Signs of Strong Demand

Nonetheless, the behavior of crude oil the past couple of days shows demand remains strong. Yesterday, crude oil pulled back to find support at the 200-Day MA and bounced. Notice that the 200-Day MA was shown as resistance on two days last week. Once it is successfully tested as support the rising trend may be ready to proceed. Buyers took back control today, as a higher daily low was established and today’s closing price looks likely to be in the top third of the day’s trading range. Moreover, crude oil looks set to end Tuesday’s session at its highest daily closing price since the beginning of February.

Multiple Signs of Strength

Strength was also shown during the rally on a bullish reversal signal that triggered above the lower swing high at $72.49 last Friday. The breakout was confirmed by a daily close above that level on Friday. Today’s closing price above that level will further confirm strength. In addition, a solid top downtrend line was broken over the past few days.

That breakout will likely be confirmed by today’s closing price above that level. What this shows is that demand for crude oil remains strong. Therefore, a breakout above last week’s high of $76.29 could occur before a deeper pullback. If it does, the lower swing high at $80.76 marks the next upside target.

Double Inside Days

The 200-Day MA remains key near-term support crude oil. If prices stay above that line, the potential for a new high breakout remains. So far, the pattern that has developed is a double inside day. This shows diminishing volatility as the trend takes a rest and gains are digested. Typically, similar patterns can lead to a bullish continuation signal. However, given the wide trading ranges of the past few days, a breakout above the $76.29 high could see another spike in volatility.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bullish Above $3,346 to $3,366

An attempt to test support around the lower boundary line of the pennant occurred today. But the day’s low didn’t quite reach it. If the pennant boundaries are maintained, then a rally from the lower area of the pennant could lead to an upside breakout of the pattern. Given the structure of the pennant, an upside breakout could trigger on the next rally, or resistance is seen and followed by a pullback first. A breakout above Tuesday’s high of $3,346 would put natural gas back above the 20-Day MA, as well as the 50-Day line. But a bullish reversal will not be indicated until there is a rise above the recent lower swing high at $3,366.

Upside Pennant Breakout Above $3,451

Although an initial pennant breakout signal will occur on a rally above the top boundary line, the recent swing high of $3,451 should provide a more reliable price level as a swing high will be broken. Gold has been consolidating for several months near the highs of the long-term uptrend. Consolidation has occurred in a relatively bullish position, primarily retaining support above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Notice that the pullback low of the pennant at $2,121 in May found support around the 38.2% level, along with the 50-Day MA. And it has not been approached again since then. This shows underlying buying strength being maintained, along with a bullish trend structure.

Bearish Below $3,247

Regardless of the potential for an eventual upside pennant breakout, a drop below last week’s swing low of $3,243 will show weaking and a breakdown of the pennant. That would put gold in a position to retest support around the 38.2% retracement and possibly fall through it to the 50% retracement level at $3,041, if not lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bearish Momentum Puts $3.10 Swing Low at Risk

Today’s low was close to hitting the 78.6% level and it may have been close enough to consider it reached. However, given the drop below the trend line and deeper decline below the 200-Day MA, now at $3.42, the $3.10 swing low is at risk of being broken. That would trigger another bearish reversal signal. As noted previously, there is a lower target for natural gas, around $2.97 to $2.95.

That zone consists of an initial target for a falling ABCD pattern (purple) and an AVWAP level measured from the 2024 trend low, respectively. Notice that natural gas reversed from support around the AVWAP line twice previously, once in April and in October 2024.

Lower Trendline is Potential Target

Despite the potential for the $2.97 price area being reached, there is also a long-term uptrend line (purple) that touches an August 2024 swing low at $1.88. Since it is a long-term line it should show signs of support, if approached. The uptrend line is currently a little below the $2.95 AVWAP line but will match that level by the end of July. Keep in mind that trendline signals should be confirmed by other technical signals as there can be more than one placement for the line.

Measured Moves Point Lower

An assessment of previous bearish corrections since the January swing high shows a 31.6% decline from the January swing high and a 32.8% decline from the March 31 lower swing high. Note that the March downswing was the second leg down from the $4.90 trend high. So, the full bearish correction was larger with a 41.7% decline in a relatively short period. A 32.8% drop for the current downswing will complete around $2.79.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Fed Stays Cautious as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

The Federal Reserve’s stance remains a key pressure point for bullion markets. Following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June, market participants have pared back expectations of a July rate cut.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in just a 20% probability of a cut at the upcoming meeting, with most expectations being deferred to October or later.

“Investors are holding back ahead of the FOMC minutes, looking for any deviation from the Fed’s cautious tone,” said a senior strategist at Wells Fargo. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3%, reinforcing dollar strength and keeping gold bulls at bay.

Trump’s Tariff Threats Stir Market Volatility

Former President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, has added to concerns about inflation. Proposed duties include up to 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals and 50% on imported copper. These aggressive measures have reignited fears of global supply chain disruptions and added to broader economic uncertainty.

Despite downward price action, demand for gold as a safe haven has not fully evaporated. Risk sentiment in equity markets remains fragile, offering limited downside protection for gold as geopolitical tensions and trade policy risks mount.

All Eyes on FOMC Minutes for Market Direction

Traders await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later today. With markets still anticipating up to 50 basis points in cuts by year-end, any shift in tone could spark significant price action across precious metals. Until then, gold and silver remain vulnerable to further downside, contingent on dollar momentum and bond market signals.

Will Storage Surpluses and LNG Keep Bears in Control?

Ample storage continues to weigh on bulls, with the latest EIA data showing U.S. inventories up 6.2% above the five-year average, despite being down 5.8% year-over-year.

The latest injection of +55 Bcf surpassed consensus, reinforcing the market’s view that supply is not a constraint.

Eli Rubin at EBW Analytics noted that the combination of “lofty storage surpluses and weak Henry Hub spot realizations” may keep bears in charge, especially given uneven LNG flows, which fell 2.5% week-over-week to 15 Bcf/day on Tuesday.

Lower-48 dry gas production remains robust at 104.8 Bcf/day, up 3.9% year-over-year, while demand fell 6.8% to 77.9 Bcf/day, underscoring the imbalance pressing prices lower.

How Are Weather and Wind Generation Influencing Demand?

NatGasWeather highlighted strong heat for July 7-13, with highs in the mid-80s to 90s across much of the U.S., including 100s in the West and Plains, supporting high near-term demand.

However, forecasts have cooled for the central U.S. for July 13-17 and for the East July 18-22, pressuring futures lower on expectations of reduced power burn for air conditioning.

The EURJPY pair began this morning with new positivity by surpassing the resistance of the bullish channel’s resistance at 171.70 level, recording some extra gains by holding near 172.25.

Note that stochastic stability within the overbought level might decelerate the chances of forming a strong bullish rally, but its repeated stability above 171.10 that attempts to form an extra support might assist to motivate the continuation of the positivity, to expect reaching to 172.85 followed by 161.8%Fibonacci extended level at 173.40

The expected trading range for today is between 171.50 and 171.85

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper prices are under strong positive pressures, which allows it to surpass the barrier at $5.1000, to notice forming a strong bullish rally and achieving big gains by hitting $5.8100 level, forming an intraday rebound to $5.5500 to catch its breath and gather some gains.

Note that the price is surrounded by several positive factors that support the continuation of the positivity, such as the unionism of the main indicators by providing positive momentum besides forming extra support at $5.3200 level, which makes us prefer more of the bullish attempts that target 2.00%Fibonacci extended level at $5.9720, to approach from the resistance of the main bullish channel that appears in the above image.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.4500 and $5.9800

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price licks its wounds early Wednesday after breaking the range to the downside.
• Trade deals optimism and a hawkish shift in Fed expectations remain a drag on the non-yielding Gold price.
• Gold price settles Tuesday below 50-day SMA, with a bearish daily RSI in play.

Gold price is battling $3,300, licking its wounds early Wednesday. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the bright metal, awaiting fresh trade updates and the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) June policy meeting for fresh directives.

Gold price eyes trade talks, Fed Minutes

Following Tuesday’s over 1% decline, Gold price is nursing losses in Asian trading on Wednesday, unable to find much inspiration from mixed Chinese inflation data for June.

Data on Wednesday showed that China’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1% in June after falling 0.1% in May. Meanwhile, the nation’s Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 3.6% over the year in June versus -3.2% expected and -3.3% previous.

Investors continue to digest US President Donald Trump’s tariff talks, with the renewed optimism over likely US trade deals lending some support to the US Dollar (USD), capping the Gold price recovery attempts.

Trump extended the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ deadline until August 1, allowing some of the US trade partners more time for trade negotiations and reaching a deal. This narrative continues to float the boat for the Greenback at the expense of the USD-denominated Gold price.

Meanwhile, trade war re-ignited as Trump threatened 25%-40% tariffs on 12 countries and 10% additional levies on all BRICS nations, including India, effective August 1.

“The lingering threat to inflation from tariffs will probably persuade the Fed to hold off cutting interest rates until next year, and this will put a lid on Gold prices,” Reuters reported, citing Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

However, markets remain wary about a trade stand-off between the US and Japan and the US and South Korea, while taking account of Trump’s latest tariff announcement of 50% on Copper imports to take effect within 30 months.

Further, the US President said on social media that there would be announcements on Wednesday regarding “a minimum of 7 countries having to do with trade,” without specifying whether he would be announcing new deals or tariff letters.

Alongside trade talks, the Fed’s June meeting Minutes also take center stage this Wednesday, with markets looking forward to fresh hints on the timing of the next interest rate cut, given the heightened uncertain environment due to Trump’s tariffs.

Markets are now pricing in a 61% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, down from about 73% seen a week ago, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price broke the recent range to the downside after piercing through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,322 on a daily closing basis on Tuesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) found foothold below the midline in the bearish territory, currently near 44.50, suggesting that the tide has clearly turned in favor of Gold sellers.

Therefore, a sustained move below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3,297 is critical to extending the latest leg south toward the monthly low of $3,248.

The last line of defense for buyers is seen at the 50% Fibo support at $3,232.

Alternatively, any recovery attempts need acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $3,346.

Further up, the 23.6% Fibo level of the same advance at $3,377 could offer stiff resistance to Gold buyers.

The next topside hurdle is seen at the $3,400 threshold.

The GBPJPY pair kept its positive stability above 66%Fibonacci correction level, to form a strong support at 198.80, resuming the rise and achieving new gains by reaching 199.80 level, approaching from the initial extra target at 200.35.

The continuation of stochastic fluctuation with the overbought level might push the price to target 200.35 level, which forces it to provide mixed trading until gathering the required extra positive momentum for achieving extra gains that might extend to 200.85 reaching the next main target at 201.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 199.00 and 200.35

Trend forecast: Bullish