• Gold remains rangebound between $3,300 and $3,450, caught in indecision as safe-haven bids and bearish technicals battle for control.
• While a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, initial violations and pending U.S.-Iran nuclear talks keep geopolitical risks alive.
• A confirmed break above $3,370 targets $3,400 next, while failure to hold $3,300 may drag Gold down to $3,250 or $3,200.

Gold side steps as uncertainty remains “uncertain”

Gold (XAU/USD) has not yet given any confirmation of momentum to the upside, stuck between the $3,450 and $3,300 levels as traders weigh opposing forces. After a strong rebound from last week’s lows near $3,300, the yellow metal has struggled to sustain momentum. The upside has been capped as inflation data cooled and Treasury yields steadied.

Currently, Gold is hovering at the discount level of the overall range, signaling a bearish environment. Though Gold is in a bearish territory, this is still not yet a confirmed reversal to the downside, most especially, the tensions in the middle east, Israel and Iran, has not yet fully de-escalated, giving Gold reason to push up.

Gold’s price action now reflects indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control ahead of high-impact events and amidst geopolitical tensions.

Bearish scenario on-point

This scenario was also outlined in my latest article on Gold, Gold stalls despite war headlines: Bullish and bearish scenarios to watch & Dollar, majors, indices and Gold gameplan for this week.

Before:

After:

The narrative behind this is that if the ceasefire gains traction and Iran steps back and opens door to diplomacy, risk appetite may rebound, dragging gold down. A clean break and close below $3,300 would open downside potential to the $3,250 level or even $3,200. Also, the rejection of the midrange acted as a technical catalyst that weighs Gold down.

U.S.-Iran Talks On The Way Trump announced U.S.–Iran talks scheduled for next week and mediated with Qatar’s help, focusing on nuclear and broader peace matters.

Qatar’s mediation was pivotal in securing Iran’s support for the ceasefire after discussing terms with both Tehran and President Trump.

Both sides acknowledged the truce, but initial violations were reported: Iran fired missiles at Beersheba and Israel responded with strikes on Iranian facilities – each accusing the other of breach.

Technical outlook

Bullish scenario

If Gold gains ground above the $3,330 level and a push through above the previous mid-range or equilibrium level, we might see further traction on Gold.

Another confluence that could lift Gold is if the tensions between Israel & Iran escalates and oil gets affect, this could raise safe-haven inflow on Gold.

Targets:

• $3,370 – Midrange Level.
• $3,400 – Psych Level / Immediate High.

Bearish scenario

If Gold does not get an upside follow-through with a series of bullish candles above $3,340, Dollar gains traction, which is unlikely for now, and Gold breaks below $3,310 – $3,300 level, this could send the bullion for a renewed downside.

Targets:

• $3,300 – Psych Level / Near Immediate Low.
• $3,250 – May 29 – Significant Low.

Final thoughts

While Gold remains fundamentally supported by long-term macro themes like central bank buying and inflation uncertainty, near-term direction will be decided by upcoming U.S. data and the Fed’s policy signals.

A breakout from the current range could provide a cleaner directional bias. Until then, patience is key.

A confirmed break on either side will likely invite strong momentum. Bias remains neutral to bullish unless $3,300-$3,400 is broken convincingly.

• Silver rebounds from $35.68, trades near $36.25 as month-end flows weigh on US Dollar.
• Bullish ‘morning star’ forms; RSI stays positive, signaling potential upward momentum.
• Resistance at $36.42 and $37.31; support at $35.29 and 50-day SMA at $33.95.

Silver price advances by nearly 1% on Wednesday, as the US Dollar depreciates due to month-end flows, along with expectations of falling US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $36.25, after bouncing off daily lows of $35.68.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Analysis

Even though Silver dipped to a new two-week low of $35.29 last Friday, the grey metal found bids, which pushed the spot price above $36.00 and formed a ‘morning star’ three-candle chart bullish pattern. Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained flat in bullish territory, suggesting that the pair is neutral to upwardly biased. If XAG/USD clears key resistance levels, then the uptrend could resume.

The first key area of interest will be the June 20 high of $36.42. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $37.00, followed by the multi-year high of $37.31.

On the flip side, if XAG/USD tumbles below the June 24 low of $35.29, expect a pullback all the way towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $33.95.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Pfizer’s stock price (PFE) rose in latest intraday trading and tackled the pivotal resistance of $24.50, amid the dominance of the upward correctional wave in the short term, with ongoing positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA, coupled with positive divergence from the Stochastic after reaching oversold levels compared to the stock’s movements. 

Therefore we expect the stock to rise as long as it breaches the aforementioned resistance of $24.50, targeting the next one at $26.50.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

Key Dynamic Support Being Tested

Nevertheless, what happens next will be more revealing. Dynamic support for the intermediate uptrend, beginning from January, is being tested. Gold needs to recover from support around the 50-Day MA if it is to retain the current trajectory. A decline below Tuesday’s low of $3,295 puts it at risk of dropping below an interim swing low at $3,293, which is part of the near-term uptrend that began following a test of support at the 50-Day MA. Other lower price levels that subsequently could see signs of support include the intersection of an uptrend and downtrend line (blue) around $3,272. There is also a top rising trend channel line (purple) crossing at the same point. Then, a little lower is a prior interim swing low at $3,245.

Several Lines Converge

The purple rising channel represents the upswing that began from the October 2023 lows. A decisive bull breakout of the channel triggered on April 10, followed by a retracement that successfully tested the price area around the line as support. The current pullback is a second test of support near the top purple channel line.

It represents a longer trend than a shorter rising trend channel (blue) that began from the January lows. The point of highlighting where the three lines meet is that a decline below $3,272 will mean that both a downtrend line and top channel line have been broken. If price then stays below that price level, it will confirm the bearish sentiment.

Strength Needed Above $3,370

Alternatively, support around the 50-Day MA holds and leads to a bullish reversal. An early sign of strength would be seen on a rally above today’s high, however, that would not be convincing enough to confirm a bullish reversal. Rather, a decisive rally above Tuesday’s high of $3,370 would be needed.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Drop Below 4-Week Support

On a weekly basis, this week’s decline put the price of natural gas at a four-week low, confirming a bearish reversal following last week’s trend high of $4.15. The decline below the lower uptrend line shows the potential for a bearish continuation as the current uptrend shows early signs of possible failure. However, there is also a good chance that support will be seen around the 200-Day MA and lead to a bullish reversal. Today is the fourth consecutive day of declines and bearish momentum started near last week’s high. So, there is a chance that selling momentum will decline. Although there is no sign of it yet.

Measured Move Support Completion of Correction

It is also interesting to note that the prior bearish correction that followed the initial rally from the April swing low saw the price of natural gas decline by $0.74 (or 19.3%). That puts the current decline close to a match as it has led to a drop of as much as $0.78 (or 18.9%). When comparing price, the current decline exceeded the previous decline, but natural gas is now very close to matching on a percentage basis. Once there are similar swings, there is the potential for support to be seen.

Weekly Closing to Provide Clue

Since there are only two more trading days for the week, there is a risk that natural gas confirms the recent bearish signals on a weekly basis. As noted above, support for the past several weeks was broken this week. The lower and therefore more significant weekly low was at $3.45, while last week’s low was $3.63.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,333.87

• An extended truce in the Middle East maintains financial markets optimistic.
• The United States will release the final estimate of the Q1 GDP on Thursday.
• XAU/USD holds on to familiar levels near weekly lows, resistance at $3,355.30.

Spot Gold spent Wednesday stuck around the $3,320 mark, with financial markets lacking a fresh catalyst. The XAU/USD managed to advance during the American session amid broad US Dollar weakness, but held within familiar levels ahead of the Asian opening.

Investors maintain their optimism as the Middle East ceasefire seems to be holding. Easing tensions, however, do not mean the conflict is over. According to some leaked documents, recent attacks on the Iranian nuclear program just delayed Iran’s plans by a few months. Israel, on the contrary, believes the setback reached many years.

United States (US) President Donald Trump, in the meantime, noted that the country’s nuclear capabilities have been “obliterated,” according to Reuters. At the same time, Tehran’s atomic chief, Mohammad Eslami, said that they would restore their nuclear program.

Beyond geopolitical woes, market players eyed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on monetary policy. On his second day at Congress, Powell repeated most of what he said on Tuesday, noting that inflation expectations have come down a bit from April, although he is still willing to wait to see the impact of tariffs on prices before acting.

Thursday will bring some relevant US data, as the country releases May Durable Goods Orders and the final estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it holds at the lower end of Tuesday’s range, although further retreating from its weekly low. The same chart shows technical indicators have turned flat within neutral levels, reflecting the latest bounce rather than suggesting additional gains ahead. The pair would face immediate resistance at around a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $3,355.30. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firm bullish slopes well below the current level, keeping the long-term trend alive.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD keeps finding near-term support at around a directionless 200 SMA, while the 20 and 100 SMAs maintain modest downward slopes above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have turned flat within negative levels after correcting oversold conditions, suggesting buyers have limited power at the time being.

Support levels: 3,311.90 3,295.45 3,279.20

Resistance levels: 3,355.30 3,374.45 3,389.40

• Silver (XAG/USD) trims losses near $35.80 after hitting an intraday low of $35.28 on Tuesday.
• Last week’s surge to 13-year highs fueled by safe-haven flows and tight supply now faces healthy profit-taking.
• Spot price tests critical rising trendline and 21-day EMA support near $35.50–$35.60.

Silver (XAG/USD) reverses course during the American session on Tuesday after spending most of the day drifting lower from an intraday high of $36.20. At the time of writing, the metal is trading near $35.80, slightly above the session low of $35.28, but still down around 0.65% on the day as traders test key trendline support.

Last week, Silver pushed to fresh 13-year highs as investors flocked to the metal for its safe-haven appeal. Strong industrial demand and tightening supply added fuel to the surge. However, the momentum has cooled since then, with the recent dip reflecting healthy profit-taking and reduced liquidity in the market.

From a technical perspective, Silver’s daily chart remains constructive but is flashing early signs of fatigue. Tuesday’s drop pulled XAG/USD back toward its rising trendline support, which has guided the uptrend since mid-April. This trendline, reinforced by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $35.50–$35.60, has repeatedly acted as a springboard for fresh buying.

A decisive daily close below this zone would raise the risk of a deeper correction, potentially exposing the next key support around $34.50 — a former resistance level now expected to act as a solid floor if the pullback deepens.

Momentum indicators highlight this tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 56.50, down from recent overbought conditions but still comfortably above the neutral 50 level, suggesting the broader trend retains a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has shifted marginally negative, indicating a waning upward momentum in the near term. Price action shows repeated long lower wicks on recent candles, underscoring that bulls continue to step in aggressively on dips.

If Silver manages to sustain a bounce from current levels, the rally could regain traction toward $36.50, with a potential extension toward the psychological $37.00 barrier if buying pressure intensifies.

Despite the stability of the GBPAUD price within the main bullish channel’s levels, its repeated fluctuations below the extra resistance at 2.1040 decelerates its bullish attempts, which forces it to provide new sideways fluctuation by its stability near 2.0960, while the unionism of providing positive momentum by the main indicators makes us monitor the price behavior until achieving the required breach, to ease the mission of targeting the positive stations near 2.1090 and 2.1140.

The risk of changing the bullish trend in the current trading by reaching below 2.0870 level and providing negative close, which increase the chances for forming new bearish correctional trading, which forces it to suffer 

The expected trading range for today is between 2.9030 and 2.1090

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price failed to breach the $4,8900 level, which represents an extra obstacle against the attempts to resume the bullish attack, forcing it to provide sideways fluctuation near $4.8600, attempting to gather the required positive momentum.

Therefore, we will keep waiting for achieving the required breach, to open the way towards recording more of the gains that begin at $5.0300 and $5.1300, while the failure to breach might increase the chances of forming a temporary negative rebound, to expect targeting $4.7500 level before any attempt to achieve any of the suggested bullish targets. 

The expected trading range for today is between $4.8200 and $4.9000

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach

• Silver price trades with mild gains around $35.95 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
• The weaker US Dollar provides some support to the USD-denominated Silver. 
• The risk-on mood due to easing Middle East tension might cap the XAG/USD’s upside. 

The Silver price (XAG/USD) posts modest gains near $35.95 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the USD-denominated commodity price. Traders brace for Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell testifies later on Wednesday.

US consumer confidence fell again in June amid uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that the US Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 93 in June, below the market consensus. The downbeat US economic data drag the US Dollar lower and benefit the Silver price. 

On the other hand, the truce between Iran and Israel appeared to hold, with both sides saying they would honor the ceasefire if the other side did the same. Investors expect a truce between both countries will reduce the fears of wider war, which dampens the alternative safe-haven assets like Silver. 

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country would strike again if Iran rebuilds its nuclear project. Any signs of escalation could boost the white metal in the near term.