Copper price didn’t move anything since yesterday by its fluctuation near the initial support at $5.9700, due to the contradiction of the main indicators, by providing negative momentum by stochastic, which settles below 50 level.
The sideways trading might continue, reminding you that the negative pressure might force it to form some bearish corrective trading, attempting to reach $5.8200, while activating the bullish trend requires a new bullish momentum to push the price to settle above $6.1200, to begin activating new positive stations that might extend in the initial period at 6.2500.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.100
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is holding close to 1.3500, with support intact despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
Markets remain range-bound as investors weigh Middle East developments and central bank signals, with GBP/USD trading in a tight 1.34–1.36 range ahead of key US policy updates.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Holding Near 1.35
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has continued to find some support below 1.3500 and is trading close to this level as markets continue to manage elevated economic and political risks.
There are major uncertainties surrounding the Middle East situation, although the overall market moves have been contained with uncertainty whether the next round of bilateral talks in Pakistan will take place. Markets remain hopeful that some form of dialogue will take place which is particularly important given that the current US-Iran ceasefire ends on Wednesday.
Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC commented; “This binary backdrop of geopolitical risk is keeping a tight grip on forex and as long as talks are happening then the U.S. dollar should be on the backfoot.”
US monetary policy and on-going UK political developments will be market-moving developments.
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UoB expects GBP/USD support will hold; “The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, but the firmer underlying tone suggests GBP is likely to trade in a higher range of 1.3500 and 1.3570.”
Scotiabank added; “We look to potential support in the mid/ lower-1.34s around the clustered 50 and 200 day MA’s and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3480 and 1.3580.”
ING does not expect GBP/USD can sustain any gains and has a 12-month GBP/USD forecast of 1.3300.
Fed Chair nominee Warsh is due to face Senate hearings on Tuesday with comments on interest rates watched closely. At this stage, markets are pricing in around a 30% chance of a rate cut on a 6-month view, but Warsh’s comments could change the expected narrative.
ING commented; “Barring comments on the Fed’s balance sheet that unnerve the long-end of the Treasury and risk assets, Warsh’s comments on the policy rate will probably be a bigger driver of the dollar. With oil prices and short-term inflation expectations high at the moment, comments which see short-dated swap rates and real rates come lower will be dollar negative.”
MUFG however, sees the possibility of dollar support; “US rate market participants are of the view he will leave the door open for rate cuts later this year justified by the potentially disinflationary impact of higher productivity growth. If he sounds more hawkish than expected, it could offer some near-term support for the US dollar.”
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The Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate held just below the 160 level, with the pair trading near multi-year highs as yen weakness persists.
Rabobank notes that the Japanese Yen is the weakest-performing G10 currency both month-to-date and year-to-date, with USD/JPY supported by yield differentials and cautious Bank of Japan policy expectations.
The bank highlights that gains beyond 160 have so far been limited by the risk of intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, while uncertainty over near-term BoJ policy is also capping moves.
Rabobank expects upcoming policy decisions from both the BoJ and Federal Reserve to be key drivers, warning that the absence of a BoJ rate hike could push the pair higher.
“The absence of a rate hike from the BoJ… could propel the currency pair above 160.”
At the same time, the bank notes that expectations for tightening have become less certain, despite earlier hawkish signals from Governor Ueda, with markets now less confident about the timing of the next move.
Rabobank forecasts the Dollar to Yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) will fall to 158 within 3 months and to 152 over a 6-month horizon, assuming a more hawkish stance from the BoJ alongside an easing bias from the Federal Reserve.
The risk of intervention is expected to remain a key factor if USD/JPY moves higher, particularly near the 160 level.
“The chances of a re-test of the USD/JPY160 level will increase.”
With renewed investor risk aversion amid a clear stalemate in ending the Iran conflict—which could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising global crude oil prices, and increased inflationary pressures—the Euro has faced negative headwinds. The EUR/USD pair has returned to selling pressure, stabilizing around the 1.1774 support at the time of writing. This is a slight improvement from the losses seen at the start of the trading week when it plummeted to the 1.1727 support level.
Will the EUR/USD pair fall back to the 1.1600 support level?
According to data from top trading firms, the Euro exchange rate against the Dollar may head toward testing the 1.16 support level again. However, curbing the appetite for buying remains difficult. The Dollar is rising as the new week begins, which could push the Euro back to levels seen on March 3rd near the 1.16 support.
Generally, US Dollar gains are fueled by fears that the imminent ceasefire between the US and Iran may not be renewed this Tuesday, especially following the events of the last 24 hours involving the US seizure of an Iranian vessel.
Consequently, it is too early to confirm a total collapse of the situation. We believe the Euro’s decline against the Dollar will be limited by trader confidence that both the US and Iran are seeking a deal and will eventually reach one. President Trump has a history of announcing agreements at the final moment before a deadline, and there is no reason to believe this won’t happen today.
From a technical perspective, the worst-case scenario for the next 24 hours is the failure to renew the ceasefire and a resumption of hostilities. This would increase demand for the dollar as a safe haven and raise concerns about the outlook for the Eurozone economy.
If this occurs, the EUR/USD exchange rate could fall to the 1.16 support level, which is the 200-day moving average. However, this level remains significantly higher than the crisis lows seen in early March, suggesting that the foreign exchange market anticipates an eventual new ceasefire agreement, followed by the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding steady around 61, indicating continued positive momentum, albeit at a weaker pace. While the MACD remains in positive territory, current signs of slowing suggest a potential continuation of the downward correction before the upward trend resumes. Moving averages continue to indicate greater buying pressure.
A stronger bullish scenario requires a move towards the resistance levels of 1.1850, followed by the psychological resistance level of 1.2000.
Based on fundamental analysis, the EUR/USD pair will react today to the release of the German ZEW Consumer Sentiment Index at 11:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the release of US retail sales figures at 2:30 PM Egypt time. Then, important statements from US President Trump and the Federal Reserve member nominated to succeed Jerome Powell.
Conclusion: The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains tilted toward the positive. However, short-term bullish momentum is losing steam as prices fail to stabilize above the 1.1800 resistance level.
Trading Advice
Dear TradersUp trader, we still prefer selling the Euro against the US Dollar on every strong upward rebound. Avoid excessive risk, monitor the factors influencing the currency pair, and ensure Take-Profit and Stop-Loss orders are active to manage expected price volatility.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has slipped back below 1.3500, after failing to hold gains near 1.36, as renewed Iran tensions triggered a fresh spike in oil prices and hit risk appetite.
With markets swinging between optimism and fear, GBP/USD is set for a highly volatile week, with geopolitical developments, UK data releases, and central bank signals all in focus.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Pound Dips as Fear Spikes Again
Hope and Fear have continued to trade blows in global markets. There was a strong boost to risk appetite on Friday following a statement from Iran that the Strait of Hormuz was open to all traffic.
In response, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate jumped to 2-month highs just below the 1.36 level as oil prices declined sharply.
GBP/USD, however, dipped to lows below 1.3500 on Monday as the Iran situation deteriorated again. In response, there was a fresh jump in crude oil prices and equity markets dipped again.
According to UoB; “The increase in downward momentum is not enough to indicate a continued decline. However, there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3450.”
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Iran developments and UK data releases will be crucial elements this week with UK political developments also watched closely with Prime Minister Starmer under renewed pressure due to the Mandelson affair.
According to Danske Bank; “The market is likely to stay volatile this week as US and Iran will try to negotiate a deal.”
ING added; “In terms of the immediate focus, the question is whether investors will receive further positive news on renewed peace talks in Pakistan, or whether both sides will talk tough and potentially act tougher ahead of tomorrow’s deadline on the two-week ceasefire.”
Danske Bank noted the importance of energy flows; “If oil does not start flowing through the strait soon, oil prices are likely to rise further and above USD100/bbl again, putting upward pressure on yields and downward pressure on EUR/USD.” This would be likely to hurt GBP/USD.
The evidence on US, global and UK economic trends will also be important this week.
There will be a greater focus on potential US interest rate trends with Fed Chair nominee Warsh due to testify in Congress.
ING commented; “He is expected to be dovish on rates, but hawkish on the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.” Calls for lower rates would tend to hamper the dollar.
As far as UK data is concerned, the latest labour-market data will be released on Tuesday with the inflation data on Wednesday. The headline rate is forecast to increase to 3.3% from 3.0% with the core rate holding at 3.2%.
The latest PMI business confidence data is due on Thursday with expectations that there will be a small decline from March figures. A dip into contraction territory would be likely to hurt the Pound.
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Copper price remains affected by the temporary negative pressures that comes from stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forced it to provide extra pressure on the initial support at $5.9700 as appears in the above image.
The continuation of the negative pressures might force it to activate the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting $5.8200 level, to begin forming new bullish waves, while surpassing $5.8200 level and holding below it might motivate more of the bearish attempts, which might extend towards $5.7100.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.050
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate opened the week on the back foot as tensions in the Middle East intensified once again.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3497, down almost 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.
The US dollar (USD) began the week on firm footing, with demand for the safe-haven currency lifted by renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
After signalling the Strait of Hormuz would remain open on Friday, Iran reversed course over the weekend, closing the vital shipping route as US naval forces continued their blockade.
An attempt by an Iranian-flagged vessel to break through the blockade on Monday led to its seizure, further escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Iranian state media has since threatened retaliation and confirmed the country has ‘no plans to participate’ in further negotiations with the US.
This has raised doubts over the current ceasefire, which is set to expire on Wednesday.
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The pound (GBP) came under pressure as escalating tensions triggered another rise in UK government bond yields.
The increase in borrowing costs reignited concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook, particularly regarding how the government might finance additional energy support for households later this year.
Further undermining Sterling was data showing UK consumer confidence has dropped to a 33-month low since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, amid worries over inflation and the jobs market.
Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Labour Data in Focus
The Pound to US dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may remain under pressure ahead of the release of the UK’s latest labour market figures.
In addition to unemployment holding at a five-year high, February’s data is expected to show slower wage growth and a decline in employment levels.
Fresh evidence of a cooling labour market could further dampen Bank of England rate hike expectations and weigh on Sterling in early trade.
Meanwhile, although the US dollar will likely continue to track geopolitical developments, the latest US retail sales figures may provide additional support if they indicate a pickup in consumer spending last month.
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The GBPJPY pair surrendered to stochastic negativity in Friday, forcing it to delay the bullish rally, forming bearish corrective waves, to test the initial support level at 214.19, to settle above it.
The stability above the current support will provide a chance for renewing the bullish attempts by its rally initially towards 215.10, and surpassing it might extend the trading towards 215.70, while the continuation of the negative pressures might force it to provide more corrective trading to reach the main support at 213.30.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.10 and 215.70
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