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Gold Corrects to the Downside and as Aggressive Buying Runs Out of Steam

The gold (XAU) price dropped by 0.24% on Thursday as traders took profit on their long positions after a very strong 3-week rally.

has risen by more than 10% since mid-February, but the bullish trend seems to be slowing as the gold price failed to hold above the pivotal 2,195 level.

“Overnight aggressive buying seems to have run out of steam, and gold prices are correcting, given that rates markets have only marginally discounted the risk of more rate cuts for 2024,” said Daniel Ghali, the commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Still, the overall sentiment in the gold market is decisively bullish, as almost all major central banks plan to reduce interest rates in 2024, while safe-haven flows remain strong due to geopolitical risks.

“The mood in the market is very bullish. So your hedge funds or any other short-term traders or trend followers are positioned for higher prices, and I think this is the segment that is in the driving seat while the physical gold market is rather soft,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

The main risk for gold is that investors’ interest rate expectations may begin to change. Indeed, yesterday’s higher-than-expected US Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) figures triggered a downward correction in gold because data indicating a strong economic expansion decreases the chances of interest rate cuts.

XAU/USD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the economic calendar is rather uneventful. However, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will give a speech at 1:00 p.m. UTC. His remarks may trigger some volatility in the market, but he will unlikely say anything new.

“Spot gold may retest support at $2,167 per ounce, a break below which could open the way towards $2,152–$2,161 range,” said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.

EUR/USD Declines on Better-Than-Expected US PMI Figures

The euro (EUR) lost 0.53% on Thursday as the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report came out better than expected, and the figures were substantially higher than the eurozone’s data.

After rising briskly due to the dovish interest rate projection by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday,  declined yesterday. The latest economic data indicated that the US economy was doing much better than the eurozone’s, suggesting that interest rates in the US will eventually remain higher compared to Europe. Thus, investors are starting to favor the again. According to interest rate swap market data, traders are pricing in 90 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and only 80 bps worth of reductions by the Fed in 2024. Furthermore, yesterday’s Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision to cut the rates may have had an additional bearish impact on the euro.

EUR/USD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders will receive more clues on the health of the eurozone economy when Germany publishes its Ifo Business Climate report at 9:00 a.m. UTC. Better-than-expected figures will likely trigger a minor upward correction in EUR/USD but probably no higher than 1.08700. Conversely, worse-than-expected data will put an additional bearish pressure on the pair, potentially pulling towards 1.08000.

Bitcoin Drops as the US Dollar Rises After an Unexpected SNB Rate Cut

On Thursday, (BTC) declined due to the strengthening US dollar and lost some gains made on Wednesday when the dovish Federal Reserve’s outlook pushed the pair higher.

The US dollar strengthened after an unexpected rate cut of 25 basis points by the Swiss central bank, and this may have influenced the decrease. This move negated the significant decrease the US dollar experienced on Wednesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed a dovish stance on the monetary policy as US inflation exceeded the forecast. Thus, the strengthening of the US dollar on Thursday could be attributed to investors’ anticipation that some major central banks might start cutting rates before the Fed does, as pointed out by the macro analyst Michael Kao.

Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm, adjusted its year-end prediction for Bitcoin’s price, raising it from 80,000 to 90,000 due to positive changes in market dynamics and the recent upward trend in cryptocurrency. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra noted that several factors support an optimistic outlook on BTC: strong inflows into exchange-traded funds, low miner leverage, and high network transaction fees this cycle. They believe these conditions have diminished the impact of halving on miners, allowing for sustained dollar revenues.

“Given general bull market conditions with strong ETF inflows, low miner leverage, and robust network transaction fees this cycle, the halving impact seems relatively mild on the miners, with dollar revenues cushioned,” Chhugani and Sapra said in a statement.

Although Bitcoin has dropped from its peak of over 73,000 last week, many analysts still predict a significant recovery for the cryptocurrency by the end of the year.

BTC/USD rose slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Currently, Bitcoin enthusiasts have managed to overturn the decline observed on 19 March. Optimistic market participants are now seeing 73,800 as a potential short- to medium-term target.

Gold prices opened on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Friday at Rs 66,057 per 10 grams and hit an intraday low of Rs 66,004. In the international market, prices hovered around $2,174.08 per ounce.

Meanwhile, silver opened at Rs 74,775 per kg and hit an intraday low of Rs 74,508 on the MCX. In the international market, the price hovered around $24.57 per ounce.

Gold and silver prices surged significantly. Gold touched an all-time high of Rs 66,940, surging by around 1200 hours from Rs 65,750, and silver touched Rs 78,000 in morning trade. However, average trading was seen at Rs 76,400, up by more than 1300 hours in response to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, LKP Securities, “Following Fed rate announcement, prices rallied from $2,157 to $2,210, marking a notable $53 increase. This bullish momentum was driven by dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who hinted at the possibility of three rate cuts.”

“Powell hinted that the Fed will soon be seeking to dial down the rate of QT, though he did not say when. Based on the CME Fed watch tool, traders were pricing in a 73.4% possibility that the Fed will cut rates for the first time as early as June. Speculative buying and short squeeze led the gold prices to cross previous highs of $2200 and this rally is expected to continue to $2,350 in the short term,” said Sachin Kothari, Director at Augmont.

Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodity and Currency, MOFSL, said, “Gold eased slightly, hitting pause after a blistering rally amidst Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank was on course for three interest rate cuts in 2024.”

Despite recent high inflation readings, Governor Powell said the central bank is still likely to reduce interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by end-2024.

The US Central Bank raised the inflation and growth forecast, mentioning that inflation is still sticky and the Fed will continue to be data-dependent.

Modi said, “Traders are now pricing in a 72% chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, up from 55% before the rate decision. The sentiment of at least a 75bps rate cut this year gave a boost to safe-haven assets, and with that, the Fed also hinted at slowing the balance sheet runoff soon.”

After a good run-up, both Gold and Silver witnessed some profit booking. The Dollar Index also inched higher from the recent low of ~102.90.

On the data front, preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI was reported better than expected. It will now be important to see how the Fed officials prepare the market.

Amit Khare, Associate Vice President at GCL Broking, said, “April Gold closed positive at Rs 66,189(0.66%), and May Silver closed negative at Rs 75,081 (-0.35%). Yesterday Gold made life time high of Rs 66,943; as per the daily chart, Bullions are trading in the mix zone, and Gold is looking strong while Silver is looking weak; the Momentum Indicator RSI also indicates the same; below are the important levels for the day: Gold April Support Rs 65,900/65,700 and Resistance Rs 66,200/66,400. Silver May Support Rs 74,400/74,000 and Resistance Rs 75,500/76,000.”

CHENNAI: In Chennai, the price of 22-carat gold decreased by Rs 280 per sovereign and is sold at Rs 49,600 on Monday.

Gold price in Tamil Nadu has been fluctuating for the past few days. Following this, the price has reduced today.

Accordingly, the fall in price per gram of gold is Rs 35, taking 1 gram of gold to be sold at Rs 6,200.

Silver price has reduced by Rs. 2 and being sold at Rs 79.50 per gram and one kg silver is at Rs 79,500.

The price of 24-carat gold climbed Rs 10 in early trade on Thursday, with ten grams of the precious metal trading at Rs 67,430, according to the GoodReturns website. The price of silver rose Rs 100, with one kilogram of the precious metal selling at Rs 78,600.

The price of 22-carat gold also rose Rs 10 with the yellow metal selling at Rs 61,810.

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The price of ten grams of 24-carat gold in Mumbai is in line with prices in Kolkata and Hyderabad, at Rs 67,430.

In Delhi, Bengaluru, and Chennai, the price of ten grams of 24-carat gold stood at Rs 67,580, Rs 67,430, and Rs 68,030, respectively.

In Mumbai, the price of ten grams of 22-carat gold is at par with that in Kolkata and Hyderabad, at Rs 61,810.

In Delhi, Bengaluru, and Chennai, the price of ten grams of 22-carat gold stood at Rs 61,960, Rs 61,810, and Rs 62,360, respectively.

The price of one kilogram of silver in Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata stood at Rs 78,600.

The price of one kilogram of silver in Chennai stood at Rs 81,600.

Gold prices edged higher on Friday and were set for a fourth weekly rise in five after the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate cut projections for the year, boosting investor sentiment.

Spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at $2,183.93 per ounce, as of 0117 GMT, after hitting an all-time high on Thursday. Bullion has risen 1.3 per cent so far this week.

US gold futures were also up 0.1 per cent at $2,186 per ounce.

Spot silver was flat at $24.77 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.3 per cent to $904.95 and palladium eased 0.1 per cent to $1,009.21.

(With inputs from Reuters)

The gold price today in Delhi is 6196 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6758 per gram for 24 karat gold.

The price of gold in India today is 6,181 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6,743 per gram for 24 karat gold

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Check Gold Price In Your City Today On 22nd March 2024

Gold Price Today In Mumbai

The price of gold in Mumbai is 6181 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6743 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Kolkata

The gold price today in Kolkata is 6181 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6743 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Chennai

The Gold price today in Chennai is 6236 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6803 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Delhi

The gold price today in Delhi is 6196 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6758 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Thane

The gold price today in Thane is 6181 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6743 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Surat

The gold price today in Surat is 6186 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6748 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Pune

The gold price today in Pune is 6181 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6743 per gram for 24 karat gold.

Gold Price Today In Nagpur

The gold price today in Nagpur is 6181 per gram for 22 karat gold and 6743 per gram for 24 karat gold.

With the so-called “Ghost Army,” its World War II mission of fooling the enemy was so secret because most of the people who knew about it took it to the grave.

A secret no more and nearly 80 years after the end of the war, the Ghost Army on Thursday was recognized with the Congressional Gold Medal and credited with helping American troops achieve key victories in Germany and Italy during the conflict.

The Ghost Army — comprised of 1,300 U.S. soldiers — helped trick the Third Reich with deceptive battlefield shenanigans that protected their fellow Americans and helped defeat Nazi Germany. Some of those tactics included using inflatable tanks, camouflage and innovative acoustic sound effects to misdirect German forces, according to details of their actions that were finally declassified in 1996, more than 50 years after they happened.

“The soldiers included technicians and artists from around the country and they used their talents to deceive and divert the Nazis,” Speaker Mike Johnson said during the event Thursday. “Some of them paid the ultimate price, but because of the courageous work of this group, it is estimated that 15,000 to 30,000 lives were saved.”

Three surviving veterans from the “Ghost Army” were in attendance at the Capitol to participate in the ceremony: John Christman, Seymour Nussenbaum and Bernie Bluestein.

Author Rick Beyer, who has dedicated a career to telling the Ghost Army’s story and advocating for its members to receive the Congressional Gold Medal, said that many of the veterans who have passed away since he began researching the unit would be surprised to learn of the recognition bestowed upon its members Thursday. Four soldiers from the operation were killed in action.

“No soldier who served in this unit considers himself a hero. I have talked to many veterans of the Ghost Army and each told me that the real heroes were the infantrymen and the tankers who bore the brunt of the frightening,” Beyer said. “But it has always struck me that the Ghost Army’s deception mission demanded a special kind of courage: to protect strength when you have none, [and] to purposely draw any fire to keep it from falling on others. A dangerous business, not for the faint of heart.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell credited the unit’s efforts for having a lasting impact on post-war counterintelligence operations.

“They weren’t just helping win a World War,” McConnell said. “Whether they knew it or not, they were developing top secret ways to help preserve a hard-won peace through the Cold War.”

That sentiment was echoed by Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth, who said current Army planners are taught that the basis of military deception is storytelling — and the Ghost Army was made up of master storytellers, whose techniques can still be found on the battlefield.

“Even though technology has changed quite a bit since 1944, our modern techniques build on a lot of what the Ghost Army did and we are still learning from your legacy,” she said. “Our experience observing the war in Ukraine has shown us that even with an increasingly transparent battlefield, military deception can still have a significant impact on military operations.”

Johnson read from a now-declassified report, which summed up the contributions of the unit, quipping “This would be recommended reading if you can get your hands on it.”

“Rarely, if ever, has there existed a group of such few men, which had so great an influence on the outcome of a major military campaign,” Johnson said, quoting the report. “That’s really something.”

The Congressional Gold Medal is the highest honor that Congress can bestow on any group or individual. The Ghost Army soldiers are the 185th entity to receive the award. George Washington was the first recipient in 1776.

Right after this month’s FOMC meeting concluded and Chairman Powell held his regular press conference, gold began to move into uncharted territory. As of 5:40 PM EDT, gold futures basis most active April contract is currently fixed at $2183.80,which is a net loss of $6.30, or 0.29% today. However, the history that was made today was not in gold’s closing price but rather its intraday high. Gold traded to an intraday high over $20 above the former record high of $2203 when traders pushed gold to $2225.30 in today’s trading.

On Tuesday, we identified a Western technical chart pattern called a bullish flag formation. This pattern occurs after a strong uptrend. Gold price began a strong advance on February 29 when gold futures were trading at $2053.10. What followed was six consecutive days in which gold traded to a higher high, a higher low, and a higher close than the previous day. 

On March 11, gold traded to a higher close, gaining $2.80 and closing at $2189. The strong price advance over the seven days created the “pole” of the bullish flag formation. For the next six days, from March 12 through March 19, the flag was created as gold consolidated with a downside bias.

The chart above is a four-hour Japanese candlestick chart of gold futures. The pole is colored green, and the flag is colored red. Yesterday, following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, the release of the SEP, and the press conference, gold prices spiked to their highest level in history.

Although gold has retraced from those highs at the time of writing, the pattern identified (Bull Flag) can be used to project where the current rally in gold could conclude. The projection (black dashed line) is based upon measuring the price move from the beginning to the end of the “pole”, and then projecting that same distance from the bottom of the flag.

This particular bull flag pattern suggests that gold could trade above $2300 by the completion of this pattern.

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