reserve that is going to be unveiled on Wednesday.
The market consensus appears to be that the Fed will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged for now, but concerns remain about its future direction. Stubborn inflation could prompt the central bank to delay rate cuts, which would not bode well for the bulls. Investors might be unwilling to bet on Bitcoin ahead of the decision, which could be the reason behind the underwhelming ETF numbers.
According to Goldman Sachs, the most recent cryptocurrency rally was mainly propped up by retail investors. However, there is also some institutional money coming into the market.
BOJ will support
economy, prices by maintaining accommodative monetary conditions for
time being
We could have waited
until inflation stays at 2% for long time, before exiting massive
stimulus but that could have led to sharp increase in upside risk to
price outlook
USD/JPY has dropped and is dropping a little further on Ueda:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
The Greenback halted its ongoing recovery and retreated markedly after the Fed left its interest rates unchanged and Powell delivered a dovish message, all morphing into extra oxygen for the risk-linked galaxy.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 21:
The USD Index (DXY) plummeted to the low-103.00s after advancing well north of the 104.00 barrier earlier in the session. A busy US calendar on March 21 shows the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims along with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs. In addition, the CB Leading Index is also due followed by Existing Home Sales and the speech by FOMC M. Barr.
EUR/USD managed to advance to multi-day peaks past 1.0900 the figure in response to the Dollar’s pullback. On March 21, flash HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due.
GBP/USD advanced further and traded at shouting distance from the key 1.2800 milestone, underpinned by the weaker Greenback. In the UK, the BoE meets along with the release of preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
USD/JPY rose to levels last seen in mid-November around 151.80 as investors continued to assess the latest BoJ gathering. Data-wise, In Japan, the Reuters Tankan Index and Balance of Trade results are due on March 21.
AUD/USD picked up renewed traction and reversed four consecutive daily declines ahead of key releases on Thursday. In the Australian calendar, the advanced Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs are scheduled for March 21 along with the labour market report and the RBA’s Consumer Inflation Expectations.
WTI prices retreated from recent tops and broke below the $81.00 mark per barrel despite persevering supply concerns and the sell-off in the greenback.
Gold prices rose sharply and revisited the $2,180 region per troy ounce following lower US yields and the collapse in the Dollar. Silver advanced strongly and tested an area last seen in early December around $25.60 per ounce.
Fed Chair Powell reiterated views from recent testimony on Capitol Hill, believing the Fed will start cutting rates this year.
10-year US Treasury yields responded to the projections and press conference, falling by 0.37% to 4.277%. The US equity markets reacted to the forward guidance from the Fed. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied by 1.25%. The Dow and S&P 500 saw gains of 1.03% and 0.89%, respectively.
While the Fed will set the tone for the Thursday session, the Asian economic calendar also needs consideration. Preliminary private sector PMI numbers from the region, trade data from Japan, and employment figures from Australia will draw investor interest.
Upbeat service sector data from Japan and better-than-expected trade data could support demand for the Yen at the expense of Nikkei-listed export stocks. Economists forecast the Jibun Bank Services PMI to increase from 52.9 to 53.4 and exports to increase by 5.3% year-on-year in Feb. In January, Exports increased by 11.9% year-on-year.
Employment data from Australia could influence the RBA rate path and near-term trends for the ASX 200. Economists expect the Australian unemployment rate to fall from 4.1% to 4.0% in February.
On Thursday, the ASX 200 and Nikkei futures were up 49 and 770 points, respectively.
According to Powell, the federal funds rate is likely at its peak, and Fed will start cutting rates sometime this year. As usual, Fed is prepared to keep rates at high levels if appropriate. The Fed will slow the pace of sales from its balance sheet to prepare money markets for the upcoming rate cuts.
Interestingly, Powell talked about two-sided risks of being too hawkish or too dovish. The Fed has a dual mandate of targeting inflation and maintaining maximum employment and wants to strike a balance between these two goals.
Powell that recent inflation data did not show anything dramatic, and that he believed that data showed that inflation was still moving lower. This is an important comment as traders worried that recent inflation data could change Powell’s view on current inflation trends.
When asked about higher federal funds rate projections for 2025 and 2026, Powell said that rates would not get back to the very low levels that were seen before Fed started its rate hike cycle.
U.S. Dollar Index pulled back towards the 103.40 level as Powell noted that inflation was moving lower and signaled that Fed was ready to start cutting rates.
Gold rallied towards the $2180 level, supported by weaker dollar and Powell’s comments. Gold traders bet that the rate cut cycle would start soon, which is bullish for gold and other precious metals that pay no interest.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
XRP has recently experienced a sharp decline, breaking through key price levels that were considered strong support.
When looking at the price charts, we see that XRP struggled to move past the $0.65 mark, which has been a tough barrier for it in the past. The price fell below the $0.57 support line, showing that there is a strong bearish mood on the market.
Currently, $0.55 is seen as an important support level. If this level does not hold, the price could drop further to $0.50, a point where more buyers might step in to stabilize the price.
On the other hand, if the $0.55 level holds firm, there is a chance for the price to start recovering. But for a real upward trend to take shape, XRP needs to move above the $0.57 level and stay there.
The fall in XRP’s price can also be linked to the aggravating correction on the market, which has been somewhat expected.
Golden opportunity for USD
DXY, which measures the dollar’s value against a group of major currencies, has shown a “golden cross” pattern. This happens when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, hinting at a long-term increase in the dollar’s value.
While this may be good news for the dollar, it could be bad for commodities and cryptocurrencies because a stronger dollar often leads to lower prices for these assets in dollar terms.
The DXY’s chart shows the 50-day moving average rising and crossing over the 200-day moving average, suggesting that more people might start investing in dollar-based assets and cash.
The DXY’s important levels to watch include resistance around the 104-point mark and support at the 103-point mark. Breaking past resistance could mean a continued uptrend for the dollar, while dropping below support might indicate the rally is losing steam, which could give other markets some relief.
Ethereum in poor state
Ethereum is nearing an important support level, but there is a major problem: the correction is looking worse than expected as the second-biggest cryptocurrency is nearing a price level that we have not seen for the last two weeks.
Looking at its price chart, Ethereum has dropped from its higher price points and is now focusing on a crucial support area around the $3,000 mark. This price level is important because it has previously served as a key point for buyers and sellers.
Whether Ethereum can stay above this $3,000 support is key. If it does, it might indicate potential for the price to go back up, as buyers could be encouraged by this historically significant level. However, if Ethereum falls below this level, it could quickly drop to the next support area around $2,800, indicating that the upward momentum might be weakening.
The next resistance level to watch is at about $3,500, a point Ethereum has had trouble rising above lately. If it can break through this resistance, it might continue to climb, possibly reaching the $3,700 mark. Yet, any upward move is expected to face challenges at various points along the way.
The market’s current view, based on Ethereum’s price action, is in an extremely poor state. Ethereum’s movement often affects the whole crypto market because of its major role on the altcoin market. Significant price movement by Ethereum could either boost confidence across the crypto space or lower it, impacting other cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects. As for now, most of the DeFi traction has moved to Solana blockchain, where meme coins are seeing far more demand than more substantial assets.
Paystand’s innovations recognized from a pool of 4000 global fintech nominations in the 8th annual awards program as company continues to grow its blockchain-enabled DeFi network
SCOTTS VALLEY, Calif., March 20, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Paystand, the global leader in blockchain-enabled B2B payments, today announced it has won the DeFi Innovation category in the 2024 Fintech Breakthrough Awards. More than 4000 fintech nominations were submitted for this competition.
The 8th Annual Fintech Breakthrough Awards program recognizes the most outstanding technology and companies propelling the speed of use of digital payment models and online product and service channels, shifting how companies operate. Paystand has been honored as one of the ‘breakthrough’ innovators in the fintech market today. Notable companies also named as fintech winners include Coinbase, J.P. Morgan Chase, Mastercard, Citi, Experian, and more.
The award recognizes Paystand for its decentralized finance technology, including:
The Paystand Network, which allows every Paystand customer as well as their payers (more than 800,000), to leverage the blockchain-enabled network for fast, secure and zero-transaction fees money movement. More than $8 billion has been transacted with the help of decentralized finance on Paystand.
Paystand Spend, a toolkit which allows businesses to also spend the money they get within the Paystand Network without having to execute any additional transactions. Money appears in only one business day in their Paystand account when engaging with other Paystand Network subscribers and are eligible for the industry’s first reward program for Bitcoin.
The world’s first Ethereum-based dynamic discounting application. In a world where cash is the lifeblood of businesses and can spell the life or death of a company, sellers can incentivize their buyers to pay early by offering customizable discounts to reduce DSO (days sales outstanding).
“We are incredibly proud to be recognized as the leader in DeFi innovation. With the power of the blockchain, Paystand is empowering businesses to escape financial gravity, thrive without unnecessary fees, and emerge as pioneers in a digitally-transformed financial era,” said Jeremy Almond, CEO, Paystand. “Our journey is intertwined with businesses embracing technology, as we steer them toward efficient financial operations, creating a new norm in the industry.”
The Paystand Network has been especially important during periods of banking uncertainty (the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 is one example). During that crisis, Paystand clients who banked with SVB could hold on to their received payments within the Network until they had a new bank account established to deposit them into. Knowing about the crisis, Paystand also was able to proactively put a stop on funds heading for SVB and let their clients know that their money was safe. In addition, Paystand’s ability to speed up the AR process, so companies could get their money faster, also helped out while bank funds were inaccessible. Paystand estimates that they helped more than 30 clients navigate the crisis during this time.
Paystand customers come from the ‘real economy’ including industries such as manufacturing, logistics, distribution, insurance, renewable energy and more, all continuing to grow. These customers are able to accelerate their time to cash through the blockchain-enabled Paystand Network.
Paystand’s Additional DeFi Initiatives
In February 2024, Paystand announced the launch of Paystand.org, its corporate social responsibility (CSR) arm, which harnesses the power of blockchain and emerging bitcoin circular economies to create financial opportunities within vulnerable and underrepresented communities.
“At Paystand, we believe that the Bitcoin Blockchain has the power to change the world and provide opportunities for economically disadvantaged people,” said Alexandra Navarro, Head of Paystand.org. “Lack of access to banking, burdensome service fees, long payment delays with too many intermediaries, and difficulty obtaining credit and capital are just a few of the challenges that unbanked people face. With the three pillars of financial inclusion, tech adoption, and education for underserved populations, Paystand.org is partnering with organizations who are tackling these problems directly.”
In addition to their work with underserved populations, Paystand’s CEO Jeremy Almond co-hosts The reDeFined Podcast, a show that invites blockchain technology builders, entrepreneurs, and thought leaders from different industries to explain the impact blockchain technology is having behind the scenes.
“What we’re building at Paystand is just a small piece of a wider movement happening globally,” said Almond. “It’s important that we celebrate the quiet work behind the scenes building a decentralized financial system with real economic empowerment. We’re honored to be recognized by the Fintech Breakthrough Awards for Paystand’s tech.”
About Paystand
Paystand is on a mission to create an open commercial finance system, starting with a zero-fee network for B2B payments. Paystand is the largest B2B receivables, payables and payments network running on a commercial blockchain. The company makes it possible to digitize receivables, automate processing, reduce time-to-cash, eliminate transaction fees, and enable new revenue. The AR/AP solutions are designed for both U.S. and LATAM businesses of all sizes. For more information about Paystand, visit us at paystand.com. Follow our blog, and connect with us on Twitter and LinkedIn.
