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Gold price is looking to build on to the previous downside early Tuesday, as traders continue to take profits off the table in the lead-up to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision due on Wednesday.
Besides, a cautiously optimistic market mood and a broad US Dollar (USD) rebound exert downward pressure on Gold price, as markets digest reports of a probable truce talks. Citing an Israeli source familiar with the negotiations and a foreign diplomatic source, CNN News reported on Tuesday that Hamas is considering a new framework proposed by Egypt that calls for the group to release as many as 33 hostages kidnapped from Israel in exchange for a pause in hostilities in Gaza. Receding geopolitical tensions dent the appeal of Gold, as a safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar stages a comeback after two back-to-back days of losses, tracking the recovery in the USD/JPY pair after it was thrashed nearly 500 pips on Monday, in the face of a suspected intervention by the Japanese authorities to rescue the Yen from its lowest level in 38 years against the Greenback.
Gold price also bears the brunt of increased expectations that the Fed will stick to its recent hawkish rhetoric when it announces its policy decision on Wednesday, especially after hotter-than-expected US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data.
On Friday, the annual Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8%, at the same pace as seen in February but came in hotter than the expected 2.6% increase. Markets are pricing in the first Fed rate cut in September, with just over 30 basis points worth of easing expected this year, down from 40 bps projected a week ago.
However, the downside in Gold price appears cushioned following encouraging China’s Manufacturing PMI data for April. China is the world’s top Gold consumer and improving economic activity in the country, helps underpin the demand for the bright metal.
Next of note for Gold traders remain the US ADP Employment Change, JOLTs Job Openings data and the Fed policy announcements due on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Gold price will stay at the mercy of the broader risk sentiment and the US Dollar price action.
As observed on the daily chart, Gold price closed Monday below the key 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), then at $2,336.
The bright metal is once again challenging the rising trendline support at $2,330 on the extended weakness early Tuesday.
If Gold sellers manage to find a strong foothold below the latter on a daily closing basis, a fresh downtrend could be initiated toward the 50-day SMA at $2,212.
Ahead of that, the previous week’s low of $2,291 and the psychological $2,250 level could lend support to buyers.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) looks down but holds above the midline, suggesting that the bearish potential in Gold price could be limited.
On the upside, the previous week’s high will be the initial contention point on recapturing the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance. Further up, the $2,370 round level will be challenged en route to the April 22 high of $2,392.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The first upside target is close by at 2.07. If hit, it will complete an initial target for a rising ABCD pattern that is identifying price symmetry between the AB and CD legs of the advance. However, since it is close to the top of a symmetrical triangle higher prices remain on the radar. The second target from the ABCD pattern is 2.20. That target completes an ABCD pattern where the CD leg is extended by 127.2% of the AB portion of the advance.
It begins with a target range from 2.07 to the prior December 13 swing low at 2.24. Inside that price range is the completion of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.24. Generally, a 38.2% retracement is usually the more common minimum retracement that might be seen. This means that since natural gas is showing improving strength, the 38.2% retracement should eventually be reached, at a minimum.
Last Friday natural gas rose above the lower dashed blue channel line before ending the day below it. Today, it is on track to close above it for the first time. The lower line is parallel to the top falling dashed blue line that connects the October and January swing highs. Further, natural gas is set to end on Monday at its highest daily closing price since February 5. If the top of the first target zone at 2.235 is exceeded, the next higher zone is around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.49. It is further anchored by the 50% retracement at 2.46.
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Gold trades with a positive tone on Monday, now hovering around $2,345 a troy ounce, as the US Dollar eases on the back of a better market mood that also sees stock markets advancing and government bond yields retreating. Speculative interest, however, maintains major pairs confined to familiar levels ahead of first-tier events scheduled for this week.
On the one hand, the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its monetary policy meeting and announce the outcome on Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold while delivering a hawkish message that will probably harm the US Dollar. US data released this past month showed slowing growth alongside stubbornly high inflation.
On the other hand, the country will release multiple employment-related figures, ending Friday with the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Employment and inflation are the key measures the Fed considers when making monetary policy decisions. The fact that figures will be out after the central bank’s announcement could be little relevant in the near term, but it will count towards speculation about what could happen in the June Fed meeting.
XAU/USD is in the green for the third consecutive day, modestly bouncing from a Fibonacci level, the 23.6% retracement of the $1,996.06/$2,431.43 rally at $2,326.50. Technical readings in the daily chart offer a neutral-to-bullish stance, as XAU/USD is currently surpassing a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer ones picked up far below the current level, in line with increasing buying interest. The Momentum indicator remains stuck around its 100 level, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator slowly grinds north at around 60, also reflecting upward pressure.
XAU/USD offers a similar picture in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows the pair is just below a mildly bullish 100 SMA, while a directional 20 SMA provides intraday support. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength but develop within positive levels, suggesting bulls are ready to jump in.
Support levels: 2,326.50 2,310.00 2,295.20
Resistance levels: 2,361.55 2,372.90 2,389.15
Gold trades with a positive tone on Monday, now hovering around $2,345 a troy ounce, as the US Dollar eases on the back of a better market mood that also sees stock markets advancing and government bond yields retreating. Speculative interest, however, maintains major pairs confined to familiar levels ahead of first-tier events scheduled for this week.
On the one hand, the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its monetary policy meeting and announce the outcome on Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold while delivering a hawkish message that will probably harm the US Dollar. US data released this past month showed slowing growth alongside stubbornly high inflation.
On the other hand, the country will release multiple employment-related figures, ending Friday with the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Employment and inflation are the key measures the Fed considers when making monetary policy decisions. The fact that figures will be out after the central bank’s announcement could be little relevant in the near term, but it will count towards speculation about what could happen in the June Fed meeting.
XAU/USD is in the green for the third consecutive day, modestly bouncing from a Fibonacci level, the 23.6% retracement of the $1,996.06/$2,431.43 rally at $2,326.50. Technical readings in the daily chart offer a neutral-to-bullish stance, as XAU/USD is currently surpassing a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer ones picked up far below the current level, in line with increasing buying interest. The Momentum indicator remains stuck around its 100 level, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator slowly grinds north at around 60, also reflecting upward pressure.
XAU/USD offers a similar picture in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows the pair is just below a mildly bullish 100 SMA, while a directional 20 SMA provides intraday support. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength but develop within positive levels, suggesting bulls are ready to jump in.
Support levels: 2,326.50 2,310.00 2,295.20
Resistance levels: 2,361.55 2,372.90 2,389.15
Natural gas futures are trading sharply lower early Wednesday as investors price in another change in the weather forecast for later in the month. The steep break puts the market in a position to challenge last week’s low. According to Natural Gas Intelligence, the American weather model is supportive, but the European model indicates milder temperatures ahead.
At 10:19 GMT, April natural gas futures are trading $2.625, down $0.080 or -2.96%.
“The overnight weather models were mixed heading into Tuesday’s session, with the Global Forecast System (GFS) little changed but with the European model losing numerous heating degree days,” according to NatGasWeather.
“The main difference is the GFS is colder by favoring a weaker and shorter break over the East around February 23, and is also more aggressive with cold returning across the East February 24-27,” NatGasWeather said.
Additionally, the European weather model is now looking for milder weather for February 23-27. “One of these models is wrong, and the overnight data will be watched closely to see which one gives in to the other,” NatGasWeather said.
NatGasWeather is saying for February 13-19, “A fast moving weather system will bring rain, snow and ice across the East today, followed by a milder break late in the week. The West will be cool to cold and unsettled. The southern US will be mild to warm with highs of 60s to 80s, although cooling Friday-Saturday. This week-end and next week will be quite chilly as cold air sweeps across much of the country with lows of -10s to 20s North and 20s to 40s over the South. Overall, national demand will be moderate through Thursday, then high Friday through next week.”
This week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report is expected to show a draw of 79 Bcf for the week-ending February 8.
“The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday scaled back its first quarter 2019 estimates for natural gas production and consumption, but continued to expect that record production over the next two years will take the edge off natural gas prices and allow gas to grow its share of the generation mix,” S&P Global Platts reported.
Wednesday’s early price action indicates the market is still bearish. The price action indicates that traders are favoring the milder European model at this time. This model is calling for milder weather February 23-27.
Technically, the trend is down. The short-term range is $2.565 to $2.730. The mid-point of this range at $2.648 is controlling the direction of the market. Currently, the April natural gas futures contract is trading below this level, giving it today’s downside bias. If the downside momentum continues then look for the selling to possibly extend into last week’s low at $2.565.
Prices could accelerate to the downside if the GFS weather model flips and joins the European model in forecasting milder weather later this month. We could see a short-covering rally if the European model reverses its current bearish outlook.
Please let us know what you think in the comments below.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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Gold volatility has subsided drastically now that the risk of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran have been greatly reduced. Riskier assets like the S&P 500 and high-beta currencies like the Aussie dollar and British pound managed to claw back prior losses as risk sentiment improved. As a result, gold’s former safe haven bid has had the wind taken out of its sails.
In the coming week, the US Treasury is set to update the public on details of its funding needs and will provide specifics around whether bond issuance is likely to favour shorter or longer duration – which is likely to affect the shorter and longer dated yields and potentially, gold.
Gold Volatility Index (GVZ)
The precious metal may soon have to face the reality of the Fed funds rate remaining higher for longer after inflation data proved worrisome on Friday. A string of hotter-than-expected price data culminated in Friday’s PCE print where both headline and core inflation beat expectations.
Increasing attention has been placed on shorter-term measures of price trends like the month-on-month comparisons, which has been rising – which hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed. Jerome Powell acknowledged the undesirable uptick in inflation but reiterated that policy is poised to react to any outcome and the Vice Chairman of the Fed, John Williams even made mention of another hike is needed.
The prospect of higher inflation has forced markets to backtrack on ambitious rate cuts initially eyed for 2024, extending the dollars longer-term strength. A stronger dollar and rising yields have had little effect on the precious metal when geopolitical uncertainty was at its peak, but with the recent de-escalation and in the absence of any further catalysts, gold bulls may soon run out of momentum.
Gold bounced off of support at $2320 – a prior swing low. If prices remain above this level, the bullish continuation remains constructive. However, in the absence of a catalyst, the upside potential may be greatly reduced.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold market trading involves a thorough understanding of the fundamental factors that determine gold prices like demand and supply, as well as the effect of geopolitical tensions and war. Find out how to trade the safe haven metal by reading our comprehensive guide:
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Risk events next week include both scheduled and geopolitical events to be aware of. On the geopolitical front, despite the Israel-Iran tensions subsiding, news of Russia striking power facilities on Ukraine could slow the risk on sentiment that transpired in the trading week gone by.
Scheduled risk events include the FOMC meeting where there is no realistic expectation of a change to interest rates but markets will be focused on how concerned officials are regarding the re-acceleration of inflation that has emerged since the start of the year.
Thereafter, non-farm payroll data is likely to inject more volatility – even if this is short-lived – into dollar denominated markets like gold. The labour market continues to show resilience, further delaying the first rate cut from the Fed. Another point to note is that US ISM manufacturing data will draw more attention than usual after Q1 GDP disappointed massively on Thursday, showing early signs of vulnerability for the world’s largest economy.
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— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX
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Number of Tables and Figures- 99
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The global Long Black Coffee market was valued at USD million in 2023 and it is expected to reach USD million by the end of 2032, growing at a CAGR of Percent during 2021-2032. The influence of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War were considered while estimating market sizes.
The research report has incorporated the analysis of different factors that augment the market’s growth. It constitutes trends, restraints, and drivers that transform the market in either a positive or negative manner. This section also provides the scope of different segments and applications that can potentially influence the market in the future. The detailed information is based on current trends and historic milestones. This section also provides an analysis of the volume of production about the global market and about each type from 2023 to 2032. This section mentions the volume of production by region from 2023 to 2032. Pricing analysis is included in the report according to each type from the year 2023 to 2032, manufacturer from 2023 to 2021, region from 2023 to 2021, and global price from 2023 to 2032.
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Global Long Black Coffee Market: Segment Analysis
The research report includes specific segments by region (country), by manufacturers, by Type and by Application. Each type provides information about the production during the forecast period of 2023 to 2032. by Application segment also provides consumption during the forecast period of 2023 to 2032. Understanding the segments helps in identifying the importance of different factors that aid the market growth.
Long Black Coffee Market Segmentation By Type:
Long Black Coffee Market Segmentation By Application:
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This report provides an all-inclusive assessment of the analysis for the Global Long Black Coffee Market. The market estimates provided in the report are the result of in-depth secondary research, primary interviews and in-house expert reviews. These market estimates have been considered by studying the impact of various social, political and economic factors along with the current market dynamics affecting the Global Long Black Coffee Market growth.
Along with the market overview, which comprises of the market dynamics the chapter includes a Porter’s Five Forces analysis which explains the five forces: namely buyers bargaining power, suppliers bargaining power, threat of new entrants, threat of substitutes, and degree of competition in the Global Long Black Coffee Market. It explains the various participants, such as system integrators, intermediaries and end-users within the ecosystem of the market. The report also focuses on the competitive landscape of the Global Long Black Coffee Market.
REPORT OVERVIEW INFOGRAPHICS:-
Geographically, this report is segmented into several key regions, with sales, revenue, market share and growth Rate of Long Black Coffee in these regions, from 2023 to 2032, covering
North America (United States, Canada and Mexico)
Europe (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Russia and Turkey etc.)
Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam)
South America (Brazil, Argentina, Columbia etc.)
Middle East and Africa (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa)
Global Long Black Coffee Market: Competitive Landscape
The market analysis entails a section solely dedicated for major players in the Global Long Black Coffee Market wherein our analysts provide an insight to the financial statements of all the major players along with its key developments product benchmarking and SWOT analysis. The company profile section also includes a business overview and financial information. The companies that are provided in this section can be customized according to the client’s requirements.
The global Long Black Coffee market Growth is anticipated to rise at a considerable rate during the forecast period, between 2023 and 2032. In 2023, the market was growing at a steady rate and with the rising adoption of strategies by key players, the market is expected to rise over the projected horizon. Long Black Coffee Market Forecast by regions, type and application, with sales and revenue, from 2023 to 2032.
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– To share detailed information about the key factors influencing the growth of the market (growth potential, opportunities, drivers, industry-specific challenges and risks).
– Focuses on the key global Long Black Coffee manufacturers, to define, describe and analyze the sales volume, value, market share, market competition landscape, SWOT analysis and development plans in next few years.
– To analyze the Long Black Coffee with respect to individual growth trends, future prospects, and their contribution to the total market.
– To project the value and volume of Long Black Coffee submarkets, with respect to key regions (along with their respective key countries).
– To analyze competitive developments such as expansions, agreements, new product launches, and acquisitions in the market.
– To strategically profile the key players and comprehensively analyze their growth strategies.
Long Black Coffee Market Size (sales, revenue) forecast by regions and countries from 2023 to 2032 of Long Black Coffee industry.The detailed information is based on current trends and historic milestones. This section also provides an analysis of the volume of production about the global market and about each type from 2019 to 2032. This section mentions the volume of production by region from 2019 to 2032. Pricing analysis is included in the report according to each type from the year 2019 to 2032, manufacturer from 2019 to 2023, region from 2019 to 2023, and global price from 2019 to 2032.Long Black Coffee Market Share, distributors, major suppliers, changing price patterns and the supply chain of raw materials is highlighted in the report.
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Detailed TOC of Global Long Black Coffee Market Report 2023
1 Long Black Coffee Report Overview
1.1 Long Black Coffee Research Scope
1.2 Market Segment by Type
1.2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Market Size Growth Rate by Type, 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032
1.3 Market Segment by Application
1.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Market Size Growth Rate by Application, 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032
1.4 Study Objectives
1.5 Years Considered
2 Global Market Production
2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Production Capacity (2018-2032)
2.2 Global Long Black Coffee Production by Region: 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032
2.3 Global Long Black Coffee Production by Region
2.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historic Production by Region (2018-2023)
2.3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Production by Region (2023-2032)
2.4 Market Dynamics
2.4.1 Long Black Coffee Industry Trends
2.4.2 Long Black Coffee Market Drivers
2.4.3 Long Black Coffee Market Challenges
2.4.4 Long Black Coffee Market Restraints
3 Global Long Black Coffee Sales
3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Estimates and Forecasts 2018-2032
3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue Estimates and Forecasts 2018-2032
3.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Region: 2018 VS 2023 VS 2032
3.4 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Sales
3.4.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Sales (2018-2023)
3.4.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Sales (2023-2032)
3.5 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Revenue
3.5.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Revenue (2018-2023)
3.5.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Regions by Revenue (2023-2032)
4 Competition by Manufacturers
4.1 Global Long Black Coffee Production Capacity by Manufacturers
4.2 Global Long Black Coffee Sales by Manufacturers
4.2.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers by Sales (2018-2023)
4.2.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers Market Share by Sales (2018-2023)
4.2.3 Global Top 10 and Top 5 Companies by Long Black Coffee Sales in 2023
4.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Manufacturers
4.3.1 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers by Revenue (2018-2023)
4.3.2 Global Top Long Black Coffee Manufacturers Market Share by Revenue (2018-2023)
4.3.3 Global Top 10 and Top 5 Companies by Long Black Coffee Revenue in 2023
4.4 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Price by Manufacturers
4.5 Analysis of Competitive Landscape
4.5.1 Manufacturers Market Concentration Ratio (CR5 and HHI)
4.5.2 Global Long Black Coffee Market Share by Company Type (Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3)
4.5.3 Global Long Black Coffee Manufacturers Geographical Distribution
4.6 Mergers & Acquisitions, Expansion Plans
5 Estimates and Forecasts by Type
5.1 Global Long Black Coffee Sales by Type
5.1.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Sales by Type (2018-2023)
5.1.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Sales by Type (2023-2032)
5.1.3 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Market Share by Type (2018-2032)
5.2 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Type
5.2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Revenue by Type (2018-2023)
5.2.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Revenue by Type (2023-2032)
5.2.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue Market Share by Type (2018-2032)
5.3 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Type
5.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Type (2018-2023)
5.3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Price Forecast by Type (2023-2032)
6 Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application
6.1 Global Long Black Coffee Sales by Application
6.1.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Sales by Application (2018-2023)
6.1.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Sales by Application (2023-2032)
6.1.3 Global Long Black Coffee Sales Market Share by Application (2018-2032)
6.2 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue by Application
6.2.1 Global Long Black Coffee Historical Revenue by Application (2018-2023)
6.2.2 Global Long Black Coffee Forecasted Revenue by Application (2023-2032)
6.2.3 Global Long Black Coffee Revenue Market Share by Application (2018-2032)
6.3 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Application
6.3.1 Global Long Black Coffee Price by Application (2018-2023)
6.3.2 Global Long Black Coffee Price Forecast by Application (2023-2032)
7 North America
7.1 North America Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company
7.2 North America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type
7.3 North America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application
7.4 North America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country
8 Europe
8.1 Europe Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company
8.2 Europe Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type
8.3 Europe Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application
8.4 Europe Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country
9 Asia Pacific
9.1 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company
9.2 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type
9.3 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application
9.4 Asia Pacific Long Black Coffee Market Size by Region
10 Latin America
10.1 Latin America Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company
10.2 Latin America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type
10.3 Latin America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application
10.4 Latin America Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country
11 Middle East and Africa
11.1 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Sales Breakdown by Company
11.2 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Market Size by Type
11.3 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Market Size by Application
11.4 Middle East and Africa Long Black Coffee Market Size by Country
12 Company Profiles
13 Value Chain and Sales Channels Analysis
13.1 Long Black Coffee Value Chain Analysis
13.2 Long Black Coffee Key Raw Materials
13.2.1 Key Raw Materials
13.2.2 Raw Materials Key Suppliers
13.3 Long Black Coffee Production Mode & Process
13.4 Long Black Coffee Sales and Marketing
13.4.1 Long Black Coffee Sales Channels
13.4.2 Long Black Coffee Distributors
13.5 Long Black Coffee Customers
14 Key Findings
15 Appendix
15.1 Research Methodology
15.1.1 Methodology/Research Approach
15.1.2 Data Source
15.2 Author Details
15.3 Disclaimer
Continued….
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The 1.94 swing high matches the previous trend low from April 2023 at 1.95. Therefore, it has some longer-term significance. It was exceeded to the upside over several days in early-March but there was no close above that price level. This means that a daily close above 1.95 will provide a sign of increasing demand and that a breakout above the 2.01 swing high is a bullish signal.
Also, notice that today’s advance exceeded the lower dashed blue declining parallel channel line, another sign of strength. Further, the trendline on the relative strength index momentum oscillator (RSI) was busted to the upside today. Nevertheless, what happens in the coming days will be more revealing than today’s price action.
It doesn’t look like today will end above the 1.94 swing low. So, moving forward a daily close above that price level will provide confirmation of strength. And, on a daily close above the lower blue channel line, although it is more of a sign of strength rather than a reliable signal.
There are several upside price levels to watch, and more details will be discussed in the future. For now, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2.22. That area is also highlighted by the swing low from mid-December. If there is a rally above 2.01, higher targets become more likely of being tested.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
We just don’t know when that’s going to be. Keep in mind there’s a lot of supply out there right now. So, we need something to drill down supply, be it demand or possibly some type of geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Full disclosure, this position is part of my trading account, but it’s about 2% of my total holdings. It’s not a big position at all, and therefore I never really pay attention to it as far as a profit and loss standpoint.
But every week or so, just to see if anything’s changed. Obviously not much has.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The drop in the U.S. dollar, driven by disappointing U.S. economic growth figures, also provided some support to oil prices. The natural gas and oil forecast remains influenced by these dynamics, with reduced U.S. inventories indicating tighter oil markets and ongoing Middle East conflicts maintaining a risk premium on oil prices.
The WTI Crude market has gone back and forth during the early hours on Thursday, as we continue to dance around the $82.50 level. Furthermore, we also have the 50-Day EMA underneath offering support, and we are essentially in the middle of the overall consolidation range between the $80 level on the bottom, and the $85 level on the top. As things stand right now, this is a market that looks very neutral, but it seems as if we are completely ignoring a lot of the geopolitical propellants out there that could jump into this market.
Brent markets of course have behave very similarly, with the 50-Day EMA hanging around the $85.75 level. This is a market that seems like it is trying to sort out what it was to do as well, with the $84.50 level underneath being a major support level, and the $90 level above being a major resistance barrier. As we are close to the middle of the market, I don’t necessarily think we are in a scenario where you would see a lot of certainty, so therefore I think you have to look at this through the prism of either a longer-term trade that is trying to set up, or to simply trading back and forth.
Looking at the overall situation around the world, supply is still an issue, and we obviously have a lot of geopolitical concerns. Those geopolitical concerns could cause massive headaches for crude oil markets, and then of course the latest headlines coming out of Iran or Israel could have a direct effect on these markets. Because of this, be very cautious with your position sizing.
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