Recent attempts to strengthen the price of natural gas have been met with failures. Last week’s swing high of 1.94 completed a lower swing high, relative to the higher March 1 swing high. Further, recent strength was met resistance below lower blue dashed parallel channel line. In other words, the dashed line represents potential resistance, and evidence for resistance was seen. Such behavior reflects continued downward pressure on the price of natural gas, which was confirmed with today’s breakdown.
Moving Average Support Zone Fails
Notice that the downtrend line, orange 50-Day MA, and purple 20-Day MA had all converged around the same potential support zone. There was a clear chance for the zone to reject price to the upside and it has failed to materialize. Instead, a bearish breakdown has been triggered, putting short-term price action in alignment with the larger bearish trend. A breakdown from consolidation is first indicated on a drop below the lower boundary line, but more so on a decline below the most recent swing low at 1.59.
Range Bound Until Pennant Breakout
Regardless of the bearish nature of the pennant pattern, it won’t matter much until there is a breakout of the pattern. Choppy range bound trading is likely for the time being if the pennant continues to evolve. Certainly, the pattern could evolve for a while longer with trading contained within its boundaries. Therefore, a bounce off the lower boundary line could eventually lead to a test of resistance at the top line of the pattern. At that point, a bullish reversal may also be a possibility. Given recent history, an upside breakout would be triggered on a rally above the most recent seeing high at 1.94.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week.
The EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $83.78 per barrel this year and $82.48 per barrel next year, according to the report, which projected that the commodity will average $85.30 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $86.84 per barrel in the third quarter, and $85.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter of this year, the WTI spot price averaged $77.50 per barrel, the STEO showed.
In 2025, the EIA expects the WTI spot price to average $83.84 per barrel in the first quarter, $82.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $81.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the STEO.
The EIA forecast in its previous March STEO that the WTI spot price would average $77.08 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $83.80 per barrel in the second quarter, $84.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $83.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $82.15 per barrel overall in 2024.
That STEO showed that the EIA expected the WTI spot price to come in at $82.84 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $79.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $77.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $80.30 per barrel overall in 2025.
In a research note sent to Rigzone last Monday, J.P Morgan projected that the WTI crude price will average $79 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will average $75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $80 per barrel across the second and third quarters, $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In a report sent to Rigzone last Tuesday, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future price will average $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $95 per barrel in the third quarter, $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $104 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $100 per barrel in the second quarter, and $108 per barrel in the third quarter.
Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will average $106 per barrel overall in 2025, $125 per barrel overall in 2026, and $112 per barrel overall in 2027.
In a report sent to Rigzone at the start of the month, BofA Global Research revealed that it had increased its 2024 WTI price forecast to $81 per barrel.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projected in a report sent to Rigzone at the end of March that the WTI crude price will average $82 per barrel in 2024 and $81 per barrel in 2025.
Also last month, executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expected the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
The survey showed that the average response executives from 145 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $80.11 per barrel. The low forecast in the survey was $70 per barrel, the high forecast was $120 per barrel, and the WTI price during the survey was $82.52 per barrel, the survey highlighted.
The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 135 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $79 per barrel for the six month mark, $81 per barrel for the year mark, $83 per barrel for the two year mark, and $90 per barrel for the five year mark.
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Gold price jumps on a flight to safety after Iran attacked Israel late Saturday.
US Dollar fails to benefit from geopolitical turmoil and higher US Treasury bond yields.
Gold price looks north alongside 4H RSI ahead of US Retail Sales data.
Gold price is consolidating its rebound above $2,350 early Monday, reversing half the corrective decline from record highs of $$2,432 seen on Friday.
Gold price gains on flight to safety
Despite a recovery in Asian markets, led by the rally in Chinese stocks, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode before placing fresh bets on risky assets following late Saturday’s escalation in the Middle East geopolitical tensions.
Iran’s retaliatory drone attacks on Israel on Saturday spooked markets and rekindled the safety appeal of Gold price, as investors stay fearful of whether Iran’s unprecedented strike on Israel could fuel a wider regional conflict.
Gold price is also benefiting from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), as the Greenback pays little heed to the cautious market environment. Market participants likely believe that the recent upsurge in the US Dollar is excessive, and hence, they avoid creating fresh positions in the US currency even though US Treasury bond yields look to extend Friday’s positive momentum.
US Treasury bond yields keep up recent gains due to the pushback in expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest cut from June to September, courtesy of elevated inflation level and a resilient US economy. The further upside in the Gold price, therefore, appears elusive on firmer US Treasury bond yields.
However, if risk sentiment sees a dramatic positive shift, it could trigger a fresh selling wave in Gold price. Traders are taking account of the UK, France and Egypt condemning Iran’s action while Saudi Arabia has called for restraint, calming markets somewhat so far this Monday. The S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% on the day, reflecting the renewed market optimism.
All eyes now remain on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East for fresh trading impetus in Gold price. If the Middle East turmoil worsens, Gold price could see an extension of the rebound toward $2,400. But a resurgent demand for the US Dollar on increased safe-haven flows and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a headwind to the Gold price upswing.
The top-tier US Retail Sales data due later on Monday could also have a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and, in turn, on the USD-denominated Gold price.
with the monthly headline figure to increase by 0.3% in March, slower than February’s 0.6% rise.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart
As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is defending the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,356, at the moment.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recpatured the 50 level, now holding near 53.0, suggesting that the upside bias appears intact.
Initial topside target is seen the intraday highs of $2,373, above which the $2,400 round figure will be tested again.
Acceptance above the latter will expose the record high of $2,432.
If the Gold price fails to hold above the 21-SMA at $2,356 on a four-hour candlestick closing basis, the correction could resume toward the previous day’s low of $2,334. The 50-SMA aligns near that level.
Further down, the previous week’s low of $2,319 will come into play.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold price jumps on a flight to safety after Iran attacked Israel late Saturday.
US Dollar fails to benefit from geopolitical turmoil and higher US Treasury bond yields.
Gold price looks north alongside 4H RSI ahead of US Retail Sales data.
Gold price is consolidating its rebound above $2,350 early Monday, reversing half the corrective decline from record highs of $$2,432 seen on Friday.
Gold price gains on flight to safety
Despite a recovery in Asian markets, led by the rally in Chinese stocks, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode before placing fresh bets on risky assets following late Saturday’s escalation in the Middle East geopolitical tensions.
Iran’s retaliatory drone attacks on Israel on Saturday spooked markets and rekindled the safety appeal of Gold price, as investors stay fearful of whether Iran’s unprecedented strike on Israel could fuel a wider regional conflict.
Gold price is also benefiting from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), as the Greenback pays little heed to the cautious market environment. Market participants likely believe that the recent upsurge in the US Dollar is excessive, and hence, they avoid creating fresh positions in the US currency even though US Treasury bond yields look to extend Friday’s positive momentum.
US Treasury bond yields keep up recent gains due to the pushback in expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest cut from June to September, courtesy of elevated inflation level and a resilient US economy. The further upside in the Gold price, therefore, appears elusive on firmer US Treasury bond yields.
However, if risk sentiment sees a dramatic positive shift, it could trigger a fresh selling wave in Gold price. Traders are taking account of the UK, France and Egypt condemning Iran’s action while Saudi Arabia has called for restraint, calming markets somewhat so far this Monday. The S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% on the day, reflecting the renewed market optimism.
All eyes now remain on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East for fresh trading impetus in Gold price. If the Middle East turmoil worsens, Gold price could see an extension of the rebound toward $2,400. But a resurgent demand for the US Dollar on increased safe-haven flows and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a headwind to the Gold price upswing.
The top-tier US Retail Sales data due later on Monday could also have a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and, in turn, on the USD-denominated Gold price.
with the monthly headline figure to increase by 0.3% in March, slower than February’s 0.6% rise.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart
As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is defending the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,356, at the moment.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recpatured the 50 level, now holding near 53.0, suggesting that the upside bias appears intact.
Initial topside target is seen the intraday highs of $2,373, above which the $2,400 round figure will be tested again.
Acceptance above the latter will expose the record high of $2,432.
If the Gold price fails to hold above the 21-SMA at $2,356 on a four-hour candlestick closing basis, the correction could resume toward the previous day’s low of $2,334. The 50-SMA aligns near that level.
Further down, the previous week’s low of $2,319 will come into play.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold price jumps on a flight to safety after Iran attacked Israel late Saturday.
US Dollar fails to benefit from geopolitical turmoil and higher US Treasury bond yields.
Gold price looks north alongside 4H RSI ahead of US Retail Sales data.
Gold price is consolidating its rebound above $2,350 early Monday, reversing half the corrective decline from record highs of $$2,432 seen on Friday.
Gold price gains on flight to safety
Despite a recovery in Asian markets, led by the rally in Chinese stocks, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode before placing fresh bets on risky assets following late Saturday’s escalation in the Middle East geopolitical tensions.
Iran’s retaliatory drone attacks on Israel on Saturday spooked markets and rekindled the safety appeal of Gold price, as investors stay fearful of whether Iran’s unprecedented strike on Israel could fuel a wider regional conflict.
Gold price is also benefiting from a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), as the Greenback pays little heed to the cautious market environment. Market participants likely believe that the recent upsurge in the US Dollar is excessive, and hence, they avoid creating fresh positions in the US currency even though US Treasury bond yields look to extend Friday’s positive momentum.
US Treasury bond yields keep up recent gains due to the pushback in expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest cut from June to September, courtesy of elevated inflation level and a resilient US economy. The further upside in the Gold price, therefore, appears elusive on firmer US Treasury bond yields.
However, if risk sentiment sees a dramatic positive shift, it could trigger a fresh selling wave in Gold price. Traders are taking account of the UK, France and Egypt condemning Iran’s action while Saudi Arabia has called for restraint, calming markets somewhat so far this Monday. The S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% on the day, reflecting the renewed market optimism.
All eyes now remain on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East for fresh trading impetus in Gold price. If the Middle East turmoil worsens, Gold price could see an extension of the rebound toward $2,400. But a resurgent demand for the US Dollar on increased safe-haven flows and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations could act as a headwind to the Gold price upswing.
The top-tier US Retail Sales data due later on Monday could also have a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar and, in turn, on the USD-denominated Gold price.
with the monthly headline figure to increase by 0.3% in March, slower than February’s 0.6% rise.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart
As observed on the four-hour chart, Gold price is defending the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,356, at the moment.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recpatured the 50 level, now holding near 53.0, suggesting that the upside bias appears intact.
Initial topside target is seen the intraday highs of $2,373, above which the $2,400 round figure will be tested again.
Acceptance above the latter will expose the record high of $2,432.
If the Gold price fails to hold above the 21-SMA at $2,356 on a four-hour candlestick closing basis, the correction could resume toward the previous day’s low of $2,334. The 50-SMA aligns near that level.
Further down, the previous week’s low of $2,319 will come into play.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Natural gas markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to hang around the $2.50 level. The $2.50 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we’ve seen a lot of noise in the past. Whether or not it holds remains to be seen, but it certainly looks as if we are trying to get into some type of basing pattern. That being said, we don’t have the volume, nor do we have the explosive move to the upside showing signs of the reversal.
That reversal could be a short-term buying opportunity, but I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be a scenario where you can hang onto that trade. I think it would be a bear market rally, but it would also be a nice shorting opportunity for swing traders like myself. Any signs of exhaustion near the 50-Day EMA, or the $4.00 level will be jumped on, and I will not hesitate to start shorting.
On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the range, then it’s likely that we could go to the $2.00 level. The market will continue to see a lot of volatility, but I also think that given enough time it’s likely that we will see a turnaround, if for no other reason than just simply people collecting profits after shorting this monster moved to the downside. Ultimately, the market continues to be very quiet at the moment, so unless you are short-term scalper, there isn’t a whole lot to do in this type of environment. However, this could be the beginning of the market trying to find its way back to higher levels.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
FXEmpire.com – Natural gas dipped briefly below the minor 1.75 swing low from Monday before finding support at 1.73 and stalling the descent. Volatility diminished as it is on track to complete a narrow range day while further testing support around the long-term downtrend line and 20-Day MA, now at 1.76. If natural gas can advance above today’s high of 1.785 heading into next it has a chance to progress the near-term uptrend that starts from the higher swing low and potential second bottom (C).
Drop Below Today’s Low Points to Lower Triangle Line
However, a drop below today’s low without a quick recovery increases the chance that natural gas will further trace out a developing symmetrical triangle (purple). A drop below today’s low increases the chance of a test of support at the lower boundary line of the triangle. Recent minor signs of strength seen recently as natural gas recaptured both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs would then be negated.
Rally Above 1.785 Would Be First Sign of Strengthening
Nevertheless, if natural gas can continue to find support around the downtrend line and 20-Day MA, followed by signs of strength, it will likely have completed a minor pullback. The chance for an eventual bull trend continuation will then become more likely. A rally above today’s high of 1.785 will provide an initial signal, but upside follow through will be key as to whether it can keep rising from there.
Weekly Chart Analysis
On a weekly basis, natural gas is on track to close weak, in the lower third of the week’s range and possibly with a doji. The weekly candle will be bearish unless natural gas can rise before today’s close. Last week also ended relatively weak. This week will be the second in a row where natural gas is closing in the lower area of the week’s range. In both cases support for the week was seen in the 8-Week MA.
Natural gas has been mostly below the 8-Week line since early-January. So, a successful test of support at the 8-Week line is one sign of strength. Regardless, the weekly performance did not confirm strength since this week and last week ended (likely) in the lower part of the range. Therefore, a drop below today’s low would also give a weekly bearish signal relative to this week’s low and the 8-Week MA.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Oil prices rose around one per cent in the previous session on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but posted a weekly loss over a bearish world oil demand growth forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and worries about delayed US interest rate cuts after hotter-than-expected inflation.
Brent crude futures settled up 71 cents at $90.45 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 64 cents to $85.66. For the week, Brent declined 0.8 per cent, while WTI dropped more than one per cent. Coming to domestic prices, crude oil futures settled 0.04 per cent higher at ₹7,190 after hitting an intra day high of ₹7,322 on the multi commodity exchange. Also Read:US inflation beats Wall Street estimates, rises 0.4% in March; Fed’s June rate cut hopes fade away
What’s driving crude oil prices?
-The IEA cut its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Thursday that the world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024. Analysts said that for now the market is mostly in the OPEC demand camp as opposed to the IEA’s reduced forecast.
-During the week, oil prices neared a six-month high on concern that Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, might retaliate for a suspected Israeli warplane attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus.
-Analysts noted that the market’s main focus is on whether Iran will retaliate against Israel, with the fear of supply disruption associated with the events in the Middle East supporting prices. The US expects an attack by Iran against Israel but one that would not be big enough to draw itself into war. Tehran has signaled a response aimed at avoiding major escalation.
-Supply chain issues still carry the biggest risk premium as Iran maintains its threat to shut the Suez Canal, said economist at Matador Economics. Friday’s gains erased the previous session’s losses, which were dominated by stubborn US inflation that dampened hopes for an interest rate cut as early as June.
-Higher interest rates can weaken economic growth and depress oil demand. US energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its report. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by three to 617 in the week to April 12, the lowest since November. Also Read:Oil traders stay bullish as Brent hovers at $90: ‘Crude to stay elevated even if Middle-East tensions cool down’
Where are prices headed?
Oil market analysts said that the weekly decline is attributed to a buildup in US crude oil inventories, which rose to 5.84 million barrels last week, the highest level since July 2023, raising concerns about demand.
The IEA has lowered its demand forecast due to sluggish economic growth and rising electric vehicle (EV) demand, trimming estimates by 0.13 mbpd to 1.2 mbpd—one million barrels per day less than OPEC’s expectations.
‘’The IEA predicts a significant supply buffer of six mbpd, driven by robust non-OPEC supply and slowing demand. However, near-term geopolitical risks, such as the potential for Iran to launch missiles on Israel, could provide a downside cushion to crude oil prices, with WTI crude oil prices projected to reach warningly high levels of $87-$89,” said Riya Singh – Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency Desk, Emkay Global.
Also Read: Expert View | Oil market oversupplied with high US output, Brent seen at $87-$92 for 2024: ShareKhan’s Mohammed Imran
The dollar index breached the 105 threshold, exerting pressure on crude oil prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s threat to retaliate against Israel could provide some support to crude oil prices at lower levels, added analysts.
‘’With global supply already constrained due to OPEC+ output cuts, this geopolitical tension could further bolster prices. Support for crude oil stands at $84.50–83.90, with resistance projected at $85.90-86.60. In Indian Rupees, crude oil is supported at Rs7,020-6,930, while resistance lies at Rs7,190-7,280,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (VICOFA) predicted that prices of coffee in the country will keep increasing because coffee prices in the world have constantly fluctuated.
VICOFA predicts coffee prices will keep rising under impact of world prices
However, VICOFA said that it is difficult to say how much the specific increase will be.
SGGP newspaper on April 2 published an article that increased raw coffee prices delight farmers, yet cause unease among businesses. On April 6, SGGP Newspaper reported that coffee prices in the Central Highlands region had exceeded VND100,000 a kg and coffee prices in many places kept increasing by VND3,000 a kg on April 7.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) said that the general trend is that domestic coffee prices are still increasing due to the direct impact of constantly fluctuating world coffee prices; yet, the association can’t forecast the specific increase level.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam is the second largest supplier of coffee output in the world after Brazil. According to estimates, prolonged drought and heat will reduce output by about 20 percent in the Southeast and Central Highlands regions.
Purchasers and processing coffee exporters said that if the prices of raw coffee continue to increase and are as difficult to forecast as they are currently, it will continue to affect production and business activities. As a consequence, many businesses dare not to sign stable export contracts with partners but only spot contracts – buying or selling coffee for immediate settlement (payment and delivery) on the spot date.
Economic experts also warn that rising coffee prices will be very beneficial for farmers.
However, increasing prices will show signs of virtual increases resulting in some instability in the domestic market because establishments holding large amounts of coffee stop selling or they are hoarding goods to wait for new prices, which can lead to a frozen market or slow transactions.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development further informed that this year’s coffee crop will not be harvested until around October. To ensure stable productivity and the output of raw material, the Department of Crop Production under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has sent a document to localities requesting to assess the current production – consumption situation as well as the weather to continue to monitor developments and provide forecasts so that responsible agencies can give early guidance.
According to Director Nguyen Nhu Cuong of the Department of Crop Production’s preliminary assessment, this year’s productivity and output of the coffee crop in the country only reduced due to drought. In the immediate future, the Department of Crop Production continues to ask localities to guide people in implementing preventative measures to cope with drought early and work to have enough water for irrigation.
Copper plates on wagons ready for onward shipping at the Mufulira refinery, operated by Mopani Copper Mines Plc, in Mufulira, Zambia, on Friday, May 6, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Copper briefly hit a high of $4.334 in intraday trading on Tuesday, reflecting its highest level since the middle of January last year.
Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.6% higher at $9,477 per metric ton.
Demand for copper is widely considered a proxy for economic health. The base metal is critically important to the energy transition ecosystem and is integral to manufacturing electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines.
Wall Street banks are bullish on the outlook for copper prices through to the end of the year.
Earlier this week, analysts at Citi said that they believe the second secular bull market of copper this century is now underway — roughly 20 years after the first such cycle.
Citi said on Monday that it expects copper prices to trend higher over the coming months, averaging $10,000 per metric ton by the end of the year and climbing to $12,000 in 2026, according to the bank’s base-case scenario.
“Explosive price upside is possible over the next 2-3 years too, if a strong cyclical recovery occurs at any time, with prices potentially rising more than 2/3rds to $15k/t+ in this, our bull case scenario,” analysts at Citi said in a research note.
“Our $12k/t base case assumes only a small uptick in cyclical demand growth over the course of 2025 and 2026,” they added.
Separately, analysts at Bank of America have raised their 2024 price target for copper to $9,321, up from its previous forecast of $8,625.
The Wall Street bank said Monday that copper was at the “at the epicentre of the energy transition, which means that the lack of mine supply growth is being felt acutely.”
“Tight concentrates availability is increasingly capping production at China’s smelters and refiners, potentially pushing consumers of refined metal back into international markets,” analysts at Bank of America said in a research note.
“At the same time, demand in the US and Europe should bounce back as economies bottom out; this, along with rising demand from the energy transition, will likely move the copper market into deficit this year,” they added.
Not everyone’s convinced copper prices will hold onto projected gains this year.
“Commodity markets always self-solve,” Colin Hamilton, commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday.
“They always find ways of softening things out. If we can’t solve from the supply side, well guess what, we’ll hurt demand and that’s what inflation naturally does. That’s why we had underperformance for much of the past year,” Hamilton said.
“So, if copper gets say to let’s say four times the aluminum price, you would tend to see a bit of switching and substitution. I see some very high copper price targets out there: we could reach them temporarily, but then you would see demand adjusting in key areas.”
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.
The SEC might approve the first ethereum spot ETFs soon.
The long-term upside hinges on the coin’s popularity.
Ethereum’s momentum is carrying forward into 2024. The world’s leading altcoin is soaring to highs not seen since 2021.
What’s causing the ethereum rally? Well, investor sentiment has increased since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year.
Ethereum spot ETFs might be just around the corner. That prospect could open the door for a wave of institutional investors and send ethereum prices to new all-time highs.
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Ethereum performance
Ethereum prices surged to new 52-week highs in mid-February 2024 and topped the $4,000 level in early March 2024.
The spot bitcoin ETF news has been the most significant cryptocurrency catalyst in 2024. But ethereum could also rally in the coming months if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates sooner or more aggressively than expected.
ETH prices are up 48% in 2024. That’s roughly in line with bitcoin’s year-to-date gain. As of late March, Ethereum is trading below its all-time high of $4,891 set in November 2021.
Additional upside in 2024 depends on monetary policy. It also hinges on clarity regarding crypto regulations and ethereum’s ability to demonstrate scalability. The scalability factor is important as the number of decentralized applications on its blockchain grows.
Ethereum price stats
Ethereum price prediction 2024
Ethereum’s momentum has been bullish in 2024. Its chart looks impressive, too. The crypto experienced a “golden cross” when its 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day SMA in November 2023. That’s a bullish technical indicator.
The leading altcoin might be overbought in the near term due to the rally in February and March. But a pullback to around the 50-day SMA at $3,000 wouldn’t necessarily be a bearish signal. The key resistance level to watch is $4,000, where the ethereum rally stalled in March.
If ethereum breaks out above $4,000 in 2024, the next key level will be surpassing the all-time high of $4,891.
Industry price targets for ethereum in 2024 range between $2,600 and $20,000. But crypto markets are unpredictable and volatile. So take price targets with a grain of salt.
Ethereum spot ETFs
The SEC delayed its ruling on BlackRock’s ethereum spot ETF application.
News on the approval and subsequent launch of ethereum spot ETFs could be a major bullish catalyst. But the SEC might want to observe the spot bitcoin ETFs for an extended period before giving other spot crypto ETFs the green light.
Bloomberg ETF analysts recently lowered their odds of an ethereum spot ETF approval by May 2024 to just 30%.
Ethereum price prediction 2025
Ethereum models and predictions get even less reliable when you look to 2025. Several variables could impact the crypto’s price next year.
Artificial intelligence-based websites, crypto traders and industry analysts have 2025 ethereum price targets ranging from around $6,000 to above $21,000. Industry insiders project the crypto will reach nearly $7,500 by 2025.
Fintech solutions provider Modulus Global’s models predict ethereum will reach $6,828 during the current cycle. But Modulus CEO Richard Gardner said that peak could be one to three years away.
Will ethereum outperform bitcoin eventually?
Both cryptos have performed extremely well. But bitcoin’s 153% gain in the past year has topped ethereum’s 104% gain as spot bitcoin ETFs have grabbed headlines.
Ethereum has been the better investment over a longer period, though. It’s generated nearly double the return of bitcoin over the past five years. But in context, ethereum had a longer runway, trading at less than $200 in April 2019.
Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer at Yield App, said comparing bitcoin and ethereum is like comparing apples and oranges. While Kiely noted ethereum could outperform bitcoin eventually, many analysts say it’s unlikely to happen in the short term.
Historical sentiments: Ethereum price history
The ethereum blockchain went live in 2015 and spent most of its first few months trading for less than $2. Ethereum didn’t generate significant price momentum until skyrocketing bitcoin prices gained mainstream awareness in late 2017.
ETH prices hit $100 for the first time in May 2017. They broke above $1,000 in January 2018 after the launch of the first bitcoin futures contracts in December 2017.
CME Group’s bitcoin futures were the first crypto-related financial products from a mainstream financial institution. It followed up with ethereum futures contracts in September 2022.
Ethereum prices peaked above $1,300 in January 2018 before plummeting to less than $100 by December 2018.
Ethereum trading during the COVID-19 pandemic
Crypto trading became trendy once again during the COVID-19 pandemic. The price of ethereum soared to new all-time highs and peaked at nearly $5,000 in November 2021. That was before rising interest rates triggered a sell-off in cryptos in 2022.
The 2022 sell-off created chaos in the crypto market. Luna and its associated stablecoin terra completely collapsed in May 2022. Crypto exchange FTX and a handful of other prominent crypto firms and crypto lenders filed for bankruptcy protection later that year.
Crypto winter and beyond
Ethereum prices dropped as low as the $1,000 threshold during the crypto winter of 2022. But ETH made it back above $1,500 by January 2023. Since then, it’s continued gaining ground throughout the year. ETH finished 2023 in the $2,200 range.
The crypto rally picked up in early 2024 following the launch of the first spot bitcoin ETFs. The SEC approval sent ethereum’s price above $4,000 for the first time in more than two years.
Ethereum’s utility
Bitcoin is used primarily as a store of value and a means of value transfer. The ethereum blockchain network, on the other hand, has a unique utility for dApp developers. They use the ethereum network to develop other cryptocurrencies, trade non-fungible tokens, and create and run smart contracts and other decentralized finance applications.
Bitcoin’s overall crypto market dominance has been on the rise. But ethereum’s utility and decentralization have helped it continue to dominate the sprawling field of altcoins.
Ethereum is also the most popular blockchain for NFT sales. Its network has nearly 60% more NFT sales than the bitcoin blockchain. It also has significantly more NFT sales than any other blockchain, according to CryptoSlam.
Finally, ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work verification might make the crypto more scalable. It’s also more appealing to those who are concerned about the environmental impact of crypto mining.
Ether futures
Ethereum is the only crypto other than bitcoin with futures contracts that trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell an asset at a specific price at a future date. They can provide a high degree of leverage that can supercharge returns.
Futures trading is prevalent among institutional investors. And ethereum futures can serve as useful hedges against bitcoin positions.
You can trade ethereum futures contracts as a retail investor. But their inherent volatility creates an additional dimension of risk on top of an extremely volatile and risky crypto.
Can ethereum hit $20,000?
Determining a true value for ethereum can be difficult for even professional financial analysts. The crypto doesn’t generate cash flow or revenue like a traditional business. It also doesn’t represent ownership of a physical asset or intellectual property.
Analysts at VanEck use estimates of total ethereum network revenue to make long-term price projections for the crypto. VanEck forecasts that ethereum network revenue will climb from $2.6 billion to $51 billion by 2030.
The firm’s bull-case projection of $136.7 billion in 2030 revenue represents a best-case scenario ethereum price target of around $51,000.
Can ethereum reach $50,000?
Ethereum prices could surpass $50,000 by 2030 in a best-case scenario, according to VanEck. But that would require a significant rise in activity on the ethereum blockchain over the next six years. When more apps are running on the blockchain, increased fee revenue is generated.
Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer at Komodo Platform, said such growth hinges on the ethereum network’s scalability.
“If the ethereum network becomes more scalable, ETH could be a good investment alternative to bitcoin. However, reaching $50,000 during the next bull market cycle is possible … but unlikely,” Stadelmann said.
Should you invest in ethereum?
The ethereum blockchain has emerged as the top blockchain for dApp developers. That positions the crypto as a key player in the future of finance, NFTs and other industries. The more popular the ethereum network becomes, the more the long-term bull case makes sense.
But there is no guarantee ethereum will maintain its position as the top dApp blockchain over the long term. The crypto has been an excellent long-term investment up to this point. That said, ethereum prices have always been extremely volatile and prone to extreme sell-offs.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
Ethereum’s all-time high was $4,891 in November 2021.
Ethereum might be an appropriate investment for short-term market speculators and traders who have a high risk tolerance and are looking for an extremely volatile asset.
But ethereum has an unproven long-term track record compared to assets such as gold, stocks and bonds. Don’t assume its strong past performance is a guarantee of future returns.
It’s extremely difficult to accurately predict the price of crypto given fluctuations in the market are based largely on investor sentiment. VanEck forecasts ethereum prices will reach a base of around $11,800 by 2030. Its best-case bull scenario for 2030 is around $51,000.
