EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third consecutive session, trading around 178.40 during the European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross shows strong short-term momentum, trading above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, signaling a strengthening bullish bias.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross tests the crucial level of 178.50, followed by the all-time high of 178.82, reached on October 30, near the psychological level of 179.00. Further advances above this confluence resistance area would open the doors for the currency cross to explore the region around the psychological level of 180.00.
The immediate support lies at the psychological level of 178.00, followed by the nine-day EMA at 177.55. A break below the latter would weaken the short-term price momentum and prompt the EUR/JPY cross to test the ascending trendline around 176.50, followed by the 50-day EMA at 175.51.
Further declines below the 50-day EMA would dampen the medium-term price momentum and cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the two-month low of 172.14, which was recorded on September 9.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.04%
0.41%
0.19%
0.10%
0.27%
0.02%
-0.14%
EUR
-0.04%
0.37%
0.14%
0.06%
0.23%
-0.01%
-0.18%
GBP
-0.41%
-0.37%
-0.22%
-0.30%
-0.17%
-0.39%
-0.54%
JPY
-0.19%
-0.14%
0.22%
-0.09%
0.08%
-0.18%
-0.33%
CAD
-0.10%
-0.06%
0.30%
0.09%
0.17%
-0.09%
-0.24%
AUD
-0.27%
-0.23%
0.17%
-0.08%
-0.17%
-0.24%
-0.46%
NZD
-0.02%
0.00%
0.39%
0.18%
0.09%
0.24%
-0.16%
CHF
0.14%
0.18%
0.54%
0.33%
0.24%
0.46%
0.16%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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Pound Still Vulnerable on Fundamental Grounds, GBP/USD Still Looking for Escape Velocity
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) secured a further recovery last Friday as the dollar lost ground.
It hit highs of 1.3180 in early Europe on Monday amid a jump in risk appetite before settling around 1.3160 with unease over UK fundamentals limiting the scope for further gains.
According to UoB; “Upward momentum has slowed, and today, we expect GBP to trade in range, most likely between 1.3105 and 1.3175.”
Standard Chartered commented; “GBP/USD appears technically oversold, leaving scope for a short-term corrective rebound. We see the significant resistance around 1.35.”
Risk appetite has been boosted by hopes that the US government shutdown will end following the Senate vote in favour of the latest compromise bill.
A boost to risk appetite could undermine the US currency, although there would also be an important element of relief surrounding the economy amid increased evidence that the shutdown is having a damaging impact.
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ING commented; “While some might argue that the end of the shutdown could be a risk-on, dollar-negative impulse for the FX markets, its impact may be more mixed. Late last week, the dollar was under pressure on job layoffs and rhetoric that the US economy could contract in the fourth quarter should the shutdown extend.”
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index retreated to 50.3 for November from 53.6 previously. This was below expectations of 53.0 and the second-weakest reading on record.
MUFG added; “Household finances deteriorated markedly with the index also hitting a record low in November.”
According to ING market analyst Tony Sycamore; “The consumer confidence data was a shocker and pretty clear evidence that the shutdown was affecting households, so this does alleviate the damage that’s been done.”
Domestically, markets will continue to monitor any hints surrounding tax measures in the November 26th budget. Fiscal policy will also feed into expectations surrounding Bank of England policy.
UK data will also be watched closely with the labour-market release on Tuesday.
Consensus forecasts are for the unemployment rate to edge higher to a fresh 4-year high of 4.9% from 4.8% while underlying earnings growth is expected to slow to 4.6% from 4.7%.
Weaker than expected data would reinforce expectations that BoE Governor Bailey will back a rate cut at the December meeting.
ING remains cautious surrounding the Pound prospects; “We still think the prospects of a December 25bp cut from the Bank of England are underpriced. The market now attaches just a 60% probability to such an outcome.”
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I analyze USD/JPY’s continued strength, noting resistance near ¥154–155 and support at ¥153.
With interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. dollar and Japan’s ongoing quantitative easing, I expect further upside toward ¥160 on pullbacks.
The U.S. dollar has shown itself to be stronger against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Monday as we are trying to break above the ¥154 level, but it’s probably going to take some type of external pressure or whatever to get this pair going higher. If we finally clear the ¥155 level, then I think you’ve got a real shot at this market taking off to the upside. And if it does, then we really get moving much higher.
Support Below
That being said, I think you also have to keep in mind that the ¥153 level offers support, and it’s an area that previously had been resistance. When I look at this, I think market memory coming into play makes a certain amount of sense. The interest rate differential, of course, favors the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, and I think it probably will going forward.
Ultimately, this is a market where the interest rate differential really makes the difference, and with this being the case, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see the market really take off toward the ¥160 level.
This is especially true as the Bank of Japan has no real hope of cutting the quantitative easing trajectory that they’ve been on for decades. The Federal Reserve has recently suggested that the rate-cutting cycle may not be as aggressive as the market has been pricing in, and therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where it’s a bit of a perfect storm. So, at this point, I do like this market on dips, as I think it gives you value that you can take advantage of from time to time.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
EUR/USD failed to make a decisive move on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged. The pair remains in a consolidation phase early Tuesday and continues to fluctuate near 1.1550.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.03%
0.14%
0.19%
-0.19%
-0.49%
-0.36%
-0.24%
EUR
0.03%
0.16%
0.25%
-0.19%
-0.49%
-0.36%
-0.24%
GBP
-0.14%
-0.16%
0.16%
-0.35%
-0.65%
-0.52%
-0.39%
JPY
-0.19%
-0.25%
-0.16%
-0.44%
-0.73%
-0.59%
-0.52%
CAD
0.19%
0.19%
0.35%
0.44%
-0.21%
-0.18%
-0.11%
AUD
0.49%
0.49%
0.65%
0.73%
0.21%
0.13%
0.25%
NZD
0.36%
0.36%
0.52%
0.59%
0.18%
-0.13%
0.12%
CHF
0.24%
0.24%
0.39%
0.52%
0.11%
-0.25%
-0.12%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The risk-positive market atmosphere on growing optimism about the US government shutdown coming to an end made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to gather strength. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision in December capped the pair’s upside, as investors refrained from betting on a broad USD weakness given the heightened probability of a Fed policy hold.
November ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Index data for Germany and the Eurozone will be featured in the European economic calendar on Tuesday. Later in the session, NFIB Business Optimism Index and the Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP) newly introduced weekly ADP Employment Change data will be watched closely by market participants.
In case there is a negative print in the ADP data, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure and allow EUR/USD to stretch higher. On the flip side, a reading at or above 20K could have the opposite impact on the currency’s action.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade mixed following the risk rally seen in Wall Street on Monday. The funding bill, which will pave the way for the government’s reopening and was approved by the Senate, will head to the House of Representatives for a final approval on Wednesday. Once the government is funded, investors will await the release of key data, such as the Consumer Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls and Gross Domestic Product, that were postponed during the shutdown.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades between the 50-period and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator moves sideways slightly above 50, reflecting the pair’s indecisiveness.
On the downside, 1.1530 (50-period SMA) aligns as the first support level before 1.1500 (static level) and 1.1450 (end-point of the downtrend). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1570-1.1580 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, 100-period SMA), 1.1630 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.1680 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last trading on the intraday basis, taking advantage of its continuous trading above EMA50, providing renewed bullish momentum, amid the effect of breaching minor bearish trend line on the short-term basis, besides forming positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals.
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The EURJPY pair faced new bullish pressure due to stochastic approach from the overbought level, to achieve some gains by its stability near 178.45.
Reminding you that activating the bullish attack requires surpassing 178.70 level and holding above it, to ease the mission of recording new gains that might begin at 179.40, while the failure of the breach will push it to form mixed trading, and there is a chance for gathering gains again by reaching 177.50 initially, reaching the extra support near 177.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 177.70 and 178.70
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded in a tight range on Monday, with Sterling holding steady amid renewed optimism that the ongoing US government shutdown could soon be resolved.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3160, virtually unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.
The US Dollar (USD) lacked clear direction at the start of the week, as the US Senate narrowly passed a bill to resolve the historic government shutdown.
Although a resolution was welcomed by markets, it sparked a shift in risk sentiment. Investors scaled back their safe-haven USD exposure as the prospect of a shutdown resolution boosted risk appetite.
Despite the positive momentum, traders remained cautious, knowing that the end of the shutdown could bring a deluge of delayed federal data.
Key releases, including September’s non-farm payrolls report, could potentially increase volatility in the coming days, particularly if they alter expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
The Pound (GBP) was largely steady on Monday, buoyed by the improved market mood.
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However, Sterling’s upside remained capped as lingering uncertainties surrounding the UK’s upcoming autumn budget continued to weigh on investor sentiment.
Speculation over potential tax increases and fiscal tightening dominated the narrative, overshadowing any positive drivers for the Pound.
As Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget announcement approaches, market focus is likely to remain on fiscal policy and its impact on future Bank of England (BoE) rate decisions, particularly as the fiscal statement could reveal significant shifts in economic priorities.
GBP/USD Forecast: Rising UK Jobless Rate to Dent Sterling?
Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate may face renewed pressure on Tuesday, with the release of fresh UK labour market data.
September’s figures are expected to show a rise in the unemployment rate and easing wage growth, which could weigh on Sterling.
A weaker jobs report would reinforce expectations that the BoE may lower interest rates when it meets next month, adding downward pressure on GBP.
Meanwhile, developments in Washington will remain a key factor for the US Dollar.
Progress on the shutdown and any moves toward a funding agreement could support the Greenback, potentially dampening further GBP/USD upside.
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Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1520 – 1.1460 – 1.1390
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1610 – 1.1690 – 1.1770
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1480 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
The ongoing US government shutdown and the divergent market expectations for the future policies of the US Federal Reserve continue to heavily influence the trajectory of the US Dollar against other major currencies, as well as the rest of the global financial markets. The US government shutdown is preventing the release of US jobs figures, which are the most important economic data affecting market expectations for the future of Federal Reserve policy. In addition to that report, US inflation readings are due to be announced this week.
Prior to that, the EUR/USD pair attempted to recover from its three-month lows when it plunged to the 1.1468 support level last week, but the cautious upward rebound gains did not exceed the 1.1592 resistance level before closing the week stabilized around the 1.1560 level.
Will the EUR/USD pair fall to the 1.1400 support level?
According to Forex currency trading experts’ forecasts, the bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair was confirmed by its stabilization below the 1.1600 support. As I mentioned before, this opens the door for further downward pressure on the currency pair, which has happened. The continuation of the bearish outlook does not rule out a drop to the 1.1400 support level, especially since the technical indicators, which have turned bearish, have room to move downward before reaching the oversold zone. Currently, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around a reading of 44, below the neutral line, and at the same time, the MACD indicator lines are steadily leaning downward.
Conversely, on the same timeframe, the daily chart indicates a strong bullish scenario for the EUR/USD pair, requiring a move towards the psychological resistance level of 1.1800. Today’s EUR/USD trading is not focused on any major US economic releases; the only anticipated indicator is the Sentix Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index, due at 11:30 AM Cairo time.
Trading Tips:
The EUR/USD gains will remain vulnerable to rapid collapse until investor confidence returns to the market, which could happen with the end of the US government shutdown.
The future of US central bank policy is becoming increasingly uncertain.
The prospects for US monetary policy remained ambiguous following the recent wave of statements from Federal Reserve officials. Divisions among Fed policymakers persisted in the wake of last Wednesday’s US interest rate cut, raising doubts about their ability to agree on another cut at their anticipated meeting on December 9-10. While some officials openly supported further monetary easing, others expressed reluctance, if not opposition, to cutting US interest rates again next month.
In short, the overall tone of official statements on Thursday and earlier this week reinforced Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s assertion that a December US interest rate cut is “not a given.”
John Williams, President of the New York Fed, one of Powell’s most prominent aides as Vice Chair of the policy-making FOMC, had been supportive of policy easing in recent weeks to address labor market weakness, but last Thursday he limited his comments to saying the bank must adhere to its 2% inflation target and strive for “price stability.”
Meanwhile, Austin Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who voted for rate cuts in September and October, appeared less insistent on another rate cut on Thursday, particularly given the lack of economic data from the closed federal government. He saw “stabilization” in the labor market and expressed deep concern about inflation in the absence of statistics. Meanwhile, Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who will join the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting line next year, was more vocal in her opposition to another near-term rate cut, arguing that inflation is a greater concern than the struggling labor market and emphasizing the need for monetary policy to remain “in a fairly restrictive position to achieve the right balance of our objectives.”
Overall, for the second consecutive meeting, the FOMC lowered the US interest rate by 25 basis points on October 29 to a target range of 3.75% to 4.0%. However, in an unusually split decision, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran opposed a 50-basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed the decision, favoring keeping rates unchanged.
In addition to this easing move, the FOMC moved faster than many expected to halt “quantitative tightening” by the end of this month. The FOMC had cut the interest rate by the same amount on September 17 to a target range of 4.0% to 4.25%. In its revised Summary of Economic Projections, published in September, FOMC participants anticipated another 25 basis points of monetary easing at the Committee’s final meeting in 2025.
Despite 25 basis points remaining in the September “dot plot,” Powell stressed in his October 29 press conference that a rate cut on December 9-10 “is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” He noted “sharp differences in views on how to proceed in December.” He added that the FOMC has cut the federal funds rate by 150 basis points since it began easing monetary policy in September 2024, making policy now “150 basis points closer to neutral.” He added that this prompts some officials to “pause” and “wait” before easing policy further, while others wish to “move forward” with more easing.
Powell said the FOMC “will resume monetary easing at some point,” but added that it is trying to deal with a “difficult” and “complex” situation that requires “balancing” the two-sided risks—either in favor of inflation or in favor of jobs. In this climate, he said it is appropriate to be “cautious.” He added that if there is a “high degree of uncertainty” on December 10, “that might justify caution about moving.”
GBP/USD rebound reflects an unwinding of oversold conditions rather than the start of a sustained uptrend, with gains likely capped near 1.3235.
The pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) reached its lowest level since April last week at 1.3010, but has since recovered to 1.3170.
The recovery is shallow and lacks the vigour that would normally be associated with a bottoming pattern, leaving us wary of a continuation of the selloff.
This is why we would characterise the current rally as a mean reversion, and not the start of a renewed push higher.
The pair looks to be recovering from the oversold conditions seen at the start of the month, the culmination of the steady selling pressure seen through the course of October.
The RSI – lower panel in the chart – had fallen below 30, which triggers caution and indicates that those oversold conditions must unwind.
Exchange rates tend to mean-revert, and we are seeing that in GBP/USD. The week ahead forecast looks for that to play out a little further, targeting a move to the 21-day exponential moving average at 1.3235.
Above: GBP/USD looks to be eyeing a return to the 21-day EMA (blue line). Note the bounce out of oversold on the RSI in lower panel.
However, while below this EMA the pair is in a downtrend and the relief could attract more sellers, ready to target new multi-month lows.
1.3010 is the new post-April low, and below here is a potential support region; the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Q1-2025 rally.
How far GBP/USD can travel will depend on Tuesday’s UK labour market data, where the unemployment rate is expected to have fallen to 4.9% in October from 4.8% in September, owing to rising unemployment and inactivity.
A more severe deterioration in the headline employment numbers would trigger a selloff in the pound, undermining our tactical expectation for a short-term recovery.
Also, keep an eye on the wage figures, as this is closely associated with inflation. The figure to beat is 4.6%.
Quarterly GDP is due Thursday, where the consensus looks for a 0.2% increase in Q3. The UK economy has actually been doing OK this quarter, according to the PMI surveys and retail sales data.
This means a beat on expectations can’t be ruled out. If it happens, then GBP/USD can end the week above 1.3235.
Stateside, there will be no official U.S. data owing to the government shutdown, which deprives us of a previously scheduled inflation data release.
This is one of the two marquee economic calendar events in any given month, the other being non-farm payroll data.
Nevertheless, “attention this week will turn to remarks from several Fed officials, which could provide new clues on how the central bank is balancing softening consumer confidence with a fragile labour market,” says Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade.
Above: The Fed’s Waller speaks Wednesday.
“Dovish remarks could weigh on both the dollar and yields,” he adds.
Markets see a 65% probability of a December rate cut, which signals ample scope for a repricing in either direction, based on the tone of upcoming commentary and non-official data releases.
The weekend saw some progress towards ending the record-long government shutdown, with Senate Democrats voting through a procedural measure to advance a bill to pass funding.
“It looks like we’re getting closer to the shutdown ending,” President Donald Trump said Sunday.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said over the weekend that a bipartisan budget framework is taking shape.
There’s no clear timeline for the reopening, which means the Fed’s December policy meeting will happen without official data to assess.
However, sentiment would receive a boost on a reopening of government, setting the scene for a recovery in stocks, which would weigh on the dollar.
