Treasurys and Economic Data

U.S. Treasury yields have increased slightly, with attention turning to the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, a key indicator of wholesale inflation. Expectations are for a 0.3% monthly increase, while core-PPI, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to rise by 0.2%. This data release is crucial before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 19-20, where interest rates are expected to remain stable. However, indications of future rate cuts are eagerly awaited. Earlier, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February exceeded expectations, increasing concerns about persistent inflation.

US Dollar Inches Higher

The U.S. dollar is strengthening against other major currencies, with traders evaluating recent CPI data and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy. The probability of a June rate cut is currently seen at 67%, slightly down from earlier estimates. Upcoming U.S. economic data, including retail sales and jobless claims, will be closely monitored for further insights into the economy’s trend and the Fed’s potential actions.

Gold Market Outlook

The stronger dollar and higher bond yields have reduced gold’s attractiveness, as it becomes pricier for holders of other currencies and offers no yield. Upcoming U.S. economic reports will be crucial in shaping market expectations regarding the Fed’s rate decisions. Although the recent CPI data caused a minor dip in gold prices, the outlook remains broadly supportive. Traders currently assign a 67% chance to a June rate cut. The Fed’s upcoming ‘dot plot’ projections and developments in China’s economy and consumer demand will also be key factors influencing gold prices.

Short-Term Market Forecast

Considering the current economic indicators and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, the short-term outlook for gold appears cautiously bullish although the market is vulnerable to a near-term correction. The precious metal’s price might find support if the upcoming PPI data aligns with expectations, indicating sustained interest in gold amid economic uncertainties.

Technical Analysis

In a series of recent market analyses, cryptocurrency specialists have spotlighted Bitcoin’s burgeoning on-chain metrics and its potential readiness for another massive bull run. Notable voices in the crypto analysis world, including on-chain analyst Axel and CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, have contributed to a growing sentiment that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of its next major price surge.

Axel, renowned for his insightful interpretations of Bitcoin’s on-chain data, highlighted the significance of the UTXO Profit/Loss (P/L) Supply Ratio Momentum, a sophisticated metric assessing short-term versus long-term profitability based on Bitcoin transactions. According to Axel, this metric is calculated by dividing the average weekly profit/loss ratio by the yearly average.

He noted that over the past decade, there have been two significant spikes in this momentum, and he observed that a third one appears to be emerging currently. These spikes, Axel explained, correlate closely with periods of market growth, suggesting potential mid-bull rally phases that could yield substantial profits for investors.

Next Bitcoin bull run coming?

In response to Axel’s analysis, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, provided his perspective, reinforcing the bullish outlook. He stated that the on-chain momentum of BTC indicates that there is enough fresh capital inflow to start the next Bitcoin parabolic bull run. This comment underscores the belief that there is sufficient new investment entering the market to propel Bitcoin to new heights.

These expert analyses come at a time when Bitcoin’s market performance is already showing signs of strength. The cryptocurrency has continued its rally, currently trading at an impressive $73,435, which represents a 2.07% increase over the last 24 hours. This bullish trend is complemented by a significant increase in trading volume, which has surged by 13.48% in the same period, reaching $63.61 billion.

Such heightened activity indicates growing interest and investment in Bitcoin. However, further evidence of Bitcoin’s robust health is its increased market capitalization, which now stands at $1.44 trillion, up by 2.06%. This rise reflects not only growing investor confidence but also Bitcoin’s expanding influence in the financial landscape.

Bitcoin: Maintaining dominance in the cyptocurrency market

This article examines recent trends in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting Bitcoin’s continued leadership. It also shows crypto investors and traders how to look at how BTC price is trending vs ETH price.

• Unequivocal Dominance: Bitcoin’s market capitalization significantly surpasses its competitors, solidifying its position as the premier digital asset.

• Investor Preference: New capital is increasingly flowing into Bitcoin, particularly through burgeoning exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This suggests investor confidence in Bitcoin’s stability and long-term growth potential.

• Ethereum’s Challenge: While Ethereum boasts a promising roadmap, Bitcoin’s established presence and growing ETF accessibility position it favorably.

Bitcoin ETFs fuel investor interest

The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly enhanced investor appeal.

• Ease of Investment: ETFs offer a regulated and familiar framework for investing in Bitcoin, attracting new participants to the market.

• Market Sentiment: The consistent growth of Bitcoin ETFs reflects the market’s confidence in Bitcoin’s future.

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: A divergent path

While Ethereum offers unique functionalities, Bitcoin’s narrative as a secure and valuable store of value is attracting significant investment.

• Institutional interest: The growth of Bitcoin ETFs signifies increasing institutional endorsement of Bitcoin’s underlying infrastructure. It is still easier for institutions to back up increased investment in Bitcoin vs investment in Ethereum, as it is investing in the ‘safer’ asset within an already risky asset class.

Strategic advantages for crypto investors

Considering current market trends, Bitcoin offers several strategic advantages:

• Heightened trust: Investor confidence in Bitcoin’s stability continues to rise.

• Accessibility: Bitcoin ETFs provide a convenient entry point for new investors.

• Digital gold standard: Bitcoin’s reputation as a digital equivalent to gold is solidifying.

Crypto investment considerations

While Bitcoin presents a compelling opportunity, diversification remains crucial for a well-rounded portfolio.

Conclusion: A calculated move

Unlocking Crypto Secrets: Effortlessly Analyze Ethereum vs. Bitcoin Trends

In this engaging video, we delve into a little-known secret of the crypto world, making it accessible to everyone from seasoned investors to curious newcomers. Discover the competitive dynamics between Ethereum and Bitcoin through the lens of two powerful technical indicators:

1. Bollinger Bands: Uncover volatility and price trends.
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Identify momentum shifts and potential entry or exit points

🔍 Using the daily chart, we break down these indicators into easy-to-understand insights, providing a clear roadmap to navigate the probable future movements of Bitcoin and highlighting strategic moments for potential trend reversals. This tutorial is your key to unlocking the mysteries of crypto trading and investing, offering a simple yet effective tool to enhance your market analysis skills. Whether you’re looking to sharpen your trading strategies or simply curious about crypto trends, this video has something for everyone. 🚀

Investing in Bitcoin transcends mere trend-following; it reflects a strategic understanding of the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. The growth of Bitcoin ETFs and consistent market inflows solidify Bitcoin’s position as a dominant force in the digital asset space. Discerning investors are well-positioned to capitalize on this ongoing trend.

So invest in BTC or invest in ETH? Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s market dominance is strengthening.
• Bitcoin ETFs are attracting new investors to the market.
• Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a secure and valuable store of value.
• Diversification remains important, but Bitcoin may warrant a larger allocation in portfolios.
• See the video above to put up your own chart and identify the overrall trend and waves of smaller trends when seekign to find the relative strength of bitcoin vs. ethereum

Always trade at your own risk only and visit ForexLive.com for additional views, updates, news and analyses.

Events to watch out for today:

14:30 EET USD – Change in retail trade volume

16:30 EET USD – Change in natural gas reserves

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) failed to make meaningful gains during the Asian session on Thursday and remains within the previous day’s extended trading range against its US counterpart. The results of Japan’s spring wage negotiations showed that most companies agreed to union demands for wage increases, paving the way for an imminent policy change by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The ongoing geopolitical tensions provide some support to the safe-haven Japanese Yen, which, along with weak demand for the US Dollar (USD), puts some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

The US Dollar is unable to gain meaningful momentum as investors look for more clarity on the path of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. This further reinforces the USD/JPY pair’s range-bound price movement as traders now look ahead to key central bank events next week – the long-awaited BOJ decision on Tuesday and the Fed’s policy update on Wednesday – before making new directional bets.

Trading recommendation: Trade buy orders when reaching from the 148.10 price level. Sell at the price level of 147.80.

Origin: FreshForex

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Markets await the release of US PPI data as an indicator of US inflation, which ticked up last week from 3.1% to 3.2%.

1. There will be a release later today of US PPI (purchasing power index) data, which is typically taken as a clue regarding inflation. Headline PPI is expected to have grown by 0.3% month-on-month. If the figure is higher, that will likely be bullish for the US Dollar and bearish for US stock markets; vice versa if lower. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen yesterday warned the decline in inflation may not be smooth.
2. Bitcoin advanced again yesterday to make a new all-time high at $73,679, boosted by strong net inflows to ETFs. The short-term price action looks bullish. Trend traders will be interested here on the long side.
3. In the Forex market, the New Zealand Dollar has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open today. The Japanese Yen has been the weakest.
4. In the commodities market, Cocoa futures rose very strongly yesterday to reach new multi-year highs. Trend traders will be keen to be involved in this very long-running trend on the long side.
5. UK GDP data released yesterday showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, as expected.
6. Analysts in Japan are expecting sizable corporate wage rises will be agreed this week, which will likely trigger an abandonment by the Bank of Japan of its current ultra-loose monetary policy as soon as next week.
7. There will be releases of US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims data today at 12:30pm London time.

Bitcoin is presenting signals that suggest a need for caution despite its recent bullish behavior. Investors and technical analysts are closely monitoring the charts for indications of what may lie ahead for the world’s premier digital currency.

As we dissect the BTC/USD pair on TradingView, we find Bitcoin hovering near the resistance level of approximately $69,000. This price point has served as a hard ceiling in recent times, with attempts to break through meeting stiff resistance. The relentless approach toward this barrier indicates strong bullish sentiment on the market, yet the inability to surpass it may lead to a buildup of selling pressure.

Support levels, crucial for maintaining the current rally, are established around $59,586, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. This moving average has historically acted as a reliable support in uptrends, but a break below could signal weakening momentum and the potential for a broader price correction.

Notably, the RSI is showing signs of divergence. While prices have continued to ascend, the RSI has begun to reach lower highs, suggesting that the underlying strength of the recent price increases may be waning. This divergence is often a precursor to a potential price reversal, and seasoned traders will be wary of this classic bearish signal.

XRP shows possibility

XRP is currently flirting with the possibility of a breakdown at the $0.73 resistance level. The asset’s price movement on the charts is painting a picture that has traders and investors alike watching with bated breath to see if support levels will hold or give way to bearish pressure.

Upon analyzing the XRP/USDT pair on TradingView, we observe a challenging landscape. The $0.73 mark, which XRP recently approached with vigor, is proving to be a substantial barrier, one characterized by a cluster of sell orders that have historically capped upward movements. The resulting pushback is not a mere coincidence but a testament to the level’s significance, often acting as a pivot point for XRP’s price trajectory.

Local support levels are holding ground at around the $0.55 mark, where the 100-day moving average provides a cushion. This average is a key indicator for gauging long-term market sentiment, and a breach below this support could signal a bearish trend. Moreover, the $0.60 region has also been acting as a recent psychological support, fortifying the area between it and the 100-day moving average as a zone of considerable importance.

The looming resistance at $0.73 coupled with a massive selling wall suggests the potential for a breakdown. Should this resistance persist, we may witness XRP retracing its steps back to test lower support regions. Such a move would validate the concerns of a breakdown, potentially leading to a sell-off.

Solana in questionable state

Solana is not facing any problems, but at the same time, it is not really in a great state. While the technical price charts hint at bullish sentiment, underlying issues such as decreased inflows and trader hesitation present substantial challenges for the asset.

The SOL/USDT pair on TradingView has exhibited a commendable bullish trend, with the price recently hovering around the $150 mark. Local support levels have been identified near $120 and $111, corresponding with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, respectively. These levels have historically served as robust safety nets during pullbacks, suggesting a strong buyer presence at these points.

On the resistance front, Solana faces its immediate hurdle near the $165 level. Overcoming this could pave the way for further upward momentum. However, the concern lies not in the chart but in the market dynamics. 

Despite Solana’s promising technology and strong community support, recent network outages have dented the confidence of investors and traders alike. The blockchain’s reliability is under scrutiny, leading to a lack of conviction among traders to commit to Solana, as seen in the tapering inflows.

The dollar is keeping steadier still so far this week, trading lightly changed on the day. USD/JPY remains the one in the spotlight with the pair now trading up to around 147.90. It seems that traders are unconvinced of a more hawkish take by the BOJ going into next week’s meeting, despite early optimism on the spring wage negotiations outcome.

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Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) ranked fourth by net inflows for the first time since launch. Net inflows fell from $215.5 million (Mar 11) to $51.6 million (Mar 12), according to BitMEX Research.

Significantly, the Nine saw net inflows break the $1,000 million barrier for the first time since launch. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows tumble to $79.0 million, resulting in BTC-spot ETF net inflows of $1,045 million.

The BTC-spot ETF market stats were significant. Investors continued to enter the BTC-spot ETF market despite BTC sitting at record highs. Demand continues to signal a move toward $100,000 as the Bitcoin Halving event approaches.

MicroStrategy Targets More BTC with New Private Offering

MicroStrategy (MSTR) announced another public offering to acquire more BTC in the pre-Butcoin Halving frenzy. On Wednesday, MicroStrategy founder and Chairman Michael Saylor shared a press release, saying,

“MicroStrategy Announces Proposed Private Offering of $500 Million of Convertible Senior Notes”

The private offering is the second in two weeks. On Monday (Mar 11), Saylor announced the purchase of 12,000 BTC, using proceeds from convertible notes and excess cash. MicroStrategy may use proceeds from the latest funding round to acquire more BTC.