At 16:14 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.447, down $0.023 or -0.66%.
Can Natural Gas Hold Its Gains Despite Low Weather Demand?
Mild early-fall temperatures are weighing on national demand. According to NatGasWeather, the northern two-thirds of the U.S. are experiencing unseasonably warm conditions, with highs in the upper 60s to 80s. The South remains warmer, reaching into the 90s in some areas. While this setup limits Heating Degree Days, Cooling Degree Days are running slightly above average. Still, overall U.S. demand remains light for the first week of October.
However, demand is not quite as weak as models had indicated late last week, partially supporting the price recovery. Traders are pricing in a more balanced outlook, with short-covering likely contributing to the rally after several weeks of choppy trade.
Will the U.S. Government Shutdown Disrupt Energy Market Data?
A new risk emerged Wednesday as a partial U.S. government shutdown began, following a standoff between former President Trump’s allies and Senate Democrats. While the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release its weekly natural gas storage report on schedule, traders remain on alert for possible delays in upcoming data that could cloud market signals and create volatility.
In the meantime, traders are awaiting fresh EIA inventory data, after last week’s report showed a build of +75 Bcf — just above expectations but still slightly below the 5-year average. Inventories remain well supplied, sitting +6.1% above seasonal norms.
Is Colder Weather on the Horizon Enough to Sustain the Rally?
Weather models are starting to shift, with forecasts from Atmospheric G2 suggesting cooler trends in the West between October 6–10, and a broader cool risk developing nationwide for October 10–14. This potential boost to heating demand may offer further upside if confirmed.
Silver retreated from session lows sub-$46.00 after rejection above $47.00.
Precious metals are correcting lower on Tuesday as the US Dollar sell-off stalls.
XAG/USD’s bears are pushing against the $46.00 support area at the time of writing.
Silver (XAG/USD) has snapped a three-day rally on Tuesday, as the pair failed to consolidate at levels beyond $47.00, and retreated to session lows below $45.80, before returning to levels right above the $46.00 line
Precious metals are correcting lower from long-term highs on Tuesday. Investors remain wary about a potential shutdown of the federal government, but the US Dollar sell-off seen in previous days has stalled.
Technical Analysis: Silver is in a bearish correction from long-term highs
Everything that goes up must come down, and Silver is not different. The technical picture shows a healthy bearish correction in progress, with the 4-Hour Relative Strength Index coming down from strongly overbought levels.
A reverse trendline resistance is acting as support in the area of the September 29 lows, between $45.90 and $46.10, holding bears for now. Further down, the previous long-term highs, at $45.30 (September 25 high) and $44.45 (September 23 high) would come into focus. To the upside, immediate resistance lies at Tuesday’s high. to $47.15.Beyond here, e, Fibonacci tool shows the 161.8% extension of the September 17-23 bullish run, at $49.15.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The United States government ran out of funding, data releases delays.
The ADP Employment Change report came in much worse than anticipated in September.
XAU/USD retreats from record highs, retains the bullish bias.
Spot Gold peaked at $3,895.29 on Wednesday, a fresh all-time high. The bright metal rallied on news that the United States (US) government effectively shut down on Wednesday, as Congress was unable to agree on a funding bill. The US Dollar (USD) fell against all major rivals, with safe-haven assets benefiting the most.
Republicans and Democrats have different views on how to re-fund the federal government, and the irreconcilable differences persist. Mid-Wednesday, the Senate voted once again not to advance the Democratic-backed resolution to fund the government for a few weeks.
Meanwhile, US data was mixed. On the one hand, ADP released the Employment Change report, which showed the private sector lost 32,000 job positions in September, much worse than the 50,000 gain anticipated by market participants. The report also reported a 3,000 position loss in August, downwardly revised from a previously reported 54,000 increase.
On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in slightly better than anticipated, printing at 49.1 in September vs expectations of 49 and the previous 48.7.
The dismal mood eased after Wall Street’s opening, as stocks shrugged off concerns. The three major indexes trade in the green, weighing on the bright metal. The XAU/USD pair also retreated on modest USD demand.
Most of the US data scheduled for the rest of the risk will hardly see the light if the shutdown persists. In such a scenario, then, Gold is likely to remain attractive and challenge the $4,000 mark.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
XAU/USD trades around $3,870, and technical readings in the daily chart show that it keeps posting higher highs, in line with the dominant bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at extreme readings, ticking marginally higher at around 81 but mostly flat. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, resumed its advance above its 100 line, with plenty of room to advance. Finally, the pair keeps rallying above all bullish moving averages, with the nearest being the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,699.
The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has corrected overbought readings, while the risk remains skewed to the upside. The RSI indicator turned flat after easing sub-70, while the Momentum indicator still aims south, although well above its 100 line while losing downward steam. Finally, moving averages maintain their upward slopes well below the current level, with the 20 SMA providing support at around $3,828.
Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.
Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530
Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.
Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530
The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 22–26, 2025)
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The (ETHUSD) price settled with gains in its last intraday trading, amid the dominance of the bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, representing dynamic support that helps the price rise, with the positive divergence on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price move, with the emergence of the positive signals from them.
VIP Trading Signals Performance by BestTradingSignal.com (September 22–26, 2025)
Get high-accuracy trading signals delivered directly to your Telegram. Subscribe to specialized packages tailored for the world’s top markets:
Full VIP signals performance report for September 22–26, 2025:
Gold hangs close to fresh record highs above $3,870 early Wednesday.
US Dollar consolidates the downside on US government shutdown concerns.
Technically, Gold eyes more gains with the four-hourly RSI still within the bullish zone.
Gold keeps its record-setting rally intact early Wednesday, consolidating near lifetime highs above $3,870 as the United States (US) heads for an imminent government shutdown.
Gold capitalizes on US shutdown, delay in payrolls report
Kicking off the final quarter of 2025 on a bullish note, Gold buyers refuse to give up and flex their muscles as the US government funding expires at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the Republicans and Democrats unlikely to strike a last-minute interim deal.
The last government shutdown stretched from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days – during US President Donald Trump’s first term.
The immediate effect of a government shutdown will likely be the delay in the monthly labor market report, scheduled for this Friday, which is critical for the markets to gauge whether the US Federal Reserve will remain on track for two additional interest rate cuts this year.
Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut later this month, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
A likelihood of prolonged uncertainty on the US fiscal and monetary policy front is expected to rattle investors’ confidence in the US assets, including the US Dollar (USD), fuelling an increased rush to safety in the traditional safe haven Gold.
Meanwhile, the Greenback is also reeling from the pain of a mixed reading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The report showed US openings increased marginally by 19,000 in August, while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labor market.
All eyes now remain on the US government shutdown scenario and its likely impact on the broader market sentiment. If a shutdown happens, the US private sector payrolls by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will hog the limelight on Wednesday, in the absence of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release this Friday.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI and speeches from Fed policymakers could also drive the sentiment around Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hourly chart
As observed on the four-hour chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the bullish territory, currently near 68.
Therefore, the leading indicator suggests that Gold still has more room to the upside, and that any dip could be quickly bought in.
However, if buyers refuse to give up, buyers yearn for acceptance above the $3,870 level on a daily closing basis to resume the bullish momentum.
The next topside hurdle is located at the $3,900 barrier as the hunt for the $4,000 mark remains on the radar.
Conversely, any retracement pullback could test the initial support at $3,806, the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA), below which the 50-SMA at $3,763 would be tested.
Deeper correction could target the September 24 low at $3,718, followed by the 100-SMA at $3,708.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
While strength has been confirmed, natural gas now confronts a decision zone. The ABCD measured move symmetry between the rising AB and CD legs aligns with the 100% projected target at $3.34. This creates the possibility of a pivot and pullback, especially since a lower gap remains unfilled and the market has yet to revisit the 20-Day and 50-Day moving averages for support. These moving averages, converging near $3.00, represent important levels to watch if selling pressure emerges.
Path Toward 200-Day Average
A strong daily close above today’s high could open the door to higher levels. The next upside zone lies near the 200-Day moving average at $3.49, reinforced by the 127.2% ABCD projection at $3.50. The overlap of multiple indicators at this level strengthens its potential importance as resistance. Before that target is reached, however, natural gas must break decisively above a descending trendline, a move that would further confirm strengthening demand.
Outlook
The interaction with the long-term uptrend line has turned into a bullish signal. A sustained close above the 200-Day average would mark a significant shift in trend dynamics and encourage further bullish momentum. Until then, the $3.25 level serves as immediate support, while the $3.34–$3.35 area defines the near-term decision point for traders.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Under Pressure After Saudi Signals Supply Hike
Crude benchmarks are retreating sharply, with West Texas Intermediate sliding 2.82% to $61.69 per barrel and Brent down 2.48% to $65.33. The drop was ignited by reports that Saudi Arabia is pressing OPEC+ ministers to accelerate the reinstatement of 1.66 million barrels per day of supply that had been cut under voluntary quotas. This proposal, now expected to dominate the upcoming OPEC+ virtual meeting, represents a strategic pivot from defending prices toward reclaiming market share, underscoring Riyadh’s willingness to test downside resilience in the oil market.
Inventory Builds in the U.S. Complicate OPEC+ Narrative
Fresh EIA data showed a 2.4 million barrel build in U.S. commercial crude stockpiles last week, defying expectations of a draw and amplifying pressure on prices. Refineries moving into seasonal maintenance reduced throughput, aggravating the supply overhang. Gasoline prices also reflected weakness, down nearly 2.85% to $1.95 per gallon. Together, these figures undermine the short-term bullish case and support the market’s view that a glut may form even if OPEC+ decides not to accelerate its supply hike.
Asia Buys the Dip While India Shifts Crude Mix
Lower prices are stimulating bargain hunting in Asia. Imports across the continent are rising, with India playing a pivotal role. The country’s top refiner, IOC, bypassed U.S. crude at its latest tender, instead securing West African and Middle Eastern barrels. This pivot reflects the narrow arbitrage between WTI and seaborne alternatives but also signals how pricing in Asia can quickly reshape flows. India continues to buy Russian oil aggressively, taking advantage of deepening discounts as Russia struggles with refining outages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Geopolitical and Structural Risks Add Volatility to CL=F and BZ=F
Oil’s weakness is not purely supply-driven. Ongoing geopolitical risk, from Venezuelan military confrontations in the Caribbean to Houthi missile activity near Saudi lanes, is simmering in the background. Yet the overriding narrative is excess supply, not disrupted flows. Analysts warn that if Brent breaks below $65 and WTI under $60, psychological thresholds could fuel momentum selling. ING projects OPEC+ will keep production unchanged, but Saxo Bank highlights a “floor” around current prices, arguing that disruptions in Iraq and Kazakhstan—both exceeding quotas—could cap downside. Still, Saudi Arabia’s push suggests the kingdom sees current demand elasticity as too fragile to support a rally, particularly with Chinese demand showing signs of slowing.
Medium-Term Outlook and Investment Implications
With OPEC+ having already unwound 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts this year, the market is now staring at the potential of another rapid flood of supply. The result is a widening consensus that oil could revisit levels not seen since 2021. Traders are now debating whether CL=F will retest $60, a level that could trigger U.S. shale producers to reconsider drilling programs, or whether Brent (BZ=F) stabilizes near $65 with support from Asian imports. For investors, the equation is clear: while supply-driven weakness creates a bearish short-term setup, any reversal in OPEC+ policy or geopolitical flare-up could flip sentiment instantly.
