Trump Tariff Delay Takes Pressure Off—For Now

Trump’s decision to extend the deadline for 50% tariffs on EU goods to July 9 briefly reduced geopolitical tension. Over the weekend, the U.S. President said he agreed to an extension after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, calling it a “privilege” to accommodate ongoing trade talks. This move countered last week’s aggressive rhetoric, when Trump threatened a “straight 50% tariff” and floated a 25% levy on Apple iPhones made outside the U.S.

Dollar Slips, While Gold Consolidates Above Key Levels

Despite Monday’s softness, gold remains well bid above key support at $3,166.46 and $3,018.52. Last week, gold posted its strongest weekly performance in six weeks, rising 4.8% to $3,358.13. A drop in the U.S. dollar index—down 1.5% for the week—reflected intensifying concerns about the U.S. fiscal position. Traders continue to rotate out of dollar-denominated assets, with net short positions swelling to $17.3 billion.

U.S. Fiscal Stress Fuels Demand for Safe-Haven Assets

Market anxiety over ballooning U.S. deficits intensified after Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign credit and the House passed Trump’s tax-heavy spending bill. The CBO projects this could swell the deficit by nearly $4 trillion. Long-end yields surged, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.14%, raising fears of debt monetization and inflation. As a result, gold gained favor over traditional U.S. assets.

China Gold Imports Surge as Global Buying Picks Up

China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April, reaching the highest levels since March. This uptick in physical demand underscores global investor interest in gold as a hedge against both policy risk and currency depreciation.

Gold Prices Forecast: Still Bullish Above $3,310

The GBPJPY pair began today’s trading with clear positivity, getting advantage of the unionism of the main indicators for providing positive momentum, to notice achieving some gains by its current stability above the obstacle at 193.30 level.

Therefore, forming extra support at 192.50 level makes us keep the bullish suggestion, reminding you that the extra targets is located near 194.60 level reaching 23.6%Fibonacci correction level at 195.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 192.60 and 194.60

Trend forecast: Bullish

The (USDJPY) price witnessed fluctuated trading in the intraday levels, rising temporarily affected by the stability of the key support level at 142.40, gaining positive momentum to attempt to recover some of its previous losses, at the same time it attempts to offload some of its clear oversold condition on the (RSI), especially with the beginning pf positive overlapping signals, it seems that the sellers is the dominant on the price move, it bounced quickly preparing for breaking this key support, amid its trading alongside a minor bearish trend on the short-term basis.

Platinum price reached the initial extra target at $1100.00, to begin providing sideways trading, due to its neediness to the positive momentum by the stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level.

The suggested scenario depends on the stability of $1080.00 level, which represents the extra support, the stability of the support will increase the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, which might target $1125.00 level, while reaching below this support will increase the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, targeting $1125.00, while reaching below the support will delay the bullish rally, and there is a chance for forming correctional trading, which might target $1068.00 and $1060.00 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $1080.00 and $1125.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver price appreciates as safe-haven demand counterbalances commodities’ concerns.
• Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the US House of Representatives and is now headed to the Senate floor.
• US debt and tariff concerns undermined the Silver demand in the photovoltaic industry.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher after registering losses over 1% in the previous session, hovering around $33.10 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The manufacturing-sensitive commodities, including Silver, faced challenges due to growing concerns regarding the increase in the fiscal deficit in the United States (US). However, rising safe-haven demand over these fiscal concerns could offset the demand-related threat surrounding such commodities.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the US House of Representatives and is on its way to the Senate floor. The US House of Representatives approved Trump’s budget by one vote. The proposal is expected to increase the deficit by $3.8 billion, as it would deliver tax breaks on tip income and US-manufactured car loans, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Silver attracts sellers as uncertain US economic conditions, along with tariff concerns, undermine strong momentum for the photovoltaic industry. Silver is used in various industrial applications, such as electronics, solar panels, and automotive components.

In the first quarter of 2025, China’s wind and solar capacity rose to nearly 1,500 GW due to a 60GW jump in photovoltaic power. Given China’s status as one of the world’s largest manufacturing hubs, the country’s industrial demand for Silver is significant. Moreover, solar power output in Europe also surged by 30% annually in the first quarter.

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and predicted that US federal debt is expected to climb to around 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2023, with the budget deficit expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP. This deterioration is attributed to rising debt-servicing costs, expanding entitlement programs, and falling tax revenues.

• Gold price edges lower to $3,335 in Monday’s Asian session. 
• Trump set a July 9 deadline for a trade deal with the European Union. 
• Renewed inflation concerns and recession fears might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $3,335 during the early Asian session on Monday. The de-escalation of the trade war provides some support to the yellow metal. The FOMC Minute will be the highlight later on Wednesday. 

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump said that he agreed to an extension on the tariff deadline on the European Union (EU) until July 9, rescinding his threat of a 50% tariff from June 1. The easing fears of a global trade war drag the precious metal lower. 

However, traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Japan trade deals and other major economies’ trade deals for fresh impetus. Any signs of escalating trade tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the precious metal. 

Renewed inflation concerns and a US credit rating downgrade boost could underpin the Gold price. Moody’s downgraded the US long-held ‘Aaa’ credit rating to ‘Aa1.’ The downgrade added fuel to a weakening US Dollar (USD) and lifted the USD-denominated Gold price. 

Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, expects the rise in gold prices to continue into the month of June 2025. Trivedi emphasized key drivers like the US credit downgrade, continued Chinese central bank gold purchases, and trade tensions. 

Copper price began today’s trading with a new positivity by surpassing the barrier at $4.6600, announcing its readiness to activate the bullish track in the current period, the unionism of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will reinforce the chances for achieving several gains, to reach the initial target at $4.7500, to press on 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at $4.8100.

Note that activating the negative track requires forming a sharp decline, to settle below $4.5000 level, to confirm targeting several negative stations that begin at $4.4300 and $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6100 and $4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has dropped a bit, a little bit, during the very early hours on Friday, as we continue to see the cyclical trade come into the picture. After all, heating is a major driver of where natural gas goes, as far as price is concerned. And now that there’s not as much need for heat, it makes sense that natural gas in fact drops in value. We are not quite to the time of year when we see the demand for AC pick up, at least not for a few months. So really, we’re in that quiet period where we get the initial bounce, from refilling storage in the US. And now that it’s done, you see the market dropping again, as the demand simply cannot keep up.

At this point, it’s likely that the market is going to go to the $3 level, possibly even $2.83, where we bounced from the last drop. At this point though, I think any rally that shows signs of exhaustion is a selling opportunity, and I’d be a bit surprised to see us break back above the 50-day EMA. If we were to drop below that crucial $2.83 level, then I think that opens up the trapdoor and we could go as low as $2.50 rather quickly. I have no interest in buying natural gas. I simply fade it this time of year, every time it gets a little bit of a pop. This is a very bearish market and should continue to be going forward.

• Silver price oscillates inside Thursday’s range around $33.00 despite significant weakness in the US Dollar.
• Heightened concerns over US fiscal imbalances have kept the US Dollar on the backfoot.
• A fresh escalation in the US-EU trade tensions is expected to support the Silver price.

Silver price (XAG/USD) wobbles in a tight range around $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal remains almost flat despite a substantial weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, refreshes an over three-week low around 99.10.

Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors.

The US Dollar continues to suffer from increasing concerns over the United States (US) fiscal imbalances in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill, which has been advanced to the Senate after being approved by the House of Representatives.

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Trump’s new bill would increase the US debt by $3.8 trillion over the decade, which is currently $36.2 trillion. Such a scenario would further damage the US Sovereign credit rating, which was already downgraded by Moody’s to Aa1 from Aaa last week.

Meanwhile, a fresh escalation in trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) is expected to support the Silver price. Theoretically, the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver, increases when global economic tensions escalate.

During early North American trading hours, US President Trump threatened to impose 50% flat tariffs on the EU in a post on Truth.Social. Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”, Trump said

Silver technical analysis

Silver price oscillates inside Thursday’s trading range around $33.00 on Friday. The white metal trades in a range between $31.65 and $33.70 for a month. The near-term trend of the white metal is uncertain as it wobbles around the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $32.75.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

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