Copper price provided slow trading recently, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, to delay the negative attack and settles near $4.7500 level, reminding you that the bearish scenario will remain valid by the continuation of forming main barrier at $4.9100 against the current trading, which increases the chances for forming bearish waves to press on 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, and breaking it will extend the losses towards $4.5600, to face the moving average55.

The price rally above the mentioned barrier and holding above it, will confirming delaying the negative attack, and provide chances for recording some extra gains before reaching the previously waited negative targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price provided slow trading recently, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, to delay the negative attack and settles near $4.7500 level, reminding you that the bearish scenario will remain valid by the continuation of forming main barrier at $4.9100 against the current trading, which increases the chances for forming bearish waves to press on 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600, and breaking it will extend the losses towards $4.5600, to face the moving average55.

The price rally above the mentioned barrier and holding above it, will confirming delaying the negative attack, and provide chances for recording some extra gains before reaching the previously waited negative targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold Price loses ground to near $3,310 in Monday’s early Asian session, down 0.30% on the day. 
• De-escalating trade tensions between the US and China underpins the Gold price. 
• The fears of the US recession might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower to around $3,310 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal retreats after hitting its record high last week amid signs that global trade tensions may be easing.

US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs, per Reuters. Rollins noted that there were ongoing talks between the two nations and that trade deals with other nations were “very close.” 

“Headlines over potential, partial exemptions in retaliatory tariffs further boosted sentiment today and allowed gold to dip below $3,300 levels,” said Yuxuan Tang, a strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump’s announcement of broad and steep tariffs earlier in April prompted fears of the US economy tipping into a recession in recent weeks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last week that the US is confronting an increased risk of recession as Trump’s trade war pushes the global economy into a significant slowdown. This, in turn, could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

Gold traders will closely monitor the preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1), which is due later on Wednesday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US April employment report, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. 

Silver Tracks Gold, Faces Selling Pressure

Silver (XAG/USD) mirrored the weakness in gold, trading at $33.44 after touching an intraday low of $33.37. The broader risk-on tone, fueled by upbeat U.S. economic figures and reduced trade friction, contributed to the decline.

Both metals remain under pressure as investors tilt toward equities and higher-yielding assets.

Stronger U.S. Data Boosts Dollar, Fed Dovishness Cushions Gold

U.S. macro data released Thursday showed notable strength. Weekly jobless claims came in at 222,000, reflecting a still-resilient labor market. March durable goods orders surged 9.2%—driven by a third consecutive 27% rise in transportation equipment—beating the 2% forecast handily.

This bolstered the U.S. dollar, further weighing on gold. However, dovish commentary from Fed officials provided a partial buffer.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rate cuts could begin as early as June, while Governor Waller acknowledged a need to ease policy if tariffs begin harming employment. Markets now price in up to three rate cuts by year-end.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Safe-Haven Floor

Despite the pullback, geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin gold. A missile strike in Kyiv—reportedly one of the deadliest since the start of the conflict—killed at least 12 people, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in gold prices.

Natural gas price suffered new negative pressures by stochastic approach from 20 level, which forces it to reach below the extra support at $3.610, forming new bearish wave to settle near $3.500 as appears in the above image.

In spite of the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, but the continuation of the negative pressures and forming extra barrier at $3.770, so these factors supports the bearish bias dominance in the current period, to expect suffering new losses by reaching $3.380 reaching the moving average 55 near $3.230.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.380 and $3.700

Trend forecast: Bearish

Downward Pressure Remains

Despite finding support yesterday at the AVWAP, downward pressure remains. Prior support from the January swing low at $2.99 was tested today as resistance, as the high for the day was at $2.98. Moreover, at the time of this writing, natural gas is trading below Thursday’s closing price of $2.94 and it may end the day in a similar position. Each is a bearish sign.

Decline Stalls After 41.7% Drop

Nevertheless, the bearish correction has seen the price of natural gas fall by $2.04 or 41.7% from the recent trend high of $4.90. The decline shows symmetry on a percentage basis with the earlier bearish correction that started following the June 2024 swing high at $3.16. Natural gas declined following that high and eventually established a higher swing low in August.

That low provided the second point to draw a rising trendline across support, which was used to generate the top line of a bullish trend channel. Note that the 2024 decline was the largest since the 2024 bottom, until now. Once there is symmetry in price between swings, there is the potential for support to be seen and possibly the completion of the correction.

Lower Support at $2.79

Furthermore, since the lower line of the trend channel has not been tested as support, while the top line shows resistance a few times recently, there is a chance that the lower line will be tested before the bearish correction is complete. But that is not much lower than current prices. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is at $2.79 and the 127.2% projection for a falling ABCD pattern points to $2.77. Alternatively, the current low continues to hold and a one-day bullish reversal triggers on a move above today’s high. If the 200-Day MA, now at $3.08, is subsequently reclaimed, a bottom may be established.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price falls sharply to near $33.00 on hopes of de-escalation in Sino-US trade war.
• China considers pausing tariffs on some US imports.
• Beijing denies any economic and trade talks with the US.

Silver price (XAG/USD) plunges more than 1.5% to near $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal falls sharply from its three-week high of $33.70 posted earlier in the day. The asset weakens as investors have become increasingly confident that the United States (US) and China will make a deal sooner.

Hopes of a truce on a trade war between the world’s two largest powerhouses have increased as China has stated that it is considering suspending additional tariffs on imports of medical equipment and some industrial chemicals from the US, Bloomberg reported.

Investors see the scenario as favorable for the global economic outlook. Theoretically, improving global economic prospects diminish the demand of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has bounced back after a sharp corrective move on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 99.75.

However, contradictory statements from US President Donald Trump and China over whether both nations have come on the table or not for negotiating trade deals are expected to keep investors on the sidelines. Trump has been stating that discussion between Washington and Beijing on trade are going well, however, China has denied these remarks, saying that there has not been any “economic and trade negotiations between China and the US”.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price falls sharply after posting a fresh three-week high around $33.70. However, the near-term outlook of the white metal remains bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.60.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI will break above that level.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Bullish Momentum Unsustainable

Technically, there has been limited damage done to the bull trend so far, but there are initial signs that at least an interim high may have been reached and therefore a deeper or longer correction may have begun. The recent rapid rise in the slope of the trend is one example of how the gold rally may have reached exhaustion now that a one-day bearish signal has been confirmed. Trend indicators such as rising support trendlines and the increasing spread between the 200-Day MA (blue), 50-Day MA (orange), and 20-Day MA (purple), reflect the growing bullish momentum.

Bearish Signs Remain

A decline below today’s low of $3,287 will give a bearish signal and put this week’s low at risk of failing. However, the first key support zone looks to be from $3,246 to $3,228, consisting of a prior trend high and 50% retracement, respectively. The top blue rising trend channel line previously represented resistance and now support since it was exceeded two weeks ago is also around that price area. Subsequently, a decline below the 50% retracement level puts gold in a position to test the next lower potential support zone around a prior trend high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,164.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Is Technical Pressure Signaling a Deeper Pullback?

The daily chart suggests ample room for additional downside movement, with the next significant support level marked at $2.199. Immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% short-term retracement level of $2.995. A break above this could spark short-covering activity, but upside momentum would likely stall near the 50% retracement at $3.361. Until a clear reversal forms, price action remains vulnerable to further selling.

How Did the Latest EIA Report Rattle the Market?

Thursday’s EIA report fueled selling after a much larger-than-expected storage build. Inventories for the week ended April 18 surged by +88 Bcf, sharply above the consensus estimate of +75 Bcf and the five-year average build of +58 Bcf. This sizable increase came even as total stocks remain -20.2% lower year-over-year and -2.3% below the five-year seasonal average, underscoring tight overall supply but overshadowed by the near-term bearish build.

Could Renewable Energy Trends Keep a Lid on Prices?

Strong wind and solar generation were cited as major factors behind the weak drawdown in natural gas inventories. As renewable output expands, natural gas demand for power generation continues to face intermittent headwinds, particularly during mild weather periods. This dynamic weighed heavily on sentiment after the bearish EIA miss.

What Role Is Weather Playing in Suppressing Demand?

Weather forecasts through April 30 project near-ideal conditions across most of the U.S., with highs ranging from the 60s to 80s, and localized 90s across the southern states. With only light to very light national demand expected, near-term fundamentals offer little support to prices. Mild conditions reduce both heating and cooling loads, directly limiting natural gas consumption.

Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Prevails

Given the combination of bearish EIA data, weak weather-driven demand, strong renewable generation, and bearish technical signals, the short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Traders should watch the $2.906 technical level closely, but a failure to hold above it opens the door for a deeper correction toward $2.199 support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The EURJPY pair provided new negative closes below the moving average 55 at 161.20 level, which forces it to return to settle within the bearish channel’s levels, to begin targeting some of the negative stations by reaching 159.60.

The contradiction between the main indicators might force the price to form mixed waves, but the chances of activating the bearish track will remain valid, if the trading settled below the bearish channel’s resistance at 160.75, to expect forming an initial negative target at 158.90 level, reaching 157.40 in the near period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 158.90 and 161.00

Trend forecast: Bearish