• Gold prices decline amid lower demand for safe-haven assets.
• Ebbing concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East have brought risk appetite back to the market.
• XAU/USD maintains its bullish trend intact while above $3,400.

Gold (XAU/USD) is correcting lower after rejection at the $3,440 resistance area on Friday. The pair maintains the upside structure in place, but easing fears that the Iran-Israel conflict might escalate into a regional war have undermined demand for safe havens, like Gold, in favour of riskier-perceived assets.

The war between Israel and Iran entered its fourth day with no signs of an end in sight. The worst fears, however, have not crystallized, the conflict remains limited, and US interests have not been targeted. This led to a risk rally on Monday, retracing most of Friday’s moves, and pushing Gold prices lower.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD focus has shifted to the $3,400 support

The pair is on a corrective reversal from a key resistance level at $3,440, where the top of the ascending wedge channel from mid-May lows meets the May 6 high. This is a potentially bearish figure, but technical indicators are still in positive territory.
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The precious metal is now in a bearish correction from the mentioned $3,440, aiming to a key support level at $3,400 (June 5 high).  A bearish continuation below here would bring the wedge bottom into focus, now at $3,350 and June 11 lows at $3,340.

On the upside, a confirmation above $3,440 would clear the path towards the all-time high at $3,500.

Platinum price activated the bearish correctional track in Friday’s trading after hitting the barrier at $1305.00, to gather some of the gains by reaching $1215.00 achieving the suggested initial target.

 

The continuation of the main indicators contradiction makes us keep preferring the correctional track, which might target $1185.00 and $1162.00 level, while renewing the bullish attempts requires providing positive closes above $1275.00 level, to increase the chances for reaching new bullish stations.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1185.00 and $1260.00

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

 

Natural gas prices were affected by the technical circumstances, forming a bullish rally and surpassing the moving average 55 at $3.600, achieving some gains by reaching 43.750 level.

 

Reminding you that regaining the bullish scenario requires forming a strong bullish rally, to breach the resistance at $3.900, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that might begin at $4.050 and $4.200, while the price return to fluctuate below $3.600 will cancel the positive chances, which forces it to renew the bearish attempts by reaching $3.450 initially.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $3.600 and $3.900

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver price loses ground to near $36.20 in Monday’s Asian session. 
• The US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index improved in June.
• Geopolitical risks might help limit Silver’s losses. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to around $36.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The recovery in the Greenback weighs on the USD-denominated commodity price. However, the potential downside seems limited amid the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

The upbeat US economic data released on Friday could provide some support to the US Dollar (USD). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved for the first time in six months, with the index rising to 60.5 in June from 52.2 in the previous reading. This reading came in above the market estimations of 53.5.

On the other hand, markets fear the Israel-Iran conflict could spill over into regional conflict, which boosts safe-haven assets like Silver.  Israel started attacks on Iran on Friday, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories and killing military leaders. Semi-official Iranian media outlet Mehr News reported on Sunday that the fourth phase of Iran’s operation against Israel has begun. Iranian officials underscored that they would “respond firmly to any adventurism” from Israel.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting on Wednesday will be closely watched. The Fed is anticipated to keep interest rates steady at its June meeting. However, futures markets expect two rate cuts by year-end, possibly starting in September, bolstered by tame inflation data last week. 

• Gold price clinches fresh two-month highs above $3,450, then retreats.
• US Dollar stays supported amid haven demand due to deepening Israel-Iran row.
• The path of least resistance appears to the upside for Gold price ahead of Fed.

Gold price has briefly pulled back from fresh two-month highs reached just above $3,450 early Monday. All eyes remain on the deepening Israel and Iran conflict and trade headlines for fresh trading impetus.

Gold price takes a brief hall en-route to $3,500

The US Dollar (USD) seems to have regained its lost footing in Asian trading on Monday, starting a new week on the front across its major currency rivals amid sagging investors’ confidence, leading to the minor pullback in Gold price.

Intensifying Iranian missiles attacks on Israel over the weekend, which continues well into early Monday, remains a drag on risk sentiment even as markets try to take into their stride and divert their attention to the upcoming central banks’ policy announcements this week.

On Sunday, Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on Sunday, raising concerns of a broader regional conflict, which could out trade under risks through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel’s air force attacked surface-to-surface missile sites in central Iran.

Iran told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire with the US while it is under Israeli attack.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Reuters US President Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, citing two US officials.

Gold buyers also face exhaustion after rising as much as 4% in the previous week as a sense of caution seeps in ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy verdict due later on Wednesday.

Markets continue to price in the first interest rate of this year to come in September, still expecting two 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by year-end.

Dovish Fed expectations continue to lend support to bright metal alongside the Middle East geopolitical crisis, with markets awaiting fresh impetus for the next leg higher.

Monday’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production data from China failed to lift Gold price as the focus now remain on US Retail Sales and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision on Tuesday.

The BoJ policy announcements could fuel the USD/JPY pair-driven volatility in the Greenback, eventually impacting the USD-denominated Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price has stalled its recent uptrend, having failed to close the week above the critical resistance near $3,440.

However, the bullish potential remains in place as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays comfortably above the midline, currently near 62.50.

The retreat from two-month highs of could meet initial demand at $3,400, below which the sellers could challenge the previous strong resistance now support at $3,377, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally.

The next downside cushion will be aligned at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,336 if the $3,350 psychological barrier gives way.

On the upside, acceptance above the aforesaid static resistance at $3,440 is critical to resuming the advance toward the record highs of $3,500.

The two-month highs of $3,453 could test bearish commitments buyers regain poise.

• Gold price gains momentum to around $3,445 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the gold price. 
• Traders now see an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to near $3,445 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal rises to over a one-month high due to escalating Middle East tensions and rising bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. 

Investors ignored the upbeat US economic data released on Friday. Data released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June versus 52.2 prior. This reading came in above the market consensus of 53.5. 

Renewed geopolitical concerns in the Middle East following an Israeli attack on Iran continue to underpin the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Iranian officials underscored that they would “respond firmly to any adventurism” from Israel.

“Israel knocking out Iranian targets is causing a little bit of geopolitical scare in the market. Prices will stay elevated in anticipation of what is to come, the retaliation by Iran,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

The Fed is expected to leave its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its June meeting on Wednesday. However, traders now expect a quarter-percentage-point rate cut by September. Before last week’s US inflation data, traders had expected the Fed to wait until December to deliver a second rate cut. Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut lift interest-bearing assets like Gold. 

• WTI Oil surges above $72 as Israel-Iran tensions trigger a breakout.
• Gains for June are near 20%, pushing prices above key Fibonacci levels from longer-term moves.
• The 12-month moving average provides additional support below $70.

WTI crude oil is surging amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with Israel’s recent strikes on Iran fueling a rally that pushed prices above the $74.00 handle on Friday. At the time of writing, WTI is trading just below $72.00 after Iran responded with its own missile barrage, marking a near 20% gain for June and reversing much of the weakness observed earlier this year.

Despite broad-based pressure in the first half of 2025, the recent price surge has lifted WTI back above several key technical levels, with bullish momentum building across multiple timeframes.

WTI Oil long-term setup

From a longer-term perspective, WTI has reclaimed the 12-month Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently sitting at $69.46. This level now serves as dynamic support. Above, resistance is forming at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2022 high to the April 2025 low, located at $71.71.

WTI Oil Monthly Chart

WTI Oil medium-term setup

On the weekly chart, WTI broke above the 12-week SMA at $63.29 following the Iran-Israel escalation, marking a pivotal shift in sentiment. This surge has brought prices up to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline at $74.11. The 12-week SMA continues to offer support near $63.31, underlining a strong base for bulls.

WTI Oil Weekly Chart

WTI Oil short-term setup

Zooming into the daily chart, Friday’s bullish momentum drove a decisive move above both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, strengthening the case for further upside. Technical confluence with long-term Fibonacci levels adds credibility to the breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe currently sits at 76, signaling overbought conditions. However, with the geopolitical backdrop intensifying, fundamental support may ultimately prevail over short-term exhaustion.

WTI Oil Daily Chart

Looking ahead: What’s next for Oil?

If WTI breaks and holds above $74.11 early next week, momentum could carry it toward $76.00 and eventually $78.00. Conversely, failure to maintain levels above $71.71 may trigger a retracement, especially if geopolitical tensions ease or if market focus returns to demand-side concerns.

• XAG/USD bounces off a five-day low and forms a bullish hammer as USD slides to 3-year trough
• Bullish hammer pattern suggests renewed upside momentum toward $36.88 and $37.49, a 13-year high.
• RSI remains steady despite overbought conditions, signaling buyers are still in control.
• Key support lies at $36.00 and $35.40; a break below would open the door to $35.00 and lower.

Silver price bounced off five-day lows of $35.46 and is climbing past the $36.00 mark on Thursday as the Greenback gets battered, falling to nearly three-year lows. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $36.30, registering modest gains of 0.25% on Thursday, late in the North American session.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

As Thursday’s session finishes, Silver’s uptrend appears likely to continue, with a single candlestick pattern –known as a ‘hammer’– forming in the chart. This suggests that XAG/USD could re-test the June 9 swing high at $36.88 before buyers set their sights on higher prices.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) exited from overbought territory but, instead of aiming lower, remains flat. Therefore, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside.

The first key resistance is the year-to-date (YTD) high, followed by the $37.00 figure. Once cleared, the next stop would be $37.49, a 13-year high set on February 29.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $36.00, the first support level would be $35.40, a high from October 2012 that has since become a support level. Once surpassed, the next stop is $35.00, followed by the $34.00 and $33.00 figures,

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily 

Oil prices soar after Israel strikes Iran, raising fears of wider Middle East conflict- Global oil prices have surged sharply after Israel launched a military strike on Iran, pushing Brent crude up by more than 10% in early trading—its biggest one-day jump in months. The sudden escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran has left energy markets on edge, raising fresh concerns over potential disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East.

The latest developments come as Israel reportedly targeted Iran’s nuclear sites and senior military commanders, prompting retaliatory drone attacks from Iran. According to Israel’s military, over 100 drones were launched by Iran in response. The rising instability has rattled global markets, increased investor anxiety, and sent gold prices to their highest level in nearly two months, signaling a classic flight to safety.

Oil Price Surge – June 13, 2025

• Brent crude rose by $5.25, or 7.6%, to $74.61 per barrel as of 12:15 GMT, reaching an intraday high of $78.50, the highest level since January 27, 2025.
• WTI (West Texas Intermediate) climbed $5.57, or 8.2%, to $73.61, hitting a peak of $77.62, the highest since January 21, 2025.
• These were the largest intraday gains for both Brent and WTI since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Market Reaction & Economic Impact

• Global equities dropped, with U.S. futures down between 1.5% to 1.8%.
• Investors moved funds to safe havens, boosting gold, U.S. Treasuries, the Swiss franc, and the U.S. dollar.
• War-risk insurance premiums for tankers surged by over 300%, increasing shipping costs.
• The global oil market’s key concern was whether tensions would disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route through which 18–20 million barrels per day (or about 20% of global oil consumption) pass.

Analyst Insights

• Goldman Sachs: Factored in a geopolitical risk premium in its summer 2025 oil forecast but assumed no actual disruption in Middle East oil supply.
• Rystad Energy: Predicted the oil rally would be short-lived, with a low probability of all-out war. Analysts noted that nearly all Iranian oil exports go to China, which could be most affected.
• J.P. Morgan: Warned that if escalation continues, oil could spike to $120 per barrel.
• Barclays and ING: Estimated that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices beyond $100 per barrel.
• Analysts also pointed to OPEC+ spare capacity as a stabilizing factor if supply gets tight.

Why are global oil prices rising so fast after the Israel-Iran conflict?

The benchmark Brent crude price surged over 10% shortly after Israel confirmed the attack, climbing to levels not seen since January. As European markets opened, prices cooled slightly but still held a 5% gain compared to Thursday, trading around $72.80 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rose, trading at $73.20.

Although prices remain well below the $100-plus highs seen during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, traders are now pricing in potential threats to vital supply routes and oil facilities across the region. The Middle East is home to a significant share of global oil production, and any conflict that puts that at risk sends shockwaves through the market.

Could the Israel-Iran crisis disrupt global oil supply chains?

Yes, energy analysts are warning that this conflict, if it escalates, could disrupt oil flows—especially if Iran targets infrastructure or shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is one of the most critical chokepoints for global energy supplies, with nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil passing through it daily. According to Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, “What we see now is a very initial risk-on reaction. But over the next day or two, the market will need to factor in where this could escalate to.” Capital Economics analysts say if Iranian production or export facilities are hit, Brent crude could rise to $80–$100 per barrel, depending on the scale of the disruption. However, they also suggest that higher prices could trigger increased output from other oil-producing nations, which might limit the long-term impact.

How are investors and markets reacting to the oil price shock?

The rising oil prices triggered widespread uncertainty across financial markets. Stock markets across Asia and Europe declined, with Japan’s Nikkei closing down 0.9% and the UK’s FTSE 100 index falling 0.4% by mid-morning.

At the same time, “safe-haven assets” like gold and the Swiss franc gained sharply. The gold price jumped 1.2% to hit $3,423.30 an ounce, marking its highest level in nearly two months.

These moves reflect growing investor concern that this latest round of violence could spiral into a wider regional conflict, with unpredictable effects on global inflation and energy supply.

Will petrol prices go up too? What could this mean for consumers?

It’s still unclear whether this spike in crude prices will immediately impact prices at the pump. According to Rod Dennis from the UK’s RAC motoring group, it’s “too soon” to say.

He added that “there are two key factors at play: whether higher wholesale fuel prices are sustained over the coming days and, crucially, the sort of margin retailers decide to take.”

If the conflict continues or worsens, consumers could feel the pinch in the form of higher petrol and diesel prices, especially if disruptions reach the Strait of Hormuz. Rising fuel costs also feed into higher transportation and food prices, which could affect inflation worldwide.

How serious is the risk of a broader Middle East war?

Analysts are warning that the current situation could either calm quickly—or spiral into a broader war. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights told the BBC, “It’s an explosive situation, albeit one that could be defused quickly, as we saw in April and October last year.”

However, she also warned, “It could also spiral out into a bigger war that disrupts Mideast oil supply.”

If Iran’s oil infrastructure or shipping routes come under serious threat, the global energy market could face a major crisis. With multiple countries relying heavily on oil shipped from the Gulf, any major conflict could send shockwaves far beyond the region.

What happens next in the global oil markets?

Oil traders and analysts will now be closely watching political and military developments. Key questions include whether Iran escalates its response, if other regional powers become involved, and how the U.S. and allies react. At the same time, OPEC and major producers may be forced to consider output changes to stabilize markets.

As the situation unfolds, the global economy faces rising uncertainty—not just over oil, but over inflation, market stability, and energy security.

FAQs:

Q1: Why did global oil prices surge after Israel’s strike on Iran?
Oil prices jumped due to fears that the Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt key Middle East oil supplies.

Q2: Could the Strait of Hormuz be affected by this conflict?
Yes, if tensions rise, Iran might block or disrupt oil flow through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Failed Weekly Breakdown

Weekly support from last week was at $3.50 and it was broken on Wednesday. However, it was not confirmed with a daily close below that price level. Therefore, a weekly closing price above that level could be the sign of a false breakdown. Currently, today’s closing price will be above that price level and at a four-day closing high, another sign of strength.

Key Near-term Support at $3.44

Nonetheless, key support is at a minor higher swing low of $3.44, while this week’s low was at $3.45. If the slightly lower $3.44 level fails, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.38 is the next lower target where support may be seen. Then, a little lower is the 200-Day MA, now at $3.32.

Watching for Breakout Above $3.62

A decisive breakout above today’s high of $3.62 could be the next sign of strength that has the potential to lead to higher prices. But the four-day high of $3.66 would need to be exceeded before there are clearer signs of a bottom. A recovery of the $3.66 level would establish a slightly higher swing low from this week. Solid potential resistance lies above and up to the $3.84 swing high from May. If natural gas can get above the May swing high, it has a chance to complete a rising ABCD pattern at $4.08. That price level is joined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.12.

Above 200-Day MA is Bullish

Given the two recent bounces off the area around the 200-Day MA since April, the uptrend begun from the April swing low is expected to continue. That could change if there is a decisive decline below the 200-Day line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.