Gold remains vulnerable early Tuesday, extending a four-day losing streak as US Dollar (USD) buyers hold the ground, eagerly awaiting the critical September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday.

Gold suffers from less dovish Fed expectations

Gold licks its wounds near five-day troughs of $4,006 reached on Monday, uninspired by broad risk aversion, amid a sustained US Dollar turnaround.

The Asian markets track Wall Street indices lower, as concerns over the US labor market and the AI overvaluations resurface ahead of the key quarterly earnings from chipmaker Nvidia on Wednesday.  

Risk-off flows keep the sentiment around the US Dollar underpinned, weighing down on the USD-denominated Gold.

The Greenback also draws support from the recent slew of hawkish talks by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which slashed the bets for another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in December to 42%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted on Monday the US central bank needed to “proceed slowly” with further rate cuts, per Reuters.

The late pullback in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields due to risk-aversion-led rally in US Treasuries, fuelled a modest rebound in Gold. The bright metal settled Monday at around $4,040, having tested the $4,000 threshold earlier in the day.

Looking ahead, Gold remains exposed to downside risks as the USD will likely hold the fort before the release of missed mid-tier US economic data. Speeches from Fed officials will also be closely scrutinized for fresh signals on the Fed’s policy path.

However, the main event risk for this week is the US September jobs report, albeit stale, is eagerly awaited for fresh hints on the state of the labor market, following the recent series of downbeat private sector employment data.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,022.86. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,048.65 has turned lower, with price holding beneath it and signaling waning near-term momentum. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs at $3,954.55, $3,669.05, and $3,421.00 continue to rise and sit below price, reinforcing the broader bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases to 49 (neutral), underscoring cooling upside pressure.

Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 38.2% retracement at $4,075.05 acts as near-term resistance, with the 50% retracement at $4,133.50 above. A daily close back above the 21-day SMA would open a push toward those barriers, while a rejection keeps pressure toward the 50-day SMA at $3,954.55 and maintains a consolidative tone within the broader uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Silver (XAG/USD) is showing a mild recovery attempt on Monday. The pair bounced up from $50.00 lows on Friday but is struggling to find acceptance above the $51.00 level. which leaves price action hovering in no man’s land, after a sharp reversal from the $54.30 area last week.

Precious metals trimmed losses on Monday, with risk appetite subdued as Japan threatened China with military action if Taiwan were to be attacked. Investors, however, are on a wait-and-see stance, awaiting the release of a stream of delayed US macroeconomic releases later in the week, which is expected to shed some more light on the momentum of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

Technical analysis: Silver has a significant resistance level above $54.00

The technical picture remains bearish, following a sharp reversal from the $54.30 area last week, which highlights a potential double top formation at the mid-range of the $54.00s. This is a common pattern of trend shifts that comes after a 70% rally in the last seven months.

Meanwhile, the lower high on Friday endorses the bearish view, and the weak oscillators, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) depressed below the 50 level, suggest that the current rebound is frail and that a deeper correction may be forthcoming.

Immediate support remains at Friday’s lows of $50.00, which, so far, is closing the path towards the October 23 and 31 highs, near $49.35, and the November 4 low, at $46.95. To the upside, a previous support at the 52.10 area (November 13 low) is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the November 14 high at $53.65 and the long-term highs between $54.60 and $54.80.

XAU/USD Current price: $4,075.18

• Speculative interest awaits earnings reports and US macroeconomic updates.
• The odds for a Federal Reserve no change in December stand above 55%.
• XAU/USD turned neutral, with the bearish potential limited despite the latest slide.

Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, although confined to a well-limited intraday range. The bright metal hovers around $4,070 a troy ounce in the American session, trading at the lower end of Friday’s range, as investors await fresh clues about the United States (US) economic health.

The US Dollar (USD) is mixed across the FX board, but stable, as investors await the release of US figures delayed by the government shutdown. Among other things, the Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Goods Trade balance will be released on Wednesday, while the country will publish the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday.

US data will be critical ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting in mid-December. The central bank trimmed the benchmark interest rate in October, but raised doubts about a similar movement in December. Currently, the odds of an on-hold decision are above 55%. Such a picture could change once speculative interest assesses fresh macro data.

Other than that, the earnings season kicks in: Several tech-related companies will report in the upcoming days, including the AI giant NVIDIA. As a result, Wall Street is also in a wait-and-see mode, with the three major indexes trading mixed, yet not far from their daily opening levels.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades at $4,075.18, and the 4-hour chart shows the risk skews to the downside, although chances of a steeper decline seem limited. The pair is trading below a bearish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $4,144, but holds above the 100 and 200 SMAs, signaling a near-term correction against a still positive longer-term slope. At the same time, the Momentum indicator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator both hold within negative levels, although aiming marginally higher, suggesting limited selling interest. A break below the 100-period SMA at $4,043.20 should hint at a steeper decline, while a close above the 20-period SMA at $4,144.05 would lift the bias back to the upside.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is correcting lower, but it is far from being bearish. The 20-day SMA has turned lower but remains above the rising 100- and 200-day SMAs, while the pair continues to develop above them. The 20-day SMA at $4,051.62 offers nearby dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum stands above its midline and rising, while the RSI eases at around 53 (neutral), hinting at a slower upside pace.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in positive territory near $51.00 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The white metal edges higher amid uncertainty following the end of the US government’s shutdown. Federal Reserve officials are set to speak later on Monday, including John Williams, Philip Jefferson, Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller.

Markets are bracing for a flood of delayed economic reports that could signal a slowing US economy. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will take center stage later on Thursday. This report could offer clarity to the Fed rate outlook in December. Any signs of weakness in the US labor market could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and underpin the USD-denominated commodity price. 

“I think the risk is definitely skewed to a weaker payrolls print, and that would just reignite market expectations about a December FOMC rate cut and send the U.S. dollar down,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).

On the other hand, hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers ahead of a deluge of US economic data spooked traders and could weigh on the white metal. Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid said on Friday that monetary policy should lean against demand growth, adding that current Fed policy is “modestly restrictive,” which he believes is appropriate. 

Markets are now pricing in nearly a 40% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in the Fed’s December meeting, down from over 60% earlier this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to near $4,105, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher on the softer US Dollar (USD).  Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Monday. The Fed’s John Williams, Philip Jefferson, Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller are set to speak. 

Improved market sentiment after the federal government reopened undermined the safe-haven assets, such as the Gold price. The US government has reopened after US President Donald Trump signed a funding bill into law last week, ending the longest shutdown in US history, which lasted 43 days. Federal employees were directed to return to work on Thursday. 

However, investors continue to grapple with uncertainty over the release of delayed economic data following the record-long shutdown. Analysts believe that the resumption of US economic data will show job market weakness and a potential slowdown. This, in turn, could weigh on the Greenback and lift the USD-denominated commodity price. Non-yielding yellow metal tends to perform well during periods of economic uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment.

The upside for the yellow metal might be limited due to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, dimming hopes for a December interest rate cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid said on Friday that monetary policy should “lean against demand growth,” adding that current Fed policy is “modestly restrictive,” which he believes is appropriate. 

Financial markets are now pricing in a nearly 54% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 62.9% probability that markets priced in earlier last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.