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When the energy boom took off in eastern Ohio, the general thought was that the Utica shale was an area primarily rich in natural gas.
Now oil production is also starting to surge.
Oil production in Ohio hit a record 27.8 million barrels in 2023, up 41% from 2022, according to researchers at the Levin College of Public Affairs and Education at Cleveland State University who have tracked production since 2011. In December alone, eastern Ohio oil wells pumped 93,000 barrels of crude, up one third from December 2022, according to federal data.
Ohio has become one of the top 10 oil producers in the country. It already was one of the biggest producers of natural gas.
“We always thought it was a gas play,” said Mike Chadsey, spokesman for the Ohio Oil & Gas Association. “Now it may very well become an oil play.’’
It’s been more than a decade since drilling took off in eastern Ohio, driven by a controversial technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking” that environmentalists have criticized.
The number of producing oil and gas wells in Ohio now tops 3,100, according to the Cleveland State researchers. Investment has been estimated at least at $105 billion.
Most of the money has been spent on drilling while the rest has been spent on such things as pipelines, transportation, storage, processing and natural gas-fired power plants.
Production has been concentrated in 18 eastern counties, but it has been the strongest in a handful of counties near the Ohio River − Belmont, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe, Carroll, Guernsey, Columbiana and Noble, according to Cleveland State’s reporting.
Even with the surge of oil production, the Utica continues to be a region dominated by natural gas, where 2.2 trillion cubic feet of gas was produced last year.
Crude made up about 7% of the state’s energy production last year, the researchers said.
Price and technology are key factors why more oil is being produced in Ohio.
Higher oil prices are making investments in the region profitable with oil prices climbing above $80 a barrel recently. Meanwhile, the warm winter hurt demand for natural gas and has been a drag on prices.
Natural gas produced in the Utica also trades at a discount because it’s hard to transport it from the region to market.
“Oil is more appealing,” said Mark Henning, research supervisor at the Energy Policy Center at the Levin School. “There’s a greater return on capital.”
Meanwhile, improved technology is allowing companies to access areas that in the past may have not been seen as productive as they are today, said Andrew Thomas, executive in residence at the Levin College.
“They can produce in places where they couldn’t produce 15 years ago with the technology they’ve developed,” he said.
The biggest jumps in oil productions are in Carroll and Guernsey counties. Jefferson, Belmont and Columbiana counties have also seen strong gains.
Carroll County had the most oil production last year in Ohio with 9.7 million barrels, Henning said. Guernsey County was second with 9.3 million barrels and Harrison County was third at 6.5 million barrels.
“There’s a lot more oil in Carroll than originally thought,” Thomas said.
Oil company EOG Resources, a newer company in the region, has told investors that it has accumulated leases on about 430,000 acres in the region.
“Now, just a reminder to the group, we’re investing at a $40 oil price,” EOG President Billy Helms said at a conference in January. “So we’re very comfortable with our investments and being able to generate the returns we’re wanting. And in today’s prices (about $81 a barrel Wednesday), those are monstrous returns. And that’s gone to help improve the financial performance of the company. So overall, that’s kind of how we think about it.”
EOG produced 1.3 million barrels of oil in 2023 in Ohio, with the highest producing wells in Harrison and Carroll counties, Henning said.
Encino Energy, Ascent Resources, Gulfport Energy, Rice Drilling, Southwestern Energy and Antero Resources account for 91% of the oil and gas production in the Utica in 2023, according to Cleveland State.
Production of oil and gas in the Utica is still in the early stages and could go on for decades, Thomas said.
Even areas where oil and gas companies have fracked can in theory be fracked again to reach additional supplies of oil and gas, he said.
“We really haven’t developed the oil part yet,” he said.
EOG’s Helms said the company continues to be excited about the results the wells are getting.
“As a company, we’ve collected a lot of technology and a lot of data, the ability to analyze wells in the past and the future, apply EOG’s technology to those productive metrics … and to understand what’s the uplift we could get from applying those new technologies and these new plays,” he said at the conference.
“And the Utica is a textbook example where we took a look at some of the older wells in that play, analyzed it with our approach, and determined what the uplift could be.”
mawilliams@dispatch.com
@BizMarkWilliams
Ariel Hermoni | Anadolu | Getty Images
Crude oil futures fell for a second day Tuesday as the recent rally paused while traders took stock of where the conflict in Middle East was heading.
The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery fell 48 cents, or 0.56%, to $85.95 a barrel. The June Brent futures contract lost 32 cents, or 0.35%, to $90.06 a barrel.
Crude prices settled lower Monday after Israel reduced its forces in Gaza over the weekend, suggesting the country’s military campaign might transition to a more limited phase.
But Barclays head of equity derivatives strategy Stefano Pascale said there are still upside risks to oil prices, particularly from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite the recent rally taking a pause.
“Further melt-up may reawaken inflationary concerns, derailing the equity rally,” Pascale told clients in a note Tuesday. Investors will be closely watching the March consumer price index reading on Wednesday to see how oil prices have impacted headline inflation.
Oil rallied more than 4% last week as Israel and Iran teetered on the brink of a direct confrontation after Tehran’s consulate in Damascus was destroyed in a missile attack.
“The conflicts in the Middle East increase the risk of a wider regional conflict, which could have implications for oil supply, but it is important to note that Iran has, so far, refrained from getting directly involved in the conflict and OPEC spare capacity is currently elevated,” Amarpreet Singh, energy analyst at Barclays, told clients Friday.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed late Monday to press on with an offensive against the southern city of Rafah on the Egyptian border, saying a date had been set for the operation.
“This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. It will happen —there is a date,” Netanyahu said in an address.
The U.S has warned Israel against launching an offensive against Rafah, where more than 1 million Palestinians who have fled fighting elsewhere in Gaza are taking refuge.
Ceasefire negotiations also appeared deadlocked in Cairo, with Hamas saying Israel’s proposal did not meet Palestinian demands.
WTI has gained 20.8% this year while Brent is up more than 17% as geopolitical tensions mount against the backdrop of rising demand and OPEC+ production cuts that are expected to push the market into a supply deficit this year. Barclays expects a 400,000 barrel per day deficit for 2024.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday after hopes diminished that negotiations between Israel and Hamas would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza amid concerns the lingering conflict could potentially disrupt supply from the key Middle East producing region.
Brent crude futures rose 14 cents to $90.52 a barrel by 0610 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was 10 cents higher at $86.53.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday an unspecified date had been set for Israel’s invasion of the Rafah enclave in Gaza.
That is “ending the hopes that briefly gripped the market yesterday that geopolitical tensions in the region might be easing,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst with IG, wrote in a note.
Hamas said early on Tuesday that Israel’s proposal it received from Qatari and Egyptian mediators did not meet any of the demands of Palestinian factions. But Hamas said it would study the proposal before responding to the mediators.
Without an end to the conflict, there is an elevated risk that it involves other countries in the region, especially Iran, a major Hamas backer and the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
An Iranian response to Israel’s suspected attack last week on its consulate in Syria “could drag the oil market into the conflict, after being largely unimpacted since Hamas’s attack on Israel,” ANZ analysts said in a client note.
Tehran said that it would take revenge after an airstrike killed two of its generals and five military advisors in Damascus, although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack.
“The positive geopolitical risk premium is indeed supporting the current medium-term uptrend phase of oil,” said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore.
Broader fundamentals are supportive of prices as well, the ANZ analysts said. India’s fuel demand hit a record high in the 2024 fiscal year driven by higher gasoline and jet fuel consumption, data showed on Monday. An improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity announced last week is also expected to boost fuel demand.
This week, the market will be watching inflation data due from the U.S. and China for further signals on the economic direction of the world’s top two oil consumers.
In the Americas, Mexico’s state oil company Pemex said it would reduce crude exports by 330,000 barrels per day so it can supply more to domestic refineries, cutting the supply available to the company’s U.S., European and Asian buyers by one-third.
Recap for April 5
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Recap for April 3
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– TASTE THE ORIGIN –
In recent days, we have witnessed the scene of domestic coffee prices soaring rapidly, continuously breaking decades-old records to reach a new peak of nearly 105,000 VND/kg. The price level hasn’t stopped here but is forecasted to continue rising in the future. High prices combined with a shortage of supply have pushed many coffee businesses onto the path of losses. The equation to escape losses has become more difficult and urgent than ever.
As of April 9, 2024, coffee prices are ranging between 104,000 and 104,500 VND/kg (See today’s coffee prices in each locality at Today’s coffee prices, view today’s accurate coffee prices). The beginning of April marks the peak period of the dry season in the Central Highlands provinces, with this year’s drought forecasted to be more severe than in previous years. Water levels and flows in rivers and streams are gradually decreasing and maintained below-average levels for many years. Thousands of hectares of crops are withering due to water shortages. The scarce rainfall, dry conditions, and water shortages during the dry months of 2024 will significantly impact the production activities and livelihoods of the people. Coffee production, which is already low, is further expected to decrease this year. Concerns about the supply have driven coffee prices to unprecedented levels.
The sudden surge in coffee prices has caught many businesses off guard because contracts are usually signed when coffee prices are low, without much fluctuation as seen currently. Businesses are forced to fulfill contracts they have already signed in a situation where there is no coffee to buy and prices are “skyrocketing.”
Many businesses are struggling to fulfill previously signed contracts
According to Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of Phuc Sinh Group – one of the leading coffee export companies in Vietnam, in the first three months of the season, export companies, foreign traders, and FDI often sell up to 50% of their production in advance and buy during the season. However, companies sell at low prices in advance, and when companies buy, coffee prices are continuously pushed up. In November 2023, prices ranged from 59,000 to 60,000 VND/kg, then in December 2023, it was 62,000 VND/kg and 69,000 VND/kg. By January 2024, it was 70,000 VND/kg and 82,000 VND/kg by early March, reaching 86,000 VND/kg and up to 94,500 VND/kg.
For each ton of coffee, companies have to bear losses of tens of millions of VND, while coffee contracts range from hundreds to thousands of tons. The level of damage is extremely high, incalculable, causing many small and medium-sized enterprises unable to sustain themselves.
Traders also face many risks when buying from farmers, and when farmers see high prices and refuse to deliver the goods they have signed contracts for, traders incur significant losses or bankruptcy, and they also lack financial resources to deliver to export companies or foreign companies for the contracts they have signed. Many exporters are demanding thousands or tens of thousands of tons they have already bought or even received deposits for but have not been delivered, facing mounting difficulties.
As manufacturing enterprises, they face even more difficulties such as low capital turnover. They have to increase various expenses, such as production costs, labor costs, bank loan interest costs, transportation costs, even double compared to traders, machinery depreciation costs, opportunity costs,…
A volatile market is the time when businesses need to change their procurement plans and strategies. To ensure the supply from farmers, businesses may have intensified their cooperation with farmers by investing in fertilizers, providing them with loans to cover living expenses as well as cultivation costs. By applying this method, Bao Anh company still ensures a supply of 10,000 tons per year for Vinh Hiep each year and partially meets the demand for other leading export businesses in Vietnam amid the broken coffee supply chain.
The surge in prices coupled with the risk of not being able to collect goods has put many businesses, especially small and medium-sized ones, in a dilemma. Supply chain integration is seen as a useful solution to help businesses overcome this situation.
Stay tuned to the News section for more useful information!
Related article:
– The rise in domestic prices pushes coffee businesses into a loss-making position
– The side effects of drinking coffee on an empty stomach in the morning
– Application of biochemical analysis in coffee quality testing
The price of platinum opened at $984.87 per ounce, as of 9 a.m. That’s up 4.12% from the previous day and down 0.29% from the beginning of the year.
The lowest trading price within the last day: $954.39 per ounce. The highest platinum spot price in the last 24 hours: $986.39 per ounce.
The chart below shows how the spot price of platinum is trending over the year.
Year to date, platinum is down 0.29%, as of 9 a.m. The 52-week high reached $1,135.49 on April 21, 2023, and the 52-week low dropped to $843.15 on Nov. 10, 2023.
The precious, silvery-colored metal is priced in U.S. dollars. This means that the fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar can impact its price.
The price of XPT/USD reflects the value of one ounce of platinum in U.S. dollars, and it is traded like traditional currency pairs. Because platinum trades occur globally, investors can also track the spot price of platinum in other currencies, such as XPT/EUR for euros and XPT/GBP for British pounds.
Factors that can influence the price of platinum include changes in demand, geopolitical events and tensions in major platinum-producing countries. Of course, investor opinion and speculation can also affect prices.
Platinum is one of four main precious metals investors can trade via physical bullion, exchange-traded products or futures contracts. Gold, silver and palladium spot prices are also updated 24/7 in various currencies.
Currently, platinum trades at $984.87 per ounce, as of 9 a.m., compared to gold, which trades at $2,349.44 per ounce. Year to date, platinum prices are down by 0.29% and gold prices are up by 13.70%.
“Historically, platinum has often been more expensive than gold due to its relative scarcity and unique properties. However, the price of platinum can fluctuate in response to changing market conditions,” said John Bergquist, president of Elysium Financial.
Political instability and supply disruptions in major platinum-producing regions like South Africa and Russia affect prices.
The silvery metal also tends to be a less reliable store of value than gold.
While historically, platinum has been pricier than gold, that flip-flopped briefly in August 2011. When looking at the gold-to-platinum price ratio, platinum was priced above gold from January 2013 until December 2014. Since then, gold has more than doubled its value compared to platinum prices.
Like any metal, the price of platinum can be volatile. Various factors affect it, the most significant being supply and demand dynamics. Other factors, such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in industrial and investment demand, can also impact the price of platinum.
At the start of the new millennium, the precious metal’s spot price was around $420. Fast-forward over 20 years, and the current price of platinum has more than doubled.
The spot price soared to new heights, trading in February 2008 at around $2,200 per troy ounce. In November of that year, the price returned to less than $1,000.
Platinum’s spot price has fluctuated between around $800 to $1,400 for the past decade, hovering around the $1,000 threshold on average.
Platinum prices today remain historically low. Prices dropped as low as $623.50 in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. While prices have recovered, platinum is nowhere near its all-time high of $2,213.20, set on March 3, 2008.
Futures contracts let investors speculate on the future price movements of an underlying asset like platinum.
These financial contracts represent an agreement between two parties to trade a set amount of platinum at a specified price at a future date. They can be settled by exchanging the physical commodity or cash in place of the commodity.
Futures contracts differ from spot prices in that futures contracts establish a future price whereas spot prices are for immediate delivery. These contracts can be fulfilled by trading the physical commodity or exchanging cash in place of the underlying asset. They are usually traded through an exchange.
The automotive industry creates the highest demand for platinum. Platinum is a key component in manufacturing catalytic converters, which are responsible for reducing vehicle emissions.
In addition to the automotive industry, platinum is widely used in the industrial industry to create medical products, nitric acid and glass. As the demand for these products rises, so does the price of platinum.
It is anticipated that platinum will play an essential role in the development of hydrogen technology. Platinum is used to produce carbon-free hydrogen from renewable energy.
“If hydrogen-based power meets expectations in the coming decade, then one could expect a material demand tailwind in platinum,” said Stash Graham, managing director of Graham Capital Wealth Management.
Precious metals such as platinum, gold and silver have long been used to diversify an investment portfolio.
When choosing investments, it is crucial to consider potential drawbacks. While there may be an increase in the demand for platinum, other factors may throw a wrench in the investment benefits.
When considering an investment, it is essential to consider your current holdings and individual financial goals.
Platinum is rarer than both silver and gold, which could make it attractive to investors seeking a scarce metal. This practice helps protect other holdings, such as stocks, in an economic downturn. Investing in platinum can help balance inflation and economic uncertainties.
Aussie shares are set to rise again on Wednesday after Wall Street ticked up modestly. At 8am AEDT, the ASX 200 index futures contract was pointing up by +0.4%.
Overnight, the S&P 500 rose by +0.14%, the blue chips Dow Jones index was down by -0.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed by +0.32%.
US treasury yields dropped -5bp from a four-month high ahead of the US inflation report tonight, suggesting traders are positioning themselves for a soft print.
Gold stocks will be in focus today after the bullion price touched briefly above US$2,380 an ounce, extending its rally to hit a new record.
To stocks, the start of the US Q1 earnings season gets underway in earnest on Friday, which will provide the next catalyst for the market.
Nvidia’s shares fell nearly -2% after Intel revealed a new version of its AI chip at its Vision event. Intel’s shares rose +1%.
Moderna jumped by +6% to a three-month high after the company revealed positive responses in its early-stage cancer vaccine developed with Merck.
Alphabet lifted 1.3% to a one-year high after announcing a new video-creation app, Google Vids, which also utilises AI.
Meanwhile, respected market commentator Mohamed El-Erian said Europe’s ECB could cut rates faster than the Fed Reserve.
“The ECB is going to signal quite strongly that June will be when they cut, something the Fed will not do,” El-Erian said, adding that USD currency could trade at par with the EUR when that happens.
The price of gold has risen over the past eight trading sessions, hitting a fresh record overnight.
At the time of writing, gold is trading at US$2,351.60 an ounce.
A note from Bank of America’s analysts say they project gold prices to jump to US$3,000 per ounce by 2025, buoyed by strong demand from central banks. The Chinese central bank, in particular, has amassed over 200 tonnes of the yellow metal in 2023 alone.
“And if the Fed ultimately starts cutting rates, investors should return to the market, also offsetting potentially lower Chinese investment demand as sentiment there improves and the economy accelerates.
“We had previously proposed a US$2,400/oz price estimate if the Fed cut rates in 1Q24; we now raise that and see gold rallying to US$3,000/oz by 2025,” said BoA’s note.
BoA is also sounding the alarm on a potential copper supply crisis, predicting that copper prices are expected to average US$10,750 per tonne in 2025, and US$12,000 per tonne in 2026 (copper currently trades at around US$9,411 per tonne).
“Tight copper mine supply is increasingly constraining refined production; the much-discussed lack of mine projects is finally starting to bite,” said BoA.
Gold price was up +0.53% to US$2,352.25 an ounce.
Oil prices came off another -1.3%, with Brent now trading at US$89.45 a barrel.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 5bp (bond prices higher) to 4.37%.
Iron ore 62% fe climbed further by +1.6% to US$104.33 a tonne.
The Aussie dollar lifted by +0.4% to US66.28.
Bitcoin meanwhile slumped -3.5% in the last 24 hours to US$69,236.
Kinatico (ASX:KYP)
During Q3FY24, Kinatico earned $2.5m in SaaS revenue, an increase of 73% on pcp. Annualised SaaS revenue is now more than $10m. SaaS revenue for the quarter comprised 36% of Kinatico’s total Q3 revenue of $7.0m, an increase of 0.5% on pcp.
Wildcat Resources (ASX:WC8)
Exploration drilling beneath the Leia deposit has discovered a thick lithium mineralised repetition named the “Luke Pegmatite”, with best intercepts of: 41.0m @ 1.0% Li2O from 267m. Meanwhile diamond drilling at Leia continues to return impressive new results including: 68.0m @ 1.4% Li2O from 337m.
Neurotech (ASX:NTI)
Nurotech announced the 54th and final patient has completed their last visit for the Phase II/III NTIASD2 clinical trial for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The trial recruited patients aged 8-17 (inclusive) with Level 2 (requiring substantial support) and Level 3 (requiring very substantial support) autism, who have now completed eight weeks of daily NTI164 treatment (the randomisation period of the trial).
Dart Mining (ASX:DTM)
Dart provided an update on field activities across the Dorchap Lithium Project in Northeast Victoria. Field reconnaissance of pegmatite targets highlighted by the LiDAR survey has been completed, with initial results received. Highlights include: Sample 70847 – 2m @ 2.35% Li2O – Boones North Dyke, and Sample 70840 – 5m @ 2.00% Li2O – Boones North Dyke.
Argenica Therapeutics (ASX:AGN)
Argenica has successfully dosed five patients in its acute ischaemic stroke Phase 2 clinical trial, representing the first cohort of patients to be reviewed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB), highlighting a promising early recruitment response to date. The patients, who presented to both the Royal Melbourne Hospital and Princess Alexandra Hospital emergency departments, were enrolled into the trial following meeting the inclusion criteria: a confirmed diagnosis of an acute ischaemic stoke caused by a large vessel occlusion (LVO) and were eligible for mechanical thrombectomy.
At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Neurotech is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images
Crude oil futures closed with a second straight loss Tuesday, taking a sliver of profits after hitting nearly six-month highs sparked by geopolitical risks and tight supply.
Talks for a ceasefire in the Gaza war continued, but oil’s losses were limited following reports that Israel and Hamas are still far from an agreement.
Citing rising geopolitical risks, Morgan Stanley analysts raised their Brent crude price forecast for Q2 by $4.50/bbl to $92 and for Q3 by $4/bbl to $94.
The bank said it sees tightness in Q2 and Q3 with OPEC supply restraints, some downside to Russia production, and a seasonal upswing in demand ahead.
Its assessment of market fundamentals remains the same, but “when it comes to geopolitical risk, however, even small probabilities can add several dollars to oil prices,” according to Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats.
Spot crude could hit $100/bbl this year if OPEC+ maintains its production discipline and continues to withhold crude from the global markets, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said.
In a supply constrained market with oil consumption set to grow by 1.9M bbl/day in 2024, a similar level to last year, oil at “$80-$100 feels a sensible range for the market given the OPEC control of inventories around the world,” Hardy told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland.
Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for May delivery finished -1.4% to $85.23/bbl, and front-month June Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed -1% to $89.42/bbl.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its average price estimate for Brent crude this year to $89/bbl from $87, which it said “reflects our expectation of strong global oil inventory draws during this quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks,” adding that it forecasts an average $90/bbl for Brent in Q2.
Extended OPEC+ output cuts “add to upward price pressure right at a time of the year when oil demand typically increases because of the spring and summer driving seasons in the Northern Hemisphere,” the EIA said.
Oil prices have climbed in recent weeks, spurred by concerns over supplies and geopolitical risks, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Analysts say the momentum could carry prices higher.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, has risen more than 20 percent since mid-December. It has jumped more than 10 percent over the past month alone, to around $90 per barrel. “The sentiment is really bullish,” said Viktor Katona, an analyst at Kpler, a commodities research firm.
Rising oil prices could make efforts by central banks to reduce inflation more challenging. In the United States, higher gasoline prices during the summer driving season would also be unwelcome for the Biden administration, which faces a difficult election in November. The average price at the pump has risen about 50 cents per gallon since early January, to around $3.70, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Market watchers note that a short-term retreat in prices, after such a rapid rise, is also possible. The oil price also remains below the peaks reached in 2022, when prices jumped well above $100 a barrel.
In 2023, strong growth in crude output from the United States, the world’s largest oil producer, and other countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries helped reassure markets that there would be enough oil to slake demand. Prices remained subdued for much of the year despite the threats posed by geopolitical tensions. Initially, markets largely shrugged off the risks posed by the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
But 2024 looks like a very different year. Demand has been stronger than some analysts expected. And a series of potentially disruptive events — along with production cuts by Saudi Arabia and its allies — have raised worries of a potential supply squeeze.
The most unsettling development was the killing of a group of Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders in an airstrike in Damascus, Syria, on April 1. Iran pledged to retaliate, raising fears that its actions could pull key exporters in the Persian Gulf into the conflict, which began with the Hamas attack on Israel in October.
“That’s always been the fear since Oct. 7, the direct confrontation between Iran, the U.S. and Israel,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The Middle East conflict has had little effect on oil supplies so far, Mr. Burkhard said, but markets will be on edge until they see how the face-off between Israel and Iran plays out.
The continuing effort by the group of oil producers known as OPEC Plus to limit oil supplies adds to the edginess. Largely orchestrated by Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, these production trims are removing around five million barrels a day, or potentially around 5 percent of supply, from the market.
There is always skepticism about whether OPEC will stick to its commitments, but it is dawning on the markets that these cuts may not be relaxed anytime soon unless prices rise substantially. “We don’t expect a formal increase out of OPEC Plus unless prices are above $100” a barrel, Mr. Burkhard said.
Instead, the Saudi-led group has focused on signaling its resolve. In March, several members announced the extension of production cuts through June. To drive the point home, OPEC Plus said in a news release on April 1 that two of its members, Iraq and Kazakhstan, had agreed to “compensate for overproduction.”
The Middle East is not the only potential source of disruption for oil markets. Russia has been making slow gains in its war with Ukraine, while Kyiv has figured out how to use drones and missiles to inflict significant damage on Russian oil infrastructure, at least temporarily reducing Russia’s ability to produce products like diesel and gasoline.
Ukraine’s aim is apparently to try to reduce the revenue Russia has available to fund the war, but the impact could be felt in world petroleum markets. Knocking out plants “tightens up” the global trade in energy products, said David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, a commodities research firm. “That is helping juice up crude prices as well.”
Analysts say a further lift may come in the summer, when seasonal demand is typically high as people take to cars and planes for vacation trips.
Tensions could come to a head in early June when the ministers from OPEC Plus plan to gather in Vienna to decide how much oil to put into the market. Some members of the group may want to see an increase in production, but the Saudis are likely to resist, analysts say.
Richard Bronze, the head of Energy Aspects, a research firm, said, “The Saudis are setting their policy on what they think is right for the oil market and their budget, and there is very little leverage that Washington has at present to get them to consider loosening.”
There was minor confirmation of strength since the breakout above the 50-Day MA, as the 8-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day today for the first time since mid-January, today. Also, yesterday the 20-Day MA was successfully tested as support for the first time since the price of natural gas rallied back above the 20-Day line on April 1.
That cleared the way for further strengthening, which we saw yesterday and then again today. What happens next will be key though as a failed breakout is always possible. A second daily close above the 50-Day line today would dampen that possibility. Then, we need to see signs of further strengthening if natural gas is going to have a chance at reaching higher targets.
A rally above the 2.01 (B) swing high will trigger a breakout of a double bottom bullish reversal pattern and a continuation of the current developing uptrend. At that point there would be a higher swing high that would follow the recent higher swing low (C). The first identified target from current levels is the completion of a small rising ABCD pattern at 2.08.
At that price the CD leg of the advance will match the price appreciation seen in the first leg up, marked A to B. Once there is price symmetry a potential resistance zone has been reached. There are also interim price targets on the way up to the double bottom target of 2.50.
The consolidation high following the large gap down in late-January is at 2.17. However, the more notable 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2.24. That price level takes on a somewhat greater significance since it is also match with prior support at the December swing low.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.