• Brent ended 2025 at $60.85 a barrel after a roughly 19% annual drop; U.S. WTI settled at $57.42, down nearly 20%.
• BNP Paribas expects Brent to dip to $55 in the first quarter of 2026 before rebounding toward $60, with demand flat and supply still growing.
• Forecasters see a 2026 surplus ranging from the IEA’s 3.84 million barrels per day to Goldman Sachs’ 2 million bpd, keeping pressure on prices.

Brent crude is expected to slide toward $55 a barrel in early 2026 as analysts warn that supply will outpace demand after oil posted its steepest annual fall since 2020.

The forecast matters as governments and central banks start the year watching energy costs for inflation, while producers weigh drilling plans and hedging strategies for 2026.

Traders are also looking to OPEC+ for direction ahead of a January 4 meeting, with the group’s next policy move seen as pivotal if prices drift into the low $50s.

Brent futures settled at $60.85 a barrel on Dec. 31, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended at $57.42. Brent fell about 19% in 2025 and WTI nearly 20%, extending a multi-year losing streak for benchmarks.

BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying expects Brent to dip to $55 in the first quarter before recovering to $60 for the rest of 2026. “We think U.S. shale producers were able to hedge at high levels,” Ying said, referring to using derivatives to lock in future selling prices and keep production steady even if spot prices fall. Reuters

Morgan Stanley’s global oil strategist Martijn Rats said OPEC+ would likely respond with cuts only if prices fall substantially further, pointing to the low $50s as the area that could force the group’s hand, according to Reuters.

Most analysts expect a 2026 surplus, with estimates ranging from the International Energy Agency’s 3.84 million barrels per day to Goldman Sachs’ 2 million bpd. A surplus means the world is pumping more oil each day than it consumes, swelling inventories and weighing on prices.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, paused output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing about 2.9 million bpd into the market since April, Reuters reported.

U.S. data have also reinforced the market’s focus on demand. The Energy Information Administration said crude stockpiles fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 26, while gasoline rose by 5.8 million barrels and distillates, including diesel and heating oil, climbed by 5 million barrels on strong refining runs. ( Reuters)

In the same report, “total product supplied” — a widely watched proxy for demand — dropped by 934,000 bpd to 19.38 million bpd, a decline that can signal softer consumption as the holiday period fades.

Geopolitics remains the wild card, analysts said, even with the market leaning bearish on fundamentals. The United States imposed new sanctions on four companies it said were operating in Venezuela’s oil sector and targeted associated tankers, a move Washington said was part of an intensified pressure campaign on President Nicolas Maduro. ( Reuters)

The U.S. action followed a broader push against what officials call a “shadow fleet” — older ships with opaque ownership and limited insurance that transport sanctioned oil — and came after a U.S. blockade announced earlier in December that Reuters said helped cut Venezuela’s exports to about half of November levels.

For now, the tug-of-war is clear: surging supply expectations and swelling inventories point lower, while OPEC+ policy and sanctions-driven disruptions could keep a floor under prices.

The next test comes quickly. Traders will watch the Jan. 4 OPEC+ meeting and early-2026 demand signals for clues on whether Brent stabilizes near $60 — or slips toward the mid-$50s that some banks have penciled in.

NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 13:00 ET — Market closed

• U.S. natural gas-linked fund UNG fell 6.7% in the last session as Henry Hub futures dropped on warmer forecasts and a light storage draw.
• Gas producers slipped while LNG exporter Cheniere edged up, with traders focused on weather updates and the next EIA storage report.

The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) sank 6.7% on Wednesday, the last U.S. trading session of 2025, tracking a sharp pullback in U.S. natural gas prices after traders leaned into a warmer weather outlook for early January.

The move matters because winter pricing is still dominated by short-term swings in heating demand, and forecasts can change quickly. A warmer-than-normal pattern typically means less gas burned for heat and fewer withdrawals from storage.

It also lands as U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports keep running at high levels, tying domestic prices more closely to export demand. That support can be offset in the near term when weather turns milder and production stays high.

UNG closed at $12.26, after trading between $12.18 and $12.69 during the session.

Among gas-heavy producers, EQT fell 1.9%, Antero Resources slid 1.8% and Range Resources dropped 2.3%. LNG exporter Cheniere Energy rose 0.5%.

In the futures market, front-month February Henry Hub contracts were down 5.7% at $3.745 per million British thermal units by 12:41 p.m. ET on Wednesday, pressured by warmer forecasts for next week and a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal, even as record gas flows to LNG export facilities in 2025 kept the market on track for a second straight annual gain. BOE Report

Meteorologists projected above-normal temperatures across the country through Jan. 14, Reuters reported, and Heating Degree Days — a measure of energy demand to heat buildings — fell to 413 from 439 a day earlier. BOE Report

The Energy Information Administration said utilities withdrew 38 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage for the week ended Dec. 26. One bcf is a billion cubic feet of gas. BOE Report+1

Working gas in storage stood at 3,375 bcf, the EIA data showed. That left inventories about 58 bcf above the five-year average for this time of year, based on the agency’s historical comparisons. EIA Information Releases

On the supply side, LSEG data showed Lower 48 output averaging 110.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December, a record, while average feedgas deliveries to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants reached 18.5 bcfd in December. Feedgas is gas delivered to liquefaction terminals for export. BOE Report

“Given this weather and the drawdown number, there’s really not a whole lot of room for the natural gas prices to go up,” said Zhen Zhu, a managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City. BOE Report

Before the next session: U.S. markets reopen on Jan. 2, and traders are likely to keep treating weather model shifts and LNG feedgas flows as the main near-term catalysts. The next weekly storage report from the EIA is scheduled for Jan. 8, following Wednesday’s holiday-shifted release. EIA Information Releases+2EIA Information Releases+2

UNG’s Wednesday low of $12.18 is the first level many short-term traders will watch for signs of another wave of selling, while the day’s high of $12.69 marks the nearby upside hurdle if gas prices rebound.

Safe-haven demand remains a significant long-term tailwind for gold and, of course, there’s lots more going on beyond the Fed’s policy moves that’s keeping gold in demand as a safe-haven asset. The global security situation remains tense, which is keeping people flocking to gold when they get nervous, even as markets are a bit thin and people take profits at the end of the year.

Central Bank Buying Anchors the Long-Term Trend

Central Bank Buying has helped keep the longer-term trend going strong and underpinning the whole gold price rally is the fact that central banks have kept buying gold & that the gold-backed ETFs are still holding pretty strong. All this steady demand has really helped absorb any volatility that’s come up and keep prices supported above some key long-term averages.

When the markets finally get back to work after the New Year break, you can bet that traders will be focusing hard on Fed guidance, real interest rates, and geopolitics to see if gold can finally make a move above where it is now or if it just goes sideways for a bit before deciding which way to go next.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds near $4,310 after the Dec 31 close. On reopening, a break above $4,360 targets $4,400–$4,450, while a slip below $4,280 risks $4,255 support.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Created on January 01, 2026

The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market.

Crude Oil

Crude oil markets have been generally negative during December as we continue to pay close attention to a downtrend line. But perhaps more importantly, I think we’re going to continue to pay a lot of attention to the $55 level. The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market, and I think that continues to be a major battleground.

Whether or not we can break down below, there is still a question that remains to be answered, but I would not be surprised at all to see more of the same action in January that we have seen in both November and December. Quite frankly, the only sign of life in this market over the last couple of months has been due to new sanctions against Russia. And that bullish behavior was squashed almost immediately.

Major Resistance

This has shown that the $62 level is a major resistance barrier that I think is going to take some type of external pressure to break above. I also believe that January will end up being fairly weak from a cyclical standpoint as well, as typically speaking, January is somewhat soft. All things being equal, I think that January will behave in the same way we have seen the oil market behave in general, that anytime we get some type of rally, you’re looking to sell the first signs of exhaustion.

I do not want to get long of oil anytime soon because we do have massive amounts of supply coming out of Guyana and the United States, just to name a couple of places. In other words, the market is awash in oil, and therefore, it’s counterintuitive to think that prices will rise anytime soon. Yes, there will be more sanctions against Russia, would be my bet, but really, at the end of the day, Russian oil still ends up in Europe and Asia, and to a lesser extent, even the United States. So, it’s all a shell game. We have plenty of oil out there. I think we continue to see a lot of overhang as far as selling pressure is concerned.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

10-Day Average Flip Confirms Bearish Behavior

Conversely, Monday’s sharp bearish retracement to a seven-day low that included a breakdown below the 10-day average. There was a chance that the 10-day average would show signs of support but instead Tuesday’s high successfully tested resistance at the 10-day line, confirming a flip from support to resistance. That is bearish behavior. In addition, a narrow range inside day inverted hammer pattern formed below the 10-day average and in the lower third of Monday’s trading range. That is also bearish behavior, which confirmed today with a breakdown from that inside day, followed by further bearish signs.

Monthly Structure Adds Downside Pressure

This puts gold at a critical support zone that is at risk of failure. The monthly chart adds to that risk, as it shows overhead supply keeping downward pressure on prices. A potentially bearish monthly shooting star candlestick pattern has formed for December. The low for the month and therefore a key pivot is December’s low of $4,164. This is interesting since a sustained drop below today’s low puts gold in a position to challenge support near the 50-day average, now at $4,174, above this month’s low.

50-Day Average Marks Critical Defense Zone

Keep in mind that the potentially bearish monthly pattern is not valid until there is a breakdown below December’s low. Until then strong support is anticipated near the 50-day line, now at $4,175. But given the bearish monthly pattern, new trend highs in January seems unlikely, and an inside month more likely.

Bullish Reversal Requires Key Levels to Reclaim

Alternatively, if support holds near the 20-day average and is followed by bullish signs, the long-term bull trend could reassert itself as a short-term pullback completes. It is interesting to note that Wednesday’s weakness shows a break below the near-term uptrend line, adding to potential downside risk. A sustained advance above today’s high of $4,373 would show a one-day bullish reversal and the potential for further upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dominion Energy, Inc. (D) declined in its latest intraday trading, amid continued negative and dynamic pressure from trading below its 50-period simple moving average. This comes while a corrective bearish wave dominates the short term, following the stock’s earlier break of a main ascending trendline. In addition, a bearish crossover is beginning to appear on the RSI after reaching extremely overbought levels.

Therefore we expect the stock price to decline further in the upcoming trading sessions, as long as resistance at $60.25 holds, to target the support level at $57.55.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Lower High Signals Second Leg Down

Given Monday’s sharp bearish reversal following a successful test of resistance near the 20-day average the price of natural gas remains under pressure. The reversal generated a lower daily high at $4.59, likely putting an end to the counter-trend rally. Monday’s decline to a lower retracement low shows the potential for a second leg down from the $5.50 trend high reached earlier this month. Symmetry in price between the two downswings is reached at $2.89, providing a potential downside target. However, to reach that lower price level higher key potential support levels would need to fail first.

Fibonacci Support Defines Next Downside Targets

Support for the retracement has been seen near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone of $3.89, and the top boundary line of a rising trend channel. If a sustained decline triggers below the current low of $3.79, the 61.8% support zone will have failed. Based on Fibonacci analysis, the next lower target would then be $3.45, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. However, the potentially significant 200-day moving average is a little higher, at $3.57 currently.

200-Day Average Becomes Key Support Focus

The current bearish correction is the first pullback towards the 200-day line since it was reclaimed in late-October. Resistance near the 200-day line was seen during two periods in October prior to the upside breakout. So, the expectation is for signs of support to occur near or above the 200-day average if the bearish correction continues to lower prices. If not, the price area around the 78.6% level becomes a key area for support to be seen. Depending on when the lower Fibonacci level is reached, a lower rising channel line might also assist in identify areas of dynamic support.

Broadening Range is Alternative Scenario

An alternative scenario is that last week’s outside week shows the potential for a broadening formation to evolve as price consolidates. If so, additional consolidation within a range from around today’s low of $3.79 and up to last week’s high of $4.59.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price repeatedly forming weak trading, attempting to surpass stochastic negativity by its fluctuation above EMA50 at $5.5100, the continuation of the sideways bias dominance is expected until gathering the required bullish momentum to resume the bullish attack and achieving extra gains by its rally towards $5.8000 reaching the next resistance at $5.9700.

While the decline below the current support will force it to delay the bullish attack and form bearish waves, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.3200 followed by the base of the next sport at 5.1500 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.5500 and $5.8000

Trend forecast: Bullish