XAU/USD Current price: $2,792.07

• The United States grew at a slower-than-anticipated pace in the last quarter of 2024.
• The December US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be out on Friday.
• XAU/USD is technically bullish and could surpass the $2,800 mark in the upcoming sessions.

Spot Gold reached a fresh all-time high following the second round of first-tier events, trading as high as $2,798.53 after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure after the release of tepid growth-related figures.

According to the United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, declining from the 3.1% posted in Q3 and missing expectations of 2.6%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report also showed that the GDP Price Index rose by 2.2%, below the expected 2.5%.

Additionally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% on a quarterly basis, matching the market consensus. Finally, the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 24 improved to 207K from the previous 223K.

Wall Street struggled to digest the news after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates on hold on Wednesday and failed to provide fresh clues on the monetary policy direction. Still, after the dust settled, US indexes trimmed most of their early losses and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posts modest gains, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 trade a handful of points below their Wednesday’s close.

On Friday, the focus will be on Germany, as the country will release December Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The US will publish the December PCE Price Index, but following the GDP release, the report will not be a surprise; hence, the market will post a limited reaction to the news.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the bullish momentum is strong enough to anticipate a break through $2,800 in the upcoming sessions. The pair develops well above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north above the longer ones while providing dynamic support at around $2,710. Technical indicators, in the meantime, resumed their advances within positive levels, approaching overbought readings yet still with room to go.

The XAU/USD 4-hour chart also supports another leg north. Technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes while entering overbought territory. Finally, the bright metal develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction at around $2,758 while standing well above the 100 and 200 SMAs. The former all-time high at

Support levels: 2,789.90 2,777.40 2,766.05

Resistance levels: 2,800.00 2,812.00 2,825.00

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have rallied slightly during the trading session and the early hours of Thursday, but still, we see a lot of lack of interest. We have switched over to the March contract and that is going to have a lot to do with where we go next. Quite frankly, now that you’re in the March contract, you’re starting to think about spring. And yes, I realize it’s just now turning February, but it is a futures market. And your CFD contract that you might be trading will be following this one way or another. Sometimes it is the average price, sometimes it’s just the front month, which would be this month, March, or other times it is halfway between two contracts. You just never know what you’re getting with the CFD.

So, with that, we look at the futures market and it tells us that things are going lower. That makes sense as it is expected to be warmer than usual in the month of March in North America and by extension, somewhat the same in Europe, and if that’s going to be the case, demand for natural gas is going to fall off of a cliff. This happens every year, there’s nothing particularly unique about this, it’s just that it might be happening a little earlier than usual. So, as things stand right now, I like the idea of fading rallies, assuming we get one. Any bounce for a couple of days that shows a long wick on top of it, I’m more than willing to start shorting.

Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.

Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Applied Materials’ stock price (AMAT) edged higher in the intraday levels, after leaning on the support of the 50-day SMA, lending the stock some positive momentum, while trying to recoup some losses, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, with negative signals from the RSI. 

Therefore we expect the price to return lower, provided the support of $171.60 was reliably breached, targeting the next one at $148.00.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bearish 

• Gold price finds demand but remains within a familiar range below record highs.    
• The US Dollar stays depressed alongside US Treasury yields, eyeing the US Q4 advance GDP report.
• The daily technical setup continues to favor Gold buyers as record highs remain in sight.  

Gold price is back in demand early Thursday, holding its fort above $2,750. Despite the rebound, Gold price remains in a familiar range below the record high of $2.790 as traders look forward to the US fourth-quarter advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for fresh impetus.  

Will Gold price retest record highs on US GDP slowdown?

Gold buyers are trying their luck in Asian trading on Thursday, helped by a subdued performance of the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields as traders digest the latest US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision in the face of looming tariffs by President Donald Trump on Canada, Mexico and China as soon as this weekend.

Meanwhile, markets remained wary of the mixed earnings results from the US tech titans Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft released after the market close. Meta’s sales in the fourth quarter jumped 21% year over year while net income grew 49% to $20.8 billion from $14 billion a year earlier. Microsoft slipped on weak quarterly revenue guidance while Tesla Inc. shares rallied as much as 4% in extended trading on Wednesday despite the company reporting a disappointing quarter on both revenue and the profit front. 

Expectations of a slowdown in the US economic growth also revive the safe-haven appeal of the Gold price. The US economy is expected to grow at an annualized pace of 2.6% in Q4 2024 after expanding 3.1% in the prior quarter. The widening US trade deficit in goods suggests that the advance GDP data could be weaker than the market forecasts.

Faltering US economic growth prospects and looming trade war risks under Trump’s presidency could keep the buoyant tone intact around the traditional store of value – Gold. Also of note will be the weekly US Jobless Claims and the quarterly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices data.

On Wednesday, Gold price returned to the red following a hawkish hold Fed decision as perceived by market participants. The Fed held the benchmark policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% target range but altered the language in the policy statement to a slightly hawkish tone. The US central bank removed the earlier statement saying that inflation “has made progress” towards its 2% inflation goal while noting only the pace of price increases “remains elevated.”

Additionally, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his post-policy press conference, the Fed wants to see further progress on inflation and could see a pathway for that, adding, “we don’t need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments.”

Traders are pricing in around 46 basis points (bps) of cuts by year-end, a tad lower than around 48 bps before the Fed statement, indicating waning expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year, per Reuters.

However, gold prices managed to stage a modest rebound late Wednesday as the USD failed to sustain Fed-inspired gains. US Treasury bond yields slipped amid souring mood as traders remained cautious ahead of the earnings results from US tech giants – Microsoft, Tesla and Meta.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains bullish, making it a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds comfortably above the midline, currently near 63, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.

Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day SMA closed above the 100-day SMA last Thursday, confirming a Bull Cross.

Gold price needs a sustained move above the static resistance at around $2,765 to take on the upside.

However, a daily candlestick closing above the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 or record high of $2,790 is critical to initiating a fresh uptrend.

The next relevant upside targets are $2,800 and the $2,850 psychological barrier.

On the downside, the immediate support will be seen at the previous day’s low of $2,745.

Sellers will then aim for this week’s low of $2,731, folowed by the $2,700 round level, where the 21-day SMA coincides.

Oil and natural gas markets remain volatile as traders weigh geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.

Crude oil prices held steady as markets assessed the potential impact of tariff measures on major energy suppliers, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 3.46 million barrels, reflecting reduced demand from recent weather disruptions.

On the supply side, Russian crude exports are set to decline by 8% as refining activity increases, while OPEC+ prepares for its upcoming policy meeting.

Analysts remain skeptical of a potential price war between major producers, noting that an oversupply scenario could drive Brent crude prices below $50 if spare capacity is aggressively deployed. Traders now await further signals on production policy and global energy demand shifts.

Natural gas price forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) is treading water at $3.17, with traders closely watching the $3.20 pivot level for directional cues. The commodity remains below its 50-day EMA at $3.28 and well under the 200-day EMA at $3.38, reinforcing a cautious outlook.

A break above $3.20 could spark a move toward the $3.37 resistance, potentially extending gains to $3.51 if bullish momentum strengthens. On the downside, immediate support at $3.01 is critical—losing this level may accelerate declines toward $2.88.

The market remains bearish below $3.20, with sellers in control unless buyers step in to reclaim higher ground. Until then, traders should remain cautious, as a failure to hold above key technical levels could invite further downside pressure.

WTI oil price forecast

WTI Price Chart

Crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $72.51, down 0.61%, as it struggles to find footing below the $73.49 pivot level. The 50-day EMA at $73.73 and the 200-day EMA at $74.62 continue to act as strong resistance, keeping sellers in control for now.

A break above $73.49 could shift momentum, targeting $74.93, with further upside potential toward $75.95. However, failure to reclaim this level may push oil toward $72.32, with $71.25 as the next major support.

For now, the trend remains bearish below $73.49, but a decisive move above resistance could spark a fresh rally. Traders should watch for volume confirmation before positioning for a reversal or further downside.

Brent oil price forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $75.40, down 0.59%, as it remains under pressure below the $76.38 pivot level. The 50-day EMA at $77.52 and the 200-day EMA at $78.00 signal a bearish bias, keeping upside momentum in check.

A break above $76.38 could trigger a push toward $77.83, with an extended move potentially testing $79.54. However, failure to reclaim this level may reinforce selling pressure, dragging prices toward $74.68, with $73.73 as the next critical support.

For now, the market remains bearish below $76.38, and sellers have the upper hand unless buyers regain control above resistance. A confirmed breakout or further rejection at these levels will determine the next directional move.

News.Az 

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) still confined between 3017.30$ support and 3222.00$ resistance, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now, waiting to breach one of these levels to detect the next targets clearly.

We remind you that breaching the resistance will push the price to recover and achieve gains that start at 3335.00$ followed by 3425.50$, while breaking the support represents negative factor that will push the price to resume the bearish trend within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, to head towards visiting 2765.00$ areas on the near-term basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 3020.00$ support and 3335.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Neutral

• Silver price continues to gain ground amid dovish sentiment surrounding the major central banks’ policy outlook.
• The upside of the non-interest-bearing Silver could be limited amid the cautious tone surrounding the Fed.
• A stronger US Dollar may create headwinds for Silver, as it increases the metal’s cost for investors holding other currencies.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the third consecutive session, trading around $30.90 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The precious metal holds its gains amid dovish signals from major central banks.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has ended its quantitative tightening and joined Sweden’s Riksbank in delivering a rate cut. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to lower rates this week, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) have signaled potential rate cuts ahead.

In the United States (US), the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. This follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a full percentage point.

However, Silver’s upside may be capped as the Fed delivered a hawkish message by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation moving toward its 2% target. Additionally, the central bank acknowledged strong economic growth and labor market conditions.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the US central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market” before considering further policy adjustments.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains steady at around 108.00. A stronger US Dollar could pose challenges for Silver, making it more expensive for foreign buyers.

Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.

Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Crude oil price managed to break 73.90$ level and close the daily candlestick below it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the correctional bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, opening the way to head towards 72.30$ that represents our next main target, noting that breaking this level will push the price to suffer additional losses that reach 70.30$ on the near-term basis.

Holding below 73.90$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve intraday gains and head to test 75.53$ areas before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 71.60$ support and 74.60$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish