Markets had been bracing for high 2024 corn acreage, but USDA’s farmer-surveyed Prospective Plantings report found that 2024 corn acreage is going to see a bigger decline than what had previously been expected. Farmers only expect to plant 90.0 million acres of corn this spring, down nearly 5% (4.6 million acres) from year ago sowings. Chicago futures prices rose nearly 3% higher ($0.11-$0.13/bushel) immediately following the report on the smaller supply estimate as well as higher-than-expected December through March corn consumption.

Soybean acres are forecast to see a 2.9-million-acre annual increase, rising to 86.5 million acres planted in 2024. That’s going to be the fifth-largest planted soybean acreage in U.S. record books if farmers are able to hit that target in the coming weeks.

“I think it is important to remember that Thursday’s numbers are intentions, not an actual estimate of what will be planted,” according to Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “But as I’ve mentioned earlier, some of the trends are telling. The shift towards a 50-50 split for corn and soybean acreage is very apparent this year. Crop budgets for soybeans are currently holding on to very slight profits, while corn budgets are far into the red so growers that opted to wait until this spring to make acreage decisions likely found themselves favoring soybean acres over corn this year.”

The past three Farm Futures grower surveys in August 2023, January 2024 and March 2024 all pointed to a one-to-one acreage shift between corn and soybeans, says Holland, who added that she was a little surprised that today’s Prospective Plantings report did not reflect a similar dynamic. 

Planting intentions

USDA estimates that 2024 corn plantings will reach 90.025 million acres. That’s a 4-million-acre-plus drop compared to 2023’s footprint of 94.641 million acres. It was also noticeably lower than the average trade guess of 91.776 million acres and below the agency’s estimate of 91.000 acres offered at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

“Corn acres fell by 4.6 million while soybeans gained 2.9 million acres on the year,” Holland says. “Farm Futures’ guess was closer to a 2.3-million-acre shift between the two crops. I think that this shows that farmers are still not yet willing to go ‘all in’ on soybean acres ahead of construction wrapping up on crush plants across the Upper Midwest and are waiting for the demand to come closer to the farmgate.”

For soybeans, USDA is expecting 2024 plantings to reach 86.510 million acres. That’s nearly 3 million acres more than 2023’s final tally and very close to the average trade guess of 86.530 million acres. It was also almost 1 million acres lower than the agency’s estimate of 87.500 million acres offered at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

USDA thinks all-wheat plantings will reach 47.498 million acres for the 2023/24 season. That’s more than 2 million acres lower than the prior season’s footprint of 49.575 million acres and slightly above the average analyst estimate of 47.330 million acres. It’s also nearly half a million acres above the agency’s estimate made at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

“While Farm Futures survey respondents had indicated planting fewer spring wheat and durum acres relative to last year, USDA’s Prospective Plantings report found increases in farmer expectations of planted acreage for these crops,” according to Holland. “Spring wheat prices have been competing with soybeans in the Northern Plains over the past few months, so that wasn’t a surprise.”

But the uptick in canola, chickpeas, and edible beans and peas signaled that producers in the Northern Plains have plenty of other options than corn acres to glean profits this year, Holland also points out. Further south, rice and cotton are expected to see an upswing in planted acreage this year, she says.

“I was most surprised to see a downturn in hay acres expected to be harvested this year in Thursday’s report,” Holland says. “Not only did corn lose acres relative to last year, but small grain acreage is also expected to contract compared to 2023. Sorghum, oats, barley, and winter wheat acres were all reduced from last year, giving way to oilseeds and edible legumes.”

USDA will revisit these acreage numbers in June, when farmers will be surveyed based on what they actually planted – if they are finished by that time, Holland also notes, and with every subsequent USDA report throughout the growing season, these estimates will become more reliable.

“So, if you are still convinced that there are going to be more corn acres planted in 2024, there is a good chance you could see that materialize in the June 30 report,” Holland concludes.

Taking stock   

Corn ending stocks moved from 7,396,403 bushels through March 1, 2023, up to 8,347,255 bushels through March 1, 2024. That was slightly below the average trade estimate of 8.427,000 bushels. Of the total, 5.079 million bushels were stored on farm, with the remaining 3.268 million bushels stored off farm.

Soybean ending stocks also increased year-over-year, moving from 1,686,632 bushels through March 1, 2023, up to 1,845,079 bushels through March 1, 2024. That was also slightly higher than the average trade guess of 1,828,000 bushels. Of the total, 933,000 bushels were stored on farm, with the remaining 912,079 bushels stored off farm.

All-wheat ending stocks increased from 941,218 bushels a year ago up to 1,087,449 bushels through March 1, 2024. That was a bit above the average analyst estimate of 1,044,000 bushels. Of the total, 271,930 bushels were stored on farm, with the remaining 815,519 bushels stored off farm.

St Ali coffee roasters chief executive, Lachlan Ward, told the Herald Sun on Tuesday cafes need to “be brave and adjust up” or risk closing their doors.

“The way we are pricing coffee in Australia is not sustainable,” Mr Ward said.

“Unless Australian cafes start adjusting prices up and charging a fair price for what we are making, the independent cafe won’t exist in the future.”

A survey conducted by The Conversation last month of specialty venues across Australia’s capital cities found the average price of a small takeaway flat white is $4.78.

But, Mr Ward said, Aussies should be paying a minimum $5.50 for the beverage (at St Ali’s South Melbourne outpost, the dine-in cost of a regular flat white is $6.50).

“We have incredible operators and beautiful cafes closing down weekly, we can’t look at cutting prices. Cutting isn’t good for any business,” he said.

Given our national penchant for whinging about coffee prices, Mr Ward’s comments, unsurprisingly, proved divisive among consumers.

One man deemed his remarks “idiotic”, while some said they reflected why they now get their caffeine fix at home.

“LOL! I’m sure it’s delicious but when you grab a coffee from 7/11 or Maccas for change (for the few of us that still use coins) how long do you expect to stay in business? People are cutting costs wherever they can but clearly in your fantasy land you believe they will pay a fortune for your coffee. Good luck with that!” another reader wrote in to the Herald Sun.

A third said: “When having a daily coffee becomes a financial consideration rather than a casual enjoyment (due to cost) then sales will drop off quickly – this line is fast approaching.”

“Ordinary middle class people are being squeezed out of any luxuries by elites, government taxes and social engineering,” another complained.

“Consumers will determine the market price. Charge what you want. People will either buy it or not. But don’t complain when you price yourself out of the market.”
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Others, however, said the rising price is par for the course given “costs for cafes to make great coffee have risen exponentially”.

“Cafes are the canary in the coal mine. I don’t think the general population understand the financial squeeze most are under, and they are going broke in record numbers,” one pointed out.

As adjunct senior researcher at the University of South Australia, Emma Felton, wrote for The Conversation, “given the quality of our coffee and its global reputation, it shouldn’t surprise us if we’re soon asked to pay a little bit more for our daily brew”.

“By international standards, Australian coffee prices are low. No one wants to pay more for essentials, least of all right now. But our independent cafes are struggling,” she said.

“By not valuing coffee properly, we risk losing the internationally renowned coffee culture we’ve worked so hard to create, and the phenomenal quality of cup we enjoy.”

One of the key factors keeping coffee prices low in Australia, Dr Felton said, is “consumer expectation”.

“For many people coffee is a fundamental part of everyday life, a marker of liveability. Unlike wine or other alcohol, coffee is not considered a luxury or even a treat, where one might expect to pay a little more, or reduce consumption when times are economically tough. We anchor on familiar prices,” she said.

“Because of this, it really hurts cafe owners to put their prices up. In touch with their customer base almost every day, they’re acutely aware of how much inflation can hurt … But specialty cafes face much higher operating costs, and when they’re next to a commodity-grade competitor, customers are typically unwillingly to pay the difference.”

Melbourne Coffee Academy director Charles Skadiang echoed the sentiment in a March interview with Yahoo Finance, pointing to the cost of beer in Australia increasing with indexation.

Mr Skadiang noted there’s far more skill involved in producing a high-quality coffee than pouring a pint.

“The thought of paying $7 for a cup of coffee is outrageous for a lot of people,” he said.

“But the amount of work that goes into it, you’ve got a skilled barista to train someone up to make a great coffee, it takes a lot of time.”

The OPEC+ group is firmly back in control of the oil market and has the power to have it extremely tight in the second half of the year should it choose to do so, industry executives and hedge fund managers say.

The market is growing increasingly bullish on oil, expecting robust global demand growth and supply constraints, including OPEC and Russia’s production cuts, to push prices even higher in the summer.    

With Brent oil prices breaking above $90 a barrel, there is room for further upside amid tighter markets and heightened geopolitical risks, investment banks say, not ruling out $100 oil this year.

The trajectory of oil prices over the next year is largely in the hands of the OPEC+ alliance of the top Middle Eastern producers and Russia, according to Sebastian Barrack, head of commodities at hedge fund giant Citadel, which had $61 billion in investment capital as of April 1.

The OPEC+ group has “definitely regained control” of the market, Barrack said at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, this week.

If the alliance decides in early June to keep its current cuts after the end of the first half, we could see an “extremely tight” oil market in the second half of the year, Citadel’s executive said, adding that the timing of OPEC+’s potentially eased cuts and their volume “will define where prices go in the next 12 months.” Related: OPEC+ Faces Fork in the Road

Right now, prices are going up, as geopolitical concerns linger in the Middle East, demand holds strong and could turn out stronger than expected, and supply and infrastructure issues hold back production and exports, from Mexico to Russia.

Top traders and forecasters, as well as investment banks, have upgraded their price and demand forecasts in recent weeks.

Oil prices are set to trade in the range between $80 and $100 per barrel this year, Russell Hardy, chief executive at Vitol Group, said at the FT summit this week.

The world’s largest independent oil trader also expects robust global oil demand growth in 2024, at around 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) higher than in 2023, Hardy said.

If this forecast pans out, this year’s growth in oil consumption will not be too far off the bumper increase in demand in 2023.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2024 and 2025 forecasts of global oil consumption by between 400,000 bpd and 500,000 bpd, due to a revision of historical data for 2022 and to the “current market dynamics,” the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley sees heightened geopolitical risk pushing Brent prices to $94 per barrel in the third quarter as the bank lifted its price forecast by $4 a barrel compared to its previous projection. Last month, Morgan Stanley had already hiked its third-quarter oil price forecast by $10 per barrel, to $90, on the back of expected tighter markets in the summer.

In recent weeks, banks, including JP Morgan, have said that oil prices could hit $100 per barrel by the end of the summer. However, demand destruction could prevent prices from reaching triple digits, JP Morgan says.  

Still, analysts and industry executives believe that OPEC+ would reverse at least part of the cuts if prices run up to $100 as it would look to avoid demand destruction, stronger response to high prices from U.S. shale, and a potential loss of longer-term demand for OPEC+ crude.

If OPEC+ rolls over the cuts beyond June, “we will see a level of tightness in the market that will be very constraining to the market, and high prices will have to go and help destroy demand to solve that problem,” Citadel’s Barrack said at the FT Commodities Global Summit.  

As tempting as it may sound for OPEC to sell oil at $100 a barrel, the cartel may not be willing to risk another inflation shock that could cripple demand. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — Two Texas-based natural gas companies are being sued by Oklahoma, which alleges they fraudulently reduced gas supplies to send prices soaring during Winter Storm Uri, making huge profits while thousands shivered across the state.

The lawsuits are Oklahoma’s first against natural gas operators over earnings during the 2021 storm. The suits were filed against Dallas-based ET Gathering & Processing, which acquired Enable Midstream Partners in 2021, and Houston-based Symmetry Energy Solutions.

Both lawsuits seek actual and punitive damages, as well as a share of any profits that resulted from wrongdoing. Oklahoma’s Republican attorney general, Gentner Drummond, said his office intends to pursue additional litigation against other companies that may have engaged in market manipulation.

“I believe the level of fraud perpetrated on Oklahomans during Winter Storm Uri is both staggering and unconscionable,” Drummond said in a statement. “While many companies conducted themselves above board during that trying time, our analysis indicates that some bad actors reaped billions of dollars in ill-gotten gains.”

A Symmetry spokesperson said in a statement that the company “adamantly denies the unfounded allegations in the lawsuit, which it will vigorously defend.” A message seeking comment left with ET was not immediately returned. The lawsuits were filed in Osage County, Oklahoma.

The devastating storm sent temperatures plummeting across the country and left millions of people without power.

Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach filed a similar lawsuit in federal court in December against a natural gas marketer operating in that state. In Texas, which was also hit hard by the deadly storm, the electric utility Griddy Energy reached a settlement with state regulators over crushing electric bills its customers received.

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

• Crude oil markets have been rather quiet during the Tuesday trading session, but I think that makes a lot of sense considering that the Consumer Price Index numbers come out on Wednesday.
• Even though it’s not a direct oil related number, it does give you an idea as to what the Federal Reserve might do.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market currently sits just above the $85 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying attention to. This was also an area where we had seen significant resistance previously, so I think it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see it come into the picture for potential support. If we were to break down below there, and perhaps more importantly, the Monday candlestick, then we could get a little bit of a deeper correction, perhaps sending the West Texas Intermediate market down to the $82.50 level. After that, then you have the $80 level where the 50-Day EMA currently resides, which I believe is the “floor in the market” at the moment. Buying dips at this point continue to work.

• 

Brent

Brent, or “UK Oil”, continues to look bullish in general, as we had formed a hammer during the Monday session, and then are just simply sitting at the $90 level on Tuesday, suggesting that perhaps we are able to hang on to gain without much concern. Brent also has a lot of the same influences that the WTI market has, so you need to be paying attention to all of the usual suspects.

The biggest one of course is the supply and demand issue, which is starting to show supply struggling to keep up a bit. However, we also need to pay attention to the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, as they will more likely than not come into the fray as well. After that, then you have to keep in mind that central banks around the world cutting interest rates will drive demand higher for energy as industry kicks off again. In other words, it’s very difficult to be a seller of oil. Buying on the dips will continue to be the way forward.

Ready to trade WTI/USD? Here are the best oil trading brokers to choose from. 

The price of gas is displayed at a gas station on January 23, 2023 in Miami, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Crude oil futures fell on Thursday as worries about inflation overshadowed fears of a potential Iranian strike on Israel for the moment.

The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery lost 74 cents, or 0.86%, to $85.47 a barrel. The June Brent futures contract fell 50 cents, or 0.55%, to $89.97 a barrel.