Bullish Clues

In addition to the bullish key reversal day (open below prior day’s low and close above prior day’s high), the 20-Day MA was successfully tested as support earlier during Monday’s trading session. That was the first test of the line as support since the advance on October 29. Further, notice that support was tested at an initial downtrend line (blue dots) that starts from the 2023 peak and connects with the January swing high from this year. In other words, price levels are being reclaimed and strength is confirmed on a subsequent test of previous resistance as support.

Above 2.92 Triggers Next Breakout

Recent bullish signs point to a potential upside breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern in natural gas. An initial upside breakout triggers above the recent high of 2.92. However, a stronger signal would be given on a move above the recent swing high of 3.02, and then above the swing high of 3.16. The first upside target zone following a 3.02 breakout is from 3.35 to 3.45.

That price range begins with an initial target for a near-term rising ABCD pattern (D) in purple. Then, there is a previous swing high where resistance was seen in the past, at 3.39. Finally, the price range ends at 3.45, which is the target from a larger ascending ABCD pattern (orange) that incorporates the August swing low. Since there are several price levels identifying the resistance zone, there is a real potential of it being reached if demand in natural gas continues to strengthen.

Weekly Pause?

On the weekly time frame natural gas is trading inside the price range from last week. It will continue to do so unless there is an upside breakout above last week’s high of 2.92 or a drop below the low of 2.27. Given the relatively large range, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this week complete as an inside week. That would set up a potential inside week breakout for next week.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Closing Above Moving Averages is Bullish

A reclaim of the moving averages is a bullish sign but only if crude can stay above them. Currently, and interestingly, the two moving averages have converged to identify a tight price support area from 71.58 to 71.61. When that happens, a potentially more significant pivot area may be identified. Also, notice that strength was seen recently as the 20-Day line crossed back above the 50-Day line. If the moving averages can continue as support, there is the potential for a continuation upward. However, if the price of crude oil falls below each, it will be a sign of weakening with a daily close below signaling further weakness.

Initial Upside Potential to 70.78

Let’s consider the initial upside if crude can continue to strengthen. A bullish breakout is triggered on a decisive rally above the 73.15 interim swing high and then confirmed with a close above it. That would trigger a bullish reversal in crude that should see prices rise further.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is subsequently at 74.60 and it shows the next higher likely target, at a minimum. That level is also close to potential resistance around the lower boundary line of a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. Nevertheless, if crude can continue to rise from there it has the potential to breakout through the top of the triangle towards 70.78 (D). That price completes an initial target for a rising ABCD pattern that incorporates the most recent swing low of 67.33 (C).

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,741.03

• The United States presidential election dominates news feeds, US Dollar under pressure.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to trim interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
• XAU/USD holds within range for a third consecutive day, sellers dominate in the near term.

Spot Gold found modest strength on Tuesday as market participants dumped the US Dollar. The better tone of global equities and the United States (US) going to the polls weigh on the USD. The US election is taking place today, and the tight race between Democrat Vice-President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump is lasting until the last minute, with no candidate having a clear advantage.

Polls will start closing at 19:00 EST or 00:00 GMT, and the excitement on exit polls will likely move markets, although the final result could take a couple of days. The focus will be on the seven key swing states, with Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania among the first to report.

Other than that, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on Thursday. Market participants have widely anticipated a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut and, hopefully, hints towards a similar move in December. However, the outcome of the US election may well change the Fed’s path. Speculative interest fears a Trump victory could revive inflationary pressures and, hence, force the Fed to interrupt monetary loosening. Even further, some speculate the central bank may have to hike interest rates again.

Anyway, uncertainty will be cleared in the next couple of days, not only with the election result but also with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference after the rate announcement.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

Ahead of critical events, the XAU/USD pair holds within familiar levels, consolidating around the $2,740 mark. The daily chart shows the pair has lacked directional strength for three days in a row. Also, the bright metal keeps developing above all its moving average, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,710. The 100 and 200 SMAs also head north, although far below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, with modest downward slopes, not enough to confirm another leg lower.

In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. XAU/USD develops below a bearish 20 SMA, while a bullish 100 SMA provides intraday support at $2,724. Finally, technical indicators turned marginally lower below their midlines, suggesting sellers are in control of XAU/USD.

Support levels: 2,724.00 2,710.00 2,698.20

Resistance levels: 2,747.75 2,760.40 2,772.50

• Silver price stays above $32.30 ahead of US presidential elections.
• US Trump’s victory could be beneficial for the US Dollar and bond yields.
• Investors will also focus on the US ISM Services PMI for October.

Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps to near $32.60 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal remains broadly sideways above the key support of $32.30 ahead of the United States (US) presidential elections, which will start in the New York session. The asset is expected to face sharp volatility after agencies will start providing exit polls.

Traders expect a neck-to-neck competition between former US President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The outlook on precious metals relies heavily on the US election outcome. Trump’s victory could be unfavorable for precious metals, such as Silver, as he vowed to raise tariffs on imports and trim corporate taxes, which will escalate price pressures.

The scenario that will improve the outlook of the US Dollar and bond yields in an inflationary environment will prompt the need for a restrictive interest rate stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Ahead of US elections, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower to near 103.70 but remains inside Monday’s trading range. 10-year US Treasury yields wobble near 4.3%.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will also focus on the US ISM Services PMI data for October, which will be published at 15:00 GMT. The agency is expected to show that activities in the services sector expanded at a slower pace, with the index seen at 53.8 against 54.9 in September.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price strives to gain ground near the key horizontal support plotted from the May 20 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which acted as resistance earlier. The white metal wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.80.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that a bullish momentum is over for now, however, the bullish trend remains intact.

 Silver daily chart

Experts predict that coffee prices on November 5, 11 will continue to be under downward pressure. This week, the US presidential election and the Fed’s announcement of interest rate adjustments will be significant factors affecting coffee prices.

The 2023-2024 crop year has marked a special milestone for the Vietnamese coffee industry, when robusta coffee prices reached their highest level. world, surpassing many other competitors. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), said that this was a “miraculous” year in the history of the coffee industry, when Vietnam’s coffee export turnover reached over 5 billion USD despite the export output of only approximately 1,5 million tons. However, besides the benefits, this price increase also caused many difficulties for businesses when they had to face late deliveries and even lost goods during transportation.

Recorded in the trading session on November 4, 11, today’s coffee price is in the range of 2024-106.000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 106.500 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong, Dak Lak 106.500 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 106.400 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 106.300 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at a price of 106.400 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 106.500 VND/kg.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 106.000 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 106.000 VND/kg, down 1.300 VND/kg compared to the previous day.

Domestic coffee prices (November 4) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 11 VND/kg and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 106.500 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 4, 11, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, an increase 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 4, 11: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, an increase of 4.222 USD; Delivery term in January 14 is 3 USD/ton, up 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.167 is 17 USD/ton, up 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 4, 11. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor at 20:00 on November 4, 11 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 240.85 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 12 delivery period is 2024 cents/lb; up 245.00 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2.05 delivery period is 3 cents/lb, up 2025 cents/lb; the May 244.05 delivery period is 1.65 cents/lb, up 5 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 242.75 cents/lb, up 1.40 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 4, 11. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on November 4, 11 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, up 2024%; the delivery period for March 299.10 is 0.86 USD/ton, up 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 298.00 USD/ton, down 0.83% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, down 295.05%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

There are many different opinions on forecasts about coffee output in Vietnam – the world’s second largest coffee producing country.

According to the USDA report, Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is estimated to reach about 29 million bags, of which 24,4 million bags will be exported and 4,6 million bags for domestic consumption.

However, some other sources said that coffee output this crop year could range from 26 to 27 million bags (equivalent to 1,6 million tons).

Industry experts and the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) believe that, given the current situation, both domestically and internationally, coffee prices are likely to continue to decrease in the short term.

Commenting on the market this week, the Vietnam Coffee Growers Forum said that with the price of Arabica coffee in December 12, there is a high possibility that it will continue to decline and may reach the technical low of 2014 cents/pound. This is the level that will find some buying demand based on technical analysis.

For Robusta coffee, calculated at January 1 prices, it is forecasted to continue to decrease with a target level of 2025 USD/ton. At this support level, the Robusta market can find buying and it is not excluded that the price will bounce back from here. However, if this level fails, the Robusta price can go down to 3.946 USD/ton.

According to experts, this week’s developments in the US presidential election and the Fed’s announcement of interest rate adjustments will be factors that significantly impact coffee prices.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

Summary:
• Explore if Silver pullback offers a buying opportunity as global economic data and geopolitical events shape silver’s outlook for Nov 2024.

Silver (XAG/USD) has faced some pressure recently, with prices retreating from recent highs. As of today, silver is trading around $32.56, showing a slight bounce off its support level but still hovering below key resistance. With global markets reacting to economic data and geopolitical factors, is this dip an opportunity for buyers, or should traders wait for more stability?

Key Drivers of Silver Price Movement

Worries about inflation still impact precious metals in the U.S. Traders are closely monitoring the situation as increased inflation usually increases the demand for silver as a protection, however, if inflation decreases, silver may become less appealing.

Geopolitical Tensions: Continuous geopolitical instabilities, especially in the Middle East, have maintained a consistent demand for safe-haven assets. Any escalation could further lift silver prices, while easing tensions might reduce this demand.

Silver’s performance is closely tied to expectations on interest rates, which are determined by the Federal Reserve’s predictions on upcoming rate hikes. Being more assertive could raise the worth of the US dollar and harm silver, while being more careful could help increase the value of the metal.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for Silver (XAG/USD)

Looking at the technical chart, silver is testing some crucial levels. Here’s what to keep an eye on:

• Immediate Support: $32.24 – This level has held up recently, and a break below it could lead to further declines.
• Next Support: $31.63 – A drop to this level might suggest deeper corrections, potentially providing an entry point for buyers.
• Resistance Levels:
  • $32.70 – A break above this could indicate a recovery, with potential for more upside.
  • $34.84 – Strong resistance above that could cap any rallies, marking a potential profit-taking point.

Should You Buy the Silver Dip?

With silver trading near its support levels, traders are debating whether this pullback is a buying opportunity or a signal of further downside. If worries about inflation continue or if geopolitical tensions escalate, silver may be advantageous as a secure investment. If the Fed sticks to a hawkish position, silver may face more downward pressure due to a stronger dollar.

Conclusion: Is Silver a Buy in November?

The recent pullback in silver might catch the eye of precious metal enthusiasts looking for potential entry points. For now, the $32.24 level is crucial—if silver can hold above this support, a rebound could be on the cards.

However, it’s wise for investors to keep a close watch on upcoming economic data and any shifts in global tensions, as these could shape silver’s journey through November. Caution is key, as the metal’s path forward will likely be influenced by a mix of market forces and geopolitical events.

• Silver price maintains its position as traders adopt caution due to increased uncertainty surrounding the US election results.
• The opinion polls indicate that former President Trump and Vice President Harris are nearly tied.
• Silver demand may increase due to rising expectations for additional stimulus measures from China.

Silver price (XAG/USD) maintains its position around 32.50 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday as traders adopt caution ahead of the US presidential election. However, the heightened uncertainty surrounding the election has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like Silver.

The risk aversion sentiment has been amplified by speculation that a potential presidency under Republican nominee Donald Trump could lead to higher inflation, given his pledge to significantly raise trade tariffs. This has prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets as a hedge against long-term inflation risks.

However, the opinion polls indicate that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied. The final outcome may remain unknown for several days following Tuesday’s vote. Both Trump and Harris expressed confidence in their chances as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on the last frantic day of this exceptionally close presidential race.

US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision will be eyed on Thursday. Markets expect a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.5% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November. This could provide support for Silver as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.

Expectations for additional stimulus measures from China could bolster Silver demand as the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) holds a five-day meeting from November 4 to 8. Chinese authorities are anticipated to approve a potential stimulus package exceeding 10 trillion yuan to support the country’s economy. Given China’s position as one of the world’s largest manufacturing hubs for electronics, solar panels, and automotive components, this could lead to increased demand for Silver.

• Gold price mires in multi-day troughs near $2730 as Americans head to polls.  
• The US Dollar licks its wounds after the Trump trades unwinding on Monday.                  
• Gold traders stay unnerved below the 23.6% Fibo level, despite bullish technicals.

Gold price is miring in five-day lows near $2,730 in Asian trading on Tuesday, lacking a clear direction. Traders remain wary and refrain from placing fresh bets on Gold price on the US presidential election day.  

All eyes on US presidential election, exit polls

Gold price has entered a phase of downside consolidation, following its slump from all-time highs of $2,790 reached last Thursday, in the face of resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand. The Greenback jumped back into the bid, capitalizing on the Trump trade optimism.

Until last week, markets were pricing in a Republican nominee Donald Trump victory in the presidential race. They believed Trump’s policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the USD while a policy continuity is seen on a Harrish win.

However, the tide turned against the USD on Monday as traders resorted to the unwinding of the Trump trade, as the latest polls released over the weekend showed that US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris surpassed Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, marking a notable turnaround.

Harris and Trump are seen locked in a tight race for the White House.

Early Tuesday, the latest developments around the US election show that former president Donald Trump is leading Vice President Harris in each of the seven swing states though the margin is narrow. The AtlasIntel survey said Trump is holding the widest margin in Arizona, with a 52.3% to Harris’ 45.8%.

This update seems to have helped the Greenback pause its downside, keeping the USD-denominated Gold price on the edge. Further, expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also lend support to the USD.

Besides, the uncertainty surrounding the US election outcome, markets also take account of the ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran.

The Israeli military said that it had killed a commander of Hezbollah’s Nasser Brigade rocket unit in southern Lebanon. In response, Hezbollah announced it launched a “large rocket salvo” targeting the northern Israeli city of Safed, marking an escalation in cross-border tensions.

If the geopolitical tensions escalate further, investors are likely to scurry to the traditional safe-haven Gold price, cushioning its downside.

However, the sentiment around the US election is expected to play a pivotal role in the Gold price action in the upcoming days.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price challenges the key $2,730 demand area as sellers retain control.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is edging slightly lower to near 59, justifying the latest downtick in Gold price.

However, the leading indicator continues to hold above the 50 level, keeping the buying interest somewhat alive.  

Gold buyers need to reclaim the $2,746 resistance on a daily closing basis to resume its uptrend. That level is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to the new all-time high of $2,790.

The next bullish target is seen at the record high of $2,790.

Conversely, a sustained move below $2,730 will expose the 38.2% Fibo support at $2,718.

Acceptance below that level on a daily candlestick closing basis could challenge the $2,700 confluence zone, where the 50% Fibo level of the same ascent and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) close in.

Additional declines will call for a test of the 61.8% Fibo support at $2,673.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,734.50

• The looming United States presidential election fuels caution among market players.
• Central banks’ monetary policy announcements take centre stage this week.
• XAU/USD trades with modest losses, but the long-term view favours the upside.

A better market mood left XAU/USD trading lifeless on Monday. Gold hovers around Friday’s close at $2,736 a troy ounce, as investors preferred high-yielding assets. Bets on who will become the 47^th United States (US) president set the market’s tone.  Market participants evaluate whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would be able to keep loosening the monetary policy or if the central bank will have to battle again increasing price pressures. Americans will go to the polls on Tuesday, with some initial results expected for early Wednesday.

Stock markets trade mixed, with the Nikkei 225 posting sharp losses but the rest of the Asian indexes closing in the green. In Wall Street, however, the three major indexes accelerated south after a mixed opening, as concerns pushed investors back into safety.

This week, besides the US election, will feature central banks’ monetary policy announcements. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will unveil its decision on Tuesday, while the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will do so on Thursday.

As the US session develops, the US Dollar gathers strength amid mounting risk-aversion, although XAU/USD holds in range.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows easing bullish momentum, although the risk remains skewed to the upside. The pair keeps developing above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,705.00. The 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated north well below the shorter one, reflecting buyers’ strength. Finally, technical indicators turned marginally lower but remain well above their midlines, hinting at a limited bearish potential.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, on the contrary, sellers are in control. Technical indicators turned firmly lower within negative levels, while the 20 SMA accelerates south above the current level. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes below the current price, yet another leg south seems likely should XAU/USD break below $2,730, the immediate support area.

Support levels: 2,730.00 2,718.35 2,705.00

Resistance levels: 2,747.75 2,760.40 2,772.50

Bullish Reversal From 20-Day MA Area

Since today’s bullish reversal followed a successful test of support around the short-term 20-Day MA trend indicator earlier in the session, the bearish correction should be complete. Notice that today’s low of 2.51 was a little below the 20-Day line and approaching the 50-Day MA along with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.48. Further, an original trendline starting from the 2023 peak has been redrawn on the chart as a dotted blue line. Notice that it identified support for today and provides an additional clue pointing to a likely pullback bottom.

Can Strength be Sustained?

The 20-Day MA is a key near-term trend indicator. Since a successful test of support around the line was completed today, the bullish outlook for natural gas has improved. The question now is whether strong demand as seen today can be sustained to eventually challenge the top boundary line of a large symmetrical triangle formation, and possibly break out?

Recently, two attempts to break up through the top line failed and subsequently led to a pullback. The current advance is rising off a successful test of support around the 200-Day MA following a swing low of 2.21, which is bullish behavior. Moreover, the relationship with the 20-Day MA further confirms improving underlying demand.

Rise Above 2.92 Triggers Breakout

A rise above the recent high of 2.92 will trigger the next upside breakout attempt from the triangle consolidation formation. That would indicate that natural gas has risen above the top boundary line of the pattern. Subsequently, there are prior swing highs at 3.02, 3.16, and 3.39. Each marks a potential pivot level where resistance may be seen, or an upside breakout indicates the continuation of strength. Two rising ABCD patterns, one in orange and the other purple, point to potential initial upside targets at 3.35 and 3.45, respectively.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.