expects the S&P 500 to end the year modestly higher
is most bullish on quality stocks
broader market index led higher by AI tailwinds and a tech-induced rally
“Markets are likely to be choppy amid shifting expectations for central bank policy easing,”
“But we think lower interest rates, positive economic growth, and growing corporate earnings should create a supportive backdrop for equities in 2024.”
“Quality companies—with strong balance sheets, high profitability, and resilient earnings—should be best positioned to deliver performance, especially if economic growth slows. We see opportunities across regions, including the U.S. IT sector,”
discounted valuations and potential catalysts might keep U.S. small caps looking attractive
also sees opportunities within European small- and mid-cap names
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index is published weekly, comes in at 81.7
prior week 82.2
ANZ comments:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged
last week. Inflation expectations fell (down 0.1% on thee week to 4.8%) to their lowest level since
February 2022
Confidence amongst households paying off a mortgage declined 6.4pts to its lowest level this year, despite expectations the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold today. Confidence amongst renters remains weak, declining 1.8pts.
—
Coming up later from Australia is the March policy meeting, no cash rate change is expected:
“The recent uptick in US inflation—we expect 0.29% mom for February core PCE, up from a 0.13% average in Q4—has prompted us to soften our baseline Fed call to three 25bp cuts this year (vs. four previously) in June”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet this week, the statement is due at 2pm US Eastern time on Wednesday, 20 March 2024:
The US trading day started with all the major currency pairs (with the exception of the USDJPY) having less than 30 pip ranges. The day is ending with the GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD all below 30 pips.
The USDCAD did reach 31 pips.
The USDJPY range was at 42 pips at the start of the US session and stayed the same through the US session.
The EURUSD did extend from 27 pips to 40 pips.
The USDCHF was the biggest mover with a range of 63 pips as it broke to the upside and found momentum buying from traders. Although the SNB and the US Fed is set to meet this week (both expected to keep rates unchanged), there was no real news that kickstarted the rise.
However, yields did rise in the US perhaps in anticipation of a less dovish Fed (?). Technicals did play a role as well as the USDCHF’s rise based near the 200-day MA and later broke above the high from Friday/last week at 0.88524 leading to more technical buying. The run to the upside is testing the high from February at 0.8885 going into the end of day. The March high is not far away at 0.8893 (see chart below).
The run in the CHF (to the downside) was mirrored vs the other major currencies as the CHF is ending the day as the weakest of the major currencies. The CAD and the USD are ending the day as the strongest of the majors.
The new trading day will usher in the first two of what will be 5 central bank decision. Both the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce in the new trading day.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to make a significant shift in its monetary policy, which includes ending yield curve control, stopping the purchase of risk assets, and moving away from negative interest rates. More specifically:
A potential change includes raising the short-term policy rate target from minus 0.1% to between zero and 0.1%, moving away from the negative rate imposed since 2016 to encourage lending.
The BOJ plans to eliminate yield curve control, a policy since September 2016, which involved buying large amounts of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to control short-term and long-term yields. This policy led the BOJ to hold more than half of all outstanding JGBs.
While the BOJ will continue purchasing some JGBs to prevent spikes in bond yields, it will stop its rate suppression activities and remove the 1% cap on the 10-year yield, allowing it to fluctuate with market conditions.
The bank will also end purchases of Japanese stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which started in 2010 and significantly expanded under subsequent BOJ leadership.
Meanwhile, the RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. The market is looking for a cut but not until September (see post here for more details and expectations).
The AUD was mostly, but modestly higher vs most of the major currencies. The JPY is ending little changed/mixed.
In the US stock market today, major indices closed higher:
Dow Industrial Average rose 75.66 points or 0.20% at 38790.44
S&P rose 32.33 points or 0.63% at 5149.43
Nasdaq index rose 130.28 points or 0.82% at 16103.46.
Nvidia shares had a volatile day and closed higher by $6.18 or 0.70% but was up $45.68 points at session highs.
Other mover included:
Apple, up 0.65%
Alphabet +4.6%
CrowdStrike, +1.71%
Meta Platform, +2.66%
Salesforce, +2.10%
Caterpillar +1.42%
Tesla, +6.25%
Palo Alto Network +1.09%
In the US debt market, yields are higher with the 2 and 10 year yields moving higher for the 5th consecutive day:
2 year yield, 4.736%, +1.1 basis points
5-year yield, 4.345%, +2.1 basis points
10-year yield, 4.326%, +2.2 basis points
30 year yield, 4.450%, +2.2 basis points
Crude oil is trading up $1.14 or 1.41% at $82.19. The price is trading at the highest level since November 3rd and is above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September 2023 high at $81.37.
Gold is up $4.24 or 0.20% at $2159.99.
Bitcoin is staying below its falling 100-hour MA currently at $68,064, but needs to get and stay below the 38.2% of the move up from the February 24 low. That retracement level comes in at $64.927 (see video on the technical driving the digital currency by clicking here).
Base’s user metrics soared following the Dencun upgrade, achieving record low transaction costs and an all-time high of 855,000 daily active users.
The upgrade slashed Base transaction fees by 99.9% from the fees on Ethereum.
The upcoming Coinbase smart wallet may further boost Base’s growth by making it easier for users to gain access to decentralised apps and assets.
User metrics on Base, an Ethereum layer 2 network that was incubated by centralised crypto exchange Coinbase, have surged since Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade went live on March 13, lowering transaction fees on layer 2 networks by as much as 98%.
Dencun was a series of nine different Ethereum Improvement Proposals, or EIPs. The most important was EIP-4844, which dramatically cuts the cost of transacting on layer 2 networks.
EIP-4844 introduced “blobs,” which are a unique transaction format that segregates layer 2 network transactions from standard network activity on the Ethereum mainnet, reducing congestion and transaction fees.
Thanks to Dencun, the median transaction cost on Base hit the lowest level of any layer 2 network. The cost to swap on popular decentralised exchange Uniswap now costs only $0.0018, and the cost to transfer Ether between wallets is only $0.004.
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Median gas price to perform different transaction types on top layer 2 blockchains (GasFees.io)
A swap on Base is now 99.9% cheaper than it is on Ethereum, and it’s 98% cheaper than it is on Arbitrum, the largest layer 2 network by total value locked,
User metrics on Base surged following the upgrade, most notably, on March 16, when the number of daily active users hit an all-time high of more than 855,000.
Daily active users on Base (Dune: Watermeloncrypto)
The number of transactions in a single day hit an all-time high of more than 2.1 million on March 16, and as of today, there is $709 million of crypto assets deposited on the blockchain, another all-time high.
This makes Base the 11th-largest blockchain in terms of total value of crypto assets deposited and the fourth-largest Ethereum rollup.
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Aerodrome, a decentralised exchange, is the top protocol on Base by total value of crypto assets deposited, with over $310 million deposited and $482 million in weekly volume, both all-time highs. The native token, AERO, is up 19% in the last seven days.
Coinbase’s new wallet
Still, some users think that Base has even more room to grow because of the release of the Coinbase smart wallet.
Jesse Pollack, founder of Base, introduced the wallet to social media on March 1, saying it is the last piece to bringing billions of people onchain.
The wallet is still in a testing phase, but once it is live, it will enable traders on Coinbase to use their Coinbase balance to trade onchain.
That would significantly enhance the user experience for Coinbase users, because they would be able to access decentralised apps, tokens, and NFTs that aren’t available on the centralised exchange without having to use different wallet apps.
For protocols, once the wallet is released, it potentially opens the door to an influx of new users who may have not conducted transactions onchain before.
Given the close ties between Base and Coinbase, some believe Base will be the biggest beneficiary of this new change.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Cardano, a Layer-1 smart contract network that aims to provide security, scalability and sustainability to decentralized applications, has achieved a historic milestone with the launch of Mehen’s USDM, a fiat-backed stablecoin.
The Mehen token (USDM) is a digital store of value token issued by Mehen Finance that is 1:1 convertible to U.S. dollars. USDM, as a Cardano-native token, can be transferred on the Cardano blockchain without the need for additional smart contracts.
In a tweet announcing the arrival of the USDM stablecoin on Cardano, Mehen stated that institutional customers will immediately begin the onboarding process, which might take one-two days. This means USDM will gradually arrive on-chain during the week of March 18.
As Cardano expands its ecosystem and attracts more users and developers, the launch of USDM is a watershed moment in the platform’s march to widespread use.
The USDM token, remarkably, is the first of its kind on Cardano. Unlike the iUSD and DJED, Mehen’s USDM is not algorithmic or synthetic but fully backed by U.S. dollars at 1:1. Users will put dollars (USD) into their Mehen account, which Mehen will store in a separate account for token holders. Once the transactions are completed, the user may mint the equivalent number of USDM cryptocurrency tokens.
The last quarter saw remarkable ecosystem expansion, with Cardano’s stablecoin value jumping 37% QoQ and 673% YoY. With the debut of Mehen’s USDM stablecoin, there are high prospects for growth in the Cardano stablecoin market.
ADA price action
At the time of writing, ADA was down 9.54% in the last 24 hours to $0.66, mirroring the broader market declines.
According to crypto analyst Ali, Cardano’s price action so far resembles the pattern observed from 2018 to 2021. Ali said that if this fractal persists, ADA may consolidate in the $0.55 to $0.80 range in the following weeks, followed by a rise to $1.70. Following this increase, a period of consolidation may be expected, paving the way for a breakthrough to $5.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its March FOMC meeting, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the committee is likely to maintain its cautious stance, with expectations for a rate cut postponed to June. This projection comes despite numerous changes since the last meeting, none of which seem to hasten the Fed’s decision-making. The outlook for a gradual easing cycle is reinforced by recent developments aligning more closely with the Fed’s December projections on disinflation progress. Given that other central banks are also adopting a cautious approach, significant currency movements are anticipated to be limited. The focus remains on carry and cyclical factors, leaving the Dollar in a unique position outside these primary influences.
Key Points:
Postponed Rate Cuts: Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in June, with a slower cycle likely due to recent economic data and inflation trends aligning with the FOMC’s less optimistic projections.
Global Central Bank Caution: The cautious stance is not unique to the Fed; other central banks globally are also taking a deliberate approach to policy adjustments, impacting currency volatility.
Dollar’s Unique Position: Given the current global economic landscape, the USD does not fit neatly into either carry or cyclical categories, suggesting that its movements will be influenced by a broader range of factors beyond immediate central bank policies.
Conclusion:
The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to reflect a continued cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, aligning with global central bank trends. This outlook suggests that significant USD movements might be more influenced by carry and cyclical factors rather than direct policy changes in the near term. Goldman Sachs’ analysis indicates that while rate cuts are on the horizon, the path to easing will be gradual, mirroring the careful strategies of central banks worldwid
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In an exciting development for tennis enthusiasts and financial market participants, the foreign exchange and contracts for difference (CFD) trading firm Pepperstone has unveiled a collaboration with the legendary tennis figure John McEnroe. The former top-ranked player and winner of seven Grand Slam singles titles will serve as the company’s Global Tennis Ambassador.
Australian tennis talent Alex de Minaur, who has already represented Pepperstone, is joining forces with McEnroe. McEnroe expressed his enthusiasm about the partnership, noting Pepperstone’s known dedication to tennis and sharing a mutual zeal for the sport’s advancement.
McEnroe’s induction as an ambassador underscores Pepperstone’s dedication to fostering tennis globally. The brokerage has made its mark in tennis as a Platinum Partner of the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) and as the sponsor of the Pepperstone ATP Rankings.
Pepperstone’s CEO, Tamas Szabo, highlighted McEnroe’s storied career and broader impact on tennis, expressing excitement about collaborating with him in this ambassadorial role.
While many brokers typically gravitate towards football and motorsports for promotional activities, Pepperstone’s engagement with tennis signifies its strategic utilisation of widespread appeal.
Demonstrating its broad support for sports, Pepperstone has diversified its sponsorship portfolio to include engagements beyond tennis. In early 2024, the company announced its partnership with the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), becoming the Official Regional Partner for the eagerly awaited AFC Asian Cup Qatar 2023.
Last year, Pepperstone also extended its support to Australian rules football by partnering with the Geelong Cats, one of the premier teams in Australia’s leading football league. This sponsorship, orchestrated by the Melbourne-based agency Bastion, positioned Pepperstone as the team’s Official Online Trading Partner.
Moreover, in 2022, Pepperstone ventured into cricket by partnering with the Adelaide Strikers, a prominent team in Australia’s Big Bash League (BBL|12). As a Principal Partner for the team, Pepperstone affirmed its commitment to backing Australian sports and athletes, highlighting its multifaceted approach to sports sponsorship.
Shares of NVDA rose as high as $924 at the open today on enthusiasm for an Nvidia keynote from CEO Jensen Huang at its conference today. However those gains didn’t last and shares are now trading flat on the day.
NVDA daily
The price action shows that it will be tough for AI to fuel gains from here. Shares of Supermicro are also taking a beating today, down 8.7% after opening strongly higher.
Some of this could reflect concern about the Fed but I’d wager that it’s largely profit taking in the hottest names in the market. We’re nearing the point where AI will have to deliver real-world results to continue to justify the capex. I think we will get there but timelines are tough to predict.
Ether.fi, the best-capitalized liquid restaking project, began distributing 60 million of its native ETHFI token Monday morning, worth roughly $210 million at press time.
It’s the first domino to fall following weeks of traders and even DeFi hedge funds rushing to accumulate restaking points, which speculators hope will lead to airdrops in the restaking sector. ETHFI fell more than 25% following the launch as points farmers took profits on the tokens. It was trading for around $3.50 midday Monday, according to CoinGecko.
Roughly 22 million of the 60 million ETHFI tokens made available were claimed Monday morning, according to a Dune Analytics dashboard. The airdrop, and the ether.fi protocol in general, is not available to US residents.
Points have lately become a popular user acquisition method in crypto. When users do things like move assets around on a DeFi protocol, that protocol will dole out points which are — sometimes explicitly and other times with a wink — understood to determine allocations in a future token airdrop.
Speculators have created a cottage industry for collecting points in the restaking sector in particular. Users are trading points for the restaking giant EigenLayer on Whales Market and leveraging up their points exposure with so-called yield tokens on DeFi app Pendle. Some asset managers in the DeFi space have begun accumulating tokens on behalf of investors.
Partly as a result of points farming, assets held on restaking protocols have skyrocketed across the board in recent weeks. EigenLayer has taken on more than $9 billion in total value locked (TVL) in the past month and a half, according to DeFiLlama. During the same time frame, ether.fi’s TVL more than quadrupled to a little under $3 billion — more than DeFi mainstays like Compound and Curve.
ETHFI is a governance token that lets holders vote on things like how value accrual on the token should work and ether.fi’s grants program, ether.fi said in a blog post. 11% of the token’s supply will be distributed via airdrop, with roughly 23% set aside for core contributors, 27% for the project’s treasury and 32.5% for investors.
It’s the latest attempt at turning hype into something tangible from a protocol in the restaking sector as EigenLayer — the protocol Ethereum restaking protocols are built on — is yet to go to mainnet. Last week, LRT project Swell said it would be launching a so-called restaked rollup, or a layer-2 built as an actively validated service (AVS) on EigenLayer.
Ether.fi has talked about building a layer-2 in the future. But for now, the project’s leadership is mostly focused on scaling its new investing product, called Liquid, and growing the LRT project’s TVL, founder and CEO Mike Silagadze told Blockworks.
“Honestly I’m just glad it’s done with, [so] we can mostly focus on getting back to work,” Silagadze said of the airdrop process in a text.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/dlnews/NQPL73BKAJBK7PV37ABY4TSPMY.png "This layer 2 is the biggest winner from Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade so far – DL News")
