For gold bulls, current price action on the daily chart is nothing short of picture-perfect.

Blasting through multiple key levels throughout 2025, most significantly the $3,000 mark first achieved in early March, gold pricing currently trades in excess of $3,800 per troy ounce for the first time in history, growing ever closer to $4,000.

Having found a base of around $3,250, forming a slight upwards trending channel, price action in early September would break this period of consolidation and mark the start of the current rally, which, at least so far, shows little sign of exhaustion.

With that said, we are currently in ‘overbought’ territory according to the RSI and trade some distance from the trendline, suggesting that short-term retracements are possible if the uptrend wishes to continue.

As ever, data suggesting the Federal Reserve outlook is to become more dovish will likely support metal pricing further, with the opposite being true if the Fed is seen to become more hawkish ahead of their October decision.

In line with Fibonacci theory, here are some key levels to watch:

Bank of America (BofA) raised its forecasts for 2026 and 2027 copper prices amid supply concerns and noted that demand is rebounding in Europe and set to stabilise in China .

The bank raised its copper price outlook for next year to $11,313 per ton from $10,188 and for 2027 to $13,500 per ton from $12,000.

Last week, Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia and said it is expecting consolidated sales to be lower for copper in the third quarter. Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine after Escondida in Chile.

“The issues at Freeport’s Grasberg mine alone could increase next year’s deficit by 270,000 tons,” said BofA in a note dated Sunday. It added that this year’s mine supply is likely to fall short of nearly every forecast made over the past 15 years.

BofA said its real-time demand tracker shows European demand bottoming out, signalling gradual economic improvement, while demand in top consumer China is expected to stabilise.

Data showed that China’s industrial profits returned to growth in August even as businesses braced for a broader economic slowdown.

The note also flagged that London Metal Exchange warehouses have been running dry for some time, with the shortage worsening as spare tonnages were diverted to the U.S. ahead of expected trade restrictions that ultimately didn’t materialise.

“The tonnages in the U.S. are held under warehouse financing deals, so will in all likelihood only become available, when the market pays up. All this also raises the risk of periodic short squeezes on LME, which could push nearby prices violently higher,” it added.

In July, the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring but details of the levy fell short of the sweeping restrictions expected and left out copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes.

Benchmark three-month copper HG1! on the LME added 2.3% to $10,411 a metric ton as of 14:21 GMT.

• Gold kicks off the US Nonfarm Payrolls week with a bang, printing fresh record highs.   
• US Dollar loses further ground on US government shutdown fears, Fed easing prospects.   
• Technically, Gold appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade amid extreme overbought conditions.

Gold has resumed its record-setting rally, setting off a new week with a bang, as buyers challenge the $3,800 hurdle for the first time ever.

Gold capitalizes on US government shutdown fears

Investors scurry for safety in the traditional store of value, Gold, as fears over a US government shutdown, heading into the first day of the government’s 2026 fiscal year on October 1, intensify, weighing on the demand for the US Dollar (USD).

Traders also remain wary about whether the September US labor market report will be published if the US government shuts down.

Meanwhile, markets pay little attention to an Axios report, citing that US President Donald Trump and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu near a Gaza peace agreement, although Hamas approval seems pending. The report is not yet confirmed by official sources.

Last week, a slew of encouraging US data releases showed the economic resilience, pushing back against expectations of two US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts this year.

Markets are now pricing in about 40 basis points (bps) worth of easing by December, according to Refinitiv’s USD interest rate probabilities.

Attention now turns to figures on Job Openings, private payrolls, the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for further clues on the health of the US economy, which will help reprice markets’ expectations of future Fed rate cuts, in turn, influencing the USD-denominated and non-interest-bearing Gold.

In the meantime, trade and geopolitical headlines will likely drive the Gold price action alongside speeches from Fed officials.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, buyers appear defiant even as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves deeper within the extreme overbought region.

The leading indicator currently trades at 77, pointing north at the start of the week.

Buyers need acceptance above the $3,800 psychological level on a daily closing basis to provide extra legs to the revival of the record rally.

The next topside hurdle is located at the $3,850 barrier.

A sustained and decisive break above the latter could fuel a fresh advance toward the $3,880 region.

On the flip side, initial support is seen at the intraday low of $3,756, below which the September 24 low at $3,718 could offer some comfort to buyers.

Further down, the $3,650 psychological barrier would act as a tough nut to crack for sellers.

The EURJPY pair didn’t succeed in reaching the extra positive stations, affected by its neediness to the positive momentum, which forces it to settle below the barrier at 175.20, forming correctional waves by its stability near 174.65.

We expect providing mixed trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, but it didn’t affect the main bullish trend, due to the stability of the trading within the bullish channel levels, by forming 173.45 level as an important extra support, therefore, we recommend waiting for breaching the barrier, to open the way for reaching extra positive stations, that are located near 176.00 reaching 176.95.

The expected trading range for today is between 174.20 and 175.20

Trend forecast: Sideways 

Copper price began today’s trading with positive action, attempting to renew the pressure on the barrier at $4.7500, to find an exit for resuming the main bullish attack, to expect targeting $4.9500 level reaching the main target at $5.3100.

Note that the continuation of forming extra support by the moving average 55 stability near $4.3700, besides stochastic attempt to provide bullish momentum, these factors support the bullish suggestion, to keep waiting for achieving the suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is $4.5500 and $4.9500

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price drifts higher in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The US PCE price index rose 2.7% YoY in August, in line with expectations. 
• Traders await the Fedspeak later on Monday for fresh impetus. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside above $3,750 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher after the US inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue with interest rate cuts later this year. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty could boost demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. 

Traders will keep an eye on the Fedspeak later on Monday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are set to speak. Any hawkish comments from Fed officials might lift the US Dollar (USD) and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold edges higher as US PCE data keeps Fed rate cut bets alive

• US inflation, as measured by the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 2.7% year-on-year in August from 2.6% in July, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. This figure came in line with the market consensus. 
• The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, matching the increase in July and analysts’ estimates. 
• On a monthly basis, the PCE and the core PCE increased 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. 
• “Monthly PCE data is in line, though personal income and spending were a tenth above expectations. Nothing from this data will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut at the October meeting,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.
• Markets are now pricing in nearly an 88% odds of a Fed rate cut in October and a 65% possibility of another reduction in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Gold’s positive view remains in place, but overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls

Gold price trades in positive territory on the day. The bullish tone of the precious metal remains intact in the longer term, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 75.90, indicating the overbought RSI condition. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term Gold upleg. 

The crucial resistance level for XAU/USD is seen in the $3,800-$3,810 zone, representing the psychological level and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading above this level could take the yellow metal to $3,850. 

On the downside, the initial support level for Gold is located at $3,722, the low of September 25. Red candlesticks closing below the mentioned level could expose $3,632, the low of September 19. 

XAU/USD Rally Extends as Gold Hits $3,760 and Heads Toward $3,800 Resistance

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its historic 2025 surge, climbing 43% year-to-date and trading near $3,760 per ounce, putting bullion on track for its strongest year since 1979. Futures briefly tested $3,791.26, just shy of a fresh record, while intraday support remains firm at $3,709.61. Momentum has been relentless, with inflows into global ETFs surpassing $10.5 billion in September alone, and cumulative allocations exceeding $50 billion year-to-date. On a structural level, central bank demand has created a durable price floor, with official sector buying estimated at 1,000 metric tons in 2025, following a record 1,086 tons in 2024.

Central Banks Reinforce Gold’s Bullish Structure With Relentless Accumulation

Global monetary authorities are reshaping the gold market. China has now expanded reserves for the 10th consecutive month, bringing holdings to nearly 74 million ounces, while Russia, India, and Turkey remain consistent buyers. Central banks account for 25% of annual demand, a level unseen in modern history, transforming gold from a tactical hedge into a strategic reserve asset. This “de-dollarization” trend reflects a shift away from U.S. Treasuries, with countries seeking sanction-resistant stores of value. Strategically, this behavior cements $3,600–$3,700 as a structural floor, as central banks repeatedly intervene during corrections.

Fed Easing Bets Keep XAU/USD Anchored Above $3,700 Despite Dollar Strength

The Fed’s September 25 bps rate cut provided a fresh impulse to bullion. According to CME FedWatch, traders price in an 88% probability of another cut in October and 65% odds in December. Even with August core PCE inflation at 2.9% year-over-year and GDP growth at 3.8%, investors are betting on further easing. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains resilient at 98.18, but real yields are sliding, with the 10-year Treasury holding at 4.18% and real yields at 1.80%. This macro backdrop bolsters gold, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines.

ETF Inflows and Retail Demand Fuel Gold’s Momentum Beyond Institutional Buying

Alongside central bank support, investment flows have reached historic levels. Global ETF holdings climbed above 3,615 tons this year, while silver ETFs added 95 million ounces in H1 2025. Retail appetite is just as aggressive: India’s domestic gold price surged to a record ₹110,666 per 10g (approx. $3,800/oz), while imports jumped 37% in August to $5.4 billion. Local jewelers report a drying scrap supply as households refuse to sell, anticipating higher prices. In the U.S., Costco’s gold bars sell out in hours, and physical coin demand remains elevated. These signals reflect a broad, sticky bid across investor segments.

Geopolitical Risks Amplify Bullion’s Safe-Haven Premium

Gold’s advance is further reinforced by geopolitics. The Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt energy markets, while fresh U.S. tariffs — including 100% on pharmaceuticals and 40% on furniture imports — add to uncertainty. China’s green energy commitments are also reshaping demand: silver surged 14% YTD, reaching $46 per ounce, as solar manufacturing intensified. Platinum gained 50% in 2025, climbing above $1,568, its highest in 12 years, while palladium rose above $1,280. Investors are now treating bullion and its peers as systemic hedges, with analysts noting that each new conflict or tariff shock sends fresh inflows into gold.

Technical Signals Point to $3,879 Breakout or $3,700 Retest

From a charting perspective, gold remains in a strong bullish channel. A breakout above $3,791.26 would open the path to $3,879.64, while failure to hold $3,709.61 support risks a pullback toward $3,627.96. Momentum oscillators remain stretched: RSI sits near 78, signaling overbought conditions, but price action has repeatedly consolidated in bullish flags rather than topping patterns. The 200-day SMA at $3,648 reinforces a rising long-term floor, while sentiment remains far from euphoric, suggesting further upside before speculative exhaustion sets in.

Analyst Targets Cluster Around $3,800–$4,000 With Longer-Term $5,000+ Potential

Wall Street remains broadly bullish. Goldman Sachs targets $3,700 for 2025 year-end and $4,000+ in 2026, while OCBC Bank expects $3,900 by year-end. RBC strategist Nicholas Frappell and Metals Focus’s Philip Newman both highlight $3,800 as a base case with upside toward $4,000 in 2026. Longer-dated calls stretch further: forecasts for 2029–2030 range from $5,000 to $7,000 per ounce, premised on sustained central bank buying, weaker fiat credibility, and geopolitical fragmentation.

Investment Verdict: XAU/USD Remains a Strong Buy Into Year-End

The convergence of record central bank buying, ETF inflows, persistent inflation above 2.5%, and structural supply stagnation at ~4,000 tons annually creates a rare alignment for gold. With spot gold at $3,760 and technicals pointing toward $3,879–$4,000, the market retains strong bullish momentum. Risks of corrective dips remain, but structural demand support from sovereigns and institutions suggests these dips will be shallow. Based on current evidence, gold (XAU/USD) is firmly a Buy, with year-end targets clustered between $3,850–$3,950, and potential overshoots above $4,000 if U.S. jobs data and Fed cuts align in October–December.

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Gold (XAU/USD) Pushes Toward $3,791 as Fed Bets and Weak Imports Drive Divergence

Gold prices continued their advance this week with spot bullion settling at $3,778.62 per ounce, up nearly 0.8% on Friday and closing just shy of the record intraday high of $3,791.26 earlier in the week. December gold futures also climbed 1% to $3,809, extending weekly gains of 2.1%. The strength came as the U.S. PCE index rose 2.7% year-over-year in August, in line with expectations, cementing investor conviction that the Federal Reserve will proceed with at least one rate cut before year-end. The CME FedWatch tool now implies an 88% probability of a cut in October and 65% odds of a second in December, keeping bullion well bid against a backdrop of steady inflation and moderate income growth.

Fed Outlook and Treasury Yields Underpin Gold’s Strength

The latest macro data left the Fed with optionality but not urgency. Core PCE increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% annually, providing enough justification for easing while confirming inflation’s stickiness above target. Bond markets stayed muted, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.16% and the 30-year at 4.74%, showing that fixed income investors are awaiting labor market confirmation. As long as yields remain capped and rate cuts stay in play, the environment remains supportive for gold, allowing XAU/USD to defend elevated levels near $3,770 despite a stronger U.S. dollar earlier in the week.

China’s Waning Physical Demand Signals Strain at Record Prices

While ETF inflows remain strong, physical buying has weakened. China’s gold imports dropped 34% in August compared to the prior month, while Hong Kong’s net imports collapsed 39% to just 27 tons. Dealers in Shanghai and Hong Kong are now offering discounts ranging from $21 to $36 per ounce, the steepest since May 2020, as local buyers balk at near-$3,800 pricing. This softening in Asian demand is creating a stark divergence between Western financial flows into ETFs and real-world jewelry and retail consumption in Asia, historically the backbone of the gold market. If prices remain pinned near all-time highs, the risk of further erosion in physical demand looms.

Technical Landscape: Bulls Eye Breakout, Bears Watch $3,730

On the technical front, gold remains trapped in a narrow band between support and record resistance. Spot XAU/USD has tested $3,791.26 multiple times without a confirmed breakout. A sustained push above that level opens the door toward $3,879.64, the next Fibonacci extension, and potentially $3,915. Conversely, immediate downside support sits at $3,730, with a deeper safety net near $3,712 tied to the 50% retracement of the September leg higher. A close below $3,712 risks a correction toward $3,693, unwinding nearly two weeks of bullish momentum. The RSI at 57 signals neutral positioning, while candlestick rejection at highs indicates fading conviction from momentum traders.

Macro Growth Trends and ETF Flows Reinforce Strategic Appeal

Despite softness in Asia, Western demand remains resilient. Global ETFs linked to gold continue to see inflows, positioning bullion as both a hedge against dollar volatility and a store of value amid tariff uncertainty. Revised U.S. GDP growth at 3.8% annualized in Q2 and the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 tracker at 3.9% show that economic expansion is holding, complicating the Fed’s rate path. Still, investors have poured into gold as a counterweight to equities trading at stretched 22.5x forward earnings, above both the five- and ten-year averages. With central banks maintaining net purchases and M2 money supply growth re-accelerating to 6% globally, gold retains structural support from liquidity-driven flows.

Verdict: XAU/USD Short-Term Neutral, Long-Term Bullish

The immediate battle sits between $3,730 and $3,791. Holding above $3,730 keeps gold in a consolidation phase with breakout potential, while a decisive push through $3,791 sets up acceleration to $3,879 and beyond. The physical demand drop in China is a near-term drag, but institutional ETF inflows and dovish Fed expectations outweigh retail softness. For now, XAU/USD is a Hold in the short-term range, but with structural liquidity, Fed easing, and central bank buying as backstops, the long-term outlook remains bullish, targeting $3,900+ into 2026.

That’s TradingNEWS

The EURJPY pair failed to resume the bullish attack, due to its stability below %1.809 Fibonacci extension level, forming an extra barrier at 175.20, providing sideways trading since yesterday by its stability near 174.85.

Reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid, due to the stability within the bullish channel’s levels besides the continuation of forming an initial support at 173.40 level, which makes us wait for breaching the current barrier to ease the mission of recording extra gains that might begin at 176.00 and 176.95.

The expected trading range for today is between 174.20 and 175.20

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach