Bearish Inside Day Forms

Today, Thursday, crude oil consolidated forming an inside day with a high of $63.73 and low at $62.40. There are a couple indications of weakness provided from the day. Notice that the day’s range is in the lower half of Wednesday’s range, and at the time of this writing, crude oil is trading below the halfway point of the range and looks likely to close in a similar relatively bearish position. Moreover, the high for the day found resistance at a significant price level from May 2023 (dashed horizontal). That was the lowest traded price for crude oil until the recent sharp fall.

Below $61.94 Points Lower

A decline below today’s low provides the next sign of weakening, while a deeper bearish retracement is signaled on a drop below Wednesday’s low of $61.94. Notice that there is also a small rising trend line across the bottom of recent price action. That line will already be broken if Wednesday’s low is triggered. If the decline is triggered there are two key areas to watch for support. The first is at a recent interim swing low of $60.40 and the 50% retracement at $60.27. Then, further down is a range from $59.08 to $58.86, defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and prior daily support, respectively.

Weak Weekly Close Looks Likely

There is one more day to the week with crude oil set to establish a second consecutive higher weekly high and higher weekly low. It reflects short term strength. But bearish price action following this week’s high puts crude oil in a position to end lower for the period and likely below last week’s high of $64.72. Therefore, the upside weekly breakout would not be confirmed on that time frame.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,332.42

• A better mood keeps market players away from safe-haven assets.
• United States data was mixed, yet Wall Street extends its recent rally.
• XAU/USD struggles to recover its bullish momentum despite back above $3,300.

Gold price recovered the $3,300 mark late on Wednesday, extending its recovery up to $3,367.67 in the early Asian session. The XAU/USD pair, however, retreated from such a high and spent most of the day consolidating in the current $3,330 area, as a better market mood keeps safe-haven assets out of investors’ radar.

Sentiment was mixed throughout the day, with caution present through the Asian and European sessions amid headlines coming from China, indicating that there were no ongoing discussions with the US on tariffs, according to a Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson.

Market players reduced expectations of a deal coming up, despite United States (US) President Donald Trump stating a meeting with China on trade issues was held in the American morning.

Wall Street shrugged off the negative tone of its overseas counterparts, with major indexes extending their advances and holding on to gains at the time of writing, which further draws attention from safe-haven Gold.

Meanwhile, the US released a slew of mixed macroeconomic data. Durable Goods Order improved to 9.2% in March, much better than the 2% forecast. Initial Jobless Claims were slightly worse than anticipated, up to 222K vs the 21K expected. March Existing Home Sales, however, fell by 5.9%, worse than the -3% anticipated. Finally, the April Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity index, with posted -5, worse than the 1 from March.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair is up on the day, although it remains contained within Wednesday’s range. Technical indicators have changed course and aim north within positive levels, gaining fresh impetus and supporting additional gains. At the same time, the pair keeps developing far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,182, advancing well above also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.

The 4-hour chart shows that the XAU/USD pair is comfortably consolidating, with technical readings suggesting a bearish twist. The bright metal keeps developing below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, providing dynamic resistance at around $3,370, although the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes well below the current level. Finally, technical indicators remain directionless within negative levels. A break through the aforementioned 20 SMA at around $3,370 should open the door for a more sustainable rally.

Support levels: 3,314.50 3,301.40 3,288.70

Resistance levels: 3,344.60 3,358.10 3,370.00

41.7% Decline Reached

Today’s low completed a $2.04 or 41.7% decline in the price of natural gas in 32 days, when measured from the recent trend high of $4.90 (A). Since the February 2024 low, the biggest bearish correction was 40.7%, starting after the $3.16 swing high in June. Therefore, on a percentage basis there is price symmetry between the two downswings, which can sometimes lead to a completion of the correction.

But since new bearish signs were seen this week, with a drop below a prior swing low and the 200-Day MA, the potential to eventually decline to test support around the lower uptrend line (purple), increases. That trendline is part of a large rising parallel trend channel that reflects a degree of symmetry within the price structure of the long-term uptrend.

Project to Lower Channel Line

Nevertheless, further bearish indications follow a rejection of natural gas from the top of the channel. It indicates that sellers remain in charge, with renewed enthusiasm. Once one side of the pattern is tested and leads to a reversal, the other side of the pattern becomes a potential target. Whether the lower line is reached or not, the next lower price target becomes more likely to be hit. Moreover, in addition to the purple uptrend line that represents potential support, a top line for a previous large symmetrical triangle pattern is also nearby.

AVWAP Level at Thursday’s Low

Despite the continued bearish indications, today’s low tested support at the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) (light blue) level measured from the February 2024 low. That highlights today’s low as a potentially significant support level. It is worth keeping an eye on as the higher swing low from October was a successful test of support around the same AVWAP line. Keep in mind that since there was a slight undercut of the line, it was followed by a quick recovery. A similar scenario could unfold with the current correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price retraces to near $33.30 on hopes of de-escalation in US-China trade war.
• The demand of Silver as industrial metal will increase if the US and China ends tariff war.
• China wants the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures before coming to the table.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces to near $33.30 during North American trading hours on Thursday from an almost three-week high of $33.70 posted earlier in the day. The white metal corrects as investors become hopeful of significant de-escalation in trade war between the United States (US) and China.

Investors’ confidence on normalizing trade relations between the world’s two largest powerhouses increased after US President Donald Trump assured of making a deal with Beijing. Discussions with Beijing are going well, and I think that we will reach a deal,” Trump said on Tuesday.

Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled that both nations can reduce additional tariffs imposed recently. “I don’t think either side believes that the current tariff levels are sustainable, so I would not be surprised if they went down in a mutual way,” Bessent said on Wednesday.

A report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed on Wednesday that the White House can lower additional import duties roughly between 50%-65%.

Meanwhile, China has given ultimatum to the US to “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” if it wants trade talks, according to a spokesperson from Chinese commerce ministry, Financial Times (FT) reported.

Positive comments from Washington for resolving trade disputes between the US and China have diminished fears of a global economic turmoil. Theoretically, the scenario weighs on the safe-haven demand of the Silver price. However, improving relations between them increase the demand of Silver as industrial metal.

Silver has application in various industries, such as Electric Vehicles (EV), electronic alliances, power and cables, mining etc.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price tests the breakout region of the consolidation around $33.10 formed on the daily timeframe. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.55 continues to provide support to the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks above 60.00.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Fed Policy Outlook and Beige Book Fuel Rate Cut Expectations

Markets are increasingly pricing in a June rate cut, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing odds above 60% for at least one reduction this summer. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released Wednesday, pointed to slowing labor market momentum and tepid consumer spending.

“Growth is modest and uneven,” the report noted, signaling that conditions could soon warrant a policy response.

Non-yielding assets like gold benefit from a lower interest rate environment. With traders anticipating as many as three cuts in 2025, gold’s resilience reflects a hedge against weakening macroeconomic data and declining yields.

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped from recent highs as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed reports of unilateral tariff reductions, underscoring continued uncertainty around the U.S.-China trade dialogue. A weaker dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated assets, lending support to bullion.

A preliminary reading of S&P Global’s April PMI showed mixed results: manufacturing ticked higher, while services slowed, adding to investor caution. Looking ahead, Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders will provide the next major data points.

While gold remains range-bound, its ability to hold above $3,300 amid improving sentiment suggests persistent underlying demand driven by macro and policy uncertainty.

The EURJPY pair provided several slow sideways range trading, due to its neediness to the negative momentum, but its main stability below the bearish channel’s resistance at 163.00 makes us keep the negative suggestion in the near and medium period trading.

Stochastic exit from the overbought level will increase the chances for gaining negative momentum, to reinforce the chances of targeting negative stations, which might begin at 161.30 and 160.30, while moving to the bullish track requires forming a strong bullish attack, to provide several positive closes above 163.25 level, then begin recording several gains by its rally to 164.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 160.35 and 162.65

Trend forecast: Bearish

The NZDCAD price forms bearish correctional waves but its main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, besides the continuation of forming extra support at 0.8220 level, these factors support the continuation of the positivity in the upcoming trading.

Gathering the required momentum is important to assist activating the bullish attack, which targets 0.8295 level reaching the near period of the resistance at 0.8365, while the trading below the extra support will confirm delaying the bullish attack and forming several bearish correctional waves, to attempt to test the moving average 55 near 0.8180.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8220 and 0.8295

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURUSD settled bearishly in its recent intraday trading, affected by the technical formation negativity, which was formed previously on the short- term basis, represented by the rising wedge pattern, which causes correctional pressures on the price.

The continuation of the trading below EMA50, besides the emergence of weakness signals from the (RSI), after offloading some of the exaggerated oversold conditions, increase the continuation of the negative scenario.

Platinum price continued forming weak sideways trading by its repeated stability near the resistance at $975.00, confirming its affection for the continuation of the main indicators until this moment, therefore, we will keep waiting for achieving the required breach to increase the chances of forming new bullish waves, to begin recording gains by its rally to $994.00 and $1005.00.

While the breach failure might assist to activate the bearish correctional track in the current trading, which forces the price to renew the pressure on the moving average 55 at $960.00, to attempt to target extra support near $950.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $962.00 and $974.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver retreats after touching a fresh multi-month high during the Asian session on Thursday.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buyers.
• A convincing break below the $32.00 mark is needed to negate the near-term positive outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers after hitting a nearly three-week top near the $33.70 region during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong move up. The white metal currently trades around the $33.35-$33.30 area, down 0.75% for the day, though the technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels.

The overnight breakout through a short-term trading range held over the past week or so, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction, validates the near-term positive outlook for the XAG/USD. Hence, any further decline is more likely to get bought into the $33.00 round figure mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point.

A convincing break below the said handle might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD further toward the $32.40 support en route to the $32.10-$32.00 area. Some follow-through selling will suggest that the recent recovery from the $28.00 mark, or the year-to-date low touched earlier this month, has run out of steam and pave the way for deeper losses.

On the flip side, momentum beyond the Asian session high, around the $33.70 region, should allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $34.00 mark. The subsequent move higher could lift the commodity towards the $34.30 intermediate hurdle en route to the $34.55-$34.60 area or the highest level since October 2024 touched last month and the $35.00 psychological mark.

Silver 4-hour chart