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USD/JPY Outlook: Economic Indicators and the BoJ

• Bullish Yen Scenario: Strong Japanese data, intervention threats, or a hawkish BoJ rhetoric could push USD/JPY toward 153. If breached, the 50-day EMA and 149.358 would be the next key support levels.
• Bearish Yen Scenario: Weak data or a dovish BoJ commentary may send the pair toward 155. A sustained move through 155 would bring the 156.884 resistance level into play.

Crucially, a rise toward 155 could raise expectations of the Ministry of Finance warning of an intervention, mirroring events in 2024. The potential for intervention will likely be the key downside risk for USD/JPY in the near-term, given that MoF warnings tend to follow sharp yen depreciation.

While Japanese economic data, BoJ forward guidance, and intervention threats will move the dial, traders should closely monitor US data, Fed chatter, and developments on Capitol Hill.

Labor Market Data, the ISM Services PMI, the Fed, and Capitol Hill in Focus

Traders may continue to face heightened USD/JPY volatility amid shifting sentiment toward the Fed and BoJ’s policy outlooks. Meanwhile, US Senate votes, economic data, and Fed commentary will also influence USD/JPY trends. Key events for the week ahead include:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (November 3): Expected to rise from 49.1 in September to 49.2 in October.
• JOLTs job openings: (November 4): Economists expect job openings to drop from 7.227 million in August to 7.2 million in September.
• ADP Employment Change (November 5): Forecast to rise by 25k in October after falling 32k in September.
• ISM Services PMI (November 5): Expected to increase from 50.0 in September to 51.0 in October.
• Initial Jobless Claims (November 6): Dependent on the US government reopening. Expected to rise from 218k week ending September 20 to 259k week ending November 1.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November 7): Forecast to rise from 53.6 in October to 54.0 in November.
• Nonfarm payrolls (November 7): Dependent on the US government reopening. Expected to rise 55k in October after September’s 61k increase.
• Unemployment rate (November 7): Dependent on the US government reopening. Forecast to remain at 4.3%.
• Average hourly earnings (November 7): Dependent on the US government reopening. Expected to increase 3.6% year-on-year in October, down from 3.7% in September.

US Data and Fed Speakers to Drive Fed Rate Cut Bets

Weaker-than-expected US labor market data, slower service sector activity, and falling consumer confidence may revive bets on a December Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed policy stance could push USD/JPY toward 153. A break below 153 would enable the bears to target the 50-day EMA and the 149.358 support level.

Stronger-than-expected US labor market data, a higher ISM Services PMI reading, and a pickup in consumer confidence could temper expectations of a December Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed rate path may drive USD/JPY toward 155. A breakout from 155 could pave the way toward the 156.884 resistance level.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches for views on inflation, the economy, and the timing of further rate cuts.

Short-term Forecast:

• Bullish US Dollar Scenario: Strong US economic data and hawkish Fed commentary may send USD/JPY toward 156.884.
• Bearish US Dollar Scenario: Weak US data and dovish Fed rhetoric could push USD/JPY toward 149.358.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, USD/JPY continued to trade above the 50- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bullish bias.

A break above the October 31, 2025, high of 154.415 could pave the way toward 155 and the February 2025 high of 155.880. A sustained move through 155.880 may open the door to retesting the 156.884 resistance level.

On the downside, a drop below 153 could bring the 50-day EMA and the 150 psychological support level into play. If breached, 149.358 would be the next key support level.

The price of (EURUSD) settled lower with calm trading on its last intraday levels, due to the stability of the critical support at 1.1550, with the beginning of the positive signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, attempting to offload some of the oversold conditions, amid the continuation of the negative pressure and the dynamic resistance that is represented by its trading below EMA50, under the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside trendline.

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GBP/USD Extends Slide to Six-Month Lows as Fiscal Strains and Fed Tone Collide

The GBP/USD pair has plunged to 1.3116, marking its weakest level since April as a hawkish Federal Reserve stance collides with growing UK fiscal anxiety. The pound’s fourth straight day of declines underscores deep market unease over the Bank of England’s policy paralysis, a surging U.S. dollar, and expectations that the upcoming UK Autumn Budget will tighten spending rather than stimulate growth. Sterling has now fallen over 2% through October, and traders are eyeing a potential test of the 1.3080–1.3000 zone if downside momentum persists.

Fed’s Hawkish Pause Strengthens the Dollar and Squeezes GBP/USD

The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 bps rate cut, initially viewed as a dovish sign, turned sharply hawkish after Chair Jerome Powell warned that further easing in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” This recalibration pushed the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to 99.70, its highest in nearly three months, driving broad-based gains against major currencies. Futures pricing of another cut in December dropped from 100% to 70%, flattening the yield curve and tightening financial conditions. The dollar’s strength has crushed the pound’s fragile recovery attempts, with investors shifting capital toward higher-yielding U.S. assets while the UK remains stuck in policy indecision.

BoE Policy Dilemma and UK Economic Strain Erode Sterling Confidence

The Bank of England faces a dilemma as headline inflation remains at 3.8% year-over-year, nearly double its 2% target, while unemployment has risen to 4.8%, its highest since mid-2021. GDP growth for Q2 came in at a weak 0.3%, reflecting stagnation. Despite mounting pressure for stimulus, the BoE is widely expected to hold rates at 4.00% in the November 6 meeting. Market consensus now sees the first BoE rate cut delayed until February 2026, with policymakers fearing further pound depreciation could worsen imported inflation. This combination of sticky prices and slowing growth has revived concerns of stagflation, a toxic mix last seen during the late 1970s.

Fiscal Headwinds Deepen as UK Faces £30B Budget Gap

The looming Autumn Budget on November 26 adds another layer of uncertainty. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects a £20 billion productivity shortfall and £7.2 billion in higher-than-expected borrowing in the first half of 2025, leaving the Chancellor with limited fiscal room. Rachel Reeves is cornered between keeping her no-tax-rise pledge and closing a widening deficit that could exceed £30 billion. Any sign of aggressive fiscal tightening could weigh further on domestic growth expectations and investor sentiment. Sterling traders are now demanding higher yields on gilts, reflecting greater risk premiums to hold UK-denominated assets amid this policy uncertainty.

Technical Pressure Builds Below 1.3140 as Market Eyes 1.3080–1.3000 Support

Technically, GBP/USD has broken through several critical support zones. The 1.3140 region—marking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2099–1.3788 rally—failed to hold, confirming a medium-term bearish continuation. The next layer sits at 1.3080–1.3088, aligned with the 100% extension of the June decline and the 52-week moving average. A decisive close below this threshold would open a path toward 1.2940, the 50% retracement of the yearly range. Momentum indicators back the bearish tone: the RSI hovers near 30, showing oversold but not exhausted conditions, while price action remains capped below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Short-term rebounds toward 1.3200 or 1.3280 are likely to face heavy selling pressure as traders position for deeper downside.

U.S.–China Trade Sentiment Adds Volatility but Favors the Dollar

Hopes of improved U.S.–China relations offered brief relief earlier in the week after President Trump hinted at renewed energy purchases from Alaska, but traders quickly dismissed the optimism. With China’s PMI contracting to 49.0, its seventh straight month of decline, and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil limiting supply flows, risk sentiment remains fragile. The stronger dollar environment has persisted despite intermittent risk-on sessions, underscoring global preference for U.S. liquidity amid uncertainty.

Market Outlook: Further Downside Bias Dominates GBP/USD

With U.S. yields holding near cycle highs and UK macro fundamentals deteriorating, the pound remains vulnerable to further weakness. Market positioning shows elevated short interest on GBP/USD, suggesting continued bearish sentiment through early November. Unless the Bank of England surprises with dovish guidance or the U.S. data turns sharply weaker, upside potential appears limited. The pair could consolidate briefly above 1.3080, but a break lower would likely extend the decline toward 1.2940–1.3000, marking new multi-month lows.

Verdict: Bearish — GBP/USD likely to test 1.3000 before any meaningful recovery as fiscal and policy pressures intensify

That’s TradingNEWS

Copper price attempted to activate the bullish trend, to end it after reaching the barrier at$5.2000, which forces it to decline correctively to settle near$5.0400.

We expect providing mixed trading, but its main stability within the bullish channel’s levels by forming extra support at $4.7500 level will increase the chances of gathering positive momentum, to repeat the attempts to achieve extra gains that might extend to $5.3200 and $5.5000.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9200 and $5.2200

Trend forecast fluctuated within the bullish track

Copper price attempted to activate the bullish trend, to end it after reaching the barrier at$5.2000, which forces it to decline correctively to settle near$5.0400.

We expect providing mixed trading, but its main stability within the bullish channel’s levels by forming extra support at $4.7500 level will increase the chances of gathering positive momentum, to repeat the attempts to achieve extra gains that might extend to $5.3200 and $5.5000.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9200 and $5.2200

Trend forecast fluctuated within the bullish track

Image © Adobe Images

TS Lombard says recent dollar strength won’t sustain.

“We retain a negative view on the U.S. dollar, despite recent stabilisation,” says Kiran Kowshik, Global FX Strategist at Lombard Odier.

The Swiss bank says the U.S. dollar has stabilised higher since mid-September, reflecting a voting pattern at the September Fed meeting where some members preferred a more cautious approach to cuts.

Globally, ex-USD weakness was also apparent due to the uncertain political news flow from France and Japan.

Looking aheada, Lombard Odier says dollar-specific drivers are to resume dominance of pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

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“While markets already price in the Fed funds rate eventually falling to 3%, the sequencing matters: the Fed is cutting rates just as several other major central banks (including in Europe and Switzerland) have ended their easing cycles,” says Kowshik.

“This type of sequencing was seen in the 1980s and 1990s and resulted in USD depreciation as the Fed eased (see chart 2). We maintain a 12-month EURUSD forecast of 1.22.”

Regarding the pound vs. dollar, a GBP/USD recovery is anticipated by the Swiss bank.

“Combined with renewed weakness in the USD, GBP/USD could see a more significant move higher heading into December if the UK Budget does not surprise market expectations. Our 12-month GBP/USD forecast stands at 1.37,” says Kowshik.

He adds that the pre-budget anxieties that have pressed down on sterling over recent months are not unusual and the currency tends to recover after budget events.

“Historically, sterling tends to weaken heading into the Budget but sees relief thereafter,” says Kowshik.

Today’s economic indicators signaled a potential pickup in economic momentum and rising national inflation, supporting a more hawkish BoJ rate path. Given these dynamics, USD/JPY maintains a bearish bias despite Powell downplaying the odds of a December rate cut. However, traders should closely monitor comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, an advocate for ultra-loose monetary policy.

Fed Speakers and Capitol Hill in Focus

While Japanese data may fuel speculation about a BoJ rate hike, the continued US government shutdown will likely delay key economic reports. In the absence of September’s Personal Income and Outlays Report, traders should closely monitor Fed speeches.

FOMC members Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack, along with Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, are due to deliver speeches later in the Friday session. Economists consider the three regional bank presidents relatively hawkish, suggesting they may argue against a December rate cut.

Calls to delay a December Fed rate cut would reinforce Powell’s stance and may sustain US dollar strength. While short-term dollar strength could lift USD/JPY toward 154.45, the broader outlook remains bearish amid BoJ policy normalization.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a 25-basis-point cut in December fell from 91.1% on October 23 to 66.6% on October 29. This sharp repricing followed Powell’s press conference.

USD/JPY Scenarios: Monetary Policy Divergence

• Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: hawkish BoJ rhetoric and dovish Fed commentary could push USD/JPY toward the 153 level.
• Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: dovish BoJ comments and hawkish Fed chatter could send USD/JPY toward 155.

Created on October 30, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Remains neutral.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1550 – 1.1480.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1685 – 1.1730 – 1.1800.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1490.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1760 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1810.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

The bears quickly returned to the EUR/USD currency pair across trusted trading company platforms, breaking below the 1.1600 level again. This followed the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point interest rate cut. However, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices declined after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there is still a heated discussion about whether to follow up today’s rate cut with another. Powell added, “A further rate cut at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, quite the opposite. Monetary policy is not on a preset course.”

Future of US Interest Rates

In this regard, the Federal Reserve’s decision on US interest rates has sparked opposition from both sides, with one side calling for further rate cuts and the other advocating for keeping rates higher. President Trump, who has repeatedly called for faster U.S. interest rate cuts, again criticized Powell ahead of Wednesday’s decision, saying the administration would be “very happy” to see his term end.

Trump spoke from South Korea, where both sides said they were close to finalizing a trade deal—marking progress after months of thorny talks over a $350 billion investment pledged by Seoul to the US. In this context, the US President is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea tomorrow, and investors hope this meeting will pave the way for NVIDIA to regain access to the Chinese market.

Meanwhile, across stock trading company platforms, NVIDIA’s stock jumped, making it the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion. Booming sales of the company’s flagship AI chip were crucial to this surge.

Overall, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about the December rate-setting meeting—which will be held in six weeks—went far beyond the usual disavowal that Fed decisions are not on a preset course. Instead, his comments revealed a broader discomfort among at least some of his colleagues with the unrealistic investor expectation that a December rate cut is guaranteed. Powell said: “It may be time for some Committee members to step back a little and see if there are actually downside risks to the labor market.” Powell added that this week’s meeting revealed a “growing chorus” of policymakers who are asking: “Maybe we need to wait a while.”

In the past, Powell has tried to deflect questions about upcoming policy decisions by refocusing attention on the policy actions at that particular meeting.

Technical Analysis for the EUR/USD Pair

Based on the daily chart trading, the EUR/USD bears have gained momentum to push the currency prices lower. This is confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) being stable around a reading of 47, below the neutral line, and having more time to head toward stronger downward levels before reaching oversold territory. In the same performance, the MACD indicator is steadily leaning downwards. The bears’ focus is directed towards the support levels of 1.1590 and 1.1480 first.

The current downward bias for EUR/USD is anticipating important events, led by the announcement of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decisions at 16:15 Cairo time, followed by statements from ECB Governor Lagarde half an hour after the bank’s decision is announced. Before that, the German economic growth reading will be announced at 12:00 PM Cairo time, and the Eurozone economic growth reading will be announced at 1:00 PM Cairo time. On the US side, no important data releases are expected today.

Conversely, as we mentioned before, the success of the EUR/USD bull scenario remains contingent on a return to the 1.1800 resistance level. Otherwise, the downward trend will continue until further notice.

Trading Advice:

We still advise selling the EUR/USD pair on any strong upward retracement, but never take unnecessary risks.

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Created on October 31, 2025

• I was watching the British Pound try to rally early Thursday, but it couldn’t get above 1.32 before rolling over again.
• The dollar’s gaining strength across the board, and with the pound breaking major support, I’m looking forward to shorting any rallies.

The British Pound initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but has found the area above the 1.32 level to be a bit too much, and we have just fallen off again. I’ll bring to light that we’ve had two FOMC meetings since the peak, and we have done nothing but fall since then, with the occasional short-term bounce.

The US dollar is strengthening against almost everything, and it’s worth noting that the bond market yields really aren’t moving either. In other words, I do think that the US dollar has entered a bullish phase, and it is worth noting that we have broken a major support level during the trading session. If we break down below 1.31, then the market really could drop possibly as low as 1.2750 before it’s all said and done.

The Pound Used to Be Strong

Until recently, the British Pound was one of the better performers against the US dollar, but clearly, people are expecting the Bank of England to have to cut rates and loosen monetary policy, and the British Pound has been punished as a result. Short-term rallies at this point, I believe, end up being selling opportunities, with the 1.32 level offering resistance and, of course, the 200-day EMA offering resistance at the 1.3273 level.

Breaking down below there during the previous session was a very serious shot across the bow, and the fact that we are continuing that overall downward pressure really drives home the idea that the US dollar is accelerating to the upside. As far as buying is concerned, at minimum, you would need to see a move back above the 200-day EMA, perhaps even a move above the 50-day EMA, which is hanging around the 1.34 level—an area that’s been important more than once as well. We broke a major uptrend line, and it looks like the US dollar is strengthening against almost everything. Therefore, shorting this pair makes perfect sense.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.