The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a three-year low, reducing the cost of dollar-denominated metals for international buyers. “Markets are increasingly pricing in structural risks—ranging from trade disruptions to long-term inflation—while continued central bank accumulation offers additional support,” said Yeap Jun Rong, strategist at IG.
The shift in currency sentiment comes as President Trump’s administration moves forward with broad-based tariff plans.
While exemptions were granted to some countries, the focus remains on China, where trade talks have stagnated. Beijing, in response, warned against bilateral deals that could undermine its position in ongoing negotiations.
Fed Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Shape Market Tone
Investors are also watching developments at the Federal Reserve, where speculation around leadership persists. The White House has reportedly revisited discussions about replacing Chair Jerome Powell, a move that would further complicate monetary policy signals at a time when inflation remains uneven and growth momentum fragile.
Meanwhile, geopolitical instability—particularly across Eastern Europe—is adding to the cautious mood in financial markets. Although a temporary ceasefire had been announced, reports of renewed conflict have raised doubts about any meaningful de-escalation in the near term.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold eyes $3,404 as bulls defend key support near $3,368; silver holds above $32.63 with upside capped at $33.11 unless volume confirms a breakout.
The primary drag on prices came from updated weather projections. Atmospheric G2 reported warmer-than-normal conditions across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. for April 22–26, reducing the need for heating demand. With storage builds now expected to accelerate, traders leaned bearish, even as technical indicators show the market holding above its 200-day moving average at $2.897.
Bullish Inventory Data Offers Temporary Support
The EIA reported a +16 Bcf injection for the week ended April 11, well below forecasts of +24 Bcf and the five-year average increase of +50 Bcf. While this bullish surprise triggered a round of short covering, it wasn’t enough to change the broader sentiment driven by warming temperatures. As of April 11, U.S. natural gas inventories were 20.9% below year-ago levels and 3.9% below the five-year average.
Production Stable, But Demand Picture Mixed
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday reached 105.6 Bcf/day, up 5.4% year-over-year, while demand stood at 70.1 Bcf/day, up 2.2%. LNG flows to export terminals dropped to 15.5 Bcf/day, down 4.8% from the prior week. Electricity demand, however, remained supportive. The Edison Electric Institute reported a 6.4% year-over-year jump in power generation for the week ending April 12, potentially signaling stronger gas burn from utilities.
Silver regains positive traction at the start of a new week following Friday’s modest slide.
The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bulls and supports prospects for further gains.
Any corrective pullback towards the $32.00 mark could be seen as a buying opportunity.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and touches an intraday high, around the $32.80 region during the Asian session. The white metal, however, remains below the $33.00 mark and a nearly two-week high touched last Thursday, warranting some caution for bullish traders.
From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent slump from the March swing high to a fresh year-to-date low touched earlier this month. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the $33.00 mark, or the 78.6% Fibo. level, before placing fresh bullish bets. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the positive momentum towards the $33.20 area, en route to the next relevant hurdle near the $33.50-$33.55 region and the $34.00 neighborhood, or a multi-month peak touched in March.
On the flip side, Friday’s swing low, around the $32.10-$32.05 region, or the 61.8% Fibo. level might continue to act as an immediate support. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $31.35-$31.30 area, or the 50% Fibo. level. A convincing break below, however, might prompt technical selling and make the XAG/USD vulnerable.
The subsequent further might then drag the XAG/USD below the $31.00 round-figure mark, towards the $30.55 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. The downward trajectory could extend further toward the $30.00 psychological mark en route to the $29.55 region (23.6% Fibo.). The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold Price rises to around $3,375 in Monday’s early Asian session, up 1.43% on the day.
Significant uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs on imports into the US supports the Gold price.
The Fed’s hawkish remarks might cap the upside for the XAU/USD.
The Gold Price (XAU/USD) drifts higher to a fresh record high near $3,375 during the early Asian session on Monday after facing some profit-taking due to the long weekend. Uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and persistent geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the precious metal.
Investors have rushed to safe-haven assets like Gold due to rising uncertainty about tariffs and their impact on the economy, resulting in a more than 25% increase in the yellow metal prices since January. “The case for adding gold allocations has become more compelling than ever in this environment of escalating tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, geopolitical risks & diversification away from US assets & the US$,” said UBS analysts.
Additionally, central bankers have been adding gold to their portfolios. China, the world’s largest gold consumer, China added gold to its holdings for the fifth consecutive month, boosting its demand for the precious metal as a safe haven asset in the face of mounting global trade and geopolitical tensions.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned hawkish last week, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that the US economy is in a good place, though some sectors are slowing down. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
WTI Crude Oil went into the weekend near the 63.500 mark before the long holiday weekend began. The price from a mid and long-term perspective looks low, but after suffering values which challenged the 55.000 level and below on the 9th of March, the higher realm now looks like a technical accomplishment.
Sentiment in WTI Crude Oil is clearly being effected by nervous conditions in the broad markets, which fear potential implications of tariffs from the U.S White House and the possibility this could trigger less demand for energy.
Following this long holiday weekend WTI Crude Oil will battle tariff shadows again, but the move higher produced last week which showed that support is near the 60.000 level might be a sign some large traders are feeling a bit more optimistic about their outlooks. However, news developments will continue to be heard and day traders should brace for sudden shifts in sentiment which could be seen.
The current price in WTI Crude Oil is certainly within the lower part of its long-term track record. Any prices below the 66.000 USD level can be thought to be rather low in the commodity. Before the onslaught of selling which erupted in the first week of April due to concerns about Trump tariff policies, WTI Crude Oil was flirting with nearly 72.000 USD per barrel.
Day traders need to remain cautious in WTI Crude Oil and all commodities in the coming days, there is still a lot of dynamic influence large players could cause. Looking for higher prices in WTI Crude Oil which are not overly ambitious may feel correct, but speculators should keep their targets realistic and watch the broad markets like equity indices as a barometer. If prices climb above 64.000 USD early this week and sustain higher values this would be a sign large players are still focusing on further price recovery.
The current price of WTI Crude Oil is certainly within the lowest aspects of its long-term range. A look at six month and one year charts show that anything below the $66.000 level looks relatively cheap.
However, for the $66.000 level to be achieved it will mean that optimistic impetus will somehow have to be triggered in WTI Crude Oil, and for the moment that still feels like it is wishful thinking.
Day traders need to look at technical charts from the past week and consider the potential that a range between 62.500 and 64.500 may be a lower trading realm which will prove durable for the moment.
Yet, there is always the possibility for a change of attitudes being driven by large speculative trades, and positive rhetoric from the White House.
WTI Crude Oil has been hit with volatility because it is one of the key commodities in the global economy. If tariff implications continue to be debated without clarity for solutions, large traders may remain nervous. However, the ability of the commodity to ebb higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week before the long holiday weekend may indicate traders were a bit less nervous.
Day traders should watch the first handful of hours in WTI Crude Oil as it begins to trade this week to gauge behavioral sentiment. The broad markets and the energy sector remain in fragile price ranges. Although some recovery of value was demonstrated last week, conditions are not abundantly optimistic. A wagering environment may continue to hold the power in the coming days as a tendency for optimistic outlooks fights with potential calls of retaliatory actions by some nations being confronted by U.S tariffs.
The high for the week was a successful test of resistance at the 200% projection of a rising ABCD pattern that began from the August 2018 lows. It was also in the region of $3,335, which is the 261.8% extension for the bearish correction that began from the 2011 peak. Both price levels are derived from long-term patterns. So far, the targets seem to be recognized by the market. But given the sustained signs of strength, the quickening uptrend may continue.
Global Uncertainty and Gold’s Rise
Gold has benefited from rising global uncertainty and it may continue to do so. Therefore, a decisive advance above this week’s high of $3,358, has gold next targeting the $3,383 price zone as that is the 127.2% projection for a rising ABCD pattern (purple) that began from the February swing low (A). Then, a little higher is the projection for a recent small bull pennant pattern that triggered on Wednesday at $3,454. The 161.8% projection for the rising ABCD pattern is then at $3,498.
Strength Retained but Short-term Risk Remains
Although the rising angle of ascent in the price of gold is a sign of strong and growing demand, it also indicates that the trend may be extended with the risk of a correction increasing. The top of two rising trend channels were broken recently. Subsequently, a pullback to test support around the prior trend high of $3,246 and near potential support of a top channel line, would be normal and retain the near-term bullish outlook for gold. However, a decline below Tuesday’s low of $3,208 could lead to a deeper pullback.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Following a lower swing high of $4.25 on March 3, the bearish correction from the recent peak of $4.90 accelerated to the downside. This can be seen as the price of natural gas was rejected from the top of the channel. It then fell back below the 50-Day MA and then the midline (green dashes) of a falling trend channel as highlighted in red. The original channel is bound by blue trendlines, and a 25% extension was added to the bottom with a green lower line.
Over the past several days resistance was successfully tested around the lower blue channel line, and it has held up so far. Once prior support becomes resistance, the downtrend may be ready to continue. In summary, these are bearish signs. Natural gas remains in a clear downtrend and bearish momentum has been increasing.
Sitting on Potential Reversal Zone
Despite the overall bearish indications, natural gas is in a position that could lead to a bullish reversal. A potential support zone around the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of $3.21 has been tested as support for several days and again on Thursday with a new retracement low of $3.19. It continues to indicate support even though there is a recent series of lower daily lows and is supported by the lower end of the descending channel. Now, on Thursday an outside day was produced as a new trend low was reached earlier in the session followed by a rise above Wednesday’s high.
Strength Signaled Above $3.33
A bullish breakout and possible one-day bullish reversal will trigger on a rally above $3.33. The first stop on the way up looks to be a recent interim lower swing high from Monday. Further up is the 20-Day MA, now at $3.73, followed by another lower swing high at $3.83. Subsequently, the 50-Day MA may indicate signs of resistance. It is now at $3.90.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Despite downward pressure, natural gas will complete an outside day as there was an advance above Wednesday’s high of $3.32 to $3.33 today. Recent highs indicate that the market seems to be recognizing the declining channel lines. Although natural gas continues to show weakness as it may end the day at its lower daily closing price for the corrective decline, which previously was $3.27 from Wednesday, it may close today below the lower boundary line of the original channel (blue lines).
Optimism May Return Above $3.33
Nevertheless, a decisive rally above Thursday’s high of $3.33 triggers a one-day bullish reversal and reclaims the lower end of the original channel. A daily close above today’s high would then be needed to confirm strength. There are two initial potential upside targets, while the middle green dashed line of the channel can help as a guide. The first upside target is the most recent interim lower swing high at $3.61, followed by the 20-Day MA, currently at $3.73. Keep in mind that since the 20-Day line is falling it may reach the area around the $3.61 level or lower before it is tested as resistance.
Lower Support Zone Starts at $3.19
On the downside, if natural gas continues to fall below $3.19 and keeps going, there are several reasons that support may be seen within a range of $3.08 to $2.99. The potentially significant 200-Day MA is within that range at $3.06 currently.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The World Trade Organization now forecasts a 0.2% contraction in global goods trade this year, adding to the risk-off tone. Meanwhile, the weakening DXY has enhanced gold’s relative appeal for foreign investors.
Fed Policy and Economic Data Offer Mixed Signals
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution on rate cuts, pointing to persistent inflation and uneven economic momentum. Markets still price in 86 basis points of cuts by year-end 2025, with July flagged as the earliest likely move.
U.S. jobless claims declined to 215,000, suggesting labor market resilience, though continuing claims ticked up to 1.885 million. March housing data was mixed—permits rose 1.6%, while starts slipped.
Outlook: Momentum Intact, but Caution Prevails
Despite the recent pullback, gold’s broader trend remains constructive. As long as rate uncertainty lingers and trade risks persist, investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is likely to remain firm.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold holds above $3,322 support as trade risks and a weak dollar sustain safe-haven demand. Silver eyes $33.11 resistance, but momentum hinges on holding key support near $32.12.
