Amid correction in the bullion metal prices, after hotter-than-expected US inflation and PPI print, the stock market and decentralized digital currency market have also fallen under the bears’ grip. Anuj Gupta, Head — Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities talks to Asit Manohar of Mint and unveils triggers that may lend support to the falling gold rates today. The HDFC Securities expert also discussed the risk-reward ratio available in the current bullion market. Below are the edited excerpts:
Gold prices have retraced from the recent all-time high. Do you see a bounce back in the near term?
I believe that in the near term, gold price may consolidate in an upper-end range following mixed global cues. The disappointing US inflation data has hit expectations for a near-term US Fed interest rate cut. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical unrest and weakness in the Eurozone and Chinese economies is expected to provide support to falling gold prices. Apart from this, global central banks across world are buying gold, which may lend support to the precious yellow metal price.
As the US Fed interest rate is in the market’s focus, what is your expectation from the central bank of America?
After the hotter-than-expected US inflation data, the US Fed is currently in a dilemma over interest rate cuts. I believe that the US Fed may remain data-dependent for a possible US Fed interest rate cut. As per the CME Fed fund tool, swap markets are now indicating a 55% chance of a US Fed interest rate cut in June, down from 67% a week ago. So, chances are high that the US Fed may delay interest rate cuts until July.
How do you look at the risk-reward ratio in gold and silver prices after a rebound in US dollar rates?
Gold price has surged more than 5 percent in the last two weeks. So, gold investors are advised to wait for a 2 percent to 3 percent correction from current gold and silver prices. The disappointing US inflation data for February 2024 may force the US Fed to keep key interest rates elevated, which spurred a rally in the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, both negatives for gold.
Surprisingly, gold, equity, and bitcoins are moving in the same direction. Any specific reason?
It’s liquidity and momentum that is driving all three assets together. Separate factors like soaring demand for Bitcoin ETFs are another reason for Bitcoin prices following gold prices and stock market trends.
Crude oil price on MCX has ascended to a 4-month high. What is fueling oil prices these days?
Following geopolitical tension and demand-supply constraints, crude oil prices recently surged to a fresh year high. OPEC countries reducing production has further squeezed supply in recent times. So, investors increased their net long position in WTI crude oil.
What are the triggers that are expected to dictate gold and silver prices in the near term?
The US Fed interest rate is expected to dictate bullion prices in the near term. Apart from this, further escalation of geopolitical unrest, and political uncertainty, may fuel demand for gold in the future market.
In the medium to long-term perspective or say by the end of September 2024, I see the Comex spot gold price rally towards $2250 and $2300 levels. On MCX, I see gold rates around ₹67,000 to ₹67,500 levels.
Silver rate today is in a broader range of $20 to $27 per ounce. Silver price may become bullish once it gives a breakout above the $27 level on a closing basis. I would like to add that the downside in the MCX silver rate today looks limited.
Gold and silver investors have various options available in today’s market. Active investors can take position in the futures market whereas passive investors may invest in mutual funds and ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds).
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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With another potential “Greenslide” in Brisbane, numerous mayors running unopposed, and big pre-poll numbers — voting in local government elections has just officially closed across Queensland.
More than 1.8 million votes have been cast today so far, according to the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ), amid reports of long wait times at many polling stations.
There have been complaints about long queues to vote at polling booths across Brisbane, Logan, Ipswich and the Gold and Sunshine coasts.
Many voters told the ABC that the ECQ appeared to be understaffed at many polling stations, with some people saying they had decided to give up and “cop the fine”.
Voters queue at the Brisbane City Council election.(ABC News)
The ABC has been told some polling booths also ran out of ballot papers.
An ECQ spokesperson said queuing times varied “with most queue times reported to be 15 minutes or less”.
“Our team has confirmed we were required to replenish ballot papers at two polling booths this afternoon, and that ballot papers were securely delivered before stock was depleted at a small number of other booths,” the spokesperson said.
“Staffing is allocated to each booth according to expected voter turnout, which is analysed using data from recent Queensland and federal elections.”
But Sunshine Coast locals said the wait time was about an hour at Mooloolaba State School polling booth for most of the day.
Gold Coast resident David Curran said he waited just over an hour to cast his vote at Burleigh Waters at Caningeraba State School this afternoon.
At 5.55pm, the queue was still estimated to be at least 45 minutes long. People who arrived before 6pm were still allowed to vote after the official closing time.
Sunshine Coast Council mayoral candidate John Connolly said the stream of voters had been constant.
“I’ve been here since six o’clock this morning — it’s been flat out all day.”
Meanwhile, Gold Coast resident David Curran said he waited just over an hour to cast his vote at Burleigh Waters at Caningeraba State School this afternoon.
Mr Curran said it was the longest he’s ever had to wait to vote.
“I think the system needs to change, that’s just way too long — it started to rain,” he said.
Live updates
When will we know who won the council elections?
By Bridget Judd
Polling booths close at 6pm, and the results will trickle in shortly after. According to Queensland’s electoral commissioner Pat Vidgen, that’s when the “unofficial count” begins.
“Where just the first preferences are looked at and counted and we would expect that by around 7pm, on our website, the votes will start being shown on that and being published.”
That’ll happen through the night until about 11pm, which Mr Vidgen says “will give a good indication on where the first preferences are falling.”
There’s been long lines to vote throughout the day.(ABC News: Jessica Lamb)
That’s where we’ll leave today’s live coverage, but before we go, I can see some of your questions coming in…
In suspense
Will there be a live results page/blog like the federal/state elections? After all BCC alone has a comparative population!
There surely is — you can follow the live electoral results on the ABC Queensland homepage from 6pm.
Labor and the Greens are hoping to snatch Enogerra from the LNP
By Bridget Judd
Alex Brewster is at Newmarket in Brisbane’s north-west in the ward of Enogerra.
ABC reporter Alex Brewster has the latest on Queensland’s council election from Enoggera.
Alex: It’s held by the LNP’s Andrew Wines, who has done so since 2008.
However, his margin was reduced to just 1.8% at the last election, that’s why Labor and the Greens especially believe they’ve got a real shot at snatching it.
If Councillor Wines’s primary vote was to fall, his chances at retaining the ward are slim, even with optional preferential voting.
Rising cost of living, crime and housing front and centre for voters in Townsville
By Bridget Judd
Rachael Merritt is in Townsville, where long-serving mayor Jenny Hill is hoping for her fourth term in office.
Rachael: The rising cost of living, crime and housing shortages are the main issues on the minds of voters in Townsville as they head to the polls today.
Long-serving Mayor Jenny Hill is hoping for her fourth term in office, and she’s feeling confident she has the support of the community to return her to the role.
She’s facing competition from two independents, Troy Thompson and Harry Patel.
The other issues on the minds of voters today is road quality, ensuring parks and recreational spaces are preserved, and reinvigorating Townsville CBD.
It’s shaping up to be an interesting race in Logan in the state’s south-east
By Bridget Judd
Arianna Levy has been out at Park Ridge State High, where hundreds of people have been filtering in and out to cast their vote.
ABC report Arianna Levy has the latest on the Queensland council elections from Logan.
Arianna: They’re voting for their local mayor, as well as their local councillors — and it is an interesting race, it’s between John Raven and Brett Raguse.
Now, John Raven has run on a platform of social media, advocating for the fact that he is one of the youngest mayors to be in this race. He says that he’s a young mayor for a young city.
Logan [is] one of the fastest growing most diverse and youngest population across the country.
So what are some of the issues front and centre for voters in the council electorate?
One voter, Hayley, says crime and facilities are key issues for her in the council election.
“Basically the stigma of the crime, the facilities provided and just the reputation basically,” one voter, Hayley, says.
“Logan can do better and hopefully it will.”
Our reporters across Queensland will join us with the latest on the council elections
By Bridget Judd
As we’ve heard today, more than 1.8 million Queenslanders have cast their votes in today’s local government elections, with polls set to close at 6pm (AEST).
(ABC News)
Some people have turned out in the spirit of democracy… others just want a sausage (no judgement).
Our reporters across the state will bring you the latest shortly.
In Brisbane, there are predictions of a ‘Greenslide’, with incumbent LNP Adrian Schrinner warning voters of the possibility of a Labor-Green Coalition.
Almost 30 per cent of Queensland votes are in Brisbane — the country’s largest local government authority and the only council where party affiliations are on the ballot paper.
The Liberal National Party (LNP) has dominated Brisbane City Council for almost 20 years, currently holding 19 of the city’s 26 wards.
Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner is vying for a second term amid potential for the Greens to take their ward count from one to five.
In his final pitch today, Mr Schrinner asked voters to “back his team” to avoid a “Green-Labor coalition”.
An LNP polling booth poster warning against a Labor-Greens coalition.(ABC News: Matt Eaton)
“It’s important that we keep Brisbane growing,” he said.
“And so today it’s now clear that there’s a real risk of a Labor-Green coalition or a Green-Labor coalition running City Hall after this weekend.”
The Labor party currently holds only five wards and is led by first-time candidate and lawyer Tracey Price.
Ms Price, who said she would be making a report to police after 40 of her signs were defaced, said Brisbane was “ready for change”.
“I want to restore all the essential services to the suburbs and make sure that the residents get every dollar that they deserve spent on their suburbs in and around where they are,” she said.
Labor Brisbane candidate Tracey Price, Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner and Greens candidate Jonathan Sriranganathan(ABC News)
Former Greens councillor for the Gabba ward, Jonathan Sriranganathan, now running for Brisbane lord mayor, said he was hearing from a lot of people who will cast their first vote for the Greens today.
“We are expecting big swings, and in a lot of wards.
“West End has always been a really safe area and will do well. But in wards like Paddington, Walter-Taylor and even Enoggera ward, the Greens support is surging like we haven’t seen before so it’s feeling pretty good.”
Councillor charged with murder makes bid for re-election
Further south on the Gold Coast, LNP councillor Ryan Bayldon-Lumsden manned the booths at Arundel State School with a GPS ankle bracelet under his jeans.
The 32-year-old — accused of killing his stepfather last August — accepted voluntary suspension with full pay from the state government and is second on the ballot.
Ryan Bayldon-Lumsden says he plans to fight a possible suspension if re-elected. (ABC News: Mackenzie Colahan)
His lawyers have indicated he will fight the charge at trial.
“Voters always get it right, people can have their say and that’s what democracy is all about,” he said.
“The will of the people should be respected. If people decide they want me as their representative I will make sure that’s the case.”
If voters re-elect Mr Bayldon-Lumsden, Premier Steven Miles has said he would likely be suspended again.
Mr Bayldon-Lumsden said he would challenge any further suspension.
“The premier is the one who advised me that I am able to run for re-election,” he said.
Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate said on Saturday he was “humbly buoyant” after talking to voters.
Gold Coast mayor Tom Tate and former mayor Gary Baildon handing out how to votes at Surfers Paradise. (ABC News: Mackenzie Colahan)
“I talk to people in the line and you get a feeling,” he said.
“I make phone calls to booth capitals from all over the city and the feedback has been coming in nicely.
“I’m not getting abuse like last time. There were some weirdos last time.”
Fifteen mayors running unopposed
Queensland has 77 councils. Residents in 15 of those council areas won’t have to vote for a mayor because their mayors are running unopposed.
They include Moreton Bay, the third largest in the state with a population of around half a million, led by Mayor Peter Flannery.
Balonne Shire Mayor Samantha O’Toole is unopposed.
Also unopposed is Queensland’s longest serving mayor of 33 years, John Wharton, of Richmond Shire Council, as well as Lawrence Springborg in Goondiwindi, Ramon Jayo in Hinchinbrook and Samantha O’Toole in Balonne.
Logan Mayor Darren Power has stepped down after 26 years in office, four serving as mayor, with incumbent councillor Jon Raven, former federal MP Brett Raguse and independent James Reid all vying to replace him.
Lawrence Springborg will continue on as mayor in Goondiwindi unopposed. (ABC News: Stephen Cavenagh)
The Sunshine Coast will have its first new mayor since 2012 after Mark Jamieson retired.
Six candidates have nominated for the role, including former television news presenter Rosanna Natoli and incumbent councillor Jason O’Pray.
Controversial Redlands mayor Karen Williams has opted not to run for her fourth successive term, with former federal MP Andrew Laming, Jos Mitchell, and Cindy Corrie on the ballot to replace her.
Ipswich Mayor Theresa Harding greeting voters headed to the ballot box. (ABC News: Jemima Burt)
In Ipswich, Mayor Teresa Harding is one of six candidates for the top job, including current councillor Sheila Ireland and former councillor David Martin, who were both previously sacked from council.
Speaking at the ballot box today, she said people don’t want to go back to the “dark old days of corruption and dodgy deals”.
“We are now a council that’s the most open and transparent in Australia … so I think the people just want to make sure that we move forward.”
When will we know who won?
Polling booths opened at 8am and close at 6pm, and results will trickle in shortly after.
“Our staff go behind doors with scrutineers and start the counting process,” Queensland’s electoral commissioner Pat Vidgen said.
“We call it the unofficial count where just the first preferences are looked at and counted and we would expect that by around 7pm, on our website, the votes will start being shown on that and being published.
“That’ll happen through the night until about 11pm which will give a good indication on where the first preferences are falling.”
He said the “official” count then starts on Sunday, when ECQ staff begin to work through preferences, which can take some time.
“It depends on how clear-cut the results are but our expectation is that certainly in that first week we’ll be making a lot of declarations.
“Certainly by Easter our aim is, which will be two weeks after the election, for the election to be concluded.”
Stock market vs gold price vs Bitcoin price: After climbing to a new lifetime high, shar selling was witnessed across sectors in the Indian stock market. However, to the surprise of the investors, gold price and Bitcoin prices too witnessed selling pressure in the week gone by. According to experts, the Indian stock market witnessed selling pressure due to the ‘shar test’ being suggested by the mutual funds’ body AMFI to the AMCs after the market regulator SEBI raised concern over the froth building up in the small and mid-cap stocks. They said that global cues also went negative after the hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI print for February 2024. This dragged key benchmark indices, which include large-cap quality stocks as well. The disappointing US inflation data put down the probability of a near-term US Fed interest rate cut that dragged gold prices. They said that the decentralized digital currency market lacked a clear outlook after the weak macroeconomic developments amid rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East. This triggered profit booking in Bitcoin holdings.
Triggers for gold, equity, and Bitcoins
On reasons for the synchronized movement of the stock market, gold, and Bitcoin prices, Sathvik Vishwanath, Co-Founder & CEO at Unocoin said, “Historically, these assets have often moved independently of each other due to their different characteristics and drivers. Gold is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset that is sought after in times of economic uncertainty or inflation. Stocks, on the other hand, represent ownership stakes in companies and are influenced by factors such as company earnings, economic growth, and investor sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency, has been touted as both a store of value and a speculative asset. However, in recent market conditions, observers have noted a surprising correlation between these seemingly disparate assets.”
“Several factors may contribute to this phenomenon. For example, macroeconomic events such as central bank policy, geopolitical tensions, and the global economic outlook could affect investor behavior across different asset classes. Additionally, the rise of algorithmic trading and the increasing integration of financial markets could strengthen correlations between assets. In addition, the narrative surrounding inflation concerns and the search for alternative stores of value amid unprecedented monetary stimulus may drive investors toward gold, stocks, and bitcoin at the same time. Whatever the underlying reasons, understanding the dynamics of this convergence could provide valuable insights for investors navigating today’s complex financial environment,” the Unocoin expert added.
Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex said, “Gold, Equities, and Bitcoin are all moving together because of several different reasons. However, one common thing was that investors were anticipating the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. But when US inflation rose to 3.2% which is higher than expected, it affected these assets as the market tends to react much to unexpected things. Before the US inflation data came out, all these assets were doing well. While short-term fluctuations may occur, investors tend to return to the market after assessing the broader economic landscape.”
Asked about the reasons that forced Bitcoins to follow equity and gold price movement, Anuj Gupta, Head — Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities said, “It was liquidity and momentum that fueled these assets together. Bitcoin prices followed an uptrend after the boost in demand for Bitcoin ETF as the majority of the global central banks were buying gold. This triggered demand for Bitcoin in the decentralized digital currency market. However, hotter-than-expected US CPI data followed by the weak PPI print put a dent on the US Fed interest rate hike buzz in the near term.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Gold Basin Resources
Corporation (the “Company” or “Gold Basin”) –
(TSXV:GXX
)
,
(
OTC:GXXFF)
today
announced the appointment of Anthony Balic and Michael Povey to the
board of directors of the Company (the ”
Board
“), with Mr. Balic being
appointed as an independent director. In connection with the
appointments of Messrs. Balic and Povey, Jonathan Lotz, John Robins
and Jim Paterson have resigned as directors of the Company.
Following the reconstitution of the Board, the Board is now
comprised of four (4) directors, of which two (2) are independent.
Colin Smith, Chief Executive Officer of the Company,
commented,
“We are
excited to welcome Michael Povey back to Gold Basin as a director,
and also welcome Anthony Balic to the Company. We are appreciative
of the contributions of Messrs. Lotz, Robins, Paterson, and the
Discovery Group and wish all parties well in their future
endeavours.”
The Company expects that the newly appointed directors,
along with incumbent directors Charles Straw and Grant Duddle, will
all stand for election at the upcoming annual general and special
meeting of shareholders of the Company.
Anthony Balic – Director
Mr. Balic is a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA)
and is a Principal of Katuni Capital Corp., a private company
providing corporate finance, accounting and capital advisory services
to private and public companies. Mr. Balic serves as a director
and/or officer to a number of junior public companies in the natural
resource sector and was previously a senior manager at Deloitte LLP,
where he specialized in assurance and advisory services for publicly
listed mining companies based both in Canada and the United
States.
Michael Povey – Director
Mr. Povey is a mining engineer, who previously served
as the Chief Executive Officer and a director of the Company, with
over 40 years of worldwide experience in the resource sector in a wide
range of commodities. He has held senior management positions in
various public companies including Rio Tinto and Anglo American, with
surface and underground mining operations in Africa, North America,
and Australia. Over the past 20 years, Mike has held positions as
Chairman, Managing Director, and Technical Director of several ASX and
AIM listed companies where he has led project acquisitions,
exploration programs, JV negotiations and equity raisings. Mike is a
Chartered Engineer and a Member of the Australian Institute of Mining
and Metallurgy and holds a number of Certificates of Competency,
including a West Australian Mine Managers Certificate.
APPOINTMENT OF NEW CHIEF FINANCIAL
OFFICER
The Company also announces the appointment of Mark Lotz
as the Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary of the Company.
Mr. Lotz holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with
a joint major in Economics. He is a Chartered Professional
Accountant with 26 years of post-qualification experience and has
extensive experience in the capital markets across a broad
cross-section of industries including SaaS (software as a service),
manufacturing, mining, technology, and financial services. Mr. Lotz
has held CFO and other senior financial positions with several
well-known mining and exploration companies. He has also served as a
senior executive officer in the securities brokerage industry. Prior
to that, he served as a securities regulator, following his tenure at
Coopers & Lybrand where he focused on the mining and tax
sectors.
Mr. Lotz replaces Monty Sutton as Chief Financial
Officer and Jacqueline Collins as Corporate Secretary, respectively.
ABOUT
GOLD
BASIN
RESOURCES
CORPORATION
Gold Basin Resources Corporation is
advancing the 42 km
2
Gold
Basin Project, located in the tier one mining jurisdiction of Mohave
County, Arizona. Gold Basin is accessible year-round via a
1.5-hour-drive on I-93 Highway southwest of Las Vegas, and high-power
electrical lines from the Hoover Dam crosscut the southern Project
area. The immediate focus of Gold Basin’s highly experienced
technical team is to expand and delineate multiple at-surface oxide
gold deposits and prove the project’s district-scale potential. For
further information, please visit the Company’s web site at:
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its
Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies
of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy
or accuracy of this news release.
FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS:
This news release contains forward-looking statements
and forward-looking information (collectively, “forward looking
statements”) within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S.
securities legislation. All statements, other than statements of
historical fact, included herein are forward-looking statements.
Although the Company believes that such statements are reasonable,
it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be
correct. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by
words such as: “believes”, “expects”,
“anticipates”, “intends”, “estimates”,
“plans”, “may”, “should”,
“would”, “will”, “potential”,
“scheduled” or variations of such words and phrases and
similar expressions, which, by their nature, refer to future events or
results that may, could, would, might or will occur or be taken or
achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual
results, performance or achievements of the Company to differ
materially from any future results, performance or achievements
expressed or implied by the forward looking information. Such risks
and other factors include anticipated business plans, direction and
timing of future activities of the Company, the ability of the Company
to obtain sufficient financing to fund its business activities and
plans, delays in obtaining governmental and regulatory approvals
(including of the TSX Venture Exchange), permits or financing, changes
in laws, regulations and policies affecting mining operations,
currency fluctuations, title disputes or claims, environmental issues
and liabilities, risks relating to epidemics or pandemics such as
COVID–19, including the impact of COVID–19 on the Company’s
business, financial condition and results of operations, changes in
laws, regulations and policies affecting mining operations, title
disputes, the inability of the Company to obtain any necessary
permits, consents, approvals or authorizations, the timing and
possible outcome of any pending litigation, environmental issues and
liabilities, and risks related to joint venture operations, and other
risks and uncertainties disclosed in the Company’s continuous
disclosure documents. All of the Company’s Canadian public
disclosure filings may be accessed via www.sedarplus.ca and readers
are urged to review these materials.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on
forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake any
obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements in this
news release or incorporated by reference herein, except as otherwise
required by law.
Copyright (c) 2024 TheNewswire – All rights reserved.
ANZ highlights the unexpected resilience of physical gold demand despite the surge in prices, attributing steady global consumption levels to strong interest from China and India. The report discusses the potential limits to further demand growth due to the prolonged period of elevated prices.
Key Points:
Steady Global Consumption: Global gold demand remained consistent at 3,057t in 2023, closely aligning with the decade’s average despite record-high prices.
China’s Strong Demand: A 16% year-on-year increase in China’s gold consumption to 959t in 2023, driven by pent-up demand and a shift towards value preservation amidst economic uncertainties.
India’s Sustained Interest: India’s gold consumption slightly declined in 2023 but stayed near pre-pandemic levels, supported by a growing affluent population.
Price Sensitivity and Demand Outlook: While physical demand has shown resilience, the continued high price levels may challenge further growth in demand, especially in key markets like China and India.
Conclusion:
Despite the challenges posed by sustained high gold prices, physical demand for gold has shown remarkable resilience, particularly in major markets such as China and India. ANZ suggests that while this trend demonstrates the underlying strength and appeal of gold as an investment, the potential for significant demand growth may be curtailed unless there’s a notable change in price trends. Demand is expected to remain stable, reflecting the balance between value preservation motives and price sensitivity among consumers.
Gold today is down $4 to $2156.
Forexlive
Gold daily
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Gold prices remained stable on Friday, poised to register their initial weekly decline in four weeks. Spot gold remained relatively steady at $2,159.26 per ounce. Bullion appeared to be on track for a weekly decline of 0.8%, marking its first such decrease since mid-February. This comes after reaching a record peak of $2,194.99 per ounce the previous week.
Investor expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut in June were dampened following data throughout the week indicating rising price pressures. The pressure on gold stemmed from increasing concerns surrounding an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week. This apprehension was further fueled by stronger-than-anticipated signals of both consumer and producer inflation, marking the third consecutive month of such robust readings.
Now, the prices of the yellow metal will now depend to next week’s Fed meeting, where there will be an updated dot plot, and the market is going into the meeting with expectations of a hawkish Fed, as reflected in rising bond yields and a rising dollar index.
“Apart from the inflation print the other data’s have been indicating a mixed picture of the U.S. economy with manufacturing/ services activity slowing down, unemployment rate ticking up to rising retail sales and lower unemployment claims – keeping sentiments subdued. The Fed fund futures traders have trimmed bets of rate cut in June to 63-64% as compared to above 75% last week. So, as we go into the week ahead… price momentum could remain volatile and if Fed officials still pitches for a rate cut later in the year, we could see the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields going down, benefiting gold and equities, however, any contra view would push the bullion down again,” Pranav Mer, Research (Commodity & Currency) BlinkX & JM Financial, told Livemint.
A relief rally for gold?
Gold prices fell after a hot U.S. inflation report dimmed prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. “We expect a relief rally in bonds post-Fed, which will also support gold prices. However, considering the massive run-up of the last three weeks in gold, we don’t see significant upside in the near term, even if the Fed is more dovish than market expectations,” Amit Goel, Co-Founder and Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, told Livemint.
Experts further says that the gold prices are likely to remain in an uptrend despite whatever is the outcome of Fed meeting. “We see prices facing immediate support around ₹65,000 and next at ₹63,400, while in dollar terms, support comes around $2115 and next at $2000, on the higher side a breach above the recent all-time high would trigger further buying and prices may test ₹67,200-67,800 in the near term,” Mer further added.
Gold to remain volatile
Apart for U.S. Fed meeting, the gold prices have remained supported by geo-political uncertainty from middle-east tensions due to Israel-Hamas war, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tussle and central bank gold demand.
According to Rahul Kalantri, VP commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd, says that the gold is expected to be volatile ahead of Federal Reserve’s April meeting.
“We expect gold will be volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting but till that time it might be move in range of $2140-$2200, either side breakout of the range could give further $50 move towards that directions. In domestic, range could be ₹64900- ₹66100,” he said.
Kalantri further added, “However, Investors are also keeping an eye on growing geopolitical threats between Russia and Ukraine, as a top Ukrainian intelligence official stated that two border regions had become “active combat zones.”
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The opening two days saw plenty of success for Willie Mullins, who finally hit his historic milestone of a century of victories at the Cheltenham Festival but went winless on St. Patrick’s Thursday. However, he’s trained the favourite of the showpiece race with Galopin Des Champs looking to retain the Gold Cup this afternoon.
Harry Skelton and Paul Townend are vying for the leading jockey title with both sitting on four wins heading into the final day while Rachael Blackmore trails behind on two and could be in contention.
More than 60,000 spectators are expected to flock to Prestbury Park again for the Festival’s conclusion looking to beat the bookmakers, with today’s schedule including the Triumph Hurdle first up at 1.30pm, as well as the County Handicap Hurdle, the Albert Bartless Novices Hurdle, and of course, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Cheltenham 4.10 – Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase odds
The head past the grandstand and make their way out onto the back side of the course. Its On The Line is holding with the leaders but From The Heart and Ramillies have pulled up and won’t finish the race.
Cheltenham 4.10 – Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase odds
Ferns Lock looks a bit shaky with his jumping. He keeps shifting out to the right and it’s a good thing he’s currently out in front. Shantou Flyer and Time Leader are tracking close behind.
Here’s what trainer Willie Mullins had to say after back-to-back Gold Cup victories for Galopin Des Champs.
“He has put himself in the superstar category. What he did, the way he did it, with that loose horse and Paul being so positive on him… We’ll be coming back next year to win a third if we can. He has the ability to do it, we just have to stay sound.
“The loose horse was the only concern. Maybe he hit one fence early but after that, it was very easy. Paul was in the position he wanted and seemed to be travelling easy on him all the time.
“He’s doing everything right, achieving more than I thought he could. It was great to win the Gold Cup last year, and if he was safe and sound, then we thought he could win. But you don’t believe those things, you dream them.”
The markets are currently at their highest point ever in many areas, including the S&P 500, Wall Street indices, major benchmarks in Europe, and the London markets. And it’s not just stocks, both gold and Bitcoin are also reaching record highs. However, Ron William, a market expert, thinks that gold may experience a short-term dip because it is overbought. He predicts it could drop to around $2,100 to $2,000 before continuing its rise in the long term, potentially reaching targets above $2,400.
Economic factors affecting the markets
William also talks about the momentum trade in the markets and how the overall economic factors are impacting it. Right now, those factors are all over the place, and this could be a turning point for the market. He warns that there’s a risk of increasing inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, which could trigger a market downturn. So, it’s crucial to be prepared for potential risks and diversify your investments to protect yourself.
Gold and Bitcoin
Speaking of diversification, William mentions that both gold and Bitcoin are following similar paths. He brings up something called the “bold index,” which could be a way to trade both of these assets in a diversified and leveraged manner. This offers a unique opportunity to potentially profit from the rise of both gold and Bitcoin.
Lastly, William talks about the potential for a market downturn and stresses the importance of technical analysis. By studying patterns and exhaustion points, investors can identify when the market is about to turn. He suggests looking for confirmation of a downward trend and considering trimming positions or using protective stops to reduce risks.
Gold prices firmed on Friday but were on track for their first weekly drop in four over concerns that the Federal Reserve might defer interest rate cuts beyond June after data showed a higher-than-expected rise in inflation.
Spot gold rose 0.4% at $2,169.99 per ounce, as of 1035 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.3% up at $2,174.20.
Bullion was on track for a weekly drop of about 0.5%, its first since mid-February, and retreating from its last week’s record high of $2,194.99 after data indicated that U.S. consumer prices increased above expectations in February. U.S. producer prices also showed some stickiness in inflation.
Higher-than-expected inflation puts the Fed under more pressure to maintain interest rates higher for longer, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold.
“There will be a positive undertone in 2024 for gold with strong investment demand and safe-haven demand,” Jigar Trivedi, a senior analyst at Reliance Securities, said.
After last week’s strong rally, some sort of consolidation or profit booking is expected, and the dollar index rebounding after very strong U.S. economic data has led to the weekly dip in gold, Trivedi added.
The US dollar index headed for its largest weekly gain since mid-January. A firmer dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Traders continue to bet on interest rate cuts in June, pricing in about 59% chance compared with 72% before the CPI data, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, opens new tab. For 2024, market sees about three rate cuts, down from between three to four last Friday.
Spot platinum rose 1.1% to $937.95 per ounce, palladium gained 2.6% to $1,097.50, while silver was up 1.1% at $25.09. All three metals were poised to post a weekly gain. Commerzbank raised its year-end forecast for silver to $29 but noted that it is unlikely to hit record high in the foreseeable future.
