DXY is currently trading at 98.67, stuck below the downward sloping trendline that has consistently sunk every attempted rally. Candlesticks keep showing the pattern of repeatedly getting knocked back down near 99.18, which is no surprise given it’s a clear resistance level. The downward sloping moving averages are just another bearish sign to add to the list.
Elsewhere, the RSI is hovering around 44, which suggests that momentum is very weak but still not quite to the point of being oversold. The first line of defence for buyers is at 98.23, with a more significant support level located at 97.82.
Break below 98.00 and watch as the price drops all the way to 97.49. On the other hand bulls will need a strong close above 99.18 to even think about challenging 99.53
Trade idea: Think about selling if we see a break below $98.20, and be prepared to stop out if we get a close above $99.20.
GBP/USD Steadies at 1.3508 – The Uptrend looks healthy but the Bulls are getting a bit tired
No news for GBPJPY pair until this moment, confined between 214.80 support, while 215.70 level keeps forming a strong barrier against the bullish attempts, forcing it to provide sideways trading by its fluctuation near 215.60.
Note that stochastic approach 80 level might help it to provide extra positive momentum to surpass the current barrier, reinforcing the chances of reaching new bullish stations that might begin at 216.40 and 216.90, while the failure of the breach will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, to press on the previously mentioned support and surpassing it will make the initial main target at 214.10 level in the bearish trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.80 and 215.70
EUR/JPY inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 186.70 during Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned within the ascending channel, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross holds a bullish near-term bias as it consolidates above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), respectively. The currency cross is hovering just under the recent highs, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, suggesting positive but not extreme momentum that keeps the door open for another push higher while dips remain contained.
The EUR/JPY cross may advance toward the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.70.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.75, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 186.60. A sustained break below the channel would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the 50-day EMA at 184.94.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.06%
-0.07%
-0.10%
-0.03%
-0.30%
-0.17%
-0.02%
EUR
0.06%
0.02%
-0.04%
0.03%
-0.22%
-0.09%
0.04%
GBP
0.07%
-0.02%
-0.04%
0.02%
-0.22%
-0.09%
0.04%
JPY
0.10%
0.04%
0.04%
0.08%
-0.20%
-0.09%
0.11%
CAD
0.03%
-0.03%
-0.02%
-0.08%
-0.27%
-0.16%
0.01%
AUD
0.30%
0.22%
0.22%
0.20%
0.27%
0.14%
0.28%
NZD
0.17%
0.09%
0.09%
0.09%
0.16%
-0.14%
0.15%
CHF
0.02%
-0.04%
-0.04%
-0.11%
-0.01%
-0.28%
-0.15%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has drifted around 1.3500, with markets cautious ahead of the upcoming Bank of England policy update and ongoing uncertainty surrounding energy prices and UK politics.
While stronger UK data has offered some support, rising cost pressures, leadership risks, and expectations that the Bank of England may hold rates are limiting Sterling’s upside.
GBP/USD Forecasts: BoE update due
ING forecasts that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will edge lower to 1.33 at the end of 2026 before a slight gain to 1.36 at the end of next year.
GBP/USD drifted lower during the week to trade around 1.35 amid further uncertainty surrounding the Iran situation and mixed UK fundamentals.
Energy prices will remain a key short-term element. Matsui Securities commented; “Oil and the dollar are still moving pretty closely together, and with crude creeping back up, I’d say the dollar is still staying fairly firm.”
There were further political concerns during the week as the Mandelson scandal continued.
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ING commented; “the risk of a leadership change in Downing Street is growing. Markets are wary that a new prime minister – and, by extension, chancellor – might mean more borrowing and looser fiscal rules.
The headline UK PMI business confidence data was stronger than expected, but business confidence dipped to the lowest level since 2022 and there was a very sharp increase in cost pressures and prices.
The Bank of England remains in a very difficult position. Following the data, markets priced in a 75% chance of a rate hike by June.
ING discussed the April 30th BoE decision; “in short, we’d expect the Bank to keep its options open. Avoid doing anything that could add to rate hike bets in markets, but without trying to actively talk them down, either.
It added; “Ultimately, though, we don’t think the Bank will hike rates this year – not at the current level of energy prices. We expect rates to stay at 3.75% in April and June, and for the rest of 2026.”
Bank of America also remains cautious over the UK outlook; “Despite a much better unemployment reading, underlying weakness persists. And the unfolding energy shock will also revive fears of higher unemployment in the near-term.
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The USD/JPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.
BoJ interest rate decision
The USD to Japanese yen will be in focus this week as the BoJ releases the latest interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as it observes the impact of the ongoing war to the economy.
A report released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation continued rising in March as the war boosted energy prices. This rise will continue as there are signs that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a while.
The US has been open to talks with Iran, which the latter has resisted. Last week, the Iranians remained non-commital on talks even as President Donald Trump insisted that they would happen. At some point, he noted that JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan only for his motorcade to show up in the White House.
The same situation happened during the weekend. To save face, Trump shared that the team would not travel to Pakistan, citing the fact that Iranian leaders were divided. Iran has rejected these claims.
In addition to the headline decision, the BoJ will likely provide a guidance on what to expect in the upcoming meetings. For one, the IMF has called for the bank to hike interest rates, which analysts believe is possible. Officials will also highlight measures to boost the Japanese yen, which has crashed in the past few years.
Federal Reserve decision and key macro data
The next key catalyst for the USD/JPY will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Like the BoJ, analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting.
The bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates from Trump, sees no need to do so as inflation remains high. The most recent data showed that the headline consumer inflation jumped to 3.3% and the OECD expects it will rise to 4.3% this year.
Worse, there are signs that the US is moving towards a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. For example, an economic report expected this week will show that the economy expanded by less than two percent in the first quarter.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has moved to the psychological level at 160. It has moved comfortably above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control.
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal support and a diagonal line. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the key resistance level at 163.
No news for GBPJPY pair until this moment, confined between 214.80 support, while 215.70 level keeps forming a strong barrier against the bullish attempts, forcing it to provide sideways trading by its fluctuation near 215.60.
Note that stochastic approach 80 level might help it to provide extra positive momentum to surpass the current barrier, reinforcing the chances of reaching new bullish stations that might begin at 216.40 and 216.90, while the failure of the breach will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, to press on the previously mentioned support and surpassing it will make the initial main target at 214.10 level in the bearish trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.80 and 215.70
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers in the vicinity of the 1.3500 psychological mark and climbs to over a one-week top during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.3500s, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further.
The US Dollar (USD) turns lower in reaction to the optimism led by reports that Iran gave the US a new proposal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war. Furthermore, sliding Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which exerts additional pressure on the USD and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Apart from this, bets for further policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE) this year underpin the British Pound (GBP) and validate the positive outlook for the currency pair.
The recent corrective pullback from the 1.3600 neighborhood, or a two-month peak, stalled ahead of a confluence comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March downfall. The subsequent move up beyond the 50% retracement level reaffirms the constructive outlook. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 59 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, hinting that buyers still retain control even as the advance begins to slow.
Initial resistance is seen at a structural standpoint near the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3608, which guards a deeper extension toward the recent swing highs. On the downside, the 50.0% retracement at 1.3523 is the first line of support, followed by the 38.2% level at 1.3437 and then the 23.6% retracement at 1.3332, with the 1.3161 area acting as a more distant structural floor if the broader pullback extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.08%
-0.10%
-0.11%
-0.05%
-0.33%
-0.19%
-0.05%
EUR
0.08%
-0.01%
-0.04%
0.03%
-0.22%
-0.09%
0.03%
GBP
0.10%
0.00%
-0.02%
0.04%
-0.24%
-0.12%
0.04%
JPY
0.11%
0.04%
0.02%
0.08%
-0.22%
-0.10%
0.10%
CAD
0.05%
-0.03%
-0.04%
-0.08%
-0.28%
-0.16%
0.00%
AUD
0.33%
0.22%
0.24%
0.22%
0.28%
0.14%
0.28%
NZD
0.19%
0.09%
0.12%
0.10%
0.16%
-0.14%
0.15%
CHF
0.05%
-0.03%
-0.04%
-0.10%
-0.00%
-0.28%
-0.15%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USDJPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.
BoJ interest rate decision
The USD to Japanese yen will be in focus this week as the BoJ releases the latest interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as it observes the impact of the ongoing war to the economy.
A report released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation continued rising in March as the war boosted energy prices. This rise will continue as there are signs that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a while.
The US has been open to talks with Iran, which the latter has resisted. Last week, the Iranians remained non-commital on talks even as President Donald Trump insisted that they would happen. At some point, he noted that JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan only for his motorcade to show up in the White House.
The same situation happened during the weekend. To save face, Trump shared that the team would not travel to Pakistan, citing the fact that Iranian leaders were divided. Iran has rejected these claims.
In addition to the headline decision, the BoJ will likely provide a guidance on what to expect in the upcoming meetings. For one, the IMF has called for the bank to hike interest rates, which analysts believe is possible. Officials will also highlight measures to boost the Japanese yen, which has crashed in the past few years.
Federal Reserve decision and key macro data
The next key catalyst for the USDJPY will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Like the BoJ, analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting.
The bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates from Trump, sees no need to do so as inflation remains high. The most recent data showed that the headline consumer inflation jumped to 3.3% and the OECD expects it will rise to 4.3% this year.
Worse, there are signs that the US is moving towards a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. For example, an economic report expected this week will show that the economy expanded by less than two percent in the first quarter.
The weekly chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has moved to the psychological level at 160. It has moved comfortably above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control.
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal support and a diagonal line. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the key resistance level at 163.
The backdrop in EUR/USD is likely to be determined at least partially by the time frame with which the trader or analyst is looking. From a fundamental basis, there’s been periods where the backdrop has appeared to be divorced from the price action such as the sliding sell-off in March even as the European Central Bank was widely considered to be on the way to rate hikes. But, realistically, it was the confusion around oil prices and the implications around that which was likely driving the waves, and as we go into next week, in which we’ll get both European CPI data and a European Central Bank rate decision, EUR/USD can be justified in either direction depending on the vantage point that it’s being looked at.
From the weekly chart, we have price re-testing a massive area of importance, the same 76.4-78.6% expanse from the 2021-2022 major move, a zone that’s been in-play for more than nine months now as the massive rally of 2025 met it’s match at that zone.
From the below chart, it looks like a stall at a lower-high following a lower-low, thereby keeping the door open for sellers to make a push until or unless resistance can be tested through.
EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
EUR/USD Daily
From the daily, and this is what I had looked at in the USD article on Friday, this is simpler to justify on the long side given the recent higher-high and the pullback that, so far, has held support around the 76.4% retracement of the move looked at above. There’s even scope for deeper support, to around 1.1628-1.1655, which can keep the door open for bullish continuation scenarios.
Key resistance at this point is the same 1.1835 level that held the highs right around when the USD was probing for support around the 97.94 Fibonacci level.
From the four-hour chart, we can see that the bounce is still young and it’s the 1.1748-1.1766 zone that stands out as an area that bulls can stake their claim. Buyers would need to press above that to make a more convincing move, which would then open the door for a re-test of resistance at 1.1835, and perhaps more beyond that level.
For next week, I’m considering EUR/USD as one of the more attractive backdrops for USD-weakness and the daily chart above is a big reason why.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
EUR/JPY
Next week is big for the Yen with the Bank of Japan rate meeting earlier in the week, and as we came into last week, the EUR/JPY pair was in the midst of a massive breakout.
For the past two weeks, however, that stunning strength has turned into indecision following the bull pennant breakout.
EUR/JPY Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
EUR/JPY Daily
As I looked at in the US Dollar article earlier, I think the USD/JPY pair is the main push point for FX markets next week with the Bank of Japan rate decision and the prospect of rate hikes from the BoJ in the coming months. If Ueda sounds hawkish and frightens carry traders, we can see fast unwind. If he’s too soft and doesn’t seem ready to hike, we could see the 160.00 level tested which could spur a round of Yen-weakness elsewhere.
Looking at EUR/JPY in a vacuum, and it looks like there could be a deeper pullback as horizontal support and lower-highs makes for a short-term descending triangle formation. That wouldn’t necessarily have to turn into a full-fledged reversal, as it may simply be a pullback in the broader bullish trend that opens the door for re-test of the 185.00 level.
EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
— written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
