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Created on November 13, 2025

• The British Pound weakened through Wednesday, pressured by expectations of upcoming Bank of England rate cuts.
• The analyst sees 1.30 as possible support, but a break below 1.32 could send GBP/USD toward 1.2750 amid persistent U.S. dollar strength.

The British Pound has spent the bulk of its trading on Wednesday to the downside. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see downward pressure, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to fall off a cliff. The market could be looking at the 1.30 level underneath as a potential target.

Maybe 1.30 is a Floor

It could, in theory, be a floor, but at this point, I think breaking down below the 1.32 level kicks off a move all the way down to the 1.2750 level. The 1.2750 level is an area where we had seen a lot of momentum to the upside back in April, and now it looks like we are going to do a complete round trip. This is about the US dollar more than the British Pound.

Although we had recently seen a little bit of a rally in the Pound due to the fact that the Bank of England chose not to cut rates, the vote was very close, and it does suggest that we are in fact, going to see British rate cuts rather quickly. With this being the case, the market will continue to see a lot of volatility, but I think you have a scenario where each time it rallies, you have to be looking for selling opportunities.

If the market does in fact rally and give up the gains, the market then fires off another selling signal. As far as buying is concerned, I’d have to see the British Pound break above the 200-day EMA at the very minimum to start thinking about buying. Furthermore, I’d have to see the US dollar struggle against multiple other currencies—it wouldn’t just be here.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 13, 2025

• The US dollar surged against the Japanese yen, breaking above 154.50 and testing 155 as bullish momentum remains strong.
• Supported by the wide interest rate gap, dips are likely to attract buyers, with long-term upside potential toward 159 yen.

The US dollar has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking above the crucial 154.50 yen level and even testing the 155 yen level. That being said, I think we do have further to go, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we pull back slightly, but there are buyers underneath that I think continue to push this pair higher.

Interest Rate Continues to Play a Part

The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar over the Japanese yen, and that won’t change anytime soon. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where traders are looking for some type of reason to get long or perhaps even buy dips in order to hang on to a bigger move.

I do think we’ve got a situation where if we were to break down below the 153 yen level, then maybe we have to step back and let the market do its thing, wait for a bounce, and then get involved.

But right now, I don’t see any reason to short this market. I think you’ve got a scenario where there is just going to be too much bullish pressure at this point to consider trying to go against the overall flow of things. In fact, I think as long as we can stay above the 150 yen level, there’s a real world in which the US dollar is still going to rip to the upside. In fact, my longer-term target is closer to 159 yen, but it doesn’t have to happen overnight. Quite frankly, I don’t think it will. This is going to be more or less a grind, but you get paid at the end of every day to be on the long side of this trade.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 13, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bearish
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1540 – 1.1490 – 1.1400
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1620 – 1.1700 – 1.1780

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1480 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

In the short and medium term, the EUR/USD pair is in a strong downtrend, and the move towards and below the psychological support level of 1.1500 confirms this trend. Recent attempts to rebound upwards have not been enough to stop the losses, and a cautious wait-and-see approach will remain the order of the day until the US government shutdown ends, which is increasing the uncertainty surrounding the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.

Technically, and according to reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing a slight downward trend that may continue until the end of the year, following the strong rally seen in the first half of 2025. A new analysis of the weekly chart shows that the exchange rate reached an overbought condition in the first half of the year, and the subsequent pullback has allowed this trend to reverse, in line with the forex market’s trend towards returning to the average.

The chart shows that the currency pair is now capped by its 9-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently at 1.1615, signaling that this decline will persist longer. This indicator has limited the series of rallies the pair has seen in recent weeks, confirming the weak demand for the Euro. Overall, this reflects the stability of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy, as no further interest rate cuts or hikes are expected in the foreseeable future. According to Forex currency market trading, we observe that the EUR/USD pair tends to reliably move on both sides of the 9-day EMA, meaning the recent breach below this line may lead to further declines in the coming weeks.

The 9-day EMA guided the strong upward trend that began in March, pushing the pair from 1.04 to a peak of 1.1918 in mid-September.

This means a drop to the 1.14 support level is expected by the end of 2025.

Keep in mind that the weekly ranges since last September have been relatively limited: large moves are usually concentrated during specific weeks. Therefore, we are likely going through a consolidation phase similar to the January-August 2024 period when the Euro/Dollar moved sideways around 1.08. If we are in such a phase, periods of weakness should be relatively limited, as should periods of strength. Accordingly, our preferred tactical approach is to trade the EUR/USD pair between 1.14 and 1.17, expecting the price to return to its mean at extreme levels, which could bring the exchange rate back to around 1.16.

A strong upward trend for the EUR/USD will remain contingent on the resistance levels of 1.1800 and 1.2000, respectively.

Trading Advice:

The anticipated strong movement of the EUR/USD pair in either direction will be significant, so carefully monitor the factors influencing currency prices and do not take risks, regardless of the available trading opportunities.

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The GBPJPY pair didn’t record any new positive target since yesterday, affected by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, forming sideways trading to keep its fluctuation near 203.10 level.

Reminding you that the stability above the support level at 201.70 forms a main factor to confirm the bullish scenario, which makes us wait to gather bullish momentum, motivating the pressure on the barrier at 203.95 to find an exit for resuming the bullish attack in the near period and recording extra gains that might begin at 204.65 and 205.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 202.50 and 204.65

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair continued forming strong positive trading, approaching the previously suggested initial main target at 179.70 level, noting that the continuation of providing bullish momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of surpassing the current period trading to 179.70 level, to open the way of recording extra gains, forming extra main target at 180.60 level in the positive trading.

While the price failure to surpass 179.70 level might force it to provide mixed trading, and there is a chance of activating the attempts of gathering gains, forming some corrective trading to target 178.65 level reaching the support near 178.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 178.80 and 180.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• The GBP/USD forecast shows a bearish bias amid weak UK GDP data and increased optimism around the US shutdown resolution.

• The GDP data revealed a 0.1% QoQ rise in Q3 of 2025 instead of the expected 0.2% figure.

• Traders await commentary from MPC Greene and FOMC officials for further impetus. 

The GBP/USD forecast shows a mild bearish momentum as the pair trades lower around 1.3140 following the disappointing UK GDP data. The UK GDP came in at 0.1% QoQ in Q3, confirming slower economic growth, falling from 0.3% in Q2. 

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On a monthly basis, GDP witnessed a 0.1% contraction in September. Meanwhile, the Industrial and Manufacturing Production also missed forecasts, contracting further. This softer-than-expected data bolstered expectations of a December rate cut by the Bank of England. 

Additionally, the earlier UK labor market report came in softer. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.0%, and the wage growth declined as well. These developments weigh on the pound sterling, as traders price in a flexible monetary outlook. 

From the US, the greenback strengthened modestly amid heightened optimism surrounding the US government reopening this week. The House of Representatives voted 222 to 209 to approve the funding package on Wednesday. The shutdown lift is likely to release major economic data that were delayed earlier. 

However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted on Wednesday that the October jobs and inflation data are unlikely to be released. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s opined a hawkish remarks and warned against premature policy easing, boosting the dollar further. 

GBP/USD Daily Key Events

The major events in the day include:

• MPC Member Greene Speaks
• FOMC Member Daly Speaks
• FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
• FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
• FOMC Member Hammack Speaks

On Thursday, traders look ahead to speeches from MPC member Greene’s and FOMC members Daly, Kashkari, Musalem, and Hammack for further cues into monetary policies. 

GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Selling Pressure Persists Under Key MAs

The GBP/USD 4-hour chart reflects a mild rebound in the pair as it trades near 1.3140. However, the momentum remains limited below key resistance levels. The price remains below the key 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs, with continued selling pressure, underscoring the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA, around 1.3147 is an immediate resistance zone. While the 200-MA near 1.3300 acts as a catalyst for a continued downside. 

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The RSI holds near 50, indicating a neutral to weak momentum. A break above 1.3150 could pave the way for the bulls to come into control. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.3100 could extend the losses towards the next support zone. 

Support Levels

Resistance Levels

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EUR/USD consolidates as traders brace for delayed CPI

EURUSD continues to trade inside a tight consolidation range, with the chart showing clear boundaries at 1.16059 resistance and 1.15627 support. This sideways structure reflects hesitation and a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers, especially with the U.S. CPI release being delayed once again.

The delay removes the biggest near-term directional data point for the U.S. dollar. Without it, USD sentiment has softened, and EURUSD has managed to hold onto recent gains despite being capped under resistance. The pair is effectively in “pause mode” — awaiting the next macro catalyst before confirming a directional move.

The broader structure shows that EURUSD has climbed from earlier November lows, but buyers are now waiting for confirmation before attempting to break above the 1.16059 ceiling.

How the CPI delay affects EUR/USD

The U.S. CPI delay is one of the most important factors affecting EURUSD right now:

1. USD weakens on uncertainty

CPI is the single most influential inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. When its release becomes uncertain, traders pull back on USD long exposure. This provides natural support to EURUSD.

2. Market suspended in “Neutral mode”

Instead of reacting to fresh inflation data, the entire FX market is waiting. Without new information, traders are left managing expectations — and uncertainty typically hurts the USD more than the euro.

3. Reduced momentum across majors

Delays prevent clean trending conditions. That’s why EURUSD continues to compress inside your boxed range. Breakouts normally occur after CPI prints, not before it.

Because of all this, EURUSD’s consolidation makes perfect sense: the dollar can’t strengthen decisively, but the euro also needs real catalysts to extend higher.

Separate narrative: The main driver behind Euro strength

While near-term price action is dominated by the CPI delay, the larger driver of Euro resilience comes from deeper macro shifts:

1. Policy divergence is narrowing

The market sees the Federal Reserve closer to easing than the ECB. This reduces the USD’s yield advantage — historically a bullish condition for EURUSD.

2. Stabilization in Eurozone data

Even small improvements in European sentiment, services activity, and industrial demand help the euro stay supported. Stability is now an advantage, not a weakness.

3. Eurozone risk premium has faded

Energy concerns, bond fragility, and geopolitical pricing have eased compared to previous years. With fewer structural risks, EUR becomes a safer alternative when the USD stumbles.

4. USD weakness is doing heavy lifting

A significant portion of EURUSD’s strength comes from the USD losing appeal amidst delayed data, political noise, and inconsistency in U.S. growth signals.

Together, these create a macro environment where the euro does not need to be strong — it just needs to be stable. And that’s enough to support upward bias when the USD is vulnerable.

Technical outlook on EUR/USD

Reference points from your chart:

• Resistance: 1.16059
• Support: 1.15627
• Upside Target: 1.16688 swing high

EURUSD is coiling between support and resistance as liquidity builds on both sides of the range. Price remains above short-term structure, showing that buyers are still active, but without the catalyst needed to punch through resistance.

The next decisive move is likely to happen once the CPI release is rescheduled and traders get the inflation data necessary to recalibrate the USD outlook.

Bullish scenario

A bullish continuation strengthens if price:

• Breaks and holds above 1.16059,
• Shows strong follow-through without immediate rejection,
• Closes above the mid-range on H1/H4 candles.

A breakout may open the path toward the liquidity pocket at 1.16350 and ultimately 1.16688.

Bullish Targets:

Bearish scenario

Sellers regain control if EURUSD:

• Rejects the 1.16059 ceiling,
• Breaks below 1.15627,
• Shows impulsive downside structure as USD strength returns once CPI is rescheduled.

A breakdown could revisit the next support cluster below 1.15400 or even deeper depending on volatility.

Bearish Targets:

Final thoughts

EURUSD is positioned for a significant move — the question is simply timing. With another CPI delay weighing on the dollar, EURUSD has maintained its short-term bullish tone, but a breakout still needs confirmation. The longer the delay drags on, the more hesitation accumulates in price, which is exactly why the pair is stuck between 1.15627 and 1.16059.

What matters now is not prediction, but reaction.

Let the breakout be the confirmation. Let CPI be the catalyst. And let the chart reveal where sentiment truly sits once uncertainty clears.

Until then, this range remains the battlefield. Patience will reward the disciplined trader.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast: EUR/USD Needs “Softer Data” for 1.16+

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) briefly broke above 1.16 before steadying as investors positioned for upcoming US employment figures that could determine whether the Federal Reserve delivers another December rate cut.

Analysts, including ING and MUFG, expect further dollar softness if data confirms a slowing labour market.

EUR/USD Forecasts: 10-Day Highs

UoB commented; “The price movements have resulted in an increase in upward momentum, but it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise. Today, we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, likely between 1.1560 and 1.1610.”

According to ING; “We’re happy that EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.16 than 1.15, but will probably require some softer US data to justify a move well above 1.16 now.”

The bank has a year-end EUR/USD target of 1.18.

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives is due to vote on the resolution which would allow a re-opening of the government.

There are expectations that it will be passed, although the vote is liable to be close.

ING commented; “If approved, that means the US government can reopen, perhaps on Friday, and that the September NFP jobs report (potentially USD negative) can be released early next week.”

Rabobank added; “The Employment Report for September may be one of the first to be published, because it was originally scheduled for October 3, so it was likely almost or completely finished. This will be lagging data, but it could confirm the continued labor market weakness assumed by the FOMC and shown in other labor market data for September.”

On Tuesday, ADP data released data which indicated private-sector job losses of 11,000 per week during October.

MUFG commented; “The drop in the dollar underlined the sensitivity to private sector employment that could shape the NFP data to be released.”

The bank added; “The jobs data will be key to whether the Fed can continue to cut and is an important element of our view that the dollar can weaken notably as we approach the end of the year.”

At this stage, markets are pricing in around a 63% chance of a December rate cut with the dollar responding to any shift in expectations.

Euro-Zone data has not triggered any positive assessment of the economic outlook.

The German ZEW investor confidence index edged lower to 38.5 for November from 39.3 previously, but wider Euro-Zone data posted a net gain.

Danske Bank commented on the German data; “The report thus indicates that the economy is still at a weak footing and the expectation for an improvement is weakening.”

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