• Gold price rebounds toward record highs of $3,246 after the previous pullback.  
• Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs creates uncertainty, underpinning Gold’s safe-haven appeal.
• Gold remains poised for a fresh leg higher on bullish technical setup on the daily chart.

Gold price is bouncing back toward the record highs of $3,246 set on Monday as buyers fight back control despite a sense of calm across the financial markets early Tuesday.

Gold price to remain at the mercy of tariff talks

The US bond market seems to have stabilized after a brutal last week as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields fell about 10 basis points (bps), reversing a part of the recent 50 bps relentless rally.

Investors take a breather, pausing the rotation out of the US assets, digesting the ongoing back-and-forth on US President Donald Trump’s tariff headlines while bracing for the earnings results from top American banks and tech companies.

The risk reset allows the US Dollar (USD) to find its feet following the massive sell-off to three-year troughs.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday he was considering modifying the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada and other places, noting that car companies “need a little bit of time because they’re going to make ’em here.”

This comes after the Trump administration announced exemptions on some technology imports, including smartphones, computers, laptops and disc drives, from reciprocal tariffs imposed on China. But Trump clarified that these products will be subject to the 20% existing tariffs on China, not the steep 145% tariffs. Trump said he “will announce the tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week.”

However, markets continue to remain wary amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies, and his constant backpedalling on tariffs raises worries over the global economic outlook, keeping the sentiment around the traditional Gold price underpinned.

Further, increased dovish bets surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts also continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold price. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that “the Trump administration’s tariff policies are a major shock to the US economy that could lead the Fed to cut rates to head off recession even if inflation remains high,” per Reuters.

Meanwhile, markets ignored comments from Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic, who suggested that the US central bank should stay on hold until there is more clarity. They continued pricing in about 85 bps of rate cuts by December, with an 80% probability that the Fed will hold rates at its May 7 policy meeting.

Gold price also draws support from increased investment flows into China’s physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) so far this month, according to the latest data published by the World Gold Council (WGC).

Looking ahead, the further upside in Gold price will likely remain at the mercy of Trump’s tariff headlines and the upcoming Fedspeak as the US calendar remains devoid of top-tier economic data publication.

Investors also remain unnerved ahead of China’s first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release on Wednesday, which could significantly impact the broader market sentiment and the Gold price action.

On Monday, China Customs reported a 12.4% surge in the country’s exports in March from a year earlier as Chinese companies rushed to ship goods before higher US tariffs took effect.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the overbought region, currently near 69, pointing to more gains in the near term. T

The record high of $3,246 is the immediate topside barrier for Gold buyers. Scaling that level will open the door toward the $3,300 mark

Alternatively, the initial support aligns at the $3,200 threshold, below which the April 11 low of $3,176 will be challenged.

Additional declines could test the $3,100 round level, followed by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance-turned-support at $3,084.

Bearish Momentum Dominates

Trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and natural gas looks poised to close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Currently, the low for the day is $3.31. Monday’s session began with a brief rally above Friday’s high to a high of $3.61. A retest of resistance around the center line of a falling parallel trend channel occurred before sellers took back control. A bearish outside day subsequently formed as Friday’s low was busted. Furthermore, the lower line of the descending parallel channel has also failed to hold as support.

Test of 200-Day Moving Average Likely

This puts natural gas in a position to possibly test support around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.05. There are several other indicators pointing out that price zone as possible support. A falling ABCD pattern completes at $3.08, while a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at $3.03, coinciding with support from the January 31 swing low at $2.99. In addition, a breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern triggered on a move above $3.02 in November. Therefore, along with the last-January swing low, the current decline may provide a retest of that breakout zone.

Multiple Signs of Support Around $3.05

The 200-Day MA was last reclaimed in September of last year and that was followed by a successful test of the line as support later in October. Since then, the price of natural gas has not approached the 200-Day line. Therefore, given the indicator confluence around the 200-Day line, the expectation is for support to be seen. Moreover, although a decline below the line is a bearish sign. Natural gas has been falling since a high of $4.90 and it may run out of bearish momentum by the time it tests the 200-Day MA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) settles after a slight rise in its recent intraday trading, after witnessing fluctuated trading all day, attempting to breach the stubborn resistance level at $84,500, supported by the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short- term basis, accompanied by the positive signals that appear on the (RSI).

Signs of Strength Remain

Friday’s advance to a high of $32.31 completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $32.19 and tested resistance at another trendline. The day ended at the high of the day and at the trendline but above the Fibonacci level. Signs of strength continued Monday, today, as silver traded in the top half of last Friday’s wide range day. It is on track to close strong, near the highs of the day and possibly above last week’s high. Therefore, a daily close above $32.31 will confirm the bull trend continuation signal.

Momentum Slows

Nevertheless, in the short-term silver may be extended as it challenges a key resistance zone. In particular, the 50-Day MA is at $32.51. It was a key trend indicator showing potential support until it failed on April 3, as silver fell sharply through the 20-Day MA, the 50-Day MA, and an uptrend line in one day. The decline was confirmed with a daily close below the trendline.

Prior support of the uptrend was successfully tested as resistance last Friday and then again today. Since silver has advanced by as much as $4.08 or 14.4% as of today’s high, bullish momentum may not be strong enough to reclaim the 50-Day MA and keep rising. A pullback or consolidation may come first. That was a relatively sharp advance in a short amount of time.

50-Day Line Challenges the Advance

However, if silver can reclaim the 50-Day line and then keep rising, the 20-Day MA could see signs of resistance, now at $32.66, and the 78.6% retracement is at $33.25. Either price level could see signs of resistance. A daily close above the 50-Day MA will show continued strength and improve the chance of siler continuing higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,207.24

• The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank will announce monetary policy decisions this week.
• Uncertainty about US tariffs on China dented the mood in the American session.
• XAU/USD corrected overbought conditions, may soon resume its advance.

Spot Gold trades above the $3,200 mark in the American session down on a daily basis amid a better market mood. Investors’ attention lies elsewhere, with g Asian and European stocks posting gains amid easing tariffs-related concerns. As it happened lately, demand for the US Dollar (USD) is limited amid concerns United States (US) President Donald Trump tariffs will put the world’s largest economy one step closer to recession.

Headlines, however, are still unclear. The White House announced over the weekend that some technology imports from China will be exempted from the reciprocal tariffs, yet still subject to the initial 20% levy. However, Trump stated on Monday that Chinese-made smartphones and other electronics will not be exempt from tariffs – adding they are moving into a different levy “bucket”.

The latest on Trump weighed on Wall Street. After a strong start to the day, US indexes are in retreat mode, helping XAU/USD to remain afloat.

The shortened week due to Easter holidays will anyway include two central banks’ monetary policy announcements: The Bank of Canada (BoC) will unveil its decision on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) will do the same on Thursday. In the meantime, the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada will release inflation updates. As for the US, the macroeconomic calendar seems pretty quiet, although multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will be on the wires throughout the upcoming sessions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it holds inside Friday’s range, having surpassed its record high for a few cents. Technical indicators, in the meantime, eased from extreme levels, with limited downward strength. Indicators are reflecting the ongoing near-term slide, rather than suggesting the bullish run is over. At the same time, the pair develops far above all its moving averages, which maintain solid bullish slopes, in line with the dominant bullish trend.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD downward correction seems to be complete. The Momentum indicator has ticked higher above its 100 line after correcting extreme readings, while the Relative Strength index (RSI) indicator seems to stabilize at around 63. At the same time, a bullish 20 SMA offers support at around $3,170.90, while heading firmly higher above also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.

Support levels: 3,193.30 3,181.15 3,170.90

Resistance levels: 3,215.40 3,231.60 3,245.75

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has shown itself to be somewhat resilient near this crucial $3.50 level. And I think that is going to be the main story here, resiliency. The $3.50 level, of course, is a large round, psychologically significant figure that people will be paying close attention to. But I would also bring to your attention that it is where a major trend line hangs out. And just below there, we have the 200 day EMA. The 200 day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of longer term traders will be paying close attention to. And therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where we could see a lot of noise here. Keep in mind that natural gas is going to start to see a lack of demand soon, mainly due to the seasonality, as it is a major component in heating.

It also produces a lot of electricity in the United States as well. So, if the economy slows down, it’s possible that natural gas demand will fall off of a cliff. I’m not necessarily expecting that right away, but I do recognize that we have a situation where natural gas is at a major inflection point that we need to pay close attention to. If we were to break down below the $3.30 level and take out the 200-day EMA, then I think you’ve got a real shot at this market falling even further, perhaps down to the $3 level.

Crude oil prices rose in its recent intraday trading, challenging the key resistance level at $61.50, supported by a short-term bullish correctional wave and the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, the price is also facing a strong obstacle, which is the resistance of the EMA50.

Created on April 14, 2025

Bearish view

• Sell the WTI crude oil and set a take-profit at $55.
• Add a stop-loss at $65.
• Timeline: 1-5 days.

Bullish view

• Buy crude oil and set a take-profit at $65.
• Add a stop-loss at $55.

The WTI crude oil price crashed to $55 last week, its lowest level since February 2021 as demand concerns coincided with higher oil OPEC output. It then bounced back to end the week at $61.43.

Crude oil faces demand and supply shocks

The WTI crude oil price outlook is bearish as the industry battles numerous demand and supply concerns.

The main demand aspect is that there are concerns that the US and other countries may move into a recession this year. In a note last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned that demand could drop as uncertainties remains. It also slashed demand estimate for this year and 2025.

At the same time, oil producers are preparing production increases this year. OPEC member countries voted to increase production gradually in the coming months.

Donald Trump is also aiming to boost US oil production as he seeks to lower inflation and ease regulations. He campaigned on a “drill, baby, drill” mantra, which involves boosting production, which currently stands at 13.5 million barrels a day. Any trade deal with other countries will likely involve them buying more oil to reduce the US deficit.

The United States is talking to Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. Any potential deal would end the sanctions that the US and other countries have placed on Russia, a move that would bring more oil online.

Additionally, the US is negotiating with Iran on ending its nuclear power program. A deal would also involve the Trump administration removing sanctions on Iranian oil that have reduced its exports in the past few months.

The WTI crude oil price will react to trade news this week. Signs of de-escalation between China and the US will likely be a bullish sign for oil prices.

WTI crude oil price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the WTI crude oil price has been in a downward trend in the past few months. It has formed a descending triangle pattern, a popular bearish sign in the technical analysis.

The price has moved below all moving averages and the lower side of the descending triangle pattern. The widest point of this triangle is 38%, meaning that the longer-term target is about $40. This target was achieved by measuring the same distance from the lower side of this triangle.

In the short term, however, the WTI crude oil price may retest the lower side of this triangle and then resume the downtrend.

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Natural gas price continued resisting the negative pressures, by its stability above $3.350 level, to decrease the chances for suffering extra losses, and increase the chances for activating the bullish track, due to stochastic exit from the oversold levels as appear in the above image.

The price rally is expected toward the extra resistance at $3.640, confirming that surpassing it is important to confirm regaining the bullish bias, by its rally directly to the positive stations near $3.950 reaching $4.180 in the medium period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $3.950

Trend forecast: Bullish