Natural gas price lost the positive momentum recently, which forces it to settle below the obstacle at 4,180$, to form a temporary negative rebound, to keep its stability above the extra support at 3,750$.
We expect the price affection by the sideways bias domination, to attempt to gain the required positive momentum, to expect targeting 4,050 level, then repeat the attempt of breaching the mentioned obstacle, while facing new negative pressures might push the price to resume the correctional decline, to suffer extra losses by reaching 3,560$ before any attempt to achieve the waited positive targets.
The expected trading range for today is between 3,750$ and 4,050$
Copper price began today’s trading with sharp negativity, where it approached from the main bullish channel’s support at 3.9500$, then attempts to recover clearly by bounding towards 4,3800$, getting advantage from stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level as appears in the above image.
we don’t suggest positive trading unless breaching the barrier at 4,5600$, to expect renewing the negative trading in order to renew the pressure on the main support, where breaking it will confirm its move to the bearish track, 3,8100 forms the initial negative target reaching 3,6600.
The expected trading range for today is between 4,000$ and 4,5200$
Platinum price continued to form negative trading to reach 890.00$, to begin decreasing the losses by its rebound above the support at 900.00$ level, which represents a historical support as appears in the above image, recovering some of the losses by its stability near 933.00.
Note that the price stability below the broken bullish channel’s support at 958.00$, which forms a main factor to confirm the negative scenario, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra negative momentum, attempting to renew the pressure on the mentioned historical support, while breaking it will extend the losses towards 858.00$ and 880.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 880.00$ and 945.00$
Silver price recovers some lost ground to near $30.05, adding 1.80% on the day.
The concerns over tariff wars and potential global recession boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Silver price.
Traders will take more cues from the US March CPI inflation data, which is due later on Wednesday.
The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers to around $30.05 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The white metal edges higher as the fear of tariff wars and the potential global recession boost the safe-haven demand.
Silver price has witnessed heightened volatility since last week in response to the US imposing reciprocal trade tariffs on key trading partners. Mounting fears of recession over the impact of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs dampen market sentiment and undermine the precious metals.
Furthermore, strong industrial demand, especially from new-age industries like EVs and solar energy, creates tailwinds for the white metal. Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems will continue to boost product offerings.
Silver generally moves with gold, but industrial applications such as electronics and photovoltaics account for more than half of world demand, which is estimated to be approximately 700.2 million troy ounces by 2024, according to the Silver Institute industry association.
Traders will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for March, which will be published later on Thursday. If the report shows cooler-than-expected inflation in the US, this might lift the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Goldman Sachs revised down its annual average price forecasts again for Brent and WTI crude in 2026, citing increased recession risks and the possibility of higher-than-expected OPEC+ supply.
In a note dated April 6, the bank cut its 2026 average price forecast by $4 for Brent to $58 a barrel and WTI to $55.
The Wall Street brokerage initially trimmed on Friday its 2026 average price forecast for Brent to $62 and for WTI to $59, and warned that the new estimates could be further reduced.
Goldman Sachs now expects oil demand to grow by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 600,000 bpd, and to increase by 400,000 bpd in 2026.
The bank attributes the reduction in demand growth to the negative influence of a weaker GDP, which outweighs support from a weaker dollar and lower oil prices.
“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman said.
Oil prices slid on Monday, deepening last week’s losses, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude.
China on Friday struck back at the U.S tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump with a slew of counter-measures including extra levies of 34% on all U.S. goods and export curbs on some rare-earths.
Brent crude BRN1! was trading around $63.87 a barrel, as of 0321 GMT on Friday, while WTI CL1! was at $60.38.
“While the uncertainty around compliance and OPEC8+ production is very large, we still assume that the four months of OPEC8+ crude increases will total around 0.7-0.8 mb/d,” the bank added.
Gold price slumps to near $2,985 in Monday’s early Asian session.
The stock market selloff has prompted investors to cover losses.
Intensifying trade war and geopolitical risks could boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Gold price.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $2,985 during the early Asian session on Monday, pressured by some profit-taking. The precious metal extends the decline as a fall in the US stock market has prompted traders to liquidate gold positions to create the necessary liquidity to cover losses in the stock market.
The recent sharp sell-off in the US stock market on Friday was about raising cash to cover margin calls after US President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs on goods from many countries. However, the downside for the yellow metal might be limited due to the supportive fundamentals. “Bargain hunters will rush in next week to buy cheap gold and silver, helping the precious metals to rally again,” said Rich Checkan, chairman and CEO of Asset Strategies International.
Additionally, the global economic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. Russians shelled more than 30 localities in the Kherson region, including residential areas of Kherson. Seven people were wounded, the Kherson regional military administration’s Oleksandr Prokudin reported. Despite the volatility,” gold is still a safe-haven place for many investors,” said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Production Holds Steady Despite Falling Rig Counts
Despite a drop in the U.S. natural gas rig count—down seven last week to just 96—output remains strong. Lower-48 dry gas production averaged 106.4 Bcf/d on Friday, up over 4% from a year ago. This persistent output is meeting softening demand head-on. Industrial and residential usage remains subdued, and power burn, while stable, has yet to show the typical seasonal ramp-up. The result is a market with more supply than it currently needs, particularly in the absence of weather-related demand spikes.
Did the Latest Storage Report Shift Market Expectations?
Yes. The EIA reported a 29 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending March 28, well above the five-year average draw for that period. While inventories are still 21.5% lower than last year and 4.3% below the five-year norm, the size of the early injection signaled that mild weather and excess supply are beginning to rebuild stockpiles earlier than expected. This has added to the near-term bearish tone, especially as traders focus on the potential for larger-than-usual builds in the coming weeks.
Can LNG Exports Offset Domestic Weakness?
LNG exports remain a bright spot, with flows to U.S. export terminals holding near 15.5 Bcf/d. While down slightly from the prior week, they continue to support baseline demand. Longer term, President Trump’s move to lift restrictions on LNG export project approvals has reactivated a backlog of infrastructure proposals. If even a portion of these projects moves forward, it would meaningfully increase export capacity and help balance domestic oversupply. For now, however, the export story is more supportive for long-term pricing than for the current supply-demand mismatch.
Market Forecast: Bearish Near Term on Demand and Supply Imbalance
The short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Weaker weather-driven demand, strong production, and early-season storage builds are tilting the market toward oversupply. Unless colder weather unexpectedly returns or LNG demand accelerates, prices may continue to face downward pressure in the week ahead.
Spence copper mine in the North of Chile. (Credit: Consejo Minero)
Chile, the world’s largest producer of copper, is preparing to slash its official price estimate for 2025, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.
The Chilean government will cut the estimated average price to $3.90 to $4 a pound from a current projection for the year of $4.25 a pound, the WSJ said, citing a person familiar with the preliminary calculations.
Chile will publish the revised price estimate at the end of April, the newspaper said.
In February, Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, held its 2025 price forecast steady at $4.25 after raising it from $3.85 in May 2024.
The commission also extended the $4.25 forecast for 2026 and said it expected copper prices to remain over $4.00 a pound for the next decade.
Commodities prices including oil and other goods fell this week after new US tariffs fueled fears of a global recession.
However, this type of pressure is viewed as mechanical rather than sentiment-driven. Gold remains up over 15% this year, supported by record central bank buying, strong institutional interest, and ETF inflows. The pullback may prove temporary unless supported by fresh macro shifts.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Recession Fears Still Dominate
The underlying drivers of the rally are unchanged. Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian now puts U.S. recession odds at 50%, while Goldman Sachs raised its estimate to 35%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs are “larger than expected,” with fallout likely to include both slower growth and elevated inflation. With global supply chains under renewed stress, gold’s role as a hedge remains central.
Next Week Brings CPI and Fed Minutes Into Focus
Traders will be glued to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s CPI report. If the Fed minutes show internal debate or reluctance to ease aggressively, that could temper some of the rate-cut enthusiasm priced into markets. Conversely, if CPI surprises to the upside, it would reinforce inflation risks and justify gold’s safe-haven appeal—even if policy remains cautious. On Friday, consumer sentiment data could further illuminate how recent market stress is filtering through to inflation expectations.
Trump’s Tariffs Hit Industrial Demand and Sentiment
President Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs and targeted measures against China triggered a reassessment of global trade flows and manufacturing prospects. Semiconductor tariffs are particularly bearish for silver, given its widespread industrial applications. China’s response—slapping a 34% levy on all American goods—adds to fears of a drawn-out trade war. The result has been a sharp drop in global demand expectations, particularly in Asia and Europe, two major industrial buyers of silver.
Margin Calls Force Liquidation Across Commodities
A violent decline in equities—highlighted by a 2,000+ point drop in Dow futures—unleashed margin call selling across the board. Silver was hit especially hard as investors were forced to exit positions to cover losses elsewhere. While gold also saw liquidation, its safe-haven bid helped cushion losses. For silver, with weaker monetary demand and no central bank support, the impact was deeper and more sustained.
Dollar Strength, Yields, and Fed Signals in Focus
Silver’s weakness was compounded by a rising U.S. dollar and an uptick in real yields. Treasury markets stabilized after strong jobs data, pushing the 10-year yield back near 3.88%. The dollar gained as expectations for aggressive Fed cuts were scaled back. Traders now turn their attention to this week’s Fed minutes and Thursday’s CPI report, both of which could reshape policy expectations. If the minutes signal hesitation to ease, or if CPI comes in hot, silver could face further headwinds from tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar.
Market Forecast: Silver Likely to Remain Under Pressure
