The EURUSD trades up to the 38.2% of the move down from the December high, and finds sellers. That level comes in at 1.0864. The high reached 1.0866 and backed off.

The buyers made a play in the pair, but can they get the price above 38.2% and stay above to show they want to take more control from the sellers? If they can’t, we could see the buyers turn to sellers and the price rotate back down to the 200-day MA at 1.08266.

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Carina Akerstrom has stepped down from her role as chairperson of Alecta, the largest pension fund in Sweden, merely a week after her appointment, the organisation announced on Sunday. In light of her departure, Alecta has reinstated Jan-Olof Jacke as the interim chair, a position he has held since November 2023 following the resignation of the former chair.

Kenneth Bengtsson, the chair of the nomination committee, expressed regret over Akerstrom’s decision to leave, noting her reassessment of her capability to serve effectively as Alecta’s Board Chair. While the specific reasons for Akerstrom’s resignation were not disclosed by Alecta, the pension fund clarified that there were no unmanageable conflicts of interest involved.

Akerstrom herself did not respond to inquiries for comments on her resignation.

This incident marks the second time a candidate selected for the chairperson position by the nomination committee has been unable to assume the role. Initially, the committee had to retract its recommendation of Lars Rohde, the former head of the Danish central bank, due to concerns over potential conflicts of interest linked to his acceptance of a board position at another company. Following this, Akerstrom was nominated as his replacement.

Before her brief tenure with Alecta, Akerstrom served as the CEO of Svenska Handelsbanken, a role from which she stepped down the previous year.

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In addition to the leadership changes, Alecta has been under close watch by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA). The pension fund is currently the subject of two ongoing investigations by the FSA concerning its approach to risk-taking.

Alecta has faced criticism for its investment strategy, particularly its substantial investment in Heimstaden Bostad, a real estate company burdened with heavy debt. Furthermore, the pension fund’s investments in several U.S. banks, including First Republic, Silicon Valley, and Signature, which have since failed, have also drawn scrutiny.

These investments raise questions about the pension fund’s risk management practices and decision-making processes, highlighting the challenges facing Alecta in the current financial landscape. Alecta’s leadership transitions and the scrutiny it faces from regulatory authorities underscore the complex environment in which pension funds operate.

The Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Monday questioned real estate tycoon and businessman Niranjan Hiranandani in connection with a foreign exchange violation case.

Niranjan Hiranandani, the promoter of prominent Mumbai-based realty company Hiranandani Group, and his son Darshan Hiranandani, were summoned by the probe agency to appear before it for questioning as part of a probe being conducted under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA).

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Last month, Enforcement Directorate officials conducted a search operation at various premises associated with Niranjan Hiranandani and Darshan Hiranandani in Mumbai and several other locations.

Darshan Hiranandani has been living in Dubai for the past several years.

Niranjan Hiranandani and his family members were identified as beneficiaries of an offshore trust, accumulating assets exceeding $60 million. The group’s connection with the Pandora Papers was also disclosed during the investigation.

Between 2006 and 2008, the Hiranandanis established at least 25 companies and a trust in the British Virgin Islands. Investigations revealed that they routed investments totalling over Rs. 400 crores in the form of Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) into group companies involved in real estate projects in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.

The probe agency has alleged that the utilisation of these funds did not align with the prescribed government guidelines.

One of the group entities, which received FDI, failed to repay loans acquired from a consortium of banks, resulting in its declaration as a Non-Performing Asset (NPA).

Interestingly, the incomplete project was subsequently taken over by another Hiranandani group entity through Debt Recovery Tribunal (DRT) proceedings.

Notably, sources have told news agency PTI that the recent questioning by the Enforcement Directorate was not linked to another FEMA probe being conducted against Trinamool Congress leader Mahua Moitra, who was expelled as a Lok Sabha MP in December last year.

BJP MP Nishikant Dubey had leveled allegations against Moitra, claiming that her inquiries in the Lok Sabha were orchestrated by Darshan Hiranandani to target the Adani Group and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in return for gifts.

The Trinamool leader, however, refuted the allegations and denied any wrongdoing, claiming that she was being targeted for raising questions about the deals of the Adani Group.

The 2050 level underneath, I think, continues to be a hard floor. Really at this point in time, I do not know that we will visit the $2,000 again, due to the fact that it has seen such a huge shot higher. If we can break the highs of the session on Friday, at essentially 2088, then the market is probably ready to rip higher in general. That doesn’t mean it will be easy or in a straight line, but it will continue to go higher.

In the meantime, though, I like the idea of looking for short-term pullbacks to take advantage of and get value. There is no scenario right now that I can foresee at least that I would be a seller of this market. It remains strong. And quite frankly, I think you also have to keep in mind that central banks around the world, not only loosening monetary policy, but also being net buyers of gold, has a major influence on this market as well buying the dips every chance I get.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

On a monetary policy level, we note that BoI despite cutting rates by 25 basis points in November, it tends to maintain a relatively high interest rate at the level of 4.50%. In its latest interest rate decision, the bank highlights understandably, the wide uncertainty surrounding the Israeli economy, and notes that “The interest rate path will be determined in accordance with the continued convergence of inflation to its target, continued stability in the financial markets, economic activity, and fiscal policy”.

Yet we tend to expect an easing of the relatively tight monetary policy, given that inflation has returned within the bank’s target range and seems to have a tendency to ease further. At the same time, the wide contraction of the GDP rate in Q4 2023 is adding pressure on the bank to start cutting rates earlier and at a faster pace, in order to rejuvenate the ailing economy.

It should be noted though, that the bank seems to have successfully defended the Shekel (ILS), as despite a considerable weakening of the Israeli currency until the end of 2023, the ILS’s drop was not allowed to come to extreme levels. On the contrary, it was controlled and moderated. Overall though, we expect that a possible easing of the bank’s monetary policy could have an adverse effect on the ILS, as could a prolonged war. Yet, once again the bank seems to have enough FX reserves to defend its currency, as seen in the past few months and its characteristic that the FX reserves have risen in January, which are at relatively high levels.

The Outlook

So what’s the way forward? The downgrading of Israel’s bonds by Moody’s was characteristic of the predisposition of the markets for the outlook of the Israeli economy. The downgrade (from A1 to A2) was practically a double whammy, as despite Israeli bonds still being at an investing grade, the credit rating agency added a negative outlook, which practically opens the door for another downgrading.

More credit rating agencies are expected to follow and despite the rise of interest rates being tolerable for any additional loans Israel may undertake, the drag on the economy will widen. As long as the war is ongoing, uncertainty is bound to remain high and the probability of an adverse effect on the economy rises considerably. We are citing three specific issues that the Israeli economy may have to face in such a scenario.

The first would be that Israel’s attractiveness, as an investing destination, could be tarnished substantially, which in turn may weigh on the current account balance. To this issue we have to note that Intel’s $25 billion chip factory plans seem to go ahead albeit a relative hesitancy on behalf of the chipmaker and a stalling. Yet the plans got a green light temporarily, only after the Israeli government contributed $3.2 billion.

Second, the Israeli Government will have to keep its military reserves deployed, which would mean that a part of its workforce will not be able to contribute to the country’s economy at least not from their workstations. In addition to that the government will have to pay all these reserves increasing its expenditure. Last but not least, we would note that the direction of fiscal spending will be bound towards the war effort primarily, which could prove costly and may force the Netanyahu government to borrow more and more funds, a scenario that is expected to have a longer-term adverse effect on future fiscal policy, as the loans will have to be repaid at some point.

All of that is under the idea that there will be, no second front, say for example near the border with Lebanon, while all other factors are to remain unchanged, say continuous support from the US primarily and any other allies. Yet with Trump’s possible re-election, the US support seems to be hanging in limbo, given the former US President’s unpredictability.

Also, should Israel win the war, or should there be some sort of settlement either in the form of a permanent ceasefire or a political solution, a scenario that does not seem to be on the horizon currently, we also expect that a more moderate government will be required for Israel in order to reunite the Israeli nation and regain Israel’s credibility in the international political stage.

Disclaimer: This information is for educational purpose only and should not be considered as an investment advice or investment recommendation.

Recently, attention of one of the most experienced traders in the industry, Peter Brandt, has turned toward Bitcoin, the pioneer digital asset, as it exhibits compelling price movements that could indicate a significant buying opportunity.

Analyzing the price action of Bitcoin, we have observed a substantial 233% increase in its value on a daily closing price basis since Sept. 11. Notably, the most considerable closing price retracement experienced by Bitcoin was a modest 15.7% from Jan. 8 to Jan. 22. Such resilience in price is indicative of strong market sentiment and underlines the asset’s robust nature amid the volatile crypto environment.

At present, Bitcoin’s price trajectory appears to be on a bullish climb, adhering to an ascending trend channel that has been in play for several months. The latest price pattern suggests that Bitcoin is trading with a strong upside momentum, a testament to the confidence of market participants in the asset’s long-term value proposition.

Support and resistance levels are critical in gauging potential turning points in price action. The current support level for Bitcoin seems to be established around the $55,000 mark. A dip below this threshold could represent a pivotal buying opportunity for investors seeking to enter the market or accumulate additional positions. Although such a dip is not explicitly predicted, the established support level provides a strategic point for investors to monitor closely.

The forecast for Bitcoin in the foreseeable future remains cautiously optimistic. If the digital currency continues to respect the established support level, we may witness a continued upward trajectory, potentially reaching new highs. On the other hand, a break below the support could signal a bearish scenario, where investors might expect a deeper pullback before any significant recovery takes place.

If Bitcoin sustains its momentum and the market appetite persists, the potential for surpassing previous all-time highs remains within the realm of possibility. Traders might look for consolidation patterns and continuation signals as confirmation of sustained bullish momentum.