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All eyes are on today’s economic news. If the actual NFP is below the forecast (169K), it will strengthen the expectations of the Fed rate…
Further signs of strength could lead to continued bullish behavior within the next pullback or consolidation. The recent advance has continued to show signs of strength as it advanced, with the more significant being the reclaim of both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.
It is interesting to note that earlier in today’s trading session natural gas began the trading session by gapping down and then falling to successfully test support around the 50-Day MA with the day’s low of $3.55. That initial decline provided bearish signals on a drop below the lows of each of the past two days. The market clearly recognized the 50-Day MA price area as the buyers clearly took back control.
There are also a couple signs of strength to be aware of on the weekly chart (not shown). The three-week high at $3.83 was exceeded today, as well as the 200-Week MA, which is at $3.91. Today’s closing price should be above each of those price levels and will therefore confirm the strength of the breakouts.
Despite strong bullish indications a pullback could come following a test of the 78.6% retracement, as noted above. There is also a former weekly high at $4.05. It provides a little more attention to that price area. Even if the $4.06 price level is exceeded to the upside the current advance is getting extended.
As of today’s high, natural gas was up by $1.02 or 34.2% from the recent $2.99 swing low. Certainly, it can go higher, but today’s spike is not happening at the beginning of the rally and therefore there might be early signs of exhaustion that has not yet been fully registered by the market.
Gold price is up on Tuesday, with XAU/USD approaching the $2,930 mark in the American session. The bright metal resumed its advance after falling to $2,876.93 on Friday, up for a second consecutive day and closing into the record high at $2,942.76 posted this month.
The US Dollar (USD) fell away from investors’ radar amid an improved mood, based on hopes that the Russia-Ukraine war would soon end. Russian and United States (US) delegations met in Riyadh to hold peace talks, although without the presence of Ukrainian leaders.
“No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine … Europe must have a seat at the table when decisions about Europe are being made,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. Nevertheless, diplomats from the US and Russia have hailed the meeting in Saudi Arabia as positive.
Meanwhile, Canada reported that the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% over the last twelve months, up from the December reading of 1.8%, and it matched analysts’ expectations. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%, higher than the -0.4% posted in December. The optimistic figures further backed the market mood.
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows buyers regained control. Technical indicators resumed their advances after correcting extreme overbought conditions, while the pair develops above all bullish moving averages. Additionally, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its firmly bullish slope far above the 100 and 200 SMA, which also head north.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD has room to extend its advance. The pair recovered above a flat 20 SMA, now providing support at around $2,909.60. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, accelerated north far below the shorter one, reflecting buyers’ dominance. Finally, technical indicators regained their upward strength, although the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 line.
Support levels: 2,909.60 2,897.10 2,876,90
Resistance levels: 2,942.75 2,960.00 2,975.00
The NZDCAD price formed correctional bullish rebound recently after facing 50% Fibonacci correction level at 0.8035, in addition to stochastic rally towards 80 level, to notice recording some gains by settling near 0.8105.
Note that the current rebound won’t affect the main bearish track due to the frequent stability below 0.8240 resistance line in addition to the MA55 crawl below this resistance, thus, we will keep waiting to gather the negative momentum to manage to renew the pressure on 0.8035 level, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations, starting at 0.7980 as a first additional target.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8035 and 0.8145
Trend forecast: Bearish
The NZDCAD price formed correctional bullish rebound recently after facing 50% Fibonacci correction level at 0.8035, in addition to stochastic rally towards 80 level, to notice recording some gains by settling near 0.8105.
Note that the current rebound won’t affect the main bearish track due to the frequent stability below 0.8240 resistance line in addition to the MA55 crawl below this resistance, thus, we will keep waiting to gather the negative momentum to manage to renew the pressure on 0.8035 level, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations, starting at 0.7980 as a first additional target.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8035 and 0.8145
Trend forecast: Bearish
Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back strongly to near $32.50 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal recovers its intraday losses and turns positive despite multiple headwinds, such as firm expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ‘higher for longer’ interest rate stance, growing optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace, and easing United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff fears.
On Monday, a slew of Fed officials stated that current monetary policy conditions are in great shape, given resilient US economic growth, still-elevated inflationary pressures, and a balanced labor market. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she would like to gain “greater confidence” that progress in lowering inflation will “continue” before considering any monetary policy adjustment.
Technically, increasing hopes that the Fed will keep interest rates steady for longer bode poorly for precious metals, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, growing optimism about peace between Russia and Ukraine is expected to keep a lid on Silver’s upside. Last week, Donald Trump confirmed that both leaders of Russia and Ukraine have agreed to peace negotiations and ordered his team to begin truce talks.
Historically, the scenario of improving geopolitical tensions diminishes the appeal of precious metals, such as Silver.
Over that, investors expect Trump’s reciprocal tariffs won’t be as fearful as previously anticipated. Trump didn’t reveal a detailed reciprocal tariff plan on Thursday, while he was expected to do so. The tariff plan is unlikely to come into effect before April as Trump nominated Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Thursday that the President will be ready to move on reciprocal tariffs by April 1.
Market participants expect US trading partners would have enough time to negotiate with Trump on reciprocity.
Silver price struggles to break above the key resistance of $32.55, which is plotted from the February 5 high. The outlook of the white metal was already bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been sloping higher, which trades around $31.70.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting that the momentum is strongly bullish.
Looking down, the February 11 low of $31.26 will be the key support for the Silver price. While, the October 31 high of $33.90 will be the key barrier.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver price fluctuates within sideways track since yesterday, noticing that the EMA50 continues to support the price from below, waiting to gather positive momentum that assist to push the price to resume the expected bullish trend for the upcoming period, which its targets begin by testing 32.86$.
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The NZDCAD price formed correctional bullish rebound recently after facing 50% Fibonacci correction level at 0.8035, in addition to stochastic rally towards 80 level, to notice recording some gains by settling near 0.8105.
Note that the current rebound won’t affect the main bearish track due to the frequent stability below 0.8240 resistance line in addition to the MA55 crawl below this resistance, thus, we will keep waiting to gather the negative momentum to manage to renew the pressure on 0.8035 level, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations, starting at 0.7980 as a first additional target.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8035 and 0.8145
Trend forecast: Bearish
No change to platinum price bullish track as it remains consolidated within the bullish channel, depending on the stability of 970.00$ support line to confirm the previously suggested bullish scenario, reminding you that it is important to gather the positive momentum to reinforce the chances of reaching the positive stations located near 1005.00$ followed by reaching 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 1018.00$.
We remind you that there will be a chance to postpone the bullish attack in case facing new negative pressures, which might push it to crawl below the current support and suffer some losses by crawling towards 958.00$ and 950.00$ levels before recording any new positive target.
The expected trading range for today is between 975.00$ and 1005.00$
Trend forecast: Bullish
Silver price edges higher and registered gains of over 0.70% on Monday as US financial markets remained closed in observance of Presidents’ Day. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $32.35 as Tuesday’s Asian session begins, virtually unchanged.
The grey metal shifted from neutral to upward biased, though a quick rejection candle printed on February 14 after hitting a three-month high of $33.39 could pave the way for further downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, but it is worth noting that as XAG/USD spiked past $33.00, the RSI failed to record a higher high, indicating that a ‘negative divergence’ looms.
If Silver drops below the February 17 swing low of $31.92, the grey metal would be poised to test the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.15. A breach of the latter will expose the 50 and 200-day SMAs, each at $30.60 and $30.42.
On the other hand, if XAG/USD rallies past $32.50, the psychological $33.00 mark would be the key resistance. Once surpassed, the year-to-date (YTD) high would be up next at $33.39.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.