• Silver price faces pressure amid improving global risk sentiment following Trump’s announcement of exemptions on technology products from “reciprocal” tariffs.
• Trump simultaneously initiated a probe into potential tariffs on critical minerals, intensifying trade tensions with China.
• Safe-haven demand for Silver is supported by ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session, paring some of its gains from the previous day. The precious metal is under pressure as global risk sentiment improves following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of exemptions for key technology products from newly proposed “reciprocal” tariffs.

The exemptions, which cover smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat-panel displays, primarily benefit goods manufactured in China. However, Silver’s downside remains limited as Trump simultaneously launched a probe into potential tariffs on critical minerals, further escalating trade tensions with China. The investigation also extends to sectors like copper, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors, highlighting the US’s limited domestic production capacity in these areas.

Safe-haven demand for Silver is also underpinned by persistent uncertainty around US trade policy, along with subdued demand for the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury securities. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 99.50, while yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury notes stand at 3.80% and 4.30%, respectively.

Meanwhile, dovish signals from major central banks continue to support non-yielding assets like bullion. Softer-than-expected inflation in the US, Canada, UK, India, and the Euro Area in March—alongside the PBoC’s potential rate cut this quarter—further bolsters the case for precious metals.

• Gold price hits fresh record highs of $3,358 early Thursday, then retreats.  
• US-Japan trade optimism lifts risk sentiment and the US Dollar alongside.
• Heavily overbought RSI on the daily chart continue to caution XAU/USD buyers.

Gold price has paused its record run to near the $3,360 region early Thursday as buyers digest this week’s tariff play by US President Donald Trump heading into a light Holy Friday.

Gold price could extend the pullback on profit-taking

This week, the resumption of the Gold price record-setting rally could be mainly linked to the escalation of US-China trade war and the uncertainty over US tariffs’ implementation across all its major trading partners.

Increased demand for safe-haven assets and unabated fears over a potential recession in the United States (US) continued to power Gold price advance.

“Chip stocks across the globe were pummelled on Wednesday after Dutch giant ASML warned that tariffs were increasing uncertainty around its outlook for 2025 and 2026. Also weighing on sentiment was the American artificial intelligence (AI) pioneer Nvidia warning of a $5.5 billion hit after Washington restricted exports of its AI processor tailored for China,” per Reuters.

Aggravating US-Sino trade tensions, China reportedly instructed its airlines not to take any more deliveries of Boeing Co planes, Bloomberg reported. 

However, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious stance on the interest rate outlook and the US-Japan constructive trade talks remain a headwind for the bright metal, providing some reprieve to the US Dollar (USD).

At the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, Powell said, “for the time being, we are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Powell warned of increased stagflation risks due to the likely impact of the US tariffs.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Thursday that talks with the US were constructive, adding that the government will continue to consider trade negotiations a top priority.

In the day ahead, Gold price could see a corrective decline as traders might take profits off the table on their Gold longs ahead of the Good Friday holiday-thinned markets. Amid tariffs uncertainty, markets will prefer to reposition, gearing up for more tariff headlines next week.

In the meantime, the focus will remain on the meeting between Trump and Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni, due later on Thursday. Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that the European Union (EU) expects most of the US import tariffs to remain in place after little progress was made in the latest talks.

Meanwhile, Gold traders will also take cues from the mid-tier weekly US Jobless Claims and housing data.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays heavily overbought, currently near 75, hinting at a likely correction.

However, if Gold buyers find acceptance above the $3,350 level on a daily closing basis, the next upside target will be seen at the $3,400 threshold.

Conversely, the corrective decline could initially test the $3,300 demand area, below which the $3,250 psychological level could come into play.

Further south, Gold sellers will keep sight on the $3,200 mark.

Holding Potential Support Zone

Although a minor bearish trend continuation signal triggered today, there remains a possibility that support around the 88.6% retracement at $3.21 could hold. Notice that the lower end (25% extended) of a descending trend channel (blue lines) is nearby, and it represents an area of potential support as well. That would change on a decisive drop below today’s low. Notice that today’s high found resistance at the bottom of a lower channel line, in blue. Since that line was previously identifying support, today’s price action recognized it as resistance. This is a bearish sign as a downtrend typically progresses in this manner.

Rally Above $3.32 Could Change Bearish Outlook

A one-day bullish reversal above today’s high of $3.32 may start to change the near-term bearish outlook if it leads to a daily close above that price level. Otherwise, a decline below today’s low signals another continuation signal and improves the chance that the next lower potential support zone is tested. It starts with the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at $3.08. That is where the change in price in the two downswings of the current correction match. Once there is a match, a potential pivot level is identified, in this case support.

200-Day Moving Average Target

The 200-Day MA is slightly below that target at $3.06 and is rising. Therefore, it could converge with the ABCD pattern target upon approach. Since the 200-Day MA is a long-term trend indicator, it takes priority over the pattern target. But if the two indicators identify the same or a very similar price level, that price level gains in significance. Since the 200-Day MA hasn’t been approached as support since October 2024, it should do so if touched soon. Bearish momentum has dominated since the lower swing high (C), so natural gas would be approaching that potential support area potentially near the end of the trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bullish Momentum Increases

The acceleration in the angle of ascent for gold is a sign that it is likely getting closer to a potentially significant high. Gold may be in a runaway move that could continue to surprise on the upside. Three potential targets where resistance might have been seen were exceeded today, and gold looks to be on its way to the next higher target at $3,355.

The rising ABCD pattern shown on the chart has a 127.2% extended target at $3,383. The initial 100% target at $3,291 was exceeded today. Targets only show potential areas of interest where resistance may be seen, or a bullish continuation signaled on a breakout through the price area.

Multiple Bullish Indications

This week’s advance follows a long bullish engulfing pattern from last week as seen in the weekly chart (not shown). It reflected aggressive buying and occurred following the channel breakouts, which also indicated more aggressive buying. This means that higher targets might also be considered, Specifically, the estimated target from the pennant pattern assuming it follows through to completion is approximately $3,454.

Again, this doesn’t mean that the target will be reached in a reasonable time, only that it could be. The price level is roughly around 5% above current prices. The projection estimates that the price appreciation seen in the sharp portion of the rally before the pennant formed, may be repeated following an upside breakout. So far, it looks like gold is off to a good start.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,329.78

• Renewed trade tensions between the US and China fuel demand for safety.
• Fitch Ratings lowered its forecast for world growth amid the trade war escalation.
• XAU/USD retains gains near record highs, rally far from over.

As the trade war resumed, so did Gold’s rally. The XAU/USD pair traded as high as $3,333.10 in the American afternoon on Wednesday, a fresh record high. Tensions between the United States (US) and China escalated after US President Donald Trump said China could face levies up to 245%, as a result of Beijing’s retaliatory actions.

Additionally, Trump launched an investigation into the “national security risks posed by US reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products.”

As a result, Fitch Ratings published a report stating that it has sharply lowered its forecasts for world growth in response to the severe escalation in the global trade war. In a special update to its quarterly Global Economic Outlook, Fitch has cut world growth in 2025 by 0.4pp and China and US growth by 0.5pp from the March edition.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair trades near its record high, and the daily chart supports another leg north. Technical indicators aim firmly north within overbought readings, while the pair remains far above all bullish moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently hovers around $3,100, turning into a strong mid-term dynamic support should Gold finally correct lower.

The 4-hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator heads north well above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates at around 80, reflecting extreme overbought conditions yet far from suggesting XAU/USD may change course anytime soon. At the same time, the 20 SMA keeps advancing firmly higher, far above the longer ones, in line with the dominant bullish trend.

Support levels: 3,317.20 3,305.65 3,292.80

Resistance levels: 3,335.00 3,350.00 3,375.00

The CADCHF confirmed the continuation of the bearish track by providing repeated closes within the bearish channel’s levels, besides reaching below the extra barrier at 0.6010, to notice continuing providing negative trading and holding near 0.5865.

Note that the convergence of the main indicators by providing negative momentum will increase the negative pressures on the current period trading, to keep waiting for targeting 0.5775 level, and surpassing it will lead the price to attack the bearish channel’s support at 0.5640.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.5775 and 0.5925

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price surrendered to the sideways bias domination by its repeated fluctuation between 38.2% Fibonacci correction level, which represents extra support at $4.5000, while 50%Fibonacci correction level at $4.6600 represents an extra barrier against the attempt of resuming the bullish attack.

Noticing the stability of the moving average 55 above the current extra support, to reinforce the chances for renewing the bullish attempts, and surpassing $4.6600 level is important for opening the way for achieving extra gains that might extend towards $4.7500 and $4.8200.

The expected trading range for today is between 3.7500 and 4.0500

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair ended yesterday’s trading by providing new negative close below 189.90 resistance, to be forced to form mixed sideways trading by its stability near 189.00, due to the continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators, specifically by stochastic approach from 80 level as appears in the above image.

The price success to gain the negative momentum will allow it to renew the negative trading, to press on 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 187.85, as breaking it will extend the trading towards the next negative target near 186.50, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will cancel the negative suggestion, and makes the price begin building a new bullish track, to target several positive stations that begin at 190.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 187.85 and 189.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver price rises as ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy boosts safe-haven demand.
• A softer US Dollar is also lending support, making the dollar-denominated metal more appealing to overseas buyers.
• President Trump has called for an investigation into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is inching higher after recent losses, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during Wednesday’s Asian session. The uptick comes as lingering uncertainty over US trade policy continues to fuel safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

A weaker US Dollar (USD) is also supporting Silver prices, making the dollar-denominated asset more attractive to foreign buyers. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower near 99.80 at the time of writing. Market attention now turns to the upcoming US Retail Sales data for March, which could shed light on the impact of tariff tensions on consumer spending.

Safe-haven flows into Silver were further bolstered after US President Donald Trump called for an investigation into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports. This move signals a more aggressive trade stance and raises the risk of tensions with key suppliers, including China. It also partially offsets the market optimism sparked by recent exemptions on certain tech products and possible exclusions for auto parts.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller attempted to calm market nerves, saying that any inflation arising from tariffs would likely be temporary. Waller also reaffirmed the Fed’s willingness to lower interest rates if needed, signaling the central bank’s commitment to supporting growth. Investors now await the US retail sales report and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day for further direction on the economic and monetary policy outlook.

• Gold price resumes its record rally on Wednesday, with eyes on $3,300.  
• China’s annual Q1 GDP beats expectations but US tariff uncertainty looms, aiding Gold price upside.
• Gold price is back in the overbought zone on the daily chart; US Retail Sales and Powell eyed.

Gold price is consolidating its latest uptick to a new record high of $3,275 early Wednesday as buyers take a breather in anticipation of the top-tier US Retail Sales data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech due later in the day.

Gold price keenly awaits Powell and tariff talks

Gold price preserves its renewed bullish momentum from the previous day after fairly upbeat growth and activity data from China, the world’s second biggest economy. China’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) beat expectations with 5.4% year-over-year (YoY) while the country’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production also reported a bigger-than-expected growth in March.

Despite the improvement in China’s macro picture in the first quarter, looming risks from US tariffs impact dim its outlook, keeping investors on the edge while maintaining the safe-haven demand for Gold price. China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), however, said that “US tariffs will not change the long-term improving trend in China’s economy.”

Heightened markets’ nervousness heading into China data dump propelled Gold price to a fresh all-time high. Additionally, the traditional safe-haven Gold price also capitalized a fresh risk-aversion wave in Asia as traders reacted negatively to the overnight slump in the American artificial intelligence (AI) leader Nvidia, who said that the US government will begin requiring a license to export the company’s H20 chips to China, citing about a likely $5.5 billion hit to the company.

Meanwhile, the US-China trade war fears show no signs of abating after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported early Wednesday, citing sources, the Trump administration may use tariff negotiations to try to pressure US trading partners to limit dealings with China.

This comes after Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that the European Union (EU) expects most of the US import tariffs to remain in place after little progress was made in the latest talks.

Escalating trade tensions and increasing recession risks continue to power the Gold price. Furthermore, ANZ Bank raised its year-end Gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce and its six-month forecast to $3,500, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.

Traders eagerly look forward to the high-impact US Retail Sales data for March and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for hints on the state of the US economy and the Fed’s interest rate outlook, in the face of heightened geopolitical and economic risks.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has re-entered the overbought region, currently near 71, warranting caution for buyers.

If they manage to sustain above the $3,275 level on a daily closing basis, a test of the $3,300 mark will be inevitable, opening the door toward the $3,350 psychological mark.

Conversely, the initial support aligns at the $3,200 threshold, below which the April 11 low of $3,176 will be challenged.

Additional declines could test the $3,100 round level, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance-turned-support closes in.