XAU/USD Current price: $2,453.23

• The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, failed to trigger action.
• Mixed United States data and an uptick in Treasury yields helped the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD eases for a second consecutive day, the bearish potential is well limited.

Spot  Gold trades with a soft tone on Thursday, hovering around its daily opening just below the $2,460 mark. The US Dollar found some demand as government bond yields pared losses and posted a modest rebound, while stock markets turned south amid a worsening market mood. Discouraging American data coupled with an uneventfull European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcement, pushing investors into safety.

The ECB left interest rates unchanged as widely anticipated, while the accompanying statement showed policymakers would remain data-dependant and take decisions meeting by meeting. European officials are considering that only one more rate cut this year could be possible, as inflation remains above the central bank’s goal.

United States (US) data was mixed, as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 12 unexpectedly jumped to 243K, much worse than the 230K anticipated by market players. On the other hand, the July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 13.9 after printing at 1.3 in June and beating the expected 2.9.

It is worth adding, however, that the US Dollar shows limited strength, suggesting the current advance will remain corrective.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The XAU/USD pair is under mild selling pressure for a second consecutive day, albeit barely retreating from record highs. Technical readings in the daily chart are far from suggesting a stepper decline, as indicators have barely retreated from overbought territory while lacking clear directional strength. At the same time, the pair keeps developing well above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,370.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is pretty much the same. XAU/USD is developing just above a firmly bullish 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs also head higher, well below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, pulled back from overbought readings but turned flat within positive levels, suggesting limited selling interest at the time.  

Support levels: 2,448.90 2,435.50 2,422.65

Resistance levels: 2,465.00 2,483.70 2,495.00

XAU/USD Current price: $2,453.23

• The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, failed to trigger action.
• Mixed United States data and an uptick in Treasury yields helped the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD eases for a second consecutive day, the bearish potential is well limited.

Spot  Gold trades with a soft tone on Thursday, hovering around its daily opening just below the $2,460 mark. The US Dollar found some demand as government bond yields pared losses and posted a modest rebound, while stock markets turned south amid a worsening market mood. Discouraging American data coupled with an uneventfull European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcement, pushing investors into safety.

The ECB left interest rates unchanged as widely anticipated, while the accompanying statement showed policymakers would remain data-dependant and take decisions meeting by meeting. European officials are considering that only one more rate cut this year could be possible, as inflation remains above the central bank’s goal.

United States (US) data was mixed, as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 12 unexpectedly jumped to 243K, much worse than the 230K anticipated by market players. On the other hand, the July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 13.9 after printing at 1.3 in June and beating the expected 2.9.

It is worth adding, however, that the US Dollar shows limited strength, suggesting the current advance will remain corrective.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The XAU/USD pair is under mild selling pressure for a second consecutive day, albeit barely retreating from record highs. Technical readings in the daily chart are far from suggesting a stepper decline, as indicators have barely retreated from overbought territory while lacking clear directional strength. At the same time, the pair keeps developing well above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support at around $2,370.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is pretty much the same. XAU/USD is developing just above a firmly bullish 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs also head higher, well below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, pulled back from overbought readings but turned flat within positive levels, suggesting limited selling interest at the time.  

Support levels: 2,448.90 2,435.50 2,422.65

Resistance levels: 2,465.00 2,483.70 2,495.00

And what that means is that during the summertime, typically it’s pretty weak, although we did recently see a spike higher due to a massive heat wave. Well, that’s come and gone. So, at this point, the next major spike will, unless there is a massive heat wave again, probably be the fall season when Americans start to heat their homes with natural gas again. Remember, this is an American contract you are trading. It’s not European.

Joe Biden signed an executive order not too awfully long ago in the last couple of years, which bans quite a bit of exporting of liquefied natural gas, not all, but quite a bit. So that’s why Europeans don’t get as much relief from the United States as you would expect. That is expected to be lifted into Donald Trump administration. And if that’s the case, it will massively change the dynamics of this market.

But as things stand right now, it is almost solely a domestic market. So, by all means, keep an eye on the US if you want to know what’s going on here. I use it as something to trade cyclically via ETF. If you don’t have the ability to trade an ETF, a very small CFD swing position is possible here, obviously to the upside, but you have to be willing to just let it go. It’s going to have to last probably a couple months to realize its full potential.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price bounces back toward all-time highs of $2,484 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar finds some solace from risk-aversion, US Treasury bond yields uptick.   
• Gold price cheers potential US-China trade risks and increased Fed easing bets.
• The daily RSI is back below 70 while firm above 50, suggesting the upside is intact for Gold price.

Gold price has found fresh demand above $2,450 in early trading on Thursday, looking to regain upside momentum, following a brief correction from a new record high of $2,484 set on Wednesday.

Gold price remains poised to claim $2,500

Wednesday’s Gold price retracement could be attributed to profit-taking after the bright metal touched its highest level on record. In the early part of the day, Gold price rallied hard, courtesy of the recent dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and mixed US Retail Sales, which cemented an interest-rate cut in September.

Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.

Additionally, robust physical Gold demand from India and the weekend’s assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump also played a part in lifting the sentiment around Gold price.

However, the renewed strength in Gold price early Thursday is seen on the back of simmering tensions surrounding US-China trade, which could escalate on a likely Trump presidency. Following the Trump attack, markets are speculating Donald Trump will win the US Presidential election race.

A report that the US was considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China sent chip stocks and the Nasdaq tumbling overnight, led by AI pioneer Nvidia and Apple, per Reuters.  

The upside attempts in Gold price, however, could be capped if the US Dollar stages a decisive comeback on risk aversion. The modest rebound in the US Treasury bond yields could also act as a headwind to the Gold price advance.

On the other side, should the USD/JPY resume its downslide amid suspected Japanese forex market intervention, the US Dollar will likely follow suit, providing extra legs to the Gold price upswing.

Markets will also pay close attention to the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and speeches from a few Fed policymakers for a fresh trading impetus in Gold price. These speeches will dictate the market expectations on the Fed interest rate outlook before the Fed’s ‘blackout period’ kicks in on Saturday.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will be scrutinized for the timings and scope of additional rate cuts, which could have some impact on the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

  

As noted before, the path of least resistance for Gold price remains to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased after prodding the overbought territory. The RSI indicator stays well above the 50 level, pointing to more upside in the offing.   

The previous week’s 21-day  and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) Bull Cross also continues to favor Gold buyers.

Gold price remains poised to capture the $2,500 level if the record high at $2,484 is taken out convincingly. The next resistance level is seen at the $2,550 psychological mark.  

On the flip side, if Gold price resumes correction, the previous lifetime high at $2,450 will be put to the test again, below which the $2,400 figure will come into play.  

The next relevant support levels are seen at the July 11 low of $2,371 and the $2,350 psychological levels.

 

• Gold price bounces back toward all-time highs of $2,484 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar finds some solace from risk-aversion, US Treasury bond yields uptick.   
• Gold price cheers potential US-China trade risks and increased Fed easing bets.
• The daily RSI is back below 70 while firm above 50, suggesting the upside is intact for Gold price.

Gold price has found fresh demand above $2,450 in early trading on Thursday, looking to regain upside momentum, following a brief correction from a new record high of $2,484 set on Wednesday.

Gold price remains poised to claim $2,500

Wednesday’s Gold price retracement could be attributed to profit-taking after the bright metal touched its highest level on record. In the early part of the day, Gold price rallied hard, courtesy of the recent dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and mixed US Retail Sales, which cemented an interest-rate cut in September.

Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.

Additionally, robust physical Gold demand from India and the weekend’s assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump also played a part in lifting the sentiment around Gold price.

However, the renewed strength in Gold price early Thursday is seen on the back of simmering tensions surrounding US-China trade, which could escalate on a likely Trump presidency. Following the Trump attack, markets are speculating Donald Trump will win the US Presidential election race.

A report that the US was considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China sent chip stocks and the Nasdaq tumbling overnight, led by AI pioneer Nvidia and Apple, per Reuters.  

The upside attempts in Gold price, however, could be capped if the US Dollar stages a decisive comeback on risk aversion. The modest rebound in the US Treasury bond yields could also act as a headwind to the Gold price advance.

On the other side, should the USD/JPY resume its downslide amid suspected Japanese forex market intervention, the US Dollar will likely follow suit, providing extra legs to the Gold price upswing.

Markets will also pay close attention to the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and speeches from a few Fed policymakers for a fresh trading impetus in Gold price. These speeches will dictate the market expectations on the Fed interest rate outlook before the Fed’s ‘blackout period’ kicks in on Saturday.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will be scrutinized for the timings and scope of additional rate cuts, which could have some impact on the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

  

As noted before, the path of least resistance for Gold price remains to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased after prodding the overbought territory. The RSI indicator stays well above the 50 level, pointing to more upside in the offing.   

The previous week’s 21-day  and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) Bull Cross also continues to favor Gold buyers.

Gold price remains poised to capture the $2,500 level if the record high at $2,484 is taken out convincingly. The next resistance level is seen at the $2,550 psychological mark.  

On the flip side, if Gold price resumes correction, the previous lifetime high at $2,450 will be put to the test again, below which the $2,400 figure will come into play.  

The next relevant support levels are seen at the July 11 low of $2,371 and the $2,350 psychological levels.

 

In a report sent to Rigzone by Fitch Group recently, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, revealed their latest Brent oil price forecasts.

According to the report, the BMI analysts now expect the Brent price to average $85 per barrel in 2024, $82 per barrel in 2025, and $81 per barrel across 2026, 2027, and 2028.

A Bloomberg Consensus included in the report projected that the Brent price will average $84 per barrel this year, $80 per barrel next year, $79 per barrel in 2026, $73 per barrel in 2027, and $72 per barrel in 2028. BMI is a contributor to the Bloomberg Consensus, the report highlighted.

“This month we have held to our current forecast for Brent crude to average $85 per barrel this year and $82 per barrel the next,” the analysts said in the report.

“To meet our forecast for 2024, crude oil prices will have to average around $86 per barrel for the rest of the year, up from $83.5 per barrel in the year to date,” they added.

“In light of this, the balance of risk to our forecast lies firmly to the downside. However, we have opted not to revise our outlook at this point, but rather wait and see how price action plays out over the coming peak demand season in the northern hemisphere,” they continued.

Macro Outlook

In the report, the analysts said they find it difficult to make a straightforwardly bullish case for Brent off the back of the global macroeconomic outlook.

“Economic growth has shown greater than expected resilience in H1, but sticky inflation, delayed interest rate cuts, increased tariffs on China, and political risks associated with the U.S. presidential elections all paint a murkier picture for the second half of the year,” they said.

The analysts added, however, that there are bright spots too.

“Firstly, our economists are holding to their view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark funds rate from 5.50 percent currently to 4.75 percent by year-end,” they said in the report.

“Secondly, despite the various risks the global economy faces, our economists believe that growth will remain relatively well-supported over the coming quarters,” they added.

“Thirdly, geopolitical risks remain elevated. The level of the risk premia currently being priced into Brent is extremely questionable,” they continued.

“Fourthly, the U.S. dollar could provide support to Brent,” the analysts went on to state, noting that “this is the shakiest of the arguments in our bullish case”.

Demand

The BMI analysts stated in the report that, as with the global macros, there is no clear-cut bullish case to be made for demand.

“However, there is ample data to defend our current price view,” they said.

“The strongest argument lies in our above-consensus forecasts for demand … the average growth forecast across the EIA, IEA, and OPEC sits at 1.4 million barrels per day for 2024, whereas we put growth for the year at 1.9 million barrels per day,” they added.

The analysts noted in the report that demand growth is highly concentrated, “with Mainland China and India accounting for over 40 percent of the net global increase in fuels consumption we forecast this year”.

“Chinese crude oil imports are highly volatile and import growth decelerated sharply year on year in the backend of 2023,” they said.

“However, growth has been recovering in 2024 and we expect further gains going forward, due to rising demand in the domestic transport and petrochemicals sectors, expanded oil refining capacity, and increased import quotas for private refiners this year,” they added.

OPEC+

The supply side has been generally supportive of prices and should remain so over the second half of 2024, the BMI analysts stated in the report.

“OPEC+ is maintaining its close management of the market, as evidenced in its recent decision to rollover its voluntary production curbs in their current form to the end of Q3, to extend the production cut deal until the end of 2025, and to only gradually return cut barrels to the market over the course of the next 18 months should conditions be supportive of increased supply,” they said.

The analysts added, however, that oil prices have not responded well to the news.

“OPEC+ action should physically tighten the market over the coming months, as demand rises strongly in the Middle East and GCC members are forced to meaningful curb their exports,” they analysts said in the report.

“Furthermore, the group has reaffirmed its commitment to adjust its production in response to changing market conditions and (implicitly) in support of prices,” they added.

Other Price Projections

In a research note sent to Rigzone by the J.P. Morgan Commodities Research team last Thursday, analysts at J.P. Morgan said, “summer inventory draws should be enough to get Brent back into the high $80s-$90 range by September”.

“Our price outlook calls for Brent to average $75 in 2025, sharply down from $83 in 2024, with prices exiting the year at $64,” they added in the note.

In a report sent to Rigzone last Tuesday by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, the company projected that the nearby future ICE Brent price will average $98 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024 and $106 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The company expects the commodity to average $109 per barrel in 2025, $128 per barrel in 2026, and $115 per barrel in 2027, according to the report.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Brent spot price will average $87.79 per barrel in 2024 and $85.38 per barrel in 2025.

The EIA’s previous April STEO forecast that the Brent spot price would average $88.55 per barrel this year and $86.98 per barrel next year.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

XAU/USD Current price: $2,456.23

• The US Dollar corrects higher after reaching extreme oversold conditions.
• Better-than-anticipated United States data helped the Greenback in the near term.
• XAU/USD corrects after reaching record highs, the overall bullish stance persists.

Spot Gold rallied to an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday as market players kept dampening the US Dollar on the back of mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the September meeting. Extreme technical conditions helped the USD recover some ground after Wall Street’s opening, also backed by encouraging United States (US) macroeconomic data.

The country reported that  Building Permits rose 3.4% in June, while  Housing Starts in the same period were up 3%. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased 0.6% in June, beating expectations, while Capacity Utilization in the same month rose to 78.8% against the 78.6% anticipated.

Finally, it is worth adding that several Fed officials hit the wires, with their words tilting to the dovish side of the spectrum, seen by market players as an anticipation of the September cut. The central bank will meet by the end of July, and speculative interest hopes policymakers will offer some clearer clues about the near future of monetary policy. It is also worth remembering that Chairman Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that decisions will be made meeting by meeting and depend entirely on macroeconomic developments.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on monetary policy. President Christine Lagarde and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this time after trimming them by 25 basis points (bps) in the previous meeting.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The XAU/USD pair is trading in negative territory on a daily basis, hovering around $2,455. The slide, however, seems corrective given the overbought conditions technical indicators have reached in the daily chart. In the same time frame, the bright metal holds far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its upward slope at around $2,365 while above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.

Technical readings in the 4-hour chart suggest that XAU/USD corrective slide may continue. The current candle is quite long, usually a sign of increased selling interest, while technical indicators retreat almost vertically from extreme overbought readings. Nevertheless, the pair keeps developing far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $2,435.50. Buyers could return around the latter if the level is reached, as the overall stance is still bullish.

Support levels: 2,448.90 2,435.50 2,422.65

Resistance levels: 2,465.00 2,483.70 2,495.00

Lower Support Starts Around 1.92

If the 2.02 support zone fails to hold, a drop below 2.00 will have the price of natural gas heading towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.92. That price is given further significance as it confirmed by the gap up support level from late-April at 1.91.

Natural gas fell hard on Wednesday as it was down by as much as 0.16 cents or 7.5% for the day. It has established a wide price range for the day with a full body red candle. And it is on track to close weak, in the lower third of the day’s trading range.

Current Support May Lead to a Bounce

Nonetheless, it is possible that the 2.00 price area holds as support and attracts buyers. Today’s sharp selloff has occurred further into the downtrend and therefore, nearer to the end of the decline than it had been previously. A sharp drop near the end of a trend can sometimes signal capitulation as holders can longer take the pain of loss and finally sell. That creates a vacuum that allows for a potential sharp bounce.

Breakout Above Trendline Give First Sign of Strength

Unfortunately, on a daily chart there is no sign of strength until natural gas rallies above today’s high of 2.21. Of course, that may change in the coming days as alternative price levels may become apparent. Be that as it may, more aggressive investors and traders may key off intraday price patterns as they watch for signs of a bullish reversal from a key support zone. As noted previously, a rally above the internal downtrend line will provide a sign of strength, but trendlines are typically not too reliable on their own. Breaks through trendlines are more useful when confirmed by additional signs of strength.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,456.23

• The US Dollar corrects higher after reaching extreme oversold conditions.
• Better-than-anticipated United States data helped the Greenback in the near term.
• XAU/USD corrects after reaching record highs, the overall bullish stance persists.

Spot Gold rallied to an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday as market players kept dampening the US Dollar on the back of mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the September meeting. Extreme technical conditions helped the USD recover some ground after Wall Street’s opening, also backed by encouraging United States (US) macroeconomic data.

The country reported that  Building Permits rose 3.4% in June, while  Housing Starts in the same period were up 3%. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased 0.6% in June, beating expectations, while Capacity Utilization in the same month rose to 78.8% against the 78.6% anticipated.

Finally, it is worth adding that several Fed officials hit the wires, with their words tilting to the dovish side of the spectrum, seen by market players as an anticipation of the September cut. The central bank will meet by the end of July, and speculative interest hopes policymakers will offer some clearer clues about the near future of monetary policy. It is also worth remembering that Chairman Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that decisions will be made meeting by meeting and depend entirely on macroeconomic developments.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on monetary policy. President Christine Lagarde and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this time after trimming them by 25 basis points (bps) in the previous meeting.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The XAU/USD pair is trading in negative territory on a daily basis, hovering around $2,455. The slide, however, seems corrective given the overbought conditions technical indicators have reached in the daily chart. In the same time frame, the bright metal holds far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its upward slope at around $2,365 while above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.

Technical readings in the 4-hour chart suggest that XAU/USD corrective slide may continue. The current candle is quite long, usually a sign of increased selling interest, while technical indicators retreat almost vertically from extreme overbought readings. Nevertheless, the pair keeps developing far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $2,435.50. Buyers could return around the latter if the level is reached, as the overall stance is still bullish.

Support levels: 2,448.90 2,435.50 2,422.65

Resistance levels: 2,465.00 2,483.70 2,495.00

XAU/USD Current price: $2,456.23

• The US Dollar corrects higher after reaching extreme oversold conditions.
• Better-than-anticipated United States data helped the Greenback in the near term.
• XAU/USD corrects after reaching record highs, the overall bullish stance persists.

Spot Gold rallied to an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday as market players kept dampening the US Dollar on the back of mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the September meeting. Extreme technical conditions helped the USD recover some ground after Wall Street’s opening, also backed by encouraging United States (US) macroeconomic data.

The country reported that  Building Permits rose 3.4% in June, while  Housing Starts in the same period were up 3%. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased 0.6% in June, beating expectations, while Capacity Utilization in the same month rose to 78.8% against the 78.6% anticipated.

Finally, it is worth adding that several Fed officials hit the wires, with their words tilting to the dovish side of the spectrum, seen by market players as an anticipation of the September cut. The central bank will meet by the end of July, and speculative interest hopes policymakers will offer some clearer clues about the near future of monetary policy. It is also worth remembering that Chairman Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that decisions will be made meeting by meeting and depend entirely on macroeconomic developments.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on monetary policy. President Christine Lagarde and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this time after trimming them by 25 basis points (bps) in the previous meeting.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The XAU/USD pair is trading in negative territory on a daily basis, hovering around $2,455. The slide, however, seems corrective given the overbought conditions technical indicators have reached in the daily chart. In the same time frame, the bright metal holds far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its upward slope at around $2,365 while above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.

Technical readings in the 4-hour chart suggest that XAU/USD corrective slide may continue. The current candle is quite long, usually a sign of increased selling interest, while technical indicators retreat almost vertically from extreme overbought readings. Nevertheless, the pair keeps developing far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $2,435.50. Buyers could return around the latter if the level is reached, as the overall stance is still bullish.

Support levels: 2,448.90 2,435.50 2,422.65

Resistance levels: 2,465.00 2,483.70 2,495.00

• Gold price sits at a new record high above $2,480 early Wednesday.
• The US Dollar licks wounds with Treasury bond yields as a September Fed rate cut is a done deal.  
• India Gold demand stands resilient, despite elevated prices – ANZ.
• The daily RSI prods 50 level, suggesting more upside for Gold price.

Gold price is consolidating the three-day uptrend to a new record high above $2,480 in Asian trades on Wednesday, as buyers take a breather before resuming the winning momentum.  

Gold price looks to $2,500 and beyond

With a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut in September inevitable, a fresh lifetime high for the non-interest-bearing Gold price comes as a little surprise. Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.

Data on Tuesday showed that US Retail Sales stagnated in the month to June, down from a 0.3% growth in May. The Retail Sales Control Group for June came in at 0.9% versus the previous increase of 0.4%. The readings showed US economic resilience however, that failed to alter market bets for a Fed cut in September.

Therefore, the US Dollar downtrend resumed, following a temporary bounce, helping Gold price attain fresh levels on record above $2,450. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s comments added to the recent dovishness from several Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, and accentuated the Gold price bullish momentum.

Gold traders also cheered robust physical demand for Gold in India even though prices remain elevated. Analysts at the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group said in their research note that “higher prices are still dampening demand, but sensitivity has diminished over the past year. Despite a rise in gold’s price of more than 10 percent in 2023, consumer demand stayed buoyant at 760 tons, a marginal decline of only 2 percent y/y. The demand was also in line with the long-term (2013–22) average of 755 tons.”

“Higher capital gains and income growth have helped gold demand weather elevated prices,” ANZ analysts added.

Looking ahead, upside risks remain intact for Gold price, as dovish sentiment around the Fed’s interest rate outlook will continue to boost the appeal of the non-yielding Gold price. Meanwhile, any stimulus rollout by China to stimulate its economic growth could also act as a tailwind for Gold price.

Gold traders will closely scrutinize the mid-tier US industrial and housing data, as well as, the speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller for fresh trading directives.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

  

The path of least resistance for Gold price remains to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) tests the overbought threshold while the previous week’s Bull Cross remains in play.  

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed above the 50-day SMA on Friday, portraying the bullish crossover.

Gold buyers look to capture the $2,500 level on a retest of the record highs at $2,482. The next contention level is seen at the $2,550 psychological mark.  

However, any pullback in Gold price could challenge the previous lifetime high at $2,450, below the $2,400 figure will be put to the test again.

The next relevant support levels are seen at the July 11 low of $2,371 and the $2,350 psychological levels.

 

• Gold price sits at a new record high above $2,480 early Wednesday.
• The US Dollar licks wounds with Treasury bond yields as a September Fed rate cut is a done deal.  
• India Gold demand stands resilient, despite elevated prices – ANZ.
• The daily RSI prods 50 level, suggesting more upside for Gold price.

Gold price is consolidating the three-day uptrend to a new record high above $2,480 in Asian trades on Wednesday, as buyers take a breather before resuming the winning momentum.  

Gold price looks to $2,500 and beyond

With a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut in September inevitable, a fresh lifetime high for the non-interest-bearing Gold price comes as a little surprise. Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.

Data on Tuesday showed that US Retail Sales stagnated in the month to June, down from a 0.3% growth in May. The Retail Sales Control Group for June came in at 0.9% versus the previous increase of 0.4%. The readings showed US economic resilience however, that failed to alter market bets for a Fed cut in September.

Therefore, the US Dollar downtrend resumed, following a temporary bounce, helping Gold price attain fresh levels on record above $2,450. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s comments added to the recent dovishness from several Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, and accentuated the Gold price bullish momentum.

Gold traders also cheered robust physical demand for Gold in India even though prices remain elevated. Analysts at the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group said in their research note that “higher prices are still dampening demand, but sensitivity has diminished over the past year. Despite a rise in gold’s price of more than 10 percent in 2023, consumer demand stayed buoyant at 760 tons, a marginal decline of only 2 percent y/y. The demand was also in line with the long-term (2013–22) average of 755 tons.”

“Higher capital gains and income growth have helped gold demand weather elevated prices,” ANZ analysts added.

Looking ahead, upside risks remain intact for Gold price, as dovish sentiment around the Fed’s interest rate outlook will continue to boost the appeal of the non-yielding Gold price. Meanwhile, any stimulus rollout by China to stimulate its economic growth could also act as a tailwind for Gold price.

Gold traders will closely scrutinize the mid-tier US industrial and housing data, as well as, the speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller for fresh trading directives.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

  

The path of least resistance for Gold price remains to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) tests the overbought threshold while the previous week’s Bull Cross remains in play.  

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed above the 50-day SMA on Friday, portraying the bullish crossover.

Gold buyers look to capture the $2,500 level on a retest of the record highs at $2,482. The next contention level is seen at the $2,550 psychological mark.  

However, any pullback in Gold price could challenge the previous lifetime high at $2,450, below the $2,400 figure will be put to the test again.

The next relevant support levels are seen at the July 11 low of $2,371 and the $2,350 psychological levels.

 

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This sentiment continues to provide support for precious metals like silver, which do not offer yields, making them more attractive when yields on other investments are low.

Economic Indicators and Silver’s Near-Term Outlook

Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. Industrial Production data, seeking further direction. The anticipation of a dovish shift by the Fed is largely priced into the market, keeping bond yields near multi-month lows and underpinning silver prices.

Therefore, any further decline in silver might still attract buyers, viewing dips as favorable opportunities.

Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment

Recent statements from Fed officials have reinforced the likelihood of rate cuts, influencing investment flows towards traditionally non-yielding assets like silver.

Moreover, upbeat U.S. Retail Sales data has shown consumer resilience, suggesting robust economic activity which could temper aggressive bullish bets on silver.

Despite this, the prevailing economic sentiment and monetary policy landscape suggest that silver prices may continue to find substantial support, limiting significant downside risks.