Citi increased its oil price forecast today with expectations for geopolitical conflicts to drive the price of the energy source higher in 2025. The bank expects Brent crude to rise to an average of $67 a barrel this year, compared to its prior estimate of $62 per barrel. Citi’s average 2025 forecast for WTI crude was also increased to $63 a barrel.

A Citi note explained its reasoning behind these updated oil price forecasts. The firm believes “heightened, sustained geopolitical risks in Iran/Russia-Ukraine” could “potentially wipe out the 2025 oil balance surplus.”

How Will Trump Affect Oil Prices in 2025?

While Citi expects oil prices to increase, a wild card could change things. The bank notes that President Donald Trump “appears intent on dealmaking.” This could alter oil prices if the new President can resolve geopolitical conflicts between nations.

Additionally, President Trump wants to increase oil production in the U.S. He’s already announced an energy emergency, allowing additional oil production and looser regulations for the sector. Trump also rolled back the government’s climate change commitments and electric vehicle (EV) mandate, putting oil back in focus as the main energy source in the U.S. moving forward.

How Does This Affect Oil Stocks?

Oil stocks will likely benefit from the Trump administration’s stances. Fewer regulations and faster permit grants could see the market take off over the next four years. As such, investors might consider taking a stake in oil stocks to get ahead of those potential gains.

Turning to the TipRanks comparison tool, traders will see some of the best oil stocks. If it’s a huge upside potential and Wall Street’s backing that traders seek, then ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the best bets with its Strong Buy rating and $134.33 price target, representing a potential 28.82% upside. Chevron (CVX) is another powerful option with the same rating and a $175.56 price target, representing a possible 10.85% upside.

See more oil stock comparisons

• Silver rebounds from $30.36, crosses 50-day SMA but struggles with higher resistance levels.
• RSI indicates rising buyer interest; however, significant resistance at $32.32 still challenges momentum.
• For bearish trend to resume, silver must fall below 200-day SMA and $30.00, with next supports at $29.51 and $28.89.

Silver price recovers some ground and trades with gains of 0.91% yet it has failed to clear key resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.95. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $30.70 after bouncing off a low of $30.36.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver recovered after testing the 200-day SMA near $30.05 and rose above the 50-day SMA but faces stir resistance at $30.95. The trend is tilted to the downside as the grey metal carved a series of successively lower highs and lower lows. Even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are gathering momentum, the grey metal has to surpass $32.32, the latest cycle high hit on December 12.

On the other hand, sellers must surpass the 200-day SMA and the $30.00 mark for a bearish continuation. Once taken out, the next support would be the January 13 low of $29.51, followed by the January 1 low of $28.89.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Gold price shows sideways trades now, and it might test the key support base 2762.00$ before turning back to rise again, as it is affected by stochastic negativity that hinders the mission of continuing the rise.

Until now, the bullish trend scenario still suggested for today unless breaking the mentioned support and holding below it, reminding you that our main waited target reaches 2790.00$.

The expected trading range for today is between 2755.00$ support and 2795.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Short-term Series of Lower Swing Highs

Yesterday’s high was the second lower swing high that has occurred since a bearish reversal followed the 4.37 trend high from last week. The day ended down and today’s drop below yesterday’s low of 3.86 earlier in the trading session marked it has a swing high.

There is a possibility that the lower swing high is retained and the developing small downtrend (countertrend decline) of lower swing highs may be setting the stage for a deeper correction. However, today’s bullish price action following a successful test of support at the 20-Day line and possibility of a strong close, leaves open the prospect of a continuation of Wednesday’s bounce off support at the 20-Day MA

Bullish Above 4.05

On the upside, a breakout above the 4.05 swing high will trigger a continuation of the bull advance from Wednesday’s low of 3.71. That low was also a higher swing low and now part of the price structure of the uptrend, which is also near support represented by the uptrend line.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where resistance might be seen, is at 4.09 and it is followed by the 78.6% retracement at 4.20. Moreover, there are two additional potential resistance areas. There is also a monthly high at 4.20, which provides confirmation for that price level as it matches the Fibonacci level.

Bearish Below 3.71

Outlook turns bearish if there is a drop below this week’s low at 3.71 as it is key trend support of a higher swing low. However, there is an identified potential support zone from around 3.70 and 3.64, which could either hold and lead to a bullish reversal, or natural gas breaks down through the zone and heads lower towards 3.53 or so.

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) traded with clear positivity to reach the thresholds of the key resistance 106000.00$, and as we mentioned this morning, breaching this level will activate the positive effect of the bullish pennant pattern and lead the price to continue the bullish trend that targets 108350.45$ followed by 112000.00$ levels mainly.

On the other hand, we should note that breaking 101680.00$ will stop the bullish wave and push the price to decline towards 95195.00$ areas before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 102000.00$ support and 108000.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

At 13:47 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.832, down $0.113 or -2.86%.

Is Weather Demand Losing Its Grip on Prices?

The latest outlook from NatGasWeather forecasts Arctic air to maintain strong natural gas demand through Friday, with subzero temperatures blanketing much of the interior U.S. and lows reaching the teens across the South. However, this demand will ease heading into the weekend as milder temperatures settle over the southern and eastern U.S., with highs climbing into the 40s-60s and even 70s in parts of Texas.

Looking further ahead, the weather pattern for early February appears less supportive, with mild conditions dominating key consuming regions. While frosty air will persist in the northern Rockies and Plains, it will not extend far enough south to drive significant demand. This milder outlook is weighing heavily on the market, keeping bullish sentiment in check despite a notable surplus-to-deficit shift in inventory balances this week.

Storage Report Undermines Bullish Momentum

The EIA’s latest storage report showed a draw of 223 Bcf for the week ending January 17, bringing total inventories to 2,892 Bcf. While this was 57 Bcf lower than the same time last year, it remained 21 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,871 Bcf.

Traders interpreted the smaller withdrawal as a sign of improving supply dynamics, especially as Lower 48 production remains robust. Meanwhile, easing heating demand is expected to prevent significant inventory depletion, keeping storage levels within the five-year historical range. These factors are adding downward pressure to prices and tempering bullish sentiment.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

With forecasts pointing to milder weather across key regions and storage data reflecting improving supply conditions, natural gas prices are likely to face further downside in the near term.

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) shows positive trades after testing 3222.00$ in the previous sessions, to support the continuation of the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, waiting to visit 3425.50$ initially, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish to reach 3678.00$ areas.

Holding above 3222.00$ is important to the continuation of the bullish trend, as breaking it represents the key to turn to decline to achieve additional bearish correction that its next target reaches 3017.30$ areas.

The expected trading range for today is between 3170.00$ support and 3450.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair failed to record any new positive target due to the continuous fluctuation below the additional resistance at 163.25, to notice forming mixed trades now by crawling towards 161.90 followed by settling near the MA55.

We expect to confine trades between the mentioned resistance and the additional support at 161.80, to stay neutral and wait to surpass one of the mentioned levels to manage to detect the next near-term and medium-term trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 161.80 and 163.25

Trend forecast: Neutral

• Silver price advanced as President Trump expressed his desire for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates without delay.
• Trump stated that he “would rather not have to use tariffs on China” and is hopeful about reaching a deal.
• The demand for the precious Silver increases due to weaker US Dollar and Treasury yields.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its recent losses, trading around $30.80 per troy ounce during the Asian trading session on Friday. The demand for non-interest-bearing Silver rises following comments made by US President Donald Trump late Thursday.

Trump expressed his desire for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates without delay. “With Oil prices falling, I’ll demand that interest rates be cut immediately, and they should be reduced worldwide,” he said during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Additionally, industrial demand for Silver may have strengthened following US President Donald Trump’s comments about his preference to avoid tariffs on China, the world’s largest consumer of metals and a manufacturing hub. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with China after a conversation with President Xi Jinping on Thursday, suggesting potential progress in US-China trade negotiations.

Traders are likely to continue turning to safe-haven assets like Silver, remaining cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration policies. On Tuesday, Trump also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with duties on the European Union.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, continues to decline as US Treasury yields depreciate amid improved risk sentiment. The DXY has fallen below 107.00, with the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields standing at 4.26% and 4.63%, respectively, at the time of writing. This shift could be contributing to the uptrend in non-yielding metals like Silver, which are seeing increased appeal.

Natural gas price kept its stability within the bullish channel that its major support line located at 3.680$, to notice renewing the positive action by targeting 4.030$ barrier now, which formed the first target for the recent bullish overview.

Now, stochastic exit from the oversold areas will reinforce the chances of gathering the positive momentum to manage to surpass the current barrier and achieve additional gains by rallying towards 4.220$ followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line at 4.420$.

The expected trading range for today is between 3.920$ and 4.220$

Trend forecast: Bullish