Created on October 09, 2025

Thursday, October 09, 2025: Gold Forecast and Analysis of the price of gold XAU/USD today

Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

• The overall of Gold Trend: Strongly bullish.
• Today’s Gold Support Points: $4010 – $3970 – $3920 per ounce.
• Today’s Gold Resistance Points: $4075 – $4100 – $4120 per ounce.

Today’s Gold Trading Signals:

• Sell gold from the resistance level of $4080, with a target of $3900 and a stop-loss at $4110.
• Buy gold from the support level of $3960, with a target of $4060 and a stop-loss at $3920.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:

Amid moves that have amazed investors, gold futures are already heading towards a new milestone in the middle of the trading week. Just one day after surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time, the gold price index is looking to reach $4100 per ounce. According to gold trading platforms, the yellow metal’s index has risen to the resistance level of $4060 per ounce, the highest in the history of the gold trading market. Overall, the price of gold has risen by more than 4% this week, bringing its year-to-date increase to about 54%.

In a similar performance, silver, gold’s sister commodity, is attempting to reach $49 per ounce. According to trades, the price of the white metal has risen by 3% this week, boosting its year-to-date gain to about 67%. Silver prices are closing near their all-time high from 1980.

Reasons for the Rise in Gold Prices

According to the monitoring and expectations of gold analysts, gold prices have continued their meteoric rise amid a weak US dollar, lower interest rates, and massive demand from central banks. This is compounded by increasing global geopolitical tensions led by the ongoing US government shutdown and European political anxiety, most notably the situation in France.

According to forex market trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, has fallen by 9% this year, although it is expected to post consecutive gains. A weak US dollar is beneficial for dollar-priced commodities because it makes them cheaper for foreign investors to buy. Another influential factor in the gold market is that US Treasury yields have mostly declined, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 4.1%. Lower interest rates help reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Meanwhile, data indicates that central banks and retail traders are buying gold at a rapid pace. In fact, figures show that central banks now hold an amount of gold equivalent to their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with many pointing to countries diversifying their investments away from the US dollar. Overall, the demand for gold also reflects the growing size of US holdings. Recent data shows that the value of US gold reserves has now surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, driven by price appreciation rather than new acquisitions. Globally, across reliable platforms, precious metals markets have seen a comprehensive recovery as investors hedge against inflation, currency risks, and geopolitical uncertainty, with silver and platinum prices reaching multi-year highs.

Looking ahead, investors remain optimistic about gold trading as the Federal Reserve and other global central banks are engaged in an interest rate-cutting cycle. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the futures market is betting on two additional quarter-point rate cuts this year. Despite investors buying gold at record levels, conditions indicate that the metal is in a severely overbought state. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold has reached approximately 89.72 on the monthly chart – its highest level since at least 1980.

Trading Tips:

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The EURJPY pair succeeded in resuming its bullish attempts yesterday, to hit the extra target at 177.80, to settle below it announces its confinement within tight track that is represented by the initial support at 176.95, and 177.80 level forms a key barrier against the bullish trading.

We remain neutral due to the instability of the price, until surpassing the previously- mentioned levels, to confirm the suggested targets in the near trading, the price success in breaching the barrier and holding above it will increase the chances for resuming the main bullish trend, attempting to reach 178.45 followed by the trading towards the bullish channel’s resistance at 179.60 level, while the decline below the extra support will support activating the attempts of gathering the gains, to reach 176.20 directly, then testing the next support near 175.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 176.90 and 177.80

Trend forecast: Neutral

Copper price began today’s trading with a new positivity, attempting to breach the barrier at $5.0600 level, to confirm its surrender to the suggested bullish scenario.

We recommend waiting for confirming the activation of the price with the positivity of the main indicators by its rally towards $5.200 level, then attempt to press on the barrier at $5.3200, forming the initial main target of the current bullish track.

The expected trading range for today is between $4,988 and $5.2000

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price repeated providing positive closes in the last period by its stability above $1600.00 level, forming an extra support against the bullish attempts, attempting to settle within the minor bullish channel’s levels by its fluctuating near $1655.00.

Note that stochastic attempt to settle within the overbought level might provide extra positive momentum, reinforcing the mission of recording positive stations, which might begin at $1690.00 and $1727.00, while the price decline below the mentioned extra support might force it to provide mixed trading, and there is a chance to decline towards $1665.00 before recording any of the suggested extra targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $1600.00 and $1690.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper surged to a 16-month high in London Wednesday when Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B)(NYSE: TECK) lowered its copper production guidance for 2025 after persistent setbacks at its Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper (HVC) operation in Canada.

Prices climbed as much as 0.5% to $10,815 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange. The company said it now expects to produce 170,000 to 190,000 tons in 2025, down from its previous target of 210,000 to 230,000 tons. Teck also trimmed annual production targets for the next three years.

The QB project has long frustrated investors, coming in $4 billion over budget and years behind schedule. Current challenges include tailings storage at the high-altitude site in the Andes, as well as damage to key equipment and instability within the mine pit.

So far this year, copper prices have risen about 23%, as mounting supply concerns outweigh weak demand in major industrial economies. Analysts have cut output projections after a series of accidents and operational setbacks at mines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, leading many to anticipate sizable supply deficits.

Supply worries intensified after Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia—the world’s second-largest copper operation—following severe flooding that halted production. The company confirmed over the weekend that all seven missing workers were found dead after the discovery of five additional bodies.

“We are in a world of unprecedented copper supply disruptions, and many of these issues are not short-term,” analysts at Jefferies wrote in a note. “Yet another miss at QB just adds more fuel to the fire.”

Citigroup analysts expect copper to climb further, forecasting prices could reach $12,000 per tonne in the first half of next year amid supply cuts and favorable macro trends, including a weaker US dollar. They project prices will gradually ease through 2026 as disrupted mines resume production.

Click on chart for live prices.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, three-month copper futures rose 1.15% to $11,343 per tonne ($5.156 per pound).

(With files from Bloomberg)

Overbought Readings Highlight Correction Risk

Technical indicators confirm gold’s extended condition. The relative strength index (RSI) remains in overbought territory, while the slope of the bull trend has steepened notably. This upper dashed line represents the outer boundary of the advance projected from the March base. Though further upside cannot be ruled out, a brief correction would be healthy, allowing the trend to reset before a potential continuation. Without some form of pullback, the odds of a fast, sharp decline increase if momentum falters suddenly.

Key Support Levels to Watch

Initial support lies at the 10-Day moving average, currently near $3,879. A drop below today’s low would hint at the first test of that line. Should it hold, buyers could quickly regain control and drive another leg higher. Deeper support sits at the 20-Day moving average around $3,783, which may come into play if selling accelerates. Given the rapid ascent of recent weeks, a move toward the 20-Day average would not be unexpected and could help stabilize the trend.

Bulls Still Command the Trend

For now, no clear weakness has emerged. A rally above today’s $4,059 high would reaffirm the dominant uptrend and continue the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Given the enthusiasm of recent sessions, a sharp upward burst toward a potential blow-off top remains possible.

The upper estimate on the chart aligns with a measured move projection from the December swing low. Traders should remain alert, however, as any bearish follow-through from current levels could shift attention to lower targets and mark the beginning of a cooling phase.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Double Top and Short-Term Support Levels in Focus

The lower high recorded today raises the potential for a double top bearish reversal if prices decline below Monday’s $3.30 low. Such a move would likely trigger additional selling pressure, especially as it coincides with a breakdown beneath the 10-Day average and tests of dynamic support along a long-term rising trendline. While the 10-Day average provides a short-term directional cue, a decisive close below the uptrend line would carry greater significance, confirming a shift in control toward sellers.

Downside Risk Builds if Trendline Support Breaks

Should natural gas fall beneath the uptrend line, the broader bearish structure – defined by a descending trend channel – could reassert dominance. That scenario opens the door to retests of the recent swing lows and key moving averages. The 20-Day average, currently near $3.13, offers interim support, followed by the 50-Day at $3.02. Importantly, an anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) from a major prior pivot aligns near $2.97, reinforcing the significance of that support zone.

Bulls Eye a Recovery Above $3.59

Despite today’s weakness, buyers still have an opportunity to reclaim control. A move above the recent swing high at $3.59 would confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend and reestablish momentum above the 200-Day average, now near $3.49. Such strength would invalidate the developing double top and signal that bullish forces remain intact. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to deeper retracements, with traders watching whether support near the 10-Day line and trendline can hold in the days ahead.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A looming oversupply of crude oil is going to cause prices to take a dive as the world moves on to alternatives to hydrocarbons and economic growth remains weak. This has been the message from virtually every price forecaster for months. Yet benchmark oil prices have remained remarkably stable. Some call it a mystery. Yet there is nothing mysterious about it. Forecasts do not reflect real-life supply and demand.

“There is a bit of a mystery,” Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, told the Financial Times this month. “The whole marketplace is looking for enormous surpluses and yet the price isn’t buckling. Instead of $67 a barrel, why are we not looking at $47 a barrel?”

There are two likely reasons why we are not looking at $47 a barrel. One of these reasons is the EU’s and the United States’ continued efforts to decimate Russia’s energy export income via additional sanctions. Since Russia is the second-largest oil producer in the world, right before Saudi Arabia, disruption in its oil flows will affect the global balance of supply and demand—and analysts know it. So do forecasters. However, they are downplaying such geopolitical risks in favor of the argument that the electrification of transport and weak economic growth in many key markets are undermining oil demand. Supply, meanwhile, is growing, according to the forecasters, and apparently this supply growth is completely disconnected from prices—which it obviously is not.

Related: Turkey Silent After Tripartite Deal That Could Get Kurdish Flowing This Week

The second reason why prices are not down all the way to $47 a barrel is China. Millions of words have been spent on media reports suggesting China‘s oil demand is close to peaking, and afterwards it will drop off a cliff. China, meanwhile, has been stocking up on crude, even with weakening demand growth, which is a fact, after over two decades of leaps and bounds. Indeed, Reuters’ Clyde Russell noted in a recent column that China’s crude oil imports have been on the rise since March this year, even if some of the crude goes into storage rather than refineries. Indeed, per Russell, “from March onwards China has been importing crude at a far higher rate than it needs to meet its domestic fuel requirements.”

This has, in turn, been keeping international oil prices stable and higher than many would like to see them, including President Donald Trump, who had cheap gas on his agenda when he took office. On the other hand, Trump strongly believes that hurting Russia’s oil export revenues would speed up the end of hostilities in Ukraine. That, however, would push prices higher, which may be why he has been in no rush to impose additional sanctions on Russia’s energy industry—unlike the EU, which just did, facing an even higher energy bill as it voluntarily gives up Russian oil.

There is also the aspect of perceived versus actual demand and consumption of oil. Oxford Energy addressed this aspect of the oil market in a recent report, dispelling rumors of an impending glut by citing storage numbers that show no sign of oversupply. Floating storage, for instance, is below the levels reached in 2022, when everyone rushed to prepare for the anti-Russian sanctions. OECD stocks, often used as a reference point for forecasts, are below the five-year average, meaning consumption is quite healthy. One final indicator of stronger-than-expected demand comes again from China, in the form of lower fuel exports, cited by Oxford Economics.

Yet this context remains largely ignored in favor of what basically amounts to a fixation on EV sales projections and GDP forecasts, plus references to OPEC+’s decision to unwind output curbs installed in 2022.

“Yes, there will be downward pressure on prices, I just don’t buy into the narrative that we’re going to see $40 oil,” Sen said. “As long as the Chinese bid is there and Opec+ spare capacity is constrained, the downside is going to be protected.” In addition to these, there is also the producer response to prices that are sub-optimal for most producers. It is inevitable and, indeed, U.S. producers are already responding by slackening the pace of production growth this year.

While forecasters forecast, oil prices remain stable, despite claims that oil market volatility has increased over the past couple of years amid a surge in the use of so-called shadow fleet tankers to transport Russian crude, creating what Reuters’ Ron Bousso called “blind spots” on the market that make it increasingly difficult for traders to glean the facts about supply-demand balance. They will remain stable for the observable future as well, as geopolitical factors continue to push them higher, while forecasts of a glut curb the upside, regardless of whether there are signs of such a glut about to materialize.

Such materialization is becoming less likely by the day, it seems. According to one of the glut-prediction forecasters, Maquarie, “The problem is, a bear market needs the element of surprise, and this has no surprise in it.”

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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